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The giant mistake that was signing Jacoby Ellsbury

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...becomes clearer and clearer each day. We're stuck with this player until 2020. You can already see his speed has diminished and with it any value he has. Speed he used to hide the terrible routes he took in CF. Sure Sox fans can attest to that.

Here are thoughts the day we signed him (http://www.jetsinsider.org/forums/threads/261748-Yankees-sign-Jacoby-Ellsbury)

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I've never been big on signing players to long term deals who's biggest asset is their speed. Especially one who's always hurt.

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The more I look at it the less I like it. This guy isn't a $153 million player. I didn't want to overpay Cano, but now I'm going to be furious if we don't sign him after overpaying an inferior player.

 

 

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Great news for the DeGrom family!!!

 

Jacob deGrom’s son ‘doing better,’ may leave hospital soon

 
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Stacey and Jacob deGromPhoto: Stacey deGrom's Facebook

CLEVELAND — Jacob deGrom might finally get to exhale from what had to be a stressful week.

The Mets pitcher, according to manager Terry Collins, may get to take home his newborn son, Jaxon, from the hospital as soon as Monday. DeGrom was placed on the bereavement/family emergency list Saturdaybecause of “complications” the baby was facing.

“[Saturday] I talked to [deGrom] and the baby is doing better, so that was a good sign,” Collins said before the Mets beat the Indians 6-0 at Progressive Field. “I just told Jake he needs to get some rest and mix in a meal.”

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DeGrom threw a bullpen session Sunday in Port St. Lucie and reported no problems with his previously bothersome right lat, according to Collins. The right-hander is expected to throw a simulated game on Tuesday as Logan Verrett takes his spot in the rotation in Philadelphia.

The Mets have until Saturday to add deGrom back to the roster. Eric Campbell was added after deGrom was placed on the bereavement/family emergency list.

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Oops.  wrong thread.  haha

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Oops.  wrong thread.  haha

Thought you were bringing some good news to a bad thread.

It's a bad deal.  Guy had one great season, years ago.  Now he is a below average player who doesn't steal, doesn't get on base, makes a ton of money, and is signed for a LONG time.

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Just now, chirorob said:

Thought you were bringing some good news to a bad thread.

It's a bad deal.  Guy had one great season, years ago.  Now he is a below average player who doesn't steal, doesn't get on base, makes a ton of money, and is signed for a LONG time.

I'm a Mets fan.  I konw all about this type of stuff.  Your turn to SUFFER!!!!  

hahaha

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17 minutes ago, JiF said:

I'm a Mets fan.  I konw all about this type of stuff.  Your turn to SUFFER!!!!  

hahaha

Happens.   I wouldn't call it suffering, they aren't going to win 60 games, but its not the late 90s anymore.

Hey, you guys got a nice window, lot of young cheap pitching.   You can make some serious noise with that for a few years.

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19 minutes ago, chirorob said:

Happens.   I wouldn't call it suffering, they aren't going to win 60 games, but its not the late 90s anymore.

Hey, you guys got a nice window, lot of young cheap pitching.   You can make some serious noise with that for a few years.

It's the Mets, so you have to temper expectations but yes, I'm very excited about the foundation of this team. 

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On 4/17/2016 at 6:17 PM, Tyler Durden said:

 

...becomes clearer and clearer each day. We're stuck with this player until 2020. You can already see his speed has diminished and with it any value he has. Speed he used to hide the terrible routes he took in CF. Sure Sox fans can attest to that.

Here are thoughts the day we signed him (http://www.jetsinsider.org/forums/threads/261748-Yankees-sign-Jacoby-Ellsbury)

Last year I was at a September game at Fenway and Jacoby tried to throw the ball to the fans on the Monster and was a tad short..about 15 feet short.

You nailed it.  His game is predicated on speed.  If he has lost a step, he is not as good.  The Yankees way overpaid for him.

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When they signed him I was speechless because of the contract details.

Years later, I still have no words.

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Meanwhile Cano has 6 home runs in 15 games

And is hitting .246.

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10 hours ago, The Troll said:

And is hitting .246

...with an .889 OPS, the league lead in HRs, and his usual defense up the middle. Not quite hitting for a higher batting average, but pretty great.

