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derp

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I was going to try to do this without trades but it’s more fun to project a little movement. This is a guess at what the Jets do, not necessarily what I would. Can’t wait to look back and this and see I got nothing right – but this is always a fun exercise. In a fun twist after I put this together while at work Jetsfan80 posted a mock earlier today that had a lot of similarities including 3 of the same guys - two at basically the same picks - and more or less the same trade. Obviously we were on the same page on a lot of stuff

 

 

Jets trade Mo Wilkerson and #20 for #15, a 3rd round pick, and a 5th round pick. I could see this trade going down one of a few ways. Jets deal directly with the Titans who slide down a very little bit but pick up a defensive centerpiece and have a ton of picks. Or the Jets deal with the 49ers, after the Titans swoop up to #7 to pick up one of the top tackles in the draft. The 49ers have a ton of day 3 picks (9), would have an extra day 2 pick from the deal with the Titans, have a ton of cap space, and just tried to bring in a young defensive stud but didn’t get the deal done. 

 

Either way the Jets get an early 3rd, recoup a pick in that 5th-6th round range which I expect they will try to do, and open up cap space. For the other team they’re not giving up a ton in terms of premium picks assuming they’re willing to slide down a couple of slots, they get an elite player, and they have the cap space to make that move. This values Mo somewhere around the middle of round 2 which is not ideal – maybe I’m pleasantly surprised but it seems like a reasonable middle ground to land in when the Jets could really use the cap space they’ll get from moving him. For the record I'd actually be happy with hanging on to Mo, but I think he's a goner so they can get the quarterback done.

 

And on that note - since this is my projection, I say since the Mo deal is projected an agreement between the Jets and Fitzpatrick on a 3 year, $40m deal that’s really functionally 2 years, $25m gets announced on day 3 ($12m fully guaranteed this year, $13m half guaranteed next year, $15m unguaranteed year 3 which he’ll never see).

 

1. Shaq Lawson, edge, Clemson

The more I think about this draft, the more I think Lawson is the guy. The F.O. has been extremely tight lipped in the past, so I expect we’re going to be somewhat surprised by what they actually do. I think there may have been legitimate interest in Goff and Wentz, but to an extent they were doing their due diligence. Say the Titans or Browns were willing to trade #1 or #2 for Mo, #20, and filler – maybe Macc would have taken his shot. Lynch I was a bigger proponent of before that Wonderlic score came out – I was concerned anyway because I think you need him to be sharp in order to effectively develop him because he’s raw. Wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a tumble, but it only takes one team to fall in love and the talent is very enticing. And I wonder if the Wonderlic took him off the Jets’ board entirely, knowing part of the appeal with developing Petty was his intelligence.

 

Anyway, there is literally no starter across from Mauldin right now, and we know he was originally backing up Pace last year. Lawson is arguably the best edge rushing prospect in the draft – Floyd is really light and more of a versatile LB prospect than a pure pass rusher, Ogbah is really linear, Spence did not test well at all and obviously has off field questions. Lawson is the only one who ended up making it through the force player criteria which is interesting and had okay projections in other metrics as well. Shoulder concerns could push him down a little, maybe all the way to #20 so no need to move up, but I think the Lions have expressed interest so nice to leapfrog them and lock up a year one starter at OLB. Lawson's really interesting in that there are a wide variety of perspectives on his athleticism - very curious to see where he comes off the board and how he projects.

 

My preference might actually be not to draft Lawson and actually to go with a second tier LB and let Mauldin be the primary rusher. Somebody like Jenkins from Georgia would be a nice, solid add to just give some decent linebacker play without going crazy and using a premium pick on what seems to be a pretty weak edge rusher draft. But my guess is they go in a different direction - and likely draft someone I'm not a fan of with a premium pick and the goal of making them a pass rusher.

 

Also think it would be really interesting if the Jets moved up a bit to take Lawson with Lynch on the board – could evoke some memories of the trade up to get Revis when some thought they were going after Clausen in 2007. But here’s the pass rusher many want. Lawson did have a pre-draft visit with the Jets, and is one of the few first round prospects we know did.

