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Bryce Petty must really stink


Ex-Rex

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Don't snooze on Bryce just yet.  In fact, the Jets have said almost nothing about his progress.  It could just be they are taking the under-promise/over-deliver approach with their young QB.  In any event, there is nothing here but fan-generated conjecture about his progress.  Too early to call in either direction.

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In another thread someone posted a really great article elucidating the extremely low statistical probability that any QB drafted from late round one on down will be a good starter.  There are several notable exceptions, Brady, wilson, even 2nd round guys like dalton and Carr but they are very much the exception.

i don't think it's an indictment on Petty just simple pragmatism of not putting all your eggs in one basket, especially one with an extreme historically low probability of success.

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1 hour ago, Adoni Beast said:

Yeah. Which is why you see after this or next year and restructure his deal before its up, if you like where he's at. Eagles drafted Wentz with the intent of having him sit for a year or two. And thats the second pick of the first round. We got Bryce in the 4th. If he's a viable backup for 6 years its a successful pick.

Don't really understand the Wentz comparison.  Wentz will sit at the most a year, and the odds are probably against that.  Also, since Wentz will be a 1st round pick, they will have him PLAYING for 4 years.  Petty taking 3-4 years to be ready to be a viable back-up is not a successful pick when said pick could have been a starter or contributing player IMO.

 

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1 minute ago, legler82 said:

Don't really understand the Wentz comparison.  Wentz will sit at the most a year, and the odds are probably against that.  Also, since Wentz will be a 1st round pick, they will have him PLAYING for 4 years.  Petty taking 3-4 years to be ready to be a viable back-up is not a successful pick when said pick could have been a starter or contributing player IMO.

 

So then no one should ever draft a QB.  All QBs, whether they start immediately or not, need time to develop and become the player that you hope he become when you draft him. 

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10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So then no one should ever draft a QB.  All QBs, whether they start immediately or not, need time to develop and become the player that you hope he become when you draft him. 

They don't all take 3-4 years just to be a viable backup, which is what he said would be a waste. Frankly I agree.

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7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

So then no one should ever draft a QB.  All QBs, whether they start immediately or not, need time to develop and become the player that you hope he become when you draft him. 

I don't fault the front office for taking a flyer on a QB late in the draft.  At the same time, I'm not such a homer, that I would call using the length of a rookie contract to groom a "viable" back-up a successful pick.  I believe in the Packer's philosophy of taking a mid to late QB pretty much every year but accept the fact it comes with a very low success rate.

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2 minutes ago, legler82 said:

I don't fault the front office for taking a flyer on a QB late in the draft.  At the same time, I'm not such a homer, that I would call using the length of a rookie contract to groom a "viable" back-up a successful pick.  I believe in the Packer's philosophy of taking a mid to late QB pretty much every year but accept the fact it comes with a very low success rate.

Exactly. Fine to take a shot on him, but if it takes him basically his entire rookie contract just to be a viable backup then it was not a wise pick in hindsight. 

No big deal. No teams hit on all their picks.

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Oh, Jets fans and their infatuation with late project QBs...

We rolled the dice on Bryce... And he's lived up to his billing as a project at best. He could surprise this summer but I wouldn't hold you breath.

Good kid, but barely 50/50 to be on the roster by September

Accept it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Just now, Paradis said:

Oh, Jets fans and their infatuation with late project QBs...

We rolled the dice on Bryce... And he's lived up to his billing as a project at best. He could surprise this summer but I wouldn't hold you breath.

Good kid, but barely 50/50 to be on the roster by September

Accept it.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Mangold took him to the Rangers game and bought him an ice cream cone. That means something.

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Mike Maccagnan on Bryce Petty's Progress

Posted Jan 26, 2016

  •  
  •  

Four Points from the Jets GM on the How the Young QB Has Made the Leap from College to the Pros

AP_591181697064-article.jpg
 

Heading into the offseason, Jets fans have seen what Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith, the first two quarterbacks on the Green & White depth chart, can do. But they still may not be sure what they've got in now-second-year man Bryce Petty.

General manager Mike Maccagnan said the team's coaches and personnel people are very optimistic about what Petty can bring to the table for 2016 and beyond.

"We're really excited about working with Bryce this offseason," Maccagnan told Jets season ticket holders recently on a special conference call, "and this is going to be a very, very important offseason for him in his development. I think he’s the type of kid who’s going to hopefully fulfill and achieve that. And we’ll get a better feel for where he’s at in the preseason next year and we’ll kind of measure that compared to where he was as a rookie to see how far he’s come along."