 

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On April 23, 2016 at 4:26 PM, SenorGato said:

...with an .889 OPS, the league lead in HRs, and his usual defense up the middle. Not quite hitting for a higher batting average, but pretty great.

 

And doing it in the worst home run hitter stadium in the mlb even worse than citifield

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...with an .889 OPS, the league lead in HRs, and his usual defense up the middle. Not quite hitting for a higher batting average, but pretty great.

 

His OPS is still below his Yankee levels and he's signed for $24 million a year through 2023. No Yankee fans should be filled with regret that they aren't paying Cano 192 million from now until he's 40.

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And doing it in the worst home run hitter stadium in the mlb even worse than citifield

He has one homerun at Safeco and five on the road.

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5 hours ago, The Troll said:

His OPS is still below his Yankee levels and he's signed for $24 million a year through 2023. No Yankee fans should be filled with regret that they aren't paying Cano 192 million from now until he's 40.

Bold: Yeah, no it's not. His career OPS is .850. EVEN THEN this is a completely different offensive era from his earliest years *and* a completely different park from LHH friendly Yankee Stadium.

Italics: So what? Why does listing his salary make him overpaid? That stuff can fly in the NFL world where it's way harder to accurately quantify individual and league performance. The MLB is a whole different animal, there's tons of info. He's been worth that and more since signing - if anything the Mariners have gotten a steal.

Cano would be a slam dunk HOF with the Yankees and still has a very serious shot with the Mariners. The Yankees' dipsh*t second gen ownership went in a different (read: cheaper, more profitable) direction that basically has made the Yankees as irrelevant as they can be for a half decade. It sucks for their fans, but I can imagine that the modern sports fan isn't too torn up about it with so much focus on their perceptions of what salaries and payrolls should be.

 

 

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Bold: Yeah, no it's not. His career OPS is .850. EVEN THEN this is a completely different offensive era from his earliest years *and* a completely different park from LHH friendly Yankee Stadium.

Italics: So what? Why does listing his salary make him overpaid? That stuff can fly in the NFL world where it's way harder to accurately quantify individual and league performance. The MLB is a whole different animal, there's tons of info. He's been worth that and more since signing - if anything the Mariners have gotten a steal.

Cano would be a slam dunk HOF with the Yankees and still has a very serious shot with the Mariners. The Yankees' dipsh*t second gen ownership went in a different (read: cheaper, more profitable) direction that basically has made the Yankees as irrelevant as they can be for a half decade. It sucks for their fans, but I can imagine that the modern sports fan isn't too torn up about it with so much focus on their perceptions of what salaries and payrolls should be.

 

 

Bold: Man, if only there were a statistic that took park factors and the offensive environment as a whole into account. If there were, I think they should call it OPS+, and I think it would show that Cano is a 33 year old that's already entered his decline phase. I wish someone would come up with that.

Italics: This entire thread is about a player being overpaid.

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1 minute ago, The Troll said:

Bold: Man, if only there were a statistic that took park factors and the offensive environment as a whole into account. If there were, I think they should call it OPS+, and I think it would show that Cano is a 33 year old that's already entered his decline phase. I wish someone would come up with that.

Italics: This entire thread is about a player being overpaid.

Cano 2016: 148 OPS+

Cano career: 127 OPS+

Sooooo....there that one goes too.

That couldn't have less to do with anything. Stating a player's salary does not make a player overpaid.

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Cano 2016: 148 OPS+

Cano career: 127 OPS+

Sooooo....there that one goes too.

That couldn't have less to do with anything. Stating a player's salary does not make a player overpaid.

His OPS+ this year is 131. You are aware that adjusts in season, yes? I don't really care what it was on Friday, ya know?

Three weeks isn't much of a sample size. If the data acquired thus far in 2016 is to be believed, Cano has traded in the average he's always had for the power he once had in New York. But, I'm sure things will correct themselves over time and we'll pretty much see what we saw last year: a still good, no longer great player.

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21 minutes ago, The Troll said:

His OPS+ this year is 131. You are aware that adjusts in season, yes? I don't really care what it was on Friday, ya know?

