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Inside Christian Hackenberg's exhaustive NFL prep: He's 'a slam dunk'


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26 minutes ago, Charlie Brown said:

In truth I was so disturbed by the current state of affairs that I had to step back see what the Jets were thinking during the off-season. The key is the Jets were clearly looking at Fitz as a hold the fort QB and then were putting all their chips in with Hack and then Petty being a wild card.

This is important, just because Fitz didn't play as well as supposed and the defensive players have gotten old in key positions (Revis) doesn't mean we should throw them out yet....

 

 

I've said it many times.  They finally have a GM who is focused on finding the long-term solution at QB.  He knew it wasn't Geno so he's drafted two QB's, traded and re-signed another to hold the fort, and explored trade possibilities for other significant upgrades according to reports (Glennon, Couisins)

There was never a threat of Fitz being here as a long-term starter.

The only thing I wanted to see from Mac was that he knew Geno isn't the answer, and he saw that rather quickly.

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Wow, so the guy Hackenberg paid to fix him thinks he's fixed? Was his QB coach not available to give a scouting report? What about his high school teammates? His mom maybe?

From January through mid-March, Christian Hackenberg’s introduction to the NFL would begin every morning at 5:30 at Jordan Palmer’s Southern California home. Palmer, an eight-year NFL veteran, sp

IT's Official I love christian sackenberg that penn state program being a sh*t show was a blessing in disguise jets family, we finally have the chosen one

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I've said it many times.  They finally have a GM who is focused on finding the long-term solution at QB.  He knew it wasn't Geno so he's drafted two QB's, traded and re-signed another to hold the fort, and explored trade possibilities for other significant upgrades according to reports (Glennon, Couisins)
There was never a threat of Fitz being here as a long-term starter.
The only thing I wanted to see from Mac was that he knew Geno isn't the answer, and he saw that rather quickly.



Great post

Nice to see there is another sane Jet fan out there
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25 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I've said it many times.  They finally have a GM who is focused on finding the long-term solution at QB.  He knew it wasn't Geno so he's drafted two QB's, traded and re-signed another to hold the fort, and explored trade possibilities for other significant upgrades according to reports (Glennon, Couisins)

There was never a threat of Fitz being here as a long-term starter.

The only thing I wanted to see from Mac was that he knew Geno isn't the answer, and he saw that rather quickly.

 

The concept is good.  Execution is crap.

Macc's four picks in the 1st two rounds;

Leo: A big hit but also was a no-brainer at #6.

Devin: injury prone one trick pony that doesn't fight for the ball in the air.  Terrible.

Darron: Supposed to be a "coverage" LB.  I see a guy that doesn't turn his head around.  Still time to improve but I see lots of Kyle Wilson, that won't work at ILB either.  Definitely not a future defensive anchor, which is what an ILB should be.

Hackenberg: Wouldn't be surprised if he isn't even deemed a capable backup after year 3.

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Just now, RoadFan said:

 

The concept is good.  Execution is crap.

Macc's four picks in the 1st two rounds;

Leo: A big hit but also was a no-brainer at #6.

Devin: injury prone one trick pony that doesn't fight for the ball in the air.  Terrible.

Darron: Supposed to be a "coverage" LB.  I see a guy that doesn't turn his head around.  Kyle Wilson at ILB won't work either.

Hackenberg: Wouldn't be surprised if he isn't even deemed a capable backup after year 3.

You might be 100% right, but the truth of the matter is that none of us know how good any of the QB's will or won't be.  He better take another one this year.

Also, Leo was far from a "no-brainer".  There was not one single mock draft that had him going to the Jets that I can recall.  WIth Mo and Sheldon on board, some said it was an unnecessary pick.

Devin...as of now...ugh

I saw Darron Lee as more of a guy who could prevent these running QB's from picking up huge first downs on 3rd and long.  We've already seen him prevent a few of those, and yes, his coverage skills do need work.

Even though I said we don't know about the QBs, I fear you may be right about Hack.  I saw him make a lot of throws in person...spirals were the exception.  Dude threw A LOT of ducks.