 
 

Here are four points Maccagnan touched on in giving a progress report for where Petty is as he heads into his second season as a Jets and NFL signalcaller, along with a comment from QBs coach Kevin Patullo about the biggest part of Petty's adjustment from Baylor to the Jets:

 

1. Arm Strength

Maccagnan: "Bryce is a good athlete for his size, he’s got obviously very good size and stature. He has probably one of the strongest arms of all our quarterbacks in terms of his ability to throw the ball and physically make throws that other quarterbacks can’t make."

 

2. Intangibles

Maccagnan: "I think from an intangible standpoint, he is what we thought he was when we drafted him. He’s got a very good personality, he’s a very hard-working young man, he’s a very smart young man. He really, I think, has the work ethic and the commitment to hopefully fulfill some of his physical potential."

 

3. Adjustment from College to the Pros

Maccagnan: "We feel he’s progressed very well from where he was and the system he played in in college. A lot of people understood when we drafted him that there was going to be a bit of an adjustment to the NFL, an NFL system. But it's just the simple fact that he’s out there practicing, in the classroom, understanding things more from a system and decision-making standpoint."

Patullo: "Defensively, that's where there's a big game, between college and pro defenses. There's so much no-huddle, tempo and pressure on the defense. In college they just kind of have to line up and play, where at this level, even if you do any of that kind of stuff, the defensive players are so much more athletic and use so much more complex schemes. That’s where the big gap is, it’s just seeing everything and learning."

 

4. Prognosis for Year 2

Maccagnan: "We feel ability-wise, he can definitely be a quality No. 2 backup and the rest is kind of up to him. He has the physical ability to potentially be a starting-caliber quarterback, but he still has to go out there and do it on the field in preseason and kind of see where he’s at. But we're very excited about working with him and we do feel he has a bright future."

http://www.newyorkjets.com/news/article-randylangefb/Mike-Maccagnan-on-Bryce-Pettys-Progress/c1f84b9b-8af9-410b-b5a8-06128eca2d54

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1 hour ago, legler82 said:

Don't really understand the Wentz comparison.  Wentz will sit at the most a year, and the odds are probably against that.  Also, since Wentz will be a 1st round pick, they will have him PLAYING for 4 years.  Petty taking 3-4 years to be ready to be a viable back-up is not a successful pick when said pick could have been a starter or contributing player IMO.

 

The comparison is that even high first round picks have sat out a full year before playing. So a 4th round pick who never took a snap under is naturally going to need more time. 

I really like Petty and hope he becomes our franchise QB, but I'm not expecting it any time soon. 

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3 hours ago, rex-n-effect said:

Until we see him in preseason games in August we really won't know how he has progressed anywhere near what the coaching staff knows. Comments coming out of the team's staff doesn't tell us much because those comments may have ulterior purposes like lighting a fire under him to improve or trying to game other teams ahead of the draft. For now we're stuck looking at what we do in the draft and who we try to pick up in remaining free agency. If we go into training camp with just Geno and Petty then it's hard to imagine the plan isn't to start Petty.

The coaches don't know much more than we do. Practices are extremely limited nowadays. You really don't know until you get them in the games anyway. Hopefully he's been working on his own and he lights it up in preseason.

The only thing we really know is that he has all the tools. He's big, strong, has character, and charisma. If he has corrected all his mechanical problems this year and learned the offense then we can start finding out if he can read defenses. I'd say that will take a year at least before we have a good idea. Here's to hoping.  

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13 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

O'Brien hasn't proven to be much of a QB whisperer.  

Yeah that tom Brady is pretty overrated. Even Fitz was on pace to have a very good season that last season in Houston before he got hurt. And I seem to remember that scrub TJ Yates embarrassing this jets defense just last year

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6 minutes ago, cant wait said:

Yeah that tom Brady is pretty overrated. Even Fitz was on pace to have a very good season that last season in Houston before he got hurt. And I seem to remember that scrub TJ Yates embarrassing this jets defense just last year

So far he's traded up from Fitz to Mallet, then Hoyer, and now just gave Osweiler an 18 million per year contract. 

Sorry if I don't worry about little, little Bill's opinion of a QB

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3 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

So far he's traded up from Fitz to Mallet, then Hoyer, and now just gave Osweiler an 18 million per year contract. 

Sorry if I don't worry about little, little Bill's opinion of a QB

You claimed that he knows nothing about coaching QB's but my point is he's gotten decent production out of complete dogsh*t. And even a scrub like fitz was better under o'brien then noted "QB whisperer" chan gailey

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2 minutes ago, cant wait said:

You claimed that he knows nothing about coaching QB's but my point is he's gotten decent production out of complete dogsh*t. And even a scrub like fitz was better under o'brien then noted "QB whisperer" chan gailey

The question I answered was about what O'brien knows about Hackenberg that we don't know, so I'm saying that his track record of picking QBs is questionable at best. I may have misused the term QB whisperer. 