Three weeks isn't much of a sample size. If the data acquired thus far in 2016 is to be believed, Cano has traded in the average he's always had for the power he once had in New York. But, I'm sure things will correct themselves over time and we'll pretty much see what we saw last year: a still good, no longer great player.

All that is is my bbref page not updating yet, and *even then* he's still above his career average.148 OPS+ would be entering Sunday and not Friday, so there goes another one.

Three weeks is plenty for you to jump on relatively uninformative stats like batting average and OPS+. If the data from 2016 is to be believed, Cano's on pace for yet another elite season. Oh and in his mere mortal year last year he put up .331/.387/.540 over his final 305 PAs. Just stop already....you've gotten maybe 2 facts right in this whole convo, one is only because the bbref page updated literally during this conversation and didn't help you out anyway.

     

 

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All that is is my bbref page not updating yet, and *even then* he's still above his career average.148 OPS+ would be entering Sunday and not Friday, so there goes another one.

Three weeks is plenty for you to jump on relatively uninformative stats like batting average and OPS+. If the data from 2016 is to be believed, Cano's on pace for yet another elite season. Oh and in his mere mortal year last year he put up .331/.387/.540 over his final 305 PAs. Just stop already....you've gotten maybe 2 facts right in this whole convo, one is only because the bbref page updated literally during this conversation and didn't help you out anyway.

     
 

Sure, guy. I had his page open in a tab on my laptop. It didn't refresh.

His BABIP is extremely low, but the advanced stats show that he's hitting the ball in the air FAR more than he ever has. Like enough to suggest that perhaps what I suggested in a previous post is true. He IS trading in average for more power. His flyball rate is 43.5%. Career is 30.1%. The last two years it's been 24.7 and 25.3. Sure sounds like a change in approach to me. But, hey, it's three weeks into the season. We'll see what happens. All I know is that the Robinson Cano that played for the Yankees ain't walking through that door.

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28 minutes ago, The Troll said:

Sure, guy. I had his page open in a tab on my laptop. It didn't refresh.

His BABIP is extremely low, but the advanced stats show that he's hitting the ball in the air FAR more than he ever has. Like enough to suggest that perhaps what I suggested in a previous post is true. He IS trading in average for more power. His flyball rate is 43.5%. Career is 30.1%. The last two years it's been 24.7 and 25.3. Sure sounds like a change in approach to me. But, hey, it's three weeks into the season. We'll see what happens. All I know is that the Robinson Cano that played for the Yankees ain't walking through that door.

Lol sorry, is the guy who didn't know 131 > 126 and Friday =/= Sunday trying to spin my honest mistake into me telling a big lie? I guess it's worth the shot, no cheaper or lazier than any of the other nonsense already attempted.

I have no idea what your point is in the second paragraph is, but trading average for power isn't a bad thing. In fact, doing that while still maintaining his elite contact skills is a really awesome start. That said, nice to see the step back from overpaid to just not the exact same guy he was with the Yankees. Whether he is or isn't has nothing to do with him being overpaid. He's still an elite player, and that's literally all that matters.

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Lol sorry, is the guy who didn't know 131 > 126 and Friday =/= Sunday trying to spin my honest mistake into me telling a big lie? I guess it's worth the shot, no cheaper or lazier than any of the other nonsense already attempted.

I have no idea what your point is in the second paragraph is, but trading average for power isn't a bad thing. In fact, doing that while still maintaining his elite contact skills is a really awesome start. That said, nice to see the step back from overpaid to just not the exact same guy he was with the Yankees. Whether he is or isn't has nothing to do with him being overpaid. He's still an elite player, and that's literally all that matters.

You got me. Your point is totally made by the fact that he lost 17 points in OPS+ over one weekend. Because, hey, after three weeks, it's still a whole five points over his career norm. Talk to me in six months.

I didn't step back from anything. Don't quote me, boy. I ain't said sh*t. The Mariners paid for an elite player. They haven't gotten one. They won't get one. That makes him overpaid. Why are you even arguing this to begin with since you seem to be of the opinion that there's no such thing as overpaid? Because oh, baseball has no salary cap and it doesn't matter anyway and most fans are too stupid to see it the same way as the brilliant Señor Toro. There's no such as a bad contract! You can't overpay a baseball player!

