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Hackenberg is in the HOUSE!!!


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14 minutes ago, Dcat said:

gotta love all the Nostradamuses we have here when it comes to assessing future QB play, particularly Hackenburg.  

One question:  Why haven't you guys been hired by NFL teams to utilize your vast expertise?  I'm shocked that no one has noticed your supreme evaluation skills to date.

So since you don't work for an NFL team either, can we assume that you'll stop voicing your opinions also?

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15 minutes ago, Dcat said:

gotta love all the Nostradamuses we have here when it comes to assessing future QB play, particularly Hackenburg.  

One question:  Why haven't you guys been hired by NFL teams to utilize your vast expertise?  I'm shocked that no one has noticed your supreme evaluation skills to date.

Agreed. Supress all of the opinions. Will make for a great forum.

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21 hours ago, Shadetree said:

The negative news on hacks throws that keep popping up have me concerned? 

Who is he? Is he the bill-obrien guy that had success at penn state or the guy that couldn't be accurate in shorts on his pro day?

very concerned hes another eh QB. I'm glad it isn't an issue for 2016, but he smells like a bad pick in August and EVERYONE looks good in August. 

His pro day actually went very well. I read that his improved footwork from the combine to his pro day was a factor in drafting him/in the second round. Not that it really matters though, still has a long road ahead.

 

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24 minutes ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

So since you don't work for an NFL team either, can we assume that you'll stop voicing your opinions also?

My opinion of Hack is yet undetermined.  Haven't seen him play in the NFL.  

Many here have already made up their minds and are expressing their "opinions" as though they were facts and absolute predictions.  Utterly useless and you know it.  There is a huge difference from expressing opinion and acting like a know-it-all Nostradamus when in reality you have no clue how Hack will do when he gets his chance at the Pro level.

I like both apples and oranges so thank you for allowing me to compare them in response to your defensive post.

 

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38 minutes ago, Irish Jet said:

Agreed. Supress all of the opinions. Will make for a great forum.

Not all opinions.  Only those that are not in alignment with Poster X.

It's the Ray Ray Rule or Forum Posting.

Suffice to say we're all excited (or should be) to see Hack play this preseason, and see (vs. NFL-ish talent) where our potential future #1 is right now, in terms of ability and development, and how far me may still have to go.

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5 hours ago, Shadetree said:

Agreed. But, I'm a jets fan. Predicting doom is what we do.

the knock on him coming out was inaccuracy. I can't let that go. QB Accuracy is king in the NFL.  

Inaccurate ....."ball wobbles out of his hand"...arrgh ...the sky is falling!!..we're all gonna die!!! Get me outta here!!

Lol, it is what we're known for.  I'm not particularly worried about accuracy etc.. All QBs need to develop.  We can pick apart pieces of all their games coming out of school.  I've always though that these guys all come out of school with gaudy numbers, they all have the ohupyscial talent.  If they get the right coaching, are open to putting in the work to tune their mechanics and learn the pro game they'll have a chance.  If they refuse, just figure they're good enough, don't put in class and practice hours they become Browning Nagle. 

Hey, we deserve a break with the QB position.

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48 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Lol, it is what we're known for.  I'm not particularly worried about accuracy etc.. All QBs need to develop.  We can pick apart pieces of all their games coming out of school.  I've always though that these guys all come out of school with gaudy numbers, they all have the ohupyscial talent.  If they get the right coaching, are open to putting in the work to tune their mechanics and learn the pro game they'll have a chance.  If they refuse, just figure they're good enough, don't put in class and practice hours they become Browning Nagle. 

Hey, we deserve a break with the QB position.

too many fans confuse completion percentage w/ accuracy.  

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43 minutes ago, nyjunc said:

too many fans confuse completion percentage w/ accuracy.  

I gave up on this argument long ago. 

As you said too many don't see a difference.  They're two different stories.  But I've been told they're one in the same

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The main concern with mediocre, good and great college QBs is can they transition into the NFL. It's another world. The best of the best, faster than college.  There have been 1st rounders with great college stats, Heisman trophy winners that have never panned out. Then they are 6th round draft picks that do well. (Tom Brady) Then there are those who came out of the gate big in the NFL an then sucked. (RGIII, Kaperneck) And what ever happened to Ryan Leaf. I'm excited to see this kid but I'm not ready to put a franchise tag on him. They say he has the head for it. I've seen his college film. Looks good for college football and may have potential. I hope he sees a good amount of playing time in preseason and shows us something.