 

2. Sean Davis, DB, Maryland

Total shot in the dark here, I think this selection is a massive wild card and largely depends on who is available.  Davis tested out extraordinarily well, very similar to Eric Rowe who the Eagles drafted last year. Don’t know of any interest from the Jets. Has experience playing both cornerback and safety. I like the fit because he’s a good athlete and could be a versatile guy in the defensive backfield – Bowles seems to like hybrid types. Maybe play safety in three safety looks, compete for the starting corner job across from Revis, play specials. Throw him in the mix and see where he fits. Mid-round corner might be more likely but this ended up being somewhere to throw in a wild card pick that I think could be possible.

 

3. Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

Sounds like the Jets are drafting a QB somewhere. Some (myself included) may not like it, but I think Hackenberg is the guy. Again with the pre-draft round 1 QB interest, if Hackenberg is your guy you want that kind of rumor that you're looking to move up to #1 or #2 or get Lynch out there. Gruden loved him and could see a FO similarly falling in love. Have to rebuild him, but there’s a lot of talent there and he had success early in college in a pro style system. Personally I think he lacks a clock to recognize pressure  and am not convinced he’ll have success. Almost put him here in round 2 but I think this is a reasonable middle ground. Wanted to put Kevin Hogan in round 4 but I think the lack of a big arm knocks him out of it for those cold, windy games in December. Almost threw Jacoby Brissett in there as well – but my gut says they like Hackenberg so I’m rolling with it.

 

3. Joe Haeg, T, North Dakota State

Haeg apparently needs to add strength but has outstanding movement skills. Thought he was connected to the Jets somewhere but I can’t find it now. I don’t know if the Jets can land someone to push Giacomini and end up as a long-term LT in this draft, so they settle for improved depth and a developmental LT and hope Qvale can push for the starting job. Wouldn’t be surprised if this gets addressed in round 2 if the right guy is there (Spriggs, Ifeidi) but that’s tough to project. One other thought - this guy played with Wentz. I'm usually leery of tackles who played with decent quarterbacks as they can get the ball out and it makes the tackles look better. But this is another shot in the dark pick. Feels like something the Jets would do in the third though - always seem to do something completely out of left field (though I understand past picks don't necessarily lead to future results).

 

4. Jayron Kearse, ILB, Clemson

I know Kearse played safety at Clemson – but someone in an article that I read recently pointed out that Kearse could profile as a similar guy to Deone Bucannon who played safety at Washington State but got moved to inside linebacker in the pros – for Todd Bowles in Arizona. The Jets met with Kearse and maybe they like him to do something similar with a much lower priority selection. Seems they’ve looked at a few guys in that realm. Could be a guy to develop and play in sub packages and on specials early on with the goal of having him start in a hybrid linebacker type role down the road. Feels like the kind of thing the Jets would do in round 4 - position change but a risky pick they like.

 

5. Demarcus Robinson, WR, Florida

Despite the fact that the Jets run a ton of three and four receiver sets, while Devin Smith is hurt the third and fourth WR’s on the Jets’ depth chart are Quincy Enunwa and Kenbrell Thompkins. After that it’s basically shots in the dark, and I don’t think Smith is necessarily going to be ready for the start of the year. I think the WR depth chart could stand to improve – could easily see it being addressed even in round 1. Robinson is a talented guy with some maturity concerns – suspended a bunch at Florida. Not that he got suspended but seems like a Jarvis Harrison type mid-day 3 roll of the dice. Visited with the Jets.

 

7. David Morgan, TE, UTSA

Slow guy but huge, apparently an outstanding blocker, good enough hands, and some wiggle to get open on shorter routes. Think he fits the historical Gailey mold at TE and could push for some play time given the weak depth chart. Could see the position getting addressed far earlier but think this guy could be a late round possibility.