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1 hour ago, The Troll said:

You got me. Your point is totally made by the fact that he lost 17 points in OPS+ over one weekend. Because, hey, after three weeks, it's still a whole five points over his career norm. Talk to me in six months.

I didn't step back from anything. Don't quote me, boy. I ain't said sh*t. The Mariners paid for an elite player. They haven't gotten one. They won't get one. That makes him overpaid. Why are you even arguing this to begin with since you seem to be of the opinion that there's no such thing as overpaid? Because oh, baseball has no salary cap and it doesn't matter anyway and most fans are too stupid to see it the same way as the brilliant Señor Toro. There's no such as a bad contract! You can't overpay a baseball player!

Bold: One day and not one weekend. You're not one for details are you? Anyway, you came in knocking the guy for his early season batting average, and now you're lecturing me about sample size? That is adorable.

Italics: While it's great to have opinions and all, this is still a wrong one. Unfortunately for you and your argument, saying things and then restating them doesn't actually make it the reality. You were better off backing away from your original opinion than trying to put together that lame narrative in the second paragraph waaaaaaay to late. You should have probably played that card long before clumsily attempting to use the stats, which don't even kinda sorta a little bit back your opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

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Bold: One day, you're not one for details are you? Anyway, you came in knocking the guy for his early season batting average, and now you're lecturing me about sample size? That is adorable.

Italics: While it's great to have opinions and all like an big person, this is still a wrong one. Unfortunately for you and your argument, saying things and then restating them doesn't actually make it the reality. You were better off backing away from your original opinion than trying to put together that lame narrative in the second paragraph waaaaaaay to late. You should have probably played that card long before clumsily attempting to use the stats, which don't even kinda sorta a little bit back your opinion.

 

 

 

 

 

Bold: He had a mediocre season last year. At age 32. It's going to take more than three weeks of good power numbers to convince me he's "still an elite player", particularly while his average hovers around the Mendoza line.

Italics: Have you ever been right about anything? The main arguments I remember having with you here are a)Kyle Schwarber won't be good against major league pitching, and b)Andre Johnson was a great signing by the Colts. So, hey, I'm batting 1.000 against you.

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25 minutes ago, The Troll said:

Bold: He had a mediocre season last year. At age 32. It's going to take more than three weeks of good power numbers to convince me he's "still an elite player", particularly while his average hovers around the Mendoza line.

Italics: Have you ever been right about anything? The main arguments I remember having with you here are a)Kyle Schwarber won't be good against major league pitching, and b)Andre Johnson was a great signing by the Colts. So, hey, I'm batting 1.000 against you.

- Yeah, no he didn't. Again, repeating things doesn't make it true. He had a mediocre season for Robinson Cano, an above average one for a normal ML. On top of that, for most of it (July-September) he was one of the best hitters in baseball as usual.

- I can't find it anything but adorable that you came in mentioning his batting average as proof of his decline three weeks into the season, but the HRs should be dismissed because science stuff and things. It's a sign of what I'm up against, which is some casual baseball fan with a dumb opinion (ho hum). Your argument couldn't possibly make less sense or be built on shakier ground, which explains why so much of these past two posts you've made are dedicated to keeping it away from baseball. 

- It's a little pathetic that you feel cornered enough to make things up, but then again it's not much more sad than building a baseball argument in 2016 around early season batting average.

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- Yeah, no he didn't. Again, repeating things doesn't make it true. He had a mediocre season for Robinson Cano, an above average one for a normal ML. On top of that, for most of it (July-September) he was one of the best hitters in baseball as usual.

- I can't find it anything but adorable that you came in mentioning his batting average as proof of his decline three weeks into the season, but the HRs should be dismissed because science stuff and things. It's a sign of what I'm up against, which is some casual baseball fan with a dumb opinion (ho hum). Your argument couldn't possibly make less sense or be built on shakier ground, which explains why so much of these past two posts you've made are dedicated to keeping it away from baseball. 

- It's a little pathetic that you feel cornered enough to make things up, but then again it's not much more sad than building a baseball argument in 2016 around early season batting average.

Because the last two posts I've responded to haven't been about baseball. They've been posts where you're just being a condescending prick. I'm done with this. I'll bump it later this year. And then once a year through 2023.