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Just now, NYs Stepchild said:

The question I answered was about what O'brien knows about Hackenberg that we don't know, so I'm saying that his track record of picking QBs is questionable at best. I may have misused the term QB whisperer. 

Ah fair enough. I've only heard chan gailey called that before so I assumed you were talking X's and O's 

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4 hours ago, Ex-Rex said:

Because on nearly EVERY Jets site I visit, all everyone is talking about is how the Jets can get a QB like Lynch or Cook. If the Jets draft a QB it will send a clear signal that Petty is not progressing as well as the team had hoped. I sincerely hope that is not the case. I was extremely pleased when the Jets took Petty. I watched him with a lot of interest at Baylor and thought he was a better prospect than RGIII. But WTF do I know? Thoughts?

Wasnt a fan of Petty before the draft. didnt think the pick was bad...but we could have picked up talent at a different position, Adrian Amos for example.

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2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

They don't all take 3-4 years just to be a viable backup, which is what he said would be a waste. Frankly I agree.

The point was that with a 1st round pick you need an immediate return, its a waste to use it on a player than needs to be developed.  So my point is any and every QB needs time to develop.  Every.  

Rodgers was an extreme example given his 4 years of development time.  I would sign up for 4 years bringing me a HOF QB in a heartbeat though

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2 hours ago, legler82 said:

I don't fault the front office for taking a flyer on a QB late in the draft.  At the same time, I'm not such a homer, that I would call using the length of a rookie contract to groom a "viable" back-up a successful pick.  I believe in the Packer's philosophy of taking a mid to late QB pretty much every year but accept the fact it comes with a very low success rate.

They drafted Petty with the idea of him becoming a backup and hopefully more.  Thats what you get with mid to lower round QBs.  Thats what the Packers did.  And it worked given they had Rodgers fall in their laps.  If you always have one in the developmental cycle you can have multiple success stories and trade them away for better picks than the one you used to start the cycle

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2 hours ago, flgreen said:

Mike Maccagnan on Bryce Petty's Progress

Posted Jan 26, 2016

  •  
  •  

Four Points from the Jets GM on the How the Young QB Has Made the Leap from College to the Pros

AP_591181697064-article.jpg
 

Heading into the offseason, Jets fans have seen what Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith, the first two quarterbacks on the Green & White depth chart, can do. But they still may not be sure what they've got in now-second-year man Bryce Petty.

General manager Mike Maccagnan said the team's coaches and personnel people are very optimistic about what Petty can bring to the table for 2016 and beyond.

"We're really excited about working with Bryce this offseason," Maccagnan told Jets season ticket holders recently on a special conference call, "and this is going to be a very, very important offseason for him in his development. I think he’s the type of kid who’s going to hopefully fulfill and achieve that. And we’ll get a better feel for where he’s at in the preseason next year and we’ll kind of measure that compared to where he was as a rookie to see how far he’s come along."

 
 

Here are four points Maccagnan touched on in giving a progress report for where Petty is as he heads into his second season as a Jets and NFL signalcaller, along with a comment from QBs coach Kevin Patullo about the biggest part of Petty's adjustment from Baylor to the Jets:

 

1. Arm Strength

Maccagnan: "Bryce is a good athlete for his size, he’s got obviously very good size and stature. He has probably one of the strongest arms of all our quarterbacks in terms of his ability to throw the ball and physically make throws that other quarterbacks can’t make."

 

2. Intangibles

Maccagnan: "I think from an intangible standpoint, he is what we thought he was when we drafted him. He’s got a very good personality, he’s a very hard-working young man, he’s a very smart young man. He really, I think, has the work ethic and the commitment to hopefully fulfill some of his physical potential."

 

3. Adjustment from College to the Pros

Maccagnan: "We feel he’s progressed very well from where he was and the system he played in in college. A lot of people understood when we drafted him that there was going to be a bit of an adjustment to the NFL, an NFL system. But it's just the simple fact that he’s out there practicing, in the classroom, understanding things more from a system and decision-making standpoint."

Patullo: "Defensively, that's where there's a big game, between college and pro defenses. There's so much no-huddle, tempo and pressure on the defense. In college they just kind of have to line up and play, where at this level, even if you do any of that kind of stuff, the defensive players are so much more athletic and use so much more complex schemes. That’s where the big gap is, it’s just seeing everything and learning."

