Gas2No99 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 What advanced stats say about Ryan Fitzpatrick's 2015 season By Dom Cosentino | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Still unclear on why the Jets are playing hardball with Ryan Fitzpatrick when Geno Smith is their fallback plan if Fitzpatrick can't be re-signed? A few advanced stats ought to answer any questions. Before we begin, let's stipulate that Fitzpatrick is undoubtedly the Jets' best option for 2016, if only because he's proven he can run the offense effectively and win—something Smith was unable to do in his two seasons before the whole IK Enemkpali thing. The Jets and Fitzpatrick are at odds because the Jets see Fitzpatrick as right guy for 2016, but not for the future. Which is why they don't want to commit much to Fitzpatrick beyond one year. But why, given that Fitzpatrick threw for a franchise-record 31 touchdown passes while winning 10 games? Cian Fahey of Football Outsiders has an explanation in his "Pre-Snap Reads Quarterback Catalogue 2016," which analyzed quarterbacks who threw at least 250 passes last season. The book can be purchased here. It's worth a glance. Some of Fahey's findings on Fitzpatrick: • Fitzpatrick, Fahey said, benefitted from having seven Simple Yards After Catch touchdowns, which are defined as passes that do not travel more than two yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Fahey studied the 35 quarterbacks who threw Fahey whose film studied Only Matt Ryan of the Falcons (eight) had more Simple YAC touchdowns—an indication that Fitzpatrick relied heavily on plays made by his receivers. • Fahey calculated that Fitzpatrick racked up 995 Simple YAC yards on 115 attempts. That means 25.5 percent of his yardage came on Simple YAC plays and those plays accounted for just 20.5 percent of his attempts." • Accuracy percentage? Fitzpatrick came in at 72 percent, which was second-worst, with only Jameis Winston of the Bucs (71.9 percent) below him. • Fahey calculated that while Fitzpatrick threw 15 interceptions last year, Fitzpatrick had also thrown an interceptable pass on one out of every 18.7 of his throws. And 13 of Fitzpatrick's 30 interceptable passes—the second-highest total in the league—came during the Jets' first four games. Is there any guarantee Smith will match Fitzpatrick, or even be better than him? Of course not. But Fahey's numbers go a long way toward quantifying why the Jets have drawn a line in the sand with Fitzpatrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 All of this, yet they named him the starter after the season. I honestly can't figure out why they didn't announce that there would be a QB competition for the job this season. Not sure they could possibly think any less of Geno. If Fitz was this bad, why is he still their guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetdawgg Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 The Jets are the only team that Fitz can hold out on. This is a major league embarrassment. The inexperienced FO has really learned some lessons here. Fitz cannot hit the deep throw on a consistent basis. Geno has a better arm. This will be a major factor in the upcoming season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j4jets Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 51 minutes ago, AFJF said: All of this, yet they named him the starter after the season. I honestly can't figure out why they didn't announce that there would be a QB competition for the job this season. Not sure they could possibly think any less of Geno. If Fitz was this bad, why is he still their guy? Last I checked, Jets didn't roll out the red carpet for Fitz n he's still collecting his unemployment checks from the state. Remember when Revis was supposed to be a Jet for life but he ended up winning the Pats a SB? Yeah, it's the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashmouth Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 1 hour ago, AFJF said: All of this, yet they named him the starter after the season. I honestly can't figure out why they didn't announce that there would be a QB competition for the job this season. Not sure they could possibly think any less of Geno. If Fitz was this bad, why is he still their guy? because this guy and his article are bullsh*t since Fitz had more air yards and some of the least YAC in the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 You ever notice these "woulda, coulda, shoulda" advance stats are never used to judge Geno Smith in 2013 and 2014? You know why? Because he was already the worst QB in the NFL with his ACTUAL Stats. There is no need to artificially manipulate his stats worse to make him look bad. The advance stats might just make Geno the worst QB in NFL history. So probably best we ignore them, because he is the next Aaron Rodgers, or so I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Stopped reading after "still the best option for 2016". Everything else doesn't matter when you accept that as fact. Which it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no psls Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 2 hours ago, Warfish said: The advance stats might just make Geno the worst QB in NFL history. Give that man a cigar ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowlesMovement Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Football Outsiders have Fitzptrick ranked 15th amongst anyone throwing 200 passes or more, when using advanced stats(DVOA). As a PhD in Applied Mathematics, none of these idiot sites using advanced statistics are doing it remotely correctly, including Football Outsiders. Advanced stats work much better for baseball than they do