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5 hours ago, Dcat said:

gotta love all the Nostradamuses we have here when it comes to assessing future QB play, particularly Hackenburg.  

One question:  Why haven't you guys been hired by NFL teams to utilize your vast expertise?  I'm shocked that no one has noticed your supreme evaluation skills to date.

same fans that watched and chanted for marino only to see the jets draft ken obrien

same fans chanting for sapp only to  watch them select kyle brady

jets passed on two hall of famers that all fans were screaming for jets to take-fans are not always wrong

if I told you a former coach, gm and hall of famer thinks Hackenburg wont do well what will your response be?

 

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1 hour ago, kmnj said:

same fans that watched and chanted for marino only to see the jets draft ken obrien

same fans chanting for sapp only to  watch them select kyle brady

jets passed on two hall of famers that all fans were screaming for jets to take-fans are not always wrong

if I told you a former coach, gm and hall of famer thinks Hackenburg wont do well what will your response be?

 

That he hasn't played in the NFL yet so all you got is speculation.  

I'd trust the opinions former HC and GM a lot more than the three or more know-it-all fans in this thread. And how about any  GM, coach and HOFers that think he has a decent to good chance at NFL success? Are you suggesting that none of those exist? 

Bottom line: it is your speculation that he is destined for failure. But you really don't know, no matter how much you repeatedly claim that his future failure is a lock.

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3 hours ago, kmnj said:

same fans that watched and chanted for marino only to see the jets draft ken obrien

same fans chanting for sapp only to  watch them select kyle brady

jets passed on two hall of famers that all fans were screaming for jets to take-fans are not always wrong

if I told you a former coach, gm and hall of famer thinks Hackenburg wont do well what will your response be?

 

Doesn't mean they would have had the same success with the Jets at that time. Perhaps Marino succeeded because of Shula & his coaching and players they had at that time. Sapp because of Dungy & his system. Maybe if Mo Wilk was drafted by Cleveland he'd be a jag. 

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13 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Doesn't mean they would have had the same success with the Jets at that time. Perhaps Marino succeeded because of Shula & his coaching and players they had at that time. Sapp because of Dungy & his system. Maybe if Mo Wilk was drafted by Cleveland he'd be a jag. 

Multiple teams passed on these guys. Draft is and always will be a crapshoot. Only question mark for Mac so far is Smith and injury gets him a pass. There may be others in this draft class but till they play a season I will reserve judgment.

 

4 hours ago, kmnj said:

same fans that watched and chanted for marino only to see the jets draft ken obrien

same fans chanting for sapp only to  watch them select kyle brady

jets passed on two hall of famers that all fans were screaming for jets to take-fans are not always wrong

if I told you a former coach, gm and hall of famer thinks Hackenburg wont do well what will your response be?

 

 

22 minutes ago, C Mart said:

Doesn't mean they would have had the same success with the Jets at that time. Perhaps Marino succeeded because of Shula & his coaching and players they had at that time. Sapp because of Dungy & his system. Maybe if Mo Wilk was drafted by Cleveland he'd be a jag. 

 

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10 hours ago, Dcat said:

gotta love all the Nostradamuses we have here when it comes to assessing future QB play, particularly Hackenburg.  

One question:  Why haven't you guys been hired by NFL teams to utilize your vast expertise?  I'm shocked that no one has noticed your supreme evaluation skills to date.

 

9 hours ago, Miss Lonelyhearts said:

So since you don't work for an NFL team either, can we assume that you'll stop voicing your opinions also?

 

9 hours ago, Irish Jet said:

Agreed. Supress all of the opinions. Will make for a great forum.

Ah the old "you don't work for an NFL team thus your opinion is invalid" lame ass retort. Come on now have more respect for us that to roll out that tired garbage. Your game is way off.

