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What advanced stats say about Ryan Fitzpatrick's 2015 season


Gas2No99

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1 minute ago, Jetdawgg said:

No mention of Clyde Gates that notable WR....can't leave out the facts

Clyde Gates sucked.

How many times did Geno miss wide open receivers for what would have been game-winning/changing TD's.

Too many.

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

Geno never had the offense or the coaching Fitz inherited here. 

Right...because you can only hit a WIDE OPEN receiver if you have a coach to tell you how to.  

Even the worst QB's in the NFL can hit a guy with some of the windows Geno had.

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2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Right...because you can only hit a WIDE OPEN receiver if you have a coach to tell you how to.  

Even the worst QB's in the NFL can hit a guy with some of the windows Geno had.

Who Clyde Gates or David Nelson neither of them knew how to run a route let alone catch the ball. 

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

Who Clyde Gates or David Nelson neither of them knew how to run a route let alone catch the ball. 

No, I"m talking about guys like Percy Harvin and Jeremy Kerley.  Both established vets who have proven they can catch the football if it's on target.  Saw Geno miss them on easy TD's many times in one-score games.

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

Who Clyde Gates or David Nelson neither of them knew how to run a route let alone catch the ball. 

David Nelson didn't seem to have much trouble running routes or catching the ball when he was on the field with Fitz as his starting QB.  Strange, isn't it?

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Just now, AFJF said:

No, I"m talking about guys like Percy Harvin and Jeremy Kerley.  Both established vets who have proven they can catch the football if it's on target.  Saw Geno miss them on easy TD's many times in one-score games.

Who? Harvin sucked here hurt most of the season Kerley theres a Pro Bowler how did he work out for the Jets. 

Try again. 

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Just now, joewilly12 said:

Who? Harvin sucked here hurt most of the season Kerley theres a Pro Bowler how did he work out for the Jets. 

Try again. 

Never Geno's fault.

Misses wide open receivers by 10+ yards who are begging for the ball and it's their fault.  Some pretty objective stuff right there....LOL

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2 minutes ago, AFJF said:

Never Geno's fault.

Misses wide open receivers by 10+ yards who are begging for the ball and it's their fault.  Some pretty objective stuff right there....LOL

Ditto its never Fitzpatricks fault like the 3 INTs to end our season in a big game 

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3 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Ditto its never Fitzpatricks fault like the 3 INTs to end our season in a big game 

FYI...31 TD's 15 INT's is better than 18 TD's 18 INT's

If any player is doing enough good, you live with the bad.  When a guy is bad enough to be voted worst in the NFL at his position, the plays he fails to make when they present themselves deserve more scrutiny.

Fact of life.

Infinitely happy that Mac and Bowles agree with the Fitz camp on this one.

Now, shouldn't you go back to finding more Patriots highlights to post?  

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2 hours ago, AFJF said:

David Nelson in 2011 with Ryan Fitzpatrick playing QB:

61 receptions, 658 yds, 5 TD's

David Nelson with Geno Smith:

Out of the NFL

Interesting.

 

 

That's not interesting at all. Gailey was the one who schemed Nelson's 650 yards (terrible) and 5 TDs (red zone). Geno meanwhile had a post knee surgery David Nelson with MM, who can't scheme his way out of a paper bag. David Nelson is out of the NFL because he lost Gailey, not because he lost Fitz. Nelson isn't a NFL level receiver which is why other teams don't want him, just like Fitzpatrick isn't a good starter, which is why NFL teams don't want him.

Moving on, the more interesting thing is Decker's efficiency with Geno on the field versus Fitzpatrick. When Decker was recovering from injury and Geno's #1 drawing the defense's attention, he amassed a higher yards per reception than he did with Fitz and Gailey. This presupposes Decker can be more efficient with Geno than Fitz.