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1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

Ryan Fitzpatrick did what he's done for the last 10 years in the NFL on 5 different teams, why did Macc and Bowles expect any different. 

Neither has what it takes to win us a Super Bowl. 

Because theyre not clueless like certain fans.  They werent expecting SB in 2016.  Theyre trying to build a team, 2016 is kind of meaningless in the big picture.  You dont get that.  Most clueless fans dont get that and are crying.  Not surprising.  Just as its not surprising that with no idea if they can or cant get us to a SB you'll keep saying the same things, whining about them in every F'n thread on JN, putting your broken take on any and all discussions about this team

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Because theyre not clueless like certain fans.  They werent expecting SB in 2016.  Theyre trying to build a team, 2016 is kind of meaningless in the big picture.  You dont get that.  Not surprising.  Just as its not surprising that with no idea if they can or cant get us to a SB you'll keep saying the same things, whining about them in every F'n thread on JN, putting your broken take on any and all discussions about this team

Every thread is a Fitz/Bowles/Mac thread in his world.

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17 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

 

The concept is good.  Execution is crap.

Macc's four picks in the 1st two rounds;

Leo: A big hit but also was a no-brainer at #6.

Devin: injury prone one trick pony that doesn't fight for the ball in the air.  Terrible.

Darron: Supposed to be a "coverage" LB.  I see a guy that doesn't turn his head around.  Still time to improve but I see lots of Kyle Wilson, that won't work at ILB either.  Definitely not a future defensive anchor, which is what an ILB should be.

Hackenberg: Wouldn't be surprised if he isn't even deemed a capable backup after year 3.

So in other words, no credit for Leo.  Blame for a guy who injured himself playing.  Gives you the opportunity to make blanket statements that you have no idea have any meaning whatsoever to what he will or wont be.  Off a handful of games, most while injurted, with Fitz as his only QB.  Congrats.

Then some complete nonsense about Lee not turning his head as a way to discredit what is obvious to anyone a talented player with a chance and the usual knock on a guy who hasnt played a snap of NFL football.  

Nostradamus the GM has spoken.  Again, congrats!

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37 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I've said it many times.  They finally have a GM who is focused on finding the long-term solution at QB.  He knew it wasn't Geno so he's drafted two QB's, traded and re-signed another to hold the fort, and explored trade possibilities for other significant upgrades according to reports (Glennon, Couisins)

There was never a threat of Fitz being here as a long-term starter.

The only thing I wanted to see from Mac was that he knew Geno isn't the answer, and he saw that rather quickly.

If he did actually know that Geno wasn't the answer then he should have cut him and let Petty have the #2 reps.  I'da stiffed Fitz, let Geno start, and avoided this 4 QB roster fiasco.  At least 2/5 of us fan base types "knew" Fitz was a mistake.     

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1 minute ago, LIJetsFan said:

If he did actually know that Geno wasn't the answer then he should have cut him and let Petty have the #2 reps.  I'da stiffed Fitz, let Geno start, and avoided this 4 QB roster fiasco.  At least 2/5 of us fan base types "knew" Fitz was a mistake.     

He knew he wasn't the long-term answer, but I think Petty and Hack being so raw left him no choice but to keep Geno on the roster.  I was really hoping they'd give Geno the boot after camp.  As it turns out, he was around long enough to troll the team's losing streak which could come back to bite him when he hits FA in a couple months.

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Because theyre not clueless like certain fans.  They werent expecting SB in 2016.  Theyre trying to build a team, 2016 is kind of meaningless in the big picture.  You dont get that.  Most clueless fans dont get that and are crying.  Not surprising.  Just as its not surprising that with no idea if they can or cant get us to a SB you'll keep saying the same things, whining about them in every F'n thread on JN, putting your broken take on any and all discussions about this team


Why give Fitz $12mm then?


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2 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Don't care. It's true.

Not really.  His 1st round picks play.  1 was pure luck, the other 1 is beyond average.  Who else plays or has a significant role that BigMac has drafted?  