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41 minutes ago, jgb said:

 

 

Ah the old "you don't work for an NFL team thus your opinion is invalid" lame ass retort. Come on now have more respect for us that to roll out that tired garbage. Your game is way off.

It's not the opinion that's invalid. It's the absolute conviction of the predictions for certain failure. Not one of you knows what will happen even remotely close to the level of certainty you seem to profess. That's where you lose any chance for the respect you covet.

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1 hour ago, Dcat said:

It's not the opinion that's invalid. It's the absolute conviction of the predictions for certain failure. Not one of you knows what will happen even remotely close to the level of certainty you seem to profess. That's where you lose any chance for the respect you covet.

If you covet anything on a message board you automatically lose, I'm sorry to say.

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5 hours ago, Dcat said:

That he hasn't played in the NFL yet so all you got is speculation.  

I'd trust the opinions former HC and GM a lot more than the three or more know-it-all fans in this thread. And how about any  GM, coach and HOFers that think he has a decent to good chance at NFL success? Are you suggesting that none of those exist? 

Bottom line: it is your speculation that he is destined for failure. But you really don't know, no matter how much you repeatedly claim that his future failure is a lock.

Here's the deal. Player evaluation is an inexact science. But it is a science. Research and experience can increase your accuracy in extrapolating college to pro performance, but it can never be 100%. The best hit on maybe 50% of their picks in a the first few rounds. This is just my estimate. Please don't cite a study showing it's 44.8% or whatever.

So while yes the professionals will have a higher percentage of "hits" than message board jockeys, sometimes we still get it right and they get it wrong. So yes, if I had to bet my life on drafting one player than didn't bust I would trust the pros. They have the resources and aforementioned research and experience. But you're still looking at maybe around 50%. 95% of message board posters (by definition, above-average fans) probably fall in the 20-40% accuracy range. But, sometimes they are right where the pros are wrong. It's a quirk of statistics, especially when one can cherry pick individual picks to show how smart or stupid the pros or the message board poster in question is.

This is one reason why I am amused by the criticism of Mel Kiper. He in some ways has a harder job than GMs, who are evaluated on an average of 7 picks a year, which, presumably are the guys they feel MOST confident in their evaluations of. Kiper rates HUNDREDS of players every year. He doesn't have the luxury of knocking a guy off his draft board because he has an uneasy feeling about him. Even if he was a God he'd only get 50% right (which would be incredible since pros get 50% of their most confident picks "right"), meaning plenty of ammo for those who want to point to his misses and call him a moron.

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1 hour ago, RSJ said:

Testeverde had the same problems as Hack in the Pros and turned it around with hard work and good coaching. Hack has a similar arm too. 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5449

 

Vinny Testaverde was better than you think

Posted by Jason Lisk on January 11, 2010
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Vinny Testaverde has virtually no chance of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame, even though he ranks seventh all-time in passing yards. The common perception of his career is that he was a late bloomer and a compiler who stuck around long enough to put up an occasional good season. He played in only two pro bowls, with the first coming at age 33. He stuck around to throw over 700 passes after turning 40 years old.

I'm here to tell you that Testaverde actually aged very much like a typical quarterback, peaking in ability and performance in his late 20's and early 30's. Oh, and he was probably every bit as good as the collective group of Hall of Fame contemporaries that played during the course of his career and in the generation before he arrived.

As impossible as it may be, I want you to wipe away any pre-conceived notions you have of Testaverde and his career. Let's pretend like we are talking about a hypothetical quarterback. All you know is the following:

1. This quarterback signed with a national collegiate power that was the quarterback factory of the time period.

2. Our hypothetical quarterback won the Heisman trophy and was the first overall pick in the NFL draft.

3. He played until he was 44 years old, and threw 6,701 passes in his career.

So, how good was our hypothetical quarterback? You would pretty guess he was a Hall of Fame caliber player with that info before and at the completion of his career. And the funny thing is . . . you might be right. When quarterbacks get up for their induction speeches in Canton, they always thank their teammates . . . and they should. Because, but for the grace of God, they could have been Vinny Testaverde instead.

