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PFF really has a bug up it's A$$ over Darron Lee & Jets as a whole


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https://t.co/kZAukmN6Es     Rated as the player with the highest "Bust" probability. Hope Lee shows them to be the clowns that they truly are!

Though the label of "bust" gets attached to players, it's often the team that should get the blame for drafting the wrong prospect in the wrong spot.

 

With a high draft position comes high expectations, and unfairly or not, players will be judged against their peers. In some cases, Pro Football Focus may like the player, but not on the team that picked him and not at the spot where he was picked. In other cases, players simply shouldn't be taken in the first or second rounds.

Here's a look at 10 players most likely to not live up to their draft spot, using PFF data to back up our assertions.

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Darron Lee, LB, New York Jets

First round, No. 20 overall

PFF likes Lee as a player, but we didn't think he should have been taken in the first round. The skills for which he was drafted have not been up to par the last two years. His coverage grade ranked 73rd among linebackers in 2015, and he posted a negative grade in 2014. The expectation is that Lee will become a three-down linebacker with coverage versatility, but he wasn't effective in that role at Ohio State. Lee's a good athlete, however, and it shows up in the run game and as a pass-rusher, where his +8.2 rush grade was among the nation's best in 2015. But athleticism should not be synonymous with coverage ability, and Lee has a ways to go as a coverage player before warranting that first-round selection.

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I think he's a reach for a 3-4 team to select in the 1st round. Not that Lee was not a legitimate 1st round talent, he is. For a team playing a 4-3 base defense this guy is probably exactly what you w

Think they might want to let the guy play a few NFL snaps before calling him a bust? Stupid article.

Bowles Blitzes more than any other coach in the NFL: he wants smaller players with speed . Now while a player like Lee would not fit in a conventional 3-4 like say the 86 Giants ran Bowles Defense is

I think he's a reach for a 3-4 team to select in the 1st round. Not that Lee was not a legitimate 1st round talent, he is. For a team playing a 4-3 base defense this guy is probably exactly what you want. But for a 3-4 team? He's mismatched. He's too small. He's a square peg in a round hole. There were a number of better picks to make at number 20 than a mismatched midget linebacker. If anything, what they really should have done was trade down rather than reaching for a pocket sized linebacker. He looks SMALLER than Justin Burris for Christ sake. I'm sorry but I cannot possibly see this working out well. Based on what our team plays and what Lee's prototypical fit is, this scenario has HUGE bust potential.

At the end of the day, the only way I will ever believe this pick is anything other than psychotically DUMB on the part of Mac is when I see him making plays on the field. And you've got to remember this draft wasn't to get players that can be fringe starters for the next 10 years. Everyone knows the Jets NEEDED players to make an impact for a long time to come because the talent base is in such disarray. The ONLY way the Jets can be successful this season when considering the losses of Snacks and Brick and still no TE, was to NET about TWO starters out of this draft.

I don't believe the Jets have a single starter out of this draft. Even if Lee makes an impact, he will not be making that impact this season. He's simply too small and he'll need to be coached up and maybe put on a program to build more muscle on his frame. So if Lee is NOT a starter then who else is? Hackenberg? NO way. Jenkins? NO way, he's a role player at best. Justin Burris? I doubt it. At best he'll probably come in on dime packages. Brandon Shell? NO way. He'll need at least a season or more of grooming to land a starting spot. He's more than likely never going to be anything better than depth.

No, Mac f*cked this draft royally. He set the team back in regards to talent. He screwed over the HC, although I think Bowles had his fingers all over this draft. The Jets are headed for a 6 win season at best. After that? There will be huge questions as to whether Todd Bowles and Mac were the right choices in the first place.

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1 hour ago, Smashmouth said:

Bowles Blitzes more than any other coach in the NFL: he wants smaller players with speed . Now while a player like Lee would not fit in a conventional 3-4 like say the 86 Giants ran Bowles Defense is much different than that. Bowles wants to convert fast LB's into blitzing machines as the NFL turns more and more to the passing game the defenses must adjust and you saw Bowles do that in Arizona and now he's building this defense in that mold. We have Harris and a stout D - line to stop the run and take on Offensive lineman and we have Mauldin and Lee to create havoc I think you will be happy with the pick because no matter what the asshats at PFF say its all about the philosophy of the Coach and this apparently is what Bowles wants. The Jets also have the personnel to run more 4 man fronts if they keep Wilk so Bowles is building an unpredictable defense that will change on the fly to match up with whatever is thrown at them.