 

7. Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA

Another WR who came in for a visit. Fuller can return punts and could potentially push for a spot on the WR depth chart. From a NJ HS.

 

Some things I didn't work into this at all that I could easily see - defensive line (if Mo gets moved and Sheldon gets suspended the early season depth chart at DE basically goes Williams - Jenkins - ? unless I'm missing somebody), almost put Bullard in round 2. A nose tackle wouldn't be a stunner either. Bunch of other OL possibilities, they could probably draft a right tackle only to get rid of Breno, a RG in rounds 2-4 or even round 1 could step in and play right away, a center with the ability to play guard has been on my wish list for probably 4-5 years at this point too. Myles Jack if he falls too would shift things around a bunch. Maybe that Eastern Michigan running back I wanted to throw in but decided not to. Think I basically touched on everything else - so pretty much I have no idea what they're going to do.

 

Again, not necessarily what I think will or should happen - just a scenario I guess that allowed me to throw some ideas out there. But this felt kind of realistic. Some stuff out of left field, some that makes sense, some stuff people might like, other picks people would absolutely hate. Anyway, fire away.

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35 minutes ago, derp said:

I was going to try to do this without trades but it’s more fun to project a little movement. This is a guess at what the Jets do, not necessarily what I would. Can’t wait to look back and this and see I got nothing right – but this is always a fun exercise. In a fun twist after I put this together while at work Jetsfan80 posted a mock earlier today that had a lot of similarities including 3 of the same guys - two at basically the same picks - and more or less the same trade. Obviously we were on the same page on a lot of stuff

 

 

Jets trade Mo Wilkerson and #20 for #15, a 3rd round pick, and a 5th round pick. I could see this trade going down one of a few ways. Jets deal directly with the Titans who slide down a very little bit but pick up a defensive centerpiece and have a ton of picks. Or the Jets deal with the 49ers, after the Titans swoop up to #7 to pick up one of the top tackles in the draft. The 49ers have a ton of day 3 picks (9), would have an extra day 2 pick from the deal with the Titans, have a ton of cap space, and just tried to bring in a young defensive stud but didn’t get the deal done. 

 

Either way the Jets get an early 3rd, recoup a pick in that 5th-6th round range which I expect they will try to do, and open up cap space. For the other team they’re not giving up a ton in terms of premium picks assuming they’re willing to slide down a couple of slots, they get an elite player, and they have the cap space to make that move. This values Mo somewhere around the middle of round 2 which is not ideal – maybe I’m pleasantly surprised but it seems like a reasonable middle ground to land in when the Jets could really use the cap space they’ll get from moving him. For the record I'd actually be happy with hanging on to Mo, but I think he's a goner so they can get the quarterback done.

 

And on that note - since this is my projection, I say since the Mo deal is projected an agreement between the Jets and Fitzpatrick on a 3 year, $40m deal that’s really functionally 2 years, $25m gets announced on day 3 ($12m fully guaranteed this year, $13m half guaranteed next year, $15m unguaranteed year 3 which he’ll never see).

 

1. Shaq Lawson, edge, Clemson

The more I think about this draft, the more I think Lawson is the guy. The F.O. has been extremely tight lipped in the past, so I expect we’re going to be somewhat surprised by what they actually do. I think there may have been legitimate interest in Goff and Wentz, but to an extent they were doing their due diligence. Say the Titans or Browns were willing to trade #1 or #2 for Mo, #20, and filler – maybe Macc would have taken his shot. Lynch I was a bigger proponent of before that Wonderlic score came out – I was concerned anyway because I think you need him to be sharp in order to effectively develop him because he’s raw. Wouldn’t be surprised if he takes a tumble, but it only takes one team to fall in love and the talent is very enticing. And I wonder if the Wonderlic took him off the Jets’ board entirely, knowing part of the appeal with developing Petty was his intelligence.