I wish I could tell you how Vinny Testaverde would have done with an elite offensive unit, so we could compare him to the Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I can't though, because Testaverde never came close to playing with the offensive players that those others did. Here are the average career AV's of the ten other starters for each year that Vinny Testaverde was the primary starter for a team. I also list my current passer rating of choice, the adjusted net yards per attempt index, for Testaverde each of those seasons.

age year team teammates   ANYA index
25 1988 tam 29.0   75
26 1989 tam 27.7   89
27 1990 tam 35.6   97
28 1991 tam 33.3   78
29 1992 tam 34.0   96
30 1993 cle 41.0   116
31 1994 cle 42.7   98
32 1995 cle 41.2   119
33 1996 rav 52.9   117
34 1997 rav 41.0   99
35 1998 nyj 59.0   129
37 2000 nyj 46.3   96
38 2001 nyj 50.7   97
41 2004 dal 48.0   99

How bad were Vinny Testaverde's teammates early in his career? Well, Mark Carrier was a starting wide receiver, and he had a solid career. Paul Gruber was a rookie left tackle in 1988, and would go on to start for 12 seasons in Tampa, but never made a pro bowl. After that, well, there wasn't much that could be considered more than replacement level now that we can look back at history and see what those players did (or in this case, didn't do) for the rest of their careers. None of the quarterbacks who started their career since 1970 and made the Hall of Fame played a single season with a starting offensive group as bad as those first two in Tampa for Testaverde. Steve Young played for the same organization two years earlier, and with an offensive group with a 37.3 career AV average (slightly better than any Testaverde played with in Tampa), posted an 83 ANYA index score at age 25. You might be tempted to think that Dallas in 1989 was worse. They weren't good, but that offensive team had a 37.8 career AV average, and Aikman was far worse as a rookie than Testaverde was over his Tampa career.

Okay, so we can't really compare Testaverde's early part of his career because no Hall of Famer played with so many bad players during his career. We also can't see what Testaverde would have done if he played a team like the Air Coryell Chargers or the San Fransisco 49ers of the late 80's and early 90's, because he never played with a team that approached that many Hall of Famers or near Hall of Famers at the other offensive positions. That leaves us with what's left, the other seasons for Testaverde in his prime (Cleveland, Baltimore and the Jets) compared to Hall of Fame quarterbacks in seasons where they had similar supporting casts to Testaverde during their primes. I'm going to define "prime" as seasons between the ages of 26 and 35 for Testaverde as well as the following quarterbacks: Terry Bradshaw, Ken Anderson, Dan Fouts, Joe Montana,John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre. Everyone but Anderson and Favre is in the Hall of Fame, and I'm including Anderson since he seems to be everyone's choice for Hall of Fame snub. I didn't feel I could include guys like Manning and Brady since their prime years are still occurring, and we don't have an accurate gauge on the careers of their teammates since so many are still active.

Testaverde's best supporting cast was easily in 1998 at age 35 with the New York Jets. That offensive starting team had a career AV average of 59.0. Curtis Martin was the best back that Testaverde played with,Keyshawn Johnson was the best lead receiver he had, and Kevin Mawae was at center. The Jets also had Keith Byars as a veteran receiving fullback, a solid complement at the other receiver position in Wayne Chrebet, and the best tight end (Kyle Brady) that Testaverde would play with until he was a 41 year old throwing to a 21 year old rookie Jason Witten in Dallas (let that sink in). Overall, it was a pretty good offensive group though not historically elite. With that group, at age 35, Testaverde went 12-1 in the regular season and the Jets advanced to the championship game, and Testaverde posted a 129 ANYA index rating. To explain what that is, 100 is an average performance. Every 15 points above or below 100 is equal to one standard deviation better than or worse than the league average. Thus, Testaverde was almost two standard deviations better than the league average in 1998.