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Why PFF doesn’t have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg

Penn State QB's accuracy and ability to handle pressure are two red flags that emerged in three years of PFF college grades.

Sam Monson | 8 months ago
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback.

I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted.

That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data.

Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class:

Inaccuracy

There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages.

This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing.

Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative.

Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage.

Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys.

Hack WR Screen Miss

I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB.

The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent).

Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL.

Decision-making

All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway.

That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers.

PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg.

Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six:

Hack Pick Six

Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition.

Controlling pressure

Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg.

Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under.

Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap.

Free-Rusher-Middle

Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly.

Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up.

In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with.

Lack of upside

Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning.

In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse.

But what about 2013?

One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season.

Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season.

2016-04-08_08-02-21

Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall.

Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career.

When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him.

Hack Robinson

This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson.

Conclusion

One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell.

While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback.

Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play.

There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.

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The same single story that people who had no idea about Christian Hackenberg hang their hats on.  When you finish up by comparing Hack throwing to Tebow throwing you do people a disservice by not having that line up at the top of the article.  Would save people lots of time

I just wonder and ask, why would so called Jets fans continually, happily post this POS article by the one person in the media who cant give Hack even a draftable grade as fact?

Id rather go with the Gruden Football Camp video.  

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3 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

If he did actually know that Geno wasn't the answer then he should have cut him and let Petty have the #2 reps.  I'da stiffed Fitz, let Geno start, and avoided this 4 QB roster fiasco.  At least 2/5 of us fan base types "knew" Fitz was a mistake.     

well, maybe.  but think as a gm.  geno is an asset.  maybe some team wants to trade for him.  also, geno for all of his failings, has started games.  it would've made zero sense to go into the season starting fitz without a backup with some experience.  it's not so clear about petty although the reason why they kept him is to avoid putting him on waivers.  and if they did stiff fitz and go with geno they probably would've tried to get a vet backup. so we're right back to 4 qb's.  i guess there's a chance that not signing fitz would have left him available if geno went down but could you imagine fitz coming off the street?

and a point that no one appears to be making is the general suckiness of this team and how their record is not entirely because of fitz.  think about it.  they are currently -15 in turnovers.  fitz has 14 ints.  take away fitz's ints and they're still -1. you simply can not be successful in the nfl with such a high turnover differential.

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1 minute ago, rangerous said:

well, maybe.  but think as a gm.  geno is an asset.  maybe some team wants to trade for him.  also, geno for all of his failings, has started games.  it would've made zero sense to go into the season starting fitz without a backup with some experience.  it's not so clear about petty although the reason why they kept him is to avoid putting him on waivers.  and if they did stiff fitz and go with geno they probably would've tried to get a vet backup. so we're right back to 4 qb's.  i guess there's a chance that not signing fitz would have left him available if geno went down but could you imagine fitz coming off the street?

and a point that no one appears to be making is the general suckiness of this team and how their record is not entirely because of fitz.  think about it.  they are currently -15 in turnovers.  fitz has 14 ints.  take away fitz's ints and they're still -1. you simply can not be successful in the nfl with such a high turnover differential.

Geno is a free agent as soon as the season ends. FYI 

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2 hours ago, Gangrene said:

Why PFF doesn’t have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg

Penn State QB's accuracy and ability to handle pressure are two red flags that emerged in three years of PFF college grades.

Sam Monson | 8 months ago
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback.

I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted.

That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data.

Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class:

Inaccuracy

There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages.

This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing.

Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative.

Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage.

Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys.

Hack WR Screen Miss

I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB.

The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent).

Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL.

Decision-making

All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway.

That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers.

PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg.

Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six:

Hack Pick Six

Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition.

Controlling pressure

Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg.

Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under.

Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap.

Free-Rusher-Middle

Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly.

Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up.

In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with.

Lack of upside

Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning.

In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse.

But what about 2013?

One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season.

Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season.

2016-04-08_08-02-21

Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall.

Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career.

When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him.

Hack Robinson

This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson.

Conclusion

One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell.