But that's not what Bowles is saying. Bowles said he was going to use Lee everywhere inside and outside. But first he'd start inside?! INSIDE?! How is this little guy going to shed blocks from 6'5" 300 pound offensive linemen? I can't see it happening at least not without adding weight. And even if he's eventually used to blitz on the outside, doesn't that make him a part time player? The Jets will not be blitzing 100% of the time. On top of that. Todd Bowles basically refused to use a 4-3 alignment last season despite having great talent along the DL, he was very stubborn about sticking to the 3-4. Based on that, I can't see him using the defense that way this season either.

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Not everyone is going to like every pick.  They probably gave Leonard Williams more live than any other rookie in the NFL last season.  No big deal.

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Jenkins is awesome and will be a starter, Hack, good chance, Lee, I guess if Ray Lewis was too small

Lee is, also like our  undrafted free agents, Lee is hard to block with his speed and quickness, I think the

Jets wanted Lee - Hack - Jenkins and Burris from this draft, speed. End of the day great draft.

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Every year, there are "Draft Winners" and "Draft Losers"

We'll know in 2 years.  There isn't a GM who thinks he blew his first rounder, but about half of them won't work out.

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I like some of our picks but I agree with Mainejet about Lee.  We can never find a pass rushing olb  so the sudden solution is to bring in a small fast ilb?  The nfl lets olines maul and hold inside pass rushers like there is no tomorrow (this is a testament at how good wilkerson was last year getting 12 sacks).  Will he makes plays?  Yeah probably but that depends on our front 3 totally keeping him clean.   In any case we will find out about him very quickly ion his career imo as to whee the is going to be what the team hopes or not.

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2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Yeah, you know more about Todd Bowles' defense than Todd Bowles. Despite  having a very similar player in Arizona, Deonne Buchanan playing ILB at 6'1, 211lbs, you somehow know that a bigger Lee at 6'1, 232lbs can't play the same position with success. 

First of all, the only reason why Buchanan was used that way was out of necessity. It's not like he knew all along this was going to work. He was forced to do patchwork. It also only worked because of the personnel surrounding Buchanan and even then it was "LIMITED" success. I'm not so sure the Jets have that same personnel to aid the little guy.

But here's the biggest reason of all, just because you may have experienced some limited success with a shrimp playing linebacker, DOESN'T mean you go right out next time and pick a f*cking midget. How about looking for the guy with the prototypical size to play in the 3-4 and the speed you're looking for? What a novel idea. Crazy I know...

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3 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

https://t.co/kZAukmN6Es     Rated as the player with the highest "Bust" probability. Hope Lee shows them to be the clowns that they truly are!

Though the label of "bust" gets attached to players, it's often the team that should get the blame for drafting the wrong prospect in the wrong spot.

 

3 hours ago, PatsFanTX said:

Think they might want to let the guy play a few NFL snaps before calling him a bust?

Stupid article.

They didn't call him a bust. They said he had a higher bust probability because of the situation he's in.

Put it this way: if Mangini drafted Vilma and he spent his formative NFL years in that defense, would he be considered a great pick or a bust at the close of his rookie contract? Or more correctly (as opposed to calling him a "bust" outright), a relative bust for his draft slot. In that defense he looked like what you'd expect from a mid-rounder. Good enough to put onto the field but nothing like what you wanted from a top-15 draft pick.

Personally I'm in wait & see as well. I think if he was too small or his skill set was so ill-fit for what Bowles wants to do, then I think Bowles would have communicated this to his GM at some point, and we wouldn't have taken him unless he slid to round 2 somehow. I don't love placing that high a rating on the position itself, unless he turns into a $12-15M/year ILB, but I can't kill the player himself for that. The position just isn't worth that, unless he turns into like a top 3 (minimum top-5) ILB.

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24 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

 

They didn't call him a bust. They said he had a higher bust probability because of the situation he's in.

Put it this way: if Mangini drafted Vilma and he spent his formative NFL years in that defense, would he be considered a great pick or a bust at the close of his rookie contract? Or more correctly (as opposed to calling him a "bust" outright), a relative bust for his draft slot. In that defense he looked like what you'd expect from a mid-rounder. Good enough to put onto the field but nothing like what you wanted from a top-15 draft pick.

Personally I'm in wait & see as well. I think if he was too small or his skill set was so ill-fit for what Bowles wants to do, then I think Bowles would have communicated this to his GM at some point, and we wouldn't have taken him unless he slid to round 2 somehow. I don't love placing that high a rating on the position itself, unless he turns into a $12-15M/year ILB, but I can't kill the player himself for that. The position just isn't worth that, unless he turns into like a top 3 (minimum top-5) ILB.