How did the elite quarterbacks do with a similar supporting cast to the 1998 Jets during their primes? Here is every season by those quarterbacks with an offensive team career AV average within 3 points of the 1998 Jets.

player   year team age ANYA index
anderson   1983 62.0 34 108
bradshaw   1979 61.7 31 119
kelly   1993 61.6 33 106
bradshaw   1978 61.4 30 127
montana   1984 61.0 28 137
anderson   1984 60.8 35 104
aikman   1997 60.8 31 100
fouts   1979 60.5 28 119
aikman   1998 60.0 32 122
bradshaw   1981 59.9 33 124
bradshaw   1982 59.9 34 111
fouts   1984 59.1 33 111
moon   1990 57.9 34 127
anderson   1980 57.4 31 85
fouts   1980 57.3 29 124
bradshaw   1975 57.3 27 114
kelly   1994 57.0 34 99
moon   1991 56.1 35 110
HOF AVERAGE     59.5 31.8 113.7

Of those 18 comparable seasons, the only one with a higher ANYA score was a 28-year old Joe Montana in 1984. Testaverde was almost three years older than the average player in this group, and over a full standard deviation better. This is only one season, though, so let's dig further.

The second best supporting cast that Testaverde played with during his prime was the 1996 Baltimore Ravens(the first season in Baltimore). The reason this season stands out above the other Cleveland/Baltimore years is because the Ravens dug up a 34 year old Earnest Byner at RB, and added rookie Jonathan Ogden along with Tony Jones on the left side of the line (they would let Jones go the next year and move Ogden to LT). The receiving corp of Derrick Alexander and Michael Jackson was very good for Testaverde's career standards, but not for other elite quarterbacks. Still, with this group, at age 33, Testaverde posted a 117 ANYA rating. When Football Outsiders went back and broke down the play by play from the 1996 season, they concluded that Baltimore had the #1 offense that season (and the second worst defense). So, how did the Hall of Famers do with a similar supporting cast to that 1996 Baltimore team?

player   year team age ANYA index
marino   1992 54.9 31 117
marino   1994 54.9 33 118
aikman   2000 54.5 34 82
marino   1993 54.4 32 133
fouts   1977 54.0 26 113
moon   1988 54.0 32 128
aikman   1999 53.8 33 105
favre   2002 53.2 33 107
moon   1987 53.1 31 108
kelly   1987 52.5 27 106
marino   1995 52.1 34 119
anderson   1975 51.8 26 129
fouts   1985 51.7 34 127
fouts   1986 51.6 35 98
moon   1989 51.5 33 116
kelly   1986 51.2 26 109
favre   2001 50.4 32 125
montana   1982 50.2 26 117
marino   1990 49.8 29 113
favre   2000 49.6 31 102
bradshaw   1980 49.6 32 112
marino   1991 49.2 30 117
favre   2004 49.2 35 119
favre   2003 49.1 34 107
HOF AVERAGE     51.9 31.2 113.6

You might notice that the two seasons that Testaverde made a pro bowl coincide with the two seasons that, according to career AV, he had his two best offensive starting units. He wasn't quite as dominant this season compared to the Hall of Famers, but he still outperformed the average and was almost two years older than the average HOF with a similar supporting unit.

In the other four seasons, in Cleveland and Baltimore, his offensive teams might generously be described as slightly below average. There were some good parts and also some holes, and certainly no Hall of Famers. Tony Jones, and one season of a disgruntled Andre Rison, were the best players according to career AV that Testaverde played with before he turned 33. In those four seasons (1993-1995, 1997), he posted two basically average statistical years, and two very good ones where he was more than a standard deviation better than the league. The average ANYA index score for those four seasons was 108, or about half a standard deviation better than average. Very few of the Hall of Famers played with offensive units that were this mediocre, and here's how they did:

player   year team age ANYA index
favre   1999 45.4 30 100
anderson   1976 45.2 27 112
marino   1989 44.9 28 112
favre   1998 44.9 29 110
favre   1995 44.8 26 130
elway   1986 44.6 26 110
elway   1988 44.5 28 96
moon   1985 44.3 29 91
anderson   1978 43.7 29 90
favre   1996 43.1 27 121
elway   1993 42.3 33 117
elway   1992 40.9 32 86
moon   1984 38.9 28 103
elway   1991 38.8 31 103
HOF AVERAGE     43.2 27.1 105.8

Yet again, Testaverde was older than the HOF comparables, and outperformed them slightly when playing with similar supporting casts.