 

Anyway, there is literally no starter across from Mauldin right now, and we know he was originally backing up Pace last year. Lawson is arguably the best edge rushing prospect in the draft – Floyd is really light and more of a versatile LB prospect than a pure pass rusher, Ogbah is really linear, Spence did not test well at all and obviously has off field questions. Lawson is the only one who ended up making it through the force player criteria which is interesting and had okay projections in other metrics as well. Shoulder concerns could push him down a little, maybe all the way to #20 so no need to move up, but I think the Lions have expressed interest so nice to leapfrog them and lock up a year one starter at OLB. Lawson's really interesting in that there are a wide variety of perspectives on his athleticism - very curious to see where he comes off the board and how he projects.

 

My preference might actually be not to draft Lawson and actually to go with a second tier LB and let Mauldin be the primary rusher. Somebody like Jenkins from Georgia would be a nice, solid add to just give some decent linebacker play without going crazy and using a premium pick on what seems to be a pretty weak edge rusher draft. But my guess is they go in a different direction - and likely draft someone I'm not a fan of with a premium pick and the goal of making them a pass rusher.

 

Also think it would be really interesting if the Jets moved up a bit to take Lawson with Lynch on the board – could evoke some memories of the trade up to get Revis when some thought they were going after Clausen in 2007. But here’s the pass rusher many want. Lawson did have a pre-draft visit with the Jets, and is one of the few first round prospects we know did.

 

2. Sean Davis, DB, Maryland

Total shot in the dark here, I think this selection is a massive wild card and largely depends on who is available.  Davis tested out extraordinarily well, very similar to Eric Rowe who the Eagles drafted last year. Don’t know of any interest from the Jets. Has experience playing both cornerback and safety. I like the fit because he’s a good athlete and could be a versatile guy in the defensive backfield – Bowles seems to like hybrid types. Maybe play safety in three safety looks, compete for the starting corner job across from Revis, play specials. Throw him in the mix and see where he fits. Mid-round corner might be more likely but this ended up being somewhere to throw in a wild card pick that I think could be possible.

 

3. Christian Hackenberg, QB, Penn State

Sounds like the Jets are drafting a QB somewhere. Some (myself included) may not like it, but I think Hackenberg is the guy. Again with the pre-draft round 1 QB interest, if Hackenberg is your guy you want that kind of rumor that you're looking to move up to #1 or #2 or get Lynch out there. Gruden loved him and could see a FO similarly falling in love. Have to rebuild him, but there’s a lot of talent there and he had success early in college in a pro style system. Personally I think he lacks a clock to recognize pressure  and am not convinced he’ll have success. Almost put him here in round 2 but I think this is a reasonable middle ground. Wanted to put Kevin Hogan in round 4 but I think the lack of a big arm knocks him out of it for those cold, windy games in December. Almost threw Jacoby Brissett in there as well – but my gut says they like Hackenberg so I’m rolling with it.

 

3. Joe Haeg, T, North Dakota State

Haeg apparently needs to add strength but has outstanding movement skills. Thought he was connected to the Jets somewhere but I can’t find it now. I don’t know if the Jets can land someone to push Giacomini and end up as a long-term LT in this draft, so they settle for improved depth and a developmental LT and hope Qvale can push for the starting job. Wouldn’t be surprised if this gets addressed in round 2 if the right guy is there (Spriggs, Ifeidi) but that’s tough to project. One other thought - this guy played with Wentz. I'm usually leery of tackles who played with decent quarterbacks as they can get the ball out and it makes the tackles look better. But this is another shot in the dark pick. Feels like something the Jets would do in the third though - always seem to do something completely out of left field (though I understand past picks don't necessarily lead to future results).

 

4. Jayron Kearse, ILB, Clemson

I know Kearse played safety at Clemson – but someone in an article that I read recently pointed out that Kearse could profile as a similar guy to Deone Bucannon who played safety at Washington State but got moved to inside linebacker in the pros – for Todd Bowles in Arizona. The Jets met with Kearse and maybe they like him to do something similar with a much lower priority selection. Seems they’ve looked at a few guys in that realm. Could be a guy to develop and play in sub packages and on specials early on with the goal of having him start in a hybrid linebacker type role down the road. Feels like the kind of thing the Jets would do in round 4 - position change but a risky pick they like.