 

4. Prognosis for Year 2

Maccagnan: "We feel ability-wise, he can definitely be a quality No. 2 backup and the rest is kind of up to him. He has the physical ability to potentially be a starting-caliber quarterback, but he still has to go out there and do it on the field in preseason and kind of see where he’s at. But we're very excited about working with him and we do feel he has a bright future."

http://www.newyorkjets.com/news/article-randylangefb/Mike-Maccagnan-on-Bryce-Pettys-Progress/c1f84b9b-8af9-410b-b5a8-06128eca2d54

Uh, you do realize pretty much every QB in the league - and I'm including all the 3rd stringers - could have that bolded part said about them. Even Fitzpatrick, who was and is comparatively light on physical ability, had enough physical ability to potentially be a starting-caliber QB. 

Maccagnan's comments, if you read between the lines, say this: "Well he obviously has enough physical ability, which I saw when I drafted him. But he hasn't shown nearly enough to even consider as a starter. Hopefully when we see him in the spring/summer he looks better than the last time we saw him play/practice. But none of us think that's going to happen this year, and if it does we'll all be very surprised."

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6 hours ago, Ex-Rex said:

I watched him with a lot of interest at Baylor and thought he was a better prospect than RGIII. But WTF do I know? Thoughts?

A better prospect than RG3????  WTF do you know?  Your problem is that you know that you know and you really don't know, and as long as you know that you know, you'll never know. But the day that you know that you don't know, then you'll know. Now you may look at me and say 'man you are ****in crazy'. And I'll say, 'I know'. Now once you start questioning yourself like you did something will happen.  What will happen you ask?  I don't know.  But when it happens you'll know and then you'll tell us and we'll all know.    

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7 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

The point was that with a 1st round pick you need an immediate return, its a waste to use it on a player than needs to be developed.  So my point is any and every QB needs time to develop.  Every.  

Rodgers was an extreme example given his 4 years of development time.  I would sign up for 4 years bringing me a HOF QB in a heartbeat though

That wasn't what he said. He said if it takes 4 years to develop him into a backup then Petty wasn't a good pick in hindsight. I agree with that. Aaron Rodgers, lol.

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13 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

The comparison is that even high first round picks have sat out a full year before playing. So a 4th round pick who never took a snap under is naturally going to need more time. 

I really like Petty and hope he becomes our franchise QB, but I'm not expecting it any time soon. 

 

Link?

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15 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Nah man.  That adonis Glennon is 6-6.  Shrimpy Petty is only 6-3.  A Glennon he most certainly is not.

Yeah, but 3 inches of Glennon's height is his neck.  He is a mini giraffe.  Their throwing shoulders are the same height.

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5 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

That wasn't what he said. He said if it takes 4 years to develop him into a backup then Petty wasn't a good pick in hindsight. I agree with that. Aaron Rodgers, lol.

QBs take 3-4 years to fully develop.  Has been the golden rule to fully develop.  He'll be the backup or not before that time though.  We can not like it all we want but while theyre thrown out there now and some produce earlier theyre not fully developed. Rodgers is the extreme example because of Favre he got 4 years and came out gunning.  

All I was saying is if you believe you have to get immediate return from a 1st its not usually from a QB.  QB help comes after a developmental period 

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40 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

QBs take 3-4 years to fully develop.  Has been the golden rule to fully develop.  He'll be the backup or not before that time though.  We can not like it all we want but while theyre thrown out there now and some produce earlier theyre not fully developed. Rodgers is the extreme example because of Favre he got 4 years and came out gunning.  

All I was saying is if you believe you have to get immediate return from a 1st its not usually from a QB.  QB help comes after a developmental period 

But you're arguing against a point nobody is making. Petty was not a 1st round pick, and anyway the comment was solely in regards to how the pick will look in hindsight if it takes 4 years just to develop into a viable backup

I don't understand your repeated replies. Nobody has opined that if it takes Petty 4 years to turn into Aaron Rodgers then it was a wasted pick. Nobody. Further, nobody has suggested it should take 1 year to fully develop a QB. Yet you keep arguing against a point nobody made, as though that was anybody's opinion. Straw man argument

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I think it's far too soon to write off Petty as a wasted pick.  We all knew (or should have known) that he was a 2-3 sit-and-learn developmental pick.  Well, we're only at 1 of that 2-3, so there is no earthly reason to rush him, get mad, or demand he be replaced on the chart.

If he's the #3 this year, ok.  Better still if he's ready to be the #2.  Let that play out, and we'll see (again) where his development is next offseason, when it's closer to make/break time.  Worst case, he may be a #2, but reliable, quality #2's are a good thing to have too.  

Lets see how he plays in Preseason this year, that will tell us (and the team) alot.

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