Football, and too many factors cannot be properly accounted for that have tremendous influence on these statistics. And then all of the Geno lovers wave their around every time they find some hack wannabe statistician who post an article like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 5 hours ago, j4jets said: Last I checked, Jets didn't roll out the red carpet for Fitz n he's still collecting his unemployment checks from the state. Remember when Revis was supposed to be a Jet for life but he ended up winning the Pats a SB? Yeah, it's the NFL. Right, but nobody said anything about anyone rolling out the red carpet. I asked why he was "their guy" which is another way of asking why the Jets named Fitz their starter back in January and have stuck to that line since that time, contract offer remaining on the table despite very little cap space and going so far as to leave his locker empty during OTA's and mini-camp, refusing to issue it to any player currently under contract. Why are they doing all of those things if he's as bad as this article suggests? If he were that bad, he should have a legit shot to supplant Geno in being voted worst QB in the NFL, not an offer to be anybody's starting QB...Jets included. Just odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateJetsGuru Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 I suppose Fitz should reconsider exploiting those mismatches and dumping it off to receivers for those easy TD's so he can score higher on advanced stats. I guess nobody factors in when Tom Brady has ten seconds to sit in the pocket and scan the field three times over as his o-linemen have vice grips on the d-linemen. The hell with these stats...clearly for people with too much time on their hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 8 hours ago, Gas2No99 said: What advanced stats say about Ryan Fitzpatrick's 2015 season By Dom Cosentino | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Still unclear on why the Jets are playing hardball with Ryan Fitzpatrick when Geno Smith is their fallback plan if Fitzpatrick can't be re-signed? A few advanced stats ought to answer any questions. Before we begin, let's stipulate that Fitzpatrick is undoubtedly the Jets' best option for 2016, if only because he's proven he can run the offense effectively and win—something Smith was unable to do in his two seasons before the whole IK Enemkpali thing. I cant do that because the underlined portion of this isnt correct. Fitz proved that he can run the offense...sure, but thats not something Smith was "unable" to do in his 2 seasons given that this offense wasnt the offense that Geno was in during those 2 seasons before the whole IK thing. Anyone reading that part without knowledge of the offense would suggest that the offense was the same when it wasnt at all. I do agree with the article generally though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnyjet Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 9 hours ago, AFJF said: All of this, yet they named him the starter after the season. I honestly can't figure out why they didn't announce that there would be a QB competition for the job this season. Not sure they could possibly think any less of Geno. If Fitz was this bad, why is he still their guy? Because they know Geno is a lot worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 8 hours ago, Jetdawgg said: The Jets are the only team that Fitz can hold out on. This is a major league embarrassment. The inexperienced FO has really learned some lessons here. Fitz cannot hit the deep throw on a consistent basis. Geno has a better arm. This will be a major factor in the upcoming season. despite geno having a stronger arm, he cannot hit a deep throw on a consistent basis,either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villain The Foe Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Just now, ylekram said: despite geno having a stronger arm, he cannot hit a deep throw on a consistent basis,either More consistent than Fitz, and that consistency isnt one-sided either. I would make the claim that having better targets to throw to downfield would make the possibility for a completion higher as well. Throwing to Brandon Marshall is not like throwing to David Nelson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 6 hours ago, Warfish said: You ever notice these "woulda, coulda, shoulda" advance stats are never used to judge Geno Smith in 2013 and 2014? You know why? Because he was already the worst QB in the NFL with his ACTUAL Stats. There is no need to artificially manipulate his stats worse to make him look bad. The advance stats might just make Geno the worst QB in NFL history. So probably best we ignore them, because he is the next Aaron Rodgers, or so I hear. You insist on viewing everything completely out of context. Comparing two QBs when not taking their situation into account is ridiculous. You mean to tell me that: 1. Chan Gailey is not a significant upgrade over MM? 2. That Chan Gailey does not run one of the simplest most QB friendly offenses in the NFL? 3. That are offensive weapons in 2015 were not DRAMATICALLY better than they were in 2013 and 2014? Greg Salas was the #1 receiver in some games 4. That Rex did not have a serious negative impact on the offense which his insistence on wildcat plays 5 That our schedule last year was not significantly easier in 2015 than 2014? In 2014, we had to face in the first 10 weeks Brady, Manning, Rogers, Rivers and Roethlisberger. And then Brady again for good measure. Last year we faced Brady twice, And Luck if you want to include him, but he is overrated and was hurt 6. We did not have maybe the best 1/2 WR combo in