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13 minutes ago, The Troll said:

Because the last two posts I've responded to haven't been about baseball. They've been posts where you're just being a condescending prick. I'm done with this. I'll bump it later this year. And then once a year through 2023.

You were done this morning to be honest, no clue why you came back for seconds. You were done when you came in talking about early season batting average as proof of decline. I have zero sympathy for your victim card, you got condescending prick because as far as I remember this is how we address each other.

I await those bumps and your clumsily supported opinions with bated breath, for sure. If they're anything like the gems above we should all be in for a real treat. He better hit for a high batting average in 2023, otherwise they overpaid!

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You were done this morning to be honest, no clue why you came back for seconds. You were done when you came in talking about early season batting average as proof of decline. I have zero sympathy for your victim card, you got condescending prick because as far as I remember this is how we address each other.

I await those bumps and your clumsily supported opinions with bated breath, for sure. If they're anything like the gems above we should all be in for a real treat. He better hit for a high batting average in 2023, otherwise they overpaid!

Okay douchebag, riddle me this: has he hit for power his first two years in Seattle? Did he post his lowest batting average since 2008 last season?

I wonder which small sample size is more reliable. The year and three weeks of sagging batting average that I'm a complete moron for citing or the three week (really one week. Or half of one week. He hit four homers in the first three games of the year.) sample size of power that you cited.

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1 hour ago, The Troll said:

Okay douchebag, riddle me this: has he hit for power his first two years in Seattle? Did he post his lowest batting average since 2008 last season?

I wonder which small sample size is more reliable. The year and three weeks of sagging batting average that I'm a complete moron for citing or the three week (really one week. Or half of one week. He hit four homers in the first three games of the year.) sample size of power that you cited.

- Those aren't riddles.

- The answer to both questions is yes. The league has maybe SLG'd .400 since he signed with them, including .386(!!) in 2014. He has put up a .453 SLG with the Mariners. Yes, last year was his lowest batting average since 2008. Why you think that is a thing is beyond me.

- You really should stop with the batting average nonsense, it's probably the most embarrassing part of what you're doing in this one. Even then, Cano hit .332 in the second half last year (305 PAs) with a .540 SLG and 15 HRs. Hell, dig a little deeper than first half/second half splits and he hit .300/.349/.489 with 43 XBHs, including 20 HRs, over his final 484 PAs. You really have no legs here. Stop trying to stand, especially with a sh*tty crutch like batting average doing all the work.

 

 

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Gotta love how a thread about the disaster that is Jacoby Ellsbury turns into a thread about Robinson Cano.

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On ‎4‎/‎17‎/‎2016 at 7:17 PM, Tyler Durden said:

 

...becomes clearer and clearer each day. We're stuck with this player until 2020. You can already see his speed has diminished and with it any value he has. Speed he used to hide the terrible routes he took in CF. Sure Sox fans can attest to that.

Here are thoughts the day we signed him (http://www.jetsinsider.org/forums/threads/261748-Yankees-sign-Jacoby-Ellsbury)

Chase Headley has been a pretty crappy move as well. Not nearly as bad financially but possibly was one of the most overrated players in the game at the time the Yanks brought him onboard.

 

 

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On ‎4‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 9:54 PM, adb280z said:

Gotta love how a thread about the disaster that is Jacoby Ellsbury turns into a thread about Robinson Cano.

We signed Ellsbury and Beltran instead of resigning Cano.

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On ‎4‎/‎26‎/‎2016 at 8:44 PM, The Troll said:

Okay douchebag, riddle me this: has he hit for power his first two years in Seattle? Did he post his lowest batting average since 2008 last season?

I wonder which small sample size is more reliable. The year and three weeks of sagging batting average that I'm a complete moron for citing or the three week (really one week. Or half of one week. He hit four homers in the first three games of the year.) sample size of power that you cited.

Safeco is the worst hitters park in the entire MLB even worse than the Grand Canyon Citifield.  Its dimensions suck and it's always raining or drizzling and it's also always windy due to proximity to the Puget Sound.  Cano in Yankee stadium previous 2 seasons is probably good for 20-30hrs and 100+ rbi's per.

 

 

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