 

5. Demarcus Robinson, WR, Florida

Despite the fact that the Jets run a ton of three and four receiver sets, while Devin Smith is hurt the third and fourth WR’s on the Jets’ depth chart are Quincy Enunwa and Kenbrell Thompkins. After that it’s basically shots in the dark, and I don’t think Smith is necessarily going to be ready for the start of the year. I think the WR depth chart could stand to improve – could easily see it being addressed even in round 1. Robinson is a talented guy with some maturity concerns – suspended a bunch at Florida. Not that he got suspended but seems like a Jarvis Harrison type mid-day 3 roll of the dice. Visited with the Jets.

 

7. David Morgan, TE, UTSA

Slow guy but huge, apparently an outstanding blocker, good enough hands, and some wiggle to get open on shorter routes. Think he fits the historical Gailey mold at TE and could push for some play time given the weak depth chart. Could see the position getting addressed far earlier but think this guy could be a late round possibility.

 

7. Devin Fuller, WR, UCLA

Another WR who came in for a visit. Fuller can return punts and could potentially push for a spot on the WR depth chart. From a NJ HS.

 

Some things I didn't work into this at all that I could easily see - defensive line (if Mo gets moved and Sheldon gets suspended the early season depth chart at DE basically goes Williams - Jenkins - ? unless I'm missing somebody), almost put Bullard in round 2. A nose tackle wouldn't be a stunner either. Bunch of other OL possibilities, they could probably draft a right tackle only to get rid of Breno, a RG in rounds 2-4 or even round 1 could step in and play right away, a center with the ability to play guard has been on my wish list for probably 4-5 years at this point too. Myles Jack if he falls too would shift things around a bunch. Maybe that Eastern Michigan running back I wanted to throw in but decided not to. Think I basically touched on everything else - so pretty much I have no idea what they're going to do.

 

Again, not necessarily what I think will or should happen - just a scenario I guess that allowed me to throw some ideas out there. But this felt kind of realistic. Some stuff out of left field, some that makes sense, some stuff people might like, other picks people would absolutely hate. Anyway, fire away.

Not crazy about your second round pick: much rather go with best available OL if all things are equal talent wise at that point.  I love the Hackenberg pick and agree with you the Jets will be targeting him.  They may have to take him with the 51st pick if they he won't last until the third... 

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30 minutes ago, JetBlue said:

Not crazy about your second round pick: much rather go with best available OL if all things are equal talent wise at that point.  I love the Hackenberg pick and agree with you the Jets will be targeting him.  They may have to take him with the 51st pick if they he won't last until the third... 

This is a guess at what the Jets might do. Not necessarily what I would do - so it's not "my" pick. Just a guess at something they could do. And there I picked something that I thought would be a little different but could fit the scheme. There are picks in there - a few of them - that I wouldn't like. But come draft day the Jets are going to make picks I won't like - and after the fact I'll rationalize them to myself. Davis is one of those kinds of picks.

And while I'd have no issue with them drafting OL in the second round, I don't think the value on the board will be offensive line at that point. I'll probably be wrong - but that's part of why I didn't project them taking one there. Spriggs for example could make sense - but I don't think he'll be on the board at 51. But that's part of the guess.

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1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

Hey derp. I just don't think I could get excited about Hackenberg, and I'm not in love with the idea of standing Lawson up.

Hey Tom. While I don't share your concerns about Lawson (would be interested to get more thoughts from you on that) I don't think I would get excited about Hackenberg either - think I said that in there somewhere.

But that was kind of the point. How often have you felt like that about a couple of guys the Jets have picked? I'm sure at some point between now and Saturday they'll make a pick nobody likes and it'll kind of make sense after the fact.

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