the NFL last year both with significant size to catch errant balls? I can go on and on. Evaluating both Geno and Fitz without context is idiotic. In your mind, Fitz was solely responsible for his play last year and all the factors above had no factor in him just all of a sudden having his best season ever. No. He is a mediocre QB that had a good season almost solely because of these factors and still threw 15 interceptions and choked when it mattered Three times. Despite your hate, Geno has a better arm, is just as accurate, has better legs, and is not as football dumb as you think. You seem to forget that if not for one of the most idiotic timeouts ever, we would have beat GB because of a perfect Geno audible. And the Buffalo game every one loves to bring up, Geno was literally told to force the ball to Harvin open or not. Situations MATTER in the NFL. And team and individual performance is tied to that situation. Schedules MATTER, the Parcells "you are" mantra is BS. It is why there are 5-6 new teams in the playoffs every year. Comparing a 1st and 2nd year rookie in the worst possible situation possible for a young QB to a veteran QB that had maybe the single best situation in the NFL for a QB, and ignoring that context is just ludicrous. It is a fact that Fitz is no where near as good as he looked last year, and Geno is no where remotely near as bad as he has looked in his first two years. Cue the intelligent "Geno sucks" argument, followed by the "Geno is dumb" argument and of course the "he deserved getting his jaw broken" argument none of which have even a shred of intelligence or thought behind them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 7 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said: More consistent than Fitz, and that consistency isnt one-sided either. I would make the claim that having better targets to throw to downfield would make the possibility for a completion higher as well. Throwing to Brandon Marshall is not like throwing to David Nelson. yes, throwing deep is not fitz's strength, to say the least. it is not genos strength either. geno was just as inconsistent as fitz with the long ball. this isn't even debatable. and since when did Brandon marshal become a great deep threat? let me guess. the moment fitz started throwing to him. the 2015 jets had a better receiving corps overall, but I wouldn't say they were better deep threats than what geno had in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 41 minutes ago, johnnyjet said: Because they know Geno is a lot worse. Evidence suggest nothing of the sort. If they thought Geno was a lot worse they would have signed him by now. Gailey has flat out said a couple times that Geno is better. They chose Geno before the start of last season. Bowles wants Fitz because he is more comfortable with veteran QBs and has the defensive coach mindset that if my veteran guy does not lose the game I can win with defense. That is the reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 1 minute ago, johnnysd said: Evidence suggest nothing of the sort. If they thought Geno was a lot worse they would have signed him by now. Gailey has flat out said a couple times that Geno is better. They chose Geno before the start of last season. Bowles wants Fitz because he is more comfortable with veteran QBs and has the defensive coach mindset that if my veteran guy does not lose the game I can win with defense. That is the reality. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snell41 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Shoulda coulda woulda stats are meaningless. You look at his body of work as a whole. 11 years in the league, 10 of which involved mediocrity, head scratchingly bad play at times, zero playoff appearances, and a sh*t the bed moment when he finally had a playoff opportunity. His best season of his career came against a historically week schedule, and his last time he glimmered any evidence of hope and got rewarded for it he sh*t the bed completely. Add to that the fact that historically with the exception of Gqnnon old QB's that suddenly spike when they're old rarely ever sustain at that level. Everything in the evidence book shows that what we saw was an anomaly, not a trend. But we're so desperate that people want to throw all the money on the 00 on the roulette wheel and just pray we hit this one time. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, ylekram said: link? Anxious to see these articles as well. Never once have I heard Gailey say Geno is the better QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyLV Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 21 minutes ago, ylekram said: link? Should be able to find it if you look. One was his preseason press conference last year, and there was an interview recently where he said similar things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Cian Fahey is the furthest thing away from advanced stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saul Goodman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 9 hours ago, Jetdawgg said: The Jets are the only team that Fitz can hold out on. This is a major league embarrassment. The inexperienced FO has really learned some lessons here. Fitz cannot hit the deep throw on a consistent basis. Geno has a better arm. This will be a major factor in the upcoming season. Petty's arm is at least equal to Geno's. Hack's arm is significantly stronger than Geno's. If we made the depth chart based on arm strength, Geno still wouldn't be the starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 6 minutes ago, johnnysd said: Should be able to find it if you look. One was his preseason press conference last