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The Idiocy of Pre-Draft Hype/Analysis


Dcronin
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30 minutes ago, Dcronin said:

I can't believe how much time I waste on this NFL Draft nonsense. Listening to "experts" who think they have a crystal ball, reading people's guesses, and wildly different opinions on players from all over the country. It's just insane.

No one on earth has an easier job than an NFL analyst. You can predict, you can warn, you can pass opinion off as fact, you can change your mind, and...you never, ever have to be right. No one cares. No one goes back and checks, usually.

Except last night, I was watching the 2010 Draft on the NFL Network (yes, I have an illness) and hearing Rich Eisen talk about the "Tim Tebow - Demaryius Thomas show for years to come" made me realize NO ONE knows what will happen. Useless to overthink. We just don't know what will become of these young men or of these GMs and coaches and experts hunches and opinions. There will be busts. (The Jets picked Kyle Wilson.) There will be gems (let's hope Mauldin is one. Seems like he could be.)

Was reading that the Seahawks 2012 draft was panned as one of the league's worst. This is a draft that included Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Lane.

No one knows anything. I should spend more time with my family.

DC 

This is an epiphany. Welcome to the small group of those that are aware of how ignorant we are. This is not only true for NFL analysts, but in most every aspect of life. We don't know anything until it's been thoroughly tested, yet most people continue to shout down anyone with a dissenting view no matter how often they're wrong. 

The only thing I know for sure is that most people are wrong most of the time. 

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Just as many late round QB's become franchise as those chosen top 5 or so, Mac will probably take a mid round QB with a strong arm, Kurt Warner wasn't even drafted, Brady was 5th round,Joe Montana was 3rd round, Namath was the number one pick in his draft, I think we got the pick by lottery or some rigged trumpted up process, similar to the Mets getting Seaver.  It wouldn't surprise me all that much ifMac traded up for Lynch, maybe to 15 to 17 range, kinda feel like that's what gonna happen if he doesn't go

early, Mac and Rex are both dump enough to fight over this guy.  

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1 hour ago, Dcronin said:

I can't believe how much time I waste on this NFL Draft nonsense. Listening to "experts" who think they have a crystal ball, reading people's guesses, and wildly different opinions on players from all over the country. It's just insane.

No one on earth has an easier job than an NFL analyst. You can predict, you can warn, you can pass opinion off as fact, you can change your mind, and...you never, ever have to be right. No one cares. No one goes back and checks, usually.

Except last night, I was watching the 2010 Draft on the NFL Network (yes, I have an illness) and hearing Rich Eisen talk about the "Tim Tebow - Demaryius Thomas show for years to come" made me realize NO ONE knows what will happen. Useless to overthink. We just don't know what will become of these young men or of these GMs and coaches and experts hunches and opinions. There will be busts. (The Jets picked Kyle Wilson.) There will be gems (let's hope Mauldin is one. Seems like he could be.)

Was reading that the Seahawks 2012 draft was panned as one of the league's worst. This is a draft that included Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Jeremy Lane.

No one knows anything. I should spend more time with my family.

DC 

The path to wisdom is to first realize how little you know

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1 hour ago, NYs Stepchild said:

This is an epiphany. Welcome to the small group of those that are aware of how ignorant we are. This is not only true for NFL analysts, but in most every aspect of life. We don't know anything until it's been thoroughly tested, yet most people continue to shout down anyone with a dissenting view no matter how often they're wrong. 

The only thing I know for sure is that most people are wrong most of the time. 

Good point. 

 

It's the conditioning. People generally dont see it, or ignore it in order to play it "safe" They get uncomfortable when you challenge the norm. Its about popularity or being part of the in-crowd. It reminds me of The Borg from star trek lol.  "Might is right" or truth being based on "how many people agree with you". People are scared to get in trouble, look stupid or be considered the bad guy. As the quote says, I'd rather have questions that cant be answered than answers that cant be questioned. 

We live in a time where you cant question a thing, and the pundits are the "end all, be all"

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30 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

I dont know, I think a lot of the analysts get a pretty amazing amount right. So much so that you could probably draft pretty decently just using their grades. No one is close to perfect even the best GM

I think its less about the pundit's getting it right when they are right (because they will let you know) but its about not being able to challenge their opinion. Remember this? 

 

 

Sure, its easy to get it right in the first two rounds, but like every year we hear the same analysts talk about the same top 30/top 50 players. Its never any diversity. We dont really see these pundits digging into the crates talking about guys like a Allen Hurns. 

How do all of these guys miss out on a talent like that? Hurns came in the league already NFL prepared. How did Marquise Lee get more attention than Allen Hurns across the board? Its easy to be right when you're always dealing with what's considered the top talent, talking about the top talent, interviewing the top talent etc.

I remember when Ron Jaworski said that "he wouldnt draft Johnny Manziel in the first 3 rounds of the 2014 draft" based on Johnny Manziel's game tape.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1973759-ron-jaworski-says-he-wouldnt-pick-johnny-manziel-in-first-3-rounds-of-nfl-draft

Then Ron seen Manziel in shorts at his pro day and "suddenly" he had a different story. Ron's response based on Manziel putting on a helmet and throwing in shorts completely negates his years worth of game footage? This is what I dont understand about these pundits. Its a load of crap sometimes and it seems like it's more about not hurting a guy's stock than it is about being genuine in their assessment. Ron was right the first time. A helmet and shorts at a pro day didnt change that. 

 

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