Yep, this kid is not close to being a von miller type player, like they drafted a good middle relief pitcher. this pick will always be measured against doctson and treadwell imo. Mac better hope they do not become studs

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13 minutes ago, afosomf said:

Yep, this kid is not close to being a von miller type player, like they drafted a good middle relief pitcher. this pick will always be measured against doctson and treadwell imo. Mac better hope they do not become studs

I said before I think the position is too cheap to find in FA to burn a mid-first round pick on him. Same with safety. And as luck would have it, that's what we've used with 2 of our last 3 top-20 picks. So we draft the cheap positions early and then look to free agency to sign the expensive positions (or draft those expensive positions later).

Burning 3 of our last 5 top-50 picks (and 2 of our last 3 top-20 picks) on ILB, S, and TE. Literally the 3 cheapest positions to fill in free agency. The big break in that was taking a DE #6 overall when we already had a pair of 24-25 year old stud DEs in the same mold. lol

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4 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I said before I think the position is too cheap to find in FA to burn a mid-first round pick on him. Same with safety. And as luck would have it, that's what we've used with 2 of our last 3 top-20 picks. So we draft the cheap positions early and then look to free agency to sign the expensive positions (or draft those expensive positions later).

Burning 3 of our last 5 top-50 picks (and 2 of our last 3 top-20 picks) on ILB, S, and TE. Literally the 3 cheapest positions to fill in free agency. The big break in that was taking a DE #6 overall when we already had a pair of 24-25 year old stud DEs in the same mold. lol

watching demario davis get burned time after time last year, how can you say this?  speed is a weapon.  the jets d lacked speed in the middle of the field last year.  harris isn't getting faster.  it would be nice if peake can play b/c they could use some speed on offense with devin smith out.

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17 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

watching demario davis get burned time after time last year, how can you say this?  speed is a weapon.  the jets d lacked speed in the middle of the field last year.  harris isn't getting faster.  it would be nice if peake can play b/c they could use some speed on offense with devin smith out.

I didn't say speed at LB isn't a weapon. I'm saying it's one of the cheapest positions to replace in free agency so therefore it is poorer value in the middle of round 1 than a high-dollar position (e.g. QB, WR, CB, DL, LT).

Drafting purely for need - or purely for speed - is how you take players you'd ideally value lower, but you're presently looking for something specific.

You develop rookies over the course of their first contract, in those first 2-3 season in particular. Well in years 4, 5, 6, etc the team's needs may be different and when looking back all we might later see is we passed up on a $12-15M/yr WR or CB, a $20-25M/yr QB, or didn't trade up for a $16M/yr LT so we could take an $8M/yr ILB. 

What I'm saying is all other things are not equal. So if, for the sake of argument, he's the 20th best prospect regardless of position, you still have to take into consideration how expensive or difficult it is to fill that role by other means. The superbowl champs filled those needs at ILB in round 5 and with a 6th rounder from the Jaguars' practice squad. So again, Lee absolutely could be worth the 20th pick in the country. But he's going to have to be great not merely good to show that kind of value, because we don't get an endless supply of 1st round picks.

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3 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I didn't say speed at LB isn't a weapon. I'm saying it's one of the cheapest positions to replace in free agency so therefore it is poorer value in the middle of round 1 than a high-dollar position (e.g. QB, WR, CB, DL, LT).

Drafting purely for need - or purely for speed - is how you take players you'd ideally value lower, but you're presently looking for something specific.

You develop rookies over the course of their first contract, in those first 2-3 season in particular. Well in years 4, 5, 6, etc the team's needs may be different and when looking back all we might later see is we passed up on a $12-15M/yr WR or CB, a $20-25M/yr QB, or didn't trade up for a $16M/yr LT so we could take an $8M/yr ILB. 

What I'm saying is all other things are not equal. So if, for the sake of argument, he's the 20th best prospect regardless of position, you still have to take into consideration how expensive or difficult it is to fill that role by other means. The superbowl champs filled those needs at ILB in round 5 and with a 6th rounder from the Jaguars' practice squad. So again, Lee absolutely could be worth the 20th pick in the country. But he's going to have to be great not merely good to show that kind of value, because we don't get an endless supply of 1st round picks.

maybe FA lbs are cheaper on average, but that doesn't mean you don't take a guy at 20 if you believe the player is a true impact player.  after so many years of bad drafts, stupid trades, poor risks and just plain old busts, i'm happy when the jets draft a player and i'm watching him his rookie year and all of a sudden he makes a nice play and the announcers mention it.  just give me good football players to watch.  give me guys who don't suck.  sure i wish they'd draft an offensive player in the first round at some point, or ever again.  as long as they don't draft guys like stephen hill, coples and kyle wilson i'm ok with the positions they draft.