year, and there was an interview recently where he said similar things I have read every post on this board since 2005 and I have yet to read a quote from chan gailey stating that geno is a "flat out" better qb than ryan fitzpatrick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetdawgg Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 3 hours ago, ylekram said: despite geno having a stronger arm, he cannot hit a deep throw on a consistent basis,either Throwing to Clyde Gates and David Nelson may be a factor in that effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ylekram Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 19 minutes ago, Jetdawgg said: Throwing to Clyde Gates and David Nelson may be a factor in that effort ahh, the ol' "all poor geno had was clyde gates and david nelson" argument. surely you can do better than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warfish Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: You insist on viewing everything completely out of context. And you insist on making the same old tired excuses for the worst QB in the NFL in 2013 and 2014. 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: In your mind, Fitz was solely responsible for his play last year Of course Fitz is responsible for HIS play. Same way every player is responsible for their own play. I'm sorry, was someone holding Fitz's (or Geno's) arm and forcing them to throw a pass a certain way? The fact that Geno fans think Geno is not responsible for his own play....just laughable. Having bad WR's doesn't make you throw bad INT's into DB's chests or to fumble any time you're tocuhed or the run backwards and out of bounds moving your team out of FG range. That's on the player who made those decisions and performed those actions. 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: He is a mediocre QB that had a good season almost solely because of these factors and still threw 15 interceptions and choked when it mattered Three times. And Geno, until proven otherwise in games that count, is the worst QB in the NFL. 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: Despite your hate, Geno has a better arm, is just as accurate, has better legs, and is not as football dumb as you think. For the millionth time, it's not "hate" chuckles. And yes, he has a better arm. Yes he has better legs (although he is worse and less intelligent at using them). No, he is not as accurate. And no, he's not football smart, at least he hasn't proven he is as yet. He was one of the dumbest ball-control QB's in the NFL in 2013 and 2014, his decision making was horrific. 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: You seem to forget that if not for one of the most idiotic timeouts ever, we would have beat GB because of a perfect Geno audible. And the Buffalo game every one loves to bring up, Geno was literally told to force the ball to Harvin open or not. I hear in "advance stats" that means we can award Geno another win, and take away an incompletion. 4 hours ago, johnnysd said: It is a fact that Fitz is no where near as good as he looked last year, and Geno is no where remotely near as bad as he has looked in his first two years. Ok, then Geno can prove it and make me stfu. We have one of the most talented rosters in Jets history right now. If Geno is what you think, he'll win the job even if Fitz is resigned, and he'll have an exceptionally successful season with all this talent around him. That'd be f'ing AWESOME. I HOPE that happens. I just don't THINK it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin L Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 I don't care much for "advanced stats". Anyone actually watching the games knows that the WR's bailed Fitz out quite a bit. They probably saved him from throwing an extra 5 INT's, and added a few TD's that he might not have gotten with lesser receivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 4 hours ago, Matt39 said: Cian Fahey is the furthest thing away from advanced stats. #neverforget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 TC camp can't come fast enough. I don't know what I'm more sick of, talking about Ryan "I've been a backup my whole life" Fitzpatrick" ... Or the people in here masquerading as jets fans Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetdawgg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 5 hours ago, ylekram said: ahh, the ol' "all poor geno had was clyde gates and david nelson" argument. surely you can do better than that Facts are indisputable. Pretty stubborn things. Neither WR seems to be in the NFL either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewilly12 Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, Jetdawgg said: Facts are indisputable. Pretty stubborn things. Neither WR seems to be in the NFL either. Dont forget the OC MM who was a moron and that clown of a head coach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 8 minutes ago, Jetdawgg said: Facts are indisputable. Pretty stubborn things. Neither WR seems to be in the NFL either. David Nelson in 2011 with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB: 61 receptions, 658 yds, 5 TD's David Nelson with Geno Smith: Out of the NFL Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetdawgg Posted July 10, 2016 Share Posted July 10, 2016 1 hour ago, AFJF said: David Nelson in 2011 with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB: 61 receptions, 658 yds, 5 TD's David Nelson with Geno Smith: Out of the NFL Interesting. No mention of Clyde Gates that notable WR....can't leave out the facts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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