While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback.

Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play.

There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.

PFF is such a bunch of fraud hacks. They throw statistics out that they don't even know what they mean. Its really amazing that anyone reads their nonsense.

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2 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

The same single story that people who had no idea about Christian Hackenberg hang their hats on.  When you finish up by comparing Hack throwing to Tebow throwing you do people a disservice by not having that line up at the top of the article.  Would save people lots of time

I just wonder and ask, why would so called Jets fans continually, happily post this POS article by the one person in the media who cant give Hack even a draftable grade as fact?

Id rather go with the Gruden Football Camp video.  

what is your deal? The people who didn't watch Hack in college are either dilluted (like yourself apparently) into thinking he's salvageable or they're minimizing how unlikely his development is... 

the people who DID watch him in college aren't even posting in this thread - but there's nothing to say. We literally wasted a second round pick. The only good that will come of this will be outing our GM for his inability to gauge QB talent. 

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19 minutes ago, Paradis said:

what is your deal? The people who didn't watch Hack in college are either dilluted (like yourself apparently) into thinking he's salvageable or they're minimizing how unlikely his development is... 

the people who DID watch him in college aren't even posting in this thread - but there's nothing to say. We literally wasted a second round pick. The only good that will come of this will be outing our GM for his inability to gauge QB talent. 

Whats wrong with me?

You go off telling me I never saw him, am dilluted or whatever because I think hes salvageable. 

Of course I have to be wrong, Pardadis says so.  Macc disagrees but I should listen to you.  Excuse me I'll go with my gut and Maccs pick and time will tell us who is delusional or not.  

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1 minute ago, Jet Nut said:

Whats wrong with me?

You go off telling me I never saw him, am dilluted or whatever because I think hes salvageable. 

Of course I have to be wrong, Pardadis says so.  Macc disagrees but I should listen to you.  Excuse me I'll go with my gut and Maccs pick and time will tell us who is delusional or not.  

You want a sympathy card in the mail? Think whatever the hell you want to think. The majority of the football universe were unified on the notion that Hack was a bust mid-way through his junior year. No more evidence needed. You quoted me, wearing your sheriff's hat, and acting like we're all crazy. We (the rest of the universe) who are not surprised in the slightest that this guy couldn't even over take Petty (or Geno). But we're assholes. Sure.

Like i said. No one's been this bad at football, and had people go to such lengths to excuse it. An anomaly, even by galactic standards. 

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5 minutes ago, Paradis said:

You want a sympathy card in the mail? Think whatever the hell you want to think. The majority of the football universe were unified on the notion that Hack was a bust mid-way through his junior year. No more evidence needed. You quoted me, wearing your sheriff's hat, and acting like we're all crazy. We (the rest of the universe) who are not surprised in the slightest that this guy couldn't even over take Petty (or Geno). But we're assholes. Sure.

Like i said. No one's been this bad at football, and had people go to such lengths to excuse it. An anomaly, even by galactic standards. 

Sympathy card for what?  Can you miss the mark by a wider margin?  Think I care what you think about every draft you cry about, every year?  

And you called yourself an a$$whole, not me.  Last time I looked you havent put any more QBs on NFL rosters than I have.  I'm just not the one acting like I have

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25 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Sympathy card for what?  Can you miss the mark by a wider margin?  Think I care what you think about every draft you cry about, every year?  

And you called yourself an a$$whole, not me.  Last time I looked you havent put any more QBs on NFL rosters than I have.  I'm just not the one acting like I have

No. Not buying it. Your hearts in the right place, but your positivity is mis-channeled on this one. And you're trying to make this about my being some kind of self-righteous draft nazi. Sorry... but no. Have I complained about our drafts as of late? Sure as hell have. Maybe you slept through the last 5 years, but take a look at our draft picks. 

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I know it seems crazy but I'm not convinced hackenberg is a wasted pick... if his footwork can really be fixed, which obviously is definitely still a big if, he's got all the tools to be a franchise guy. That said, they shouldn't pass on a better prospect if one is available this year

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