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1 hour ago, Mainejet said:

First of all, the only reason why Buchanan was used that way was out of necessity. It's not like he knew all along this was going to work. He was forced to do patchwork. It also only worked because of the personnel surrounding Buchanan and even then it was "LIMITED" success. I'm not so sure the Jets have that same personnel to aid the little guy.

But here's the biggest reason of all, just because you may have experienced some limited success with a shrimp playing linebacker, DOESN'T mean you go right out next time and pick a f*cking midget. How about looking for the guy with the prototypical size to play in the 3-4 and the speed you're looking for? What a novel idea. Crazy I know...

LOL at "prototypical" sized LBers. You're still living in the 1980s.  

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3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

LOL at "prototypical" sized LBers. You're still living in the 1980s.  

 

Lawrence Julius Taylor (L.T.)

Position: LB 
Height: 6-3    Weight: 237 lbs.

 

Born: February 4, 1959 in Williamsburg, VA (Age 57.095) 
High School: Lafayette
College: North Carolina   (school history) 
Drafted by the New York Giants in the 1st round (2nd overall) of the 1981 NFL Draft.

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2 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

 

Lawrence Julius Taylor (L.T.)

Position: LB 
Height: 6-3    Weight: 237 lbs.

 

Born: February 4, 1959 in Williamsburg, VA (Age 57.095) 
High School: Lafayette
College: North Carolina   (school history) 
Drafted by the New York Giants in the 1st round (2nd overall) of the 1981 NFL Draft.

Outside linebacker, pass rusher.

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The guy who played ILB next to Harris last year was 6'2", 239lbs. Was he "undersized"? Did he get overwhelmed consistently by blockers? No.

What he DID get was beaten in a foot race by any RB that he tried to cover out the backfield.

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6 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

maybe FA lbs are cheaper on average, but that doesn't mean you don't take a guy at 20 if you believe the player is a true impact player.  after so many years of bad drafts, stupid trades, poor risks and just plain old busts, i'm happy when the jets draft a player and i'm watching him his rookie year and all of a sudden he makes a nice play and the announcers mention it.  just give me good football players to watch.  give me guys who don't suck.  sure i wish they'd draft an offensive player in the first round at some point, or ever again.  as long as they don't draft guys like stephen hill, coples and kyle wilson i'm ok with the positions they draft.

That's not the same thing. No one is advocating the ludicrous idea that they should draft a bust at an expensive position instead of a good player at a cheap position. And it's not that he's a LB, because if he was an outside pass-rushing OLB I wouldn't say 'boo' about it. 

I'm saying apples and apples, if you have equally good prospects at 2 positions. One plays an expensive position and one plays a cheap position, the former is the smarter draft pick. 

If all we needed was a sideline to sideline ILB with little to no bust potential then get one in free agency for $7M and use the 1st round pick on a player that will cost $14M to replace in FA (if such a player ever hits FA in the first place).

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16 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

LOL at "prototypical" sized LBers. You're still living in the 1980s.  

unbelievable, isn't it?  It's like he's been blind for the last decade.

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45 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Burning 3 of our last 5 top-50 picks (and 2 of our last 3 top-20 picks) on ILB, S, and TE. Literally the 3 cheapest positions to fill in free agency. The big break in that was taking a DE #6 overall when we already had a pair of 24-25 year old stud DEs in the same mold. lol

http://i.imgur.com/lKTepns.gif

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

That's not the same thing. No one is advocating the ludicrous idea that they should draft a bust at an expensive position instead of a good player at a cheap position. 

I'm saying apples and apples, if you have equally good prospects at 2 positions. One plays an expensive position and one plays a cheap position, the former is the smarter draft pick. 

If all we needed was a sideline to sideline ILB with little to no bust potential then get one in free agency for $7M and use the 1st round pick on a player that will cost $14M to replace in FA (if such a player ever hits FA in the first place).

you make it sound like it's easy to find a guy like lee in FA, but it isn't.  

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17 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

He has a faster 40 time then LT so are you saying he couldn't be a OLB??

I'm saying he is not an olb and the jets have shown zero indication that he will be an olb.  If we had drafted a guy his size coming off of a 15 sack olb season I'd go hurrah!  We have a pass rusher!

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