What conclusions can we draw from this? I suspect that saying that Testaverde was better than Hall of Fame contemporaries like Jim Kelly and Troy Aikman would feel controversial. At some level, we know that teammates matter, and that quarterback statistical performance is highly variable precisely because there are so many other moving parts that contribute to the final numbers. But I'm not sure that we will be fully comfortable with the results if we could ever more accurately measure those contributions.

Testaverde never played with a receiver better than Keyshawn Johnson, let alone a receiving combo like Rice/Taylor or Rice/Owens or Reed/Lofton or Joiner/Winslow/Chandler. He got one year of Curtis Martin (and we saw how he performed), whereas a lot of the Hall of Famers played with elite running backs for a good chunk of their primes. He got one season of Jonathan Ogden as a rookie (and we saw how he performed), whereas almost all of the Hall of Famers played with lines that had four or five linemen that would prove to start 10+ years in the league, during those quarterbacks' best seasons.

I don't think Testaverde peaked late--I think he just had his best teammates late in his career. At age 26, he took a historically bad offensive unit, and put up merely below average passing stats. He was probably already pretty good by then. In his last year in Tampa Bay at age 29, he took a clearly sub-par offense and put up almost league average numbers. Still, the quarterback gets blamed and he was sent away, though history shows that he was clearly not the problem. His first year in Cleveland at age 30, he took a below average offensive cast and produced a well above average passing performance, and in my opinion, that was his peak year once we account for his teammates. Over the next several years, he would continue to produce numbers that, once you account for his teammates, shows a very good quarterback. And when he got to finally play with above average offenses that had multiple good players, he was among the league leaders, despite being at an age when some of his Hall of Fame contemporaries were slowing down when their offenses went from elite to merely above average.

I submit that Testaverde didn't discover some fountain of youth or manage to delay the aging process. He was just really good. And when you are really good at age 30-35, you can afford to lose a little and still be able to play in the NFL to age 40. I can't help but wonder what would have happened if Testaverde had managed to end up with an offense that had a few more good players when he was entering his late 20's. My guess is that he would be practicing his Canton speech.

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That's a great Testeverde article. Testeverde could probably still today throw a football 60 yards today. He had THAT good of an arm. But I think sometimes those big arms are hard to control for accuracy and until that gets better those types of arms need a supporting cast to have success. There was a time period when Vinny's accuracy made him a punch line. I think him and Hack have very similar arms. But I also think that if Vinny was on a better team early on he would be a lock for the HOF and probably should be in there anyway.

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Here's the big roadblock I can see: most HCs, OCs, and QBCs don't seem to actually have the desire to DEVELOP QBs. Sure, they'll get them practice, and help them mentally, but I've never been to an NFL practice where I saw a coach teaching MECHANICS.

Hell, get Darin Slack out there. He'll fix Hack's mechanics.

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6 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You don't draft a guy in the 2nd round who's mechanics are so screwed up that it is a huge issue.

Except, teams do it all the time.

They take guys that have never had to make reads, or take a snap under center, or who have flawed mechanics... because very few QBs come to the league "ready", so it's a constant gamble. Some horses have better odds than others, thus the different rounds they'll be drafted in.

 

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1 minute ago, Integrity28 said:

Except, teams do it all the time.

They take guys that have never had to make reads, or take a snap under center, or who have flawed mechanics... because very few QBs come to the league "ready", so it's a constant gamble. Some horses have better odds than others, thus the different rounds they'll be drafted in.

 

Most guys that have perceived 'a lot of work' to do get drafted in mid to later rounds where risk meets value.   In any case he will be here for multi years as our top QB prospects so any bellyaching I do will not have anything to do with how he does.

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2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

how many wanted paxton lynch?

Lynch looked good for the most part the last two years and produced good results over all for memphis.  Hackenburg was sort of good two years ago before he got beat to a pulp for two years.  Hey lots of optimistic supporters for this player by many on here which is great, I have no problem with it.  He just happens to be a QB I did not want to take and hearing from a few PSU fans who said the same thing doesn't make me feel great.

At least this front office realizes that a new QB needs some time, but often I find a young guym, even raw out of college has to do something early that makes you stand up and tak e notice even if he has rough spots to his game.  We will all have a better appreciation of the potential of the player after this years ex season.

 

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