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5 minutes ago, elgoman said:

 

That's not interesting at all. Gailey was the one who schemed Nelson's 650 yards (terrible) and 5 TDs (red zone). Geno meanwhile had a post knee surgery David Nelson with MM, who can't scheme his way out of a paper bag. David Nelson is out of the NFL because he lost Gailey, not because he lost Fitz. Nelson isn't a NFL level receiver which is why other teams don't want him, just like Fitzpatrick isn't a good starter, which is why NFL teams don't want him.

Moving on, the more interesting thing is Decker's efficiency with Geno on the field versus Fitzpatrick. When Decker was recovering from injury and Geno's #1 with a higher receiving share than last year, he amassed a higher yards per reception than he did with Fitz and Gailey. This presupposes Decker can be more efficient with Geno than Fitz.

Interesting that even though Geno had an awesome week 17 two years ago, the Jets still want Fitz to start.

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@AFJF

Fitz hasn't bee resigned and has effectively been replaced by Geno. If Fitz was considered a starter here or anywhere, he would have been signed as a starter a long time ago, same as every other QB in the league. Months ago now, Osweiler was given a ridiculous contract for getting benched by Peyton. RG3 too was given the starter reins despise failing multiple times. But I digress: teams just don't want Fitz because he sucks. They don't care about that empty 30 TD stat against sh*t teams. Geno will start here hence and if he fails, we will draft another QB. Whatever happens, Fitz will probably never start here again. You can keep holding out hope though.

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17 minutes ago, elgoman said:

@AFJF

Fitz hasn't bee resigned and has effectively been replaced by Geno. If Fitz was considered a starter here or anywhere, he would have been signed as a starter a long time ago, same as every other QB in the league. Months ago now, Osweiler was given a ridiculous contract for getting benched by Peyton. RG3 too was given the starter reins despise failing multiple times. But I digress: teams just don't want Fitz because he sucks. They don't care about that empty 30 TD stat against sh*t teams. Geno will start here hence and if he fails, we will draft another QB. Whatever happens, Fitz will probably never start here again. You can keep holding out hope though.

The Jets want Fitz.  As a Jets fan, that's my only real concern.  

They have an offer in the table waiting for him and even refused to give up his locker to anyone during OTAs and mini camp.

Every single action this FO had made regarding the QB positionsince arriving tells us they don't want Geno beyond this season (if that).

If they did, why haven't we heard any word of a long-term deal to keep the young, strong-armed QB locked up before he hits free agency?

Only reason Fitz isn't signed is because he's playing the waiting game.  He'll sign when he's ready.

If he screws this up, he's a moron.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Jets want Fitz.  As a Jets fan, that's my only real concern.  

They have an offer in the table waiting for him and even refused to give up his locker to anyone during OTAs and mini camp.

Every single action this FO had made regarding the QB positionsince arriving tells us they don't want Geno beyond this season (if that).

If they did, why haven't we heard any word of a long-term deal to keep the young, strong-armed QB locked up before he hits free agency?

 

The team's symbolic actions towards Fitz don't mean anything. There's no money and no commitment, not even a roster spot, for symbolism. Take them what for what you will but Mac's lack of movement on Fitz--when everyone else in the league snatched up their QB as soon as possible--is proof enough. Moving on, if the team didn't want Geno here for 2016, he would be gone. On the contrary he's here and taking Fitz's position. Geno's contract talks will begin and end based on his performance this year, as they should. Fitz won't in the conversation either way. He failed last year and will never get another real chance to starter here even if Geno fails too. We'll just draft another QB.

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57 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I love that we're living in an age of internet where basic multiplication = advanced stats. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that aliens know we exist and they just want nothing to do with us. 

But do you have the stats to back up such a statement? Yeah, I thought not.

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5 hours ago, Jetdawgg said:

How do you know if the proper route was completed?

Actually, I am pretty sure that PFF and other Advanced statistics groups have shown that on only 11.74% of the passes thrown by Geno, the routes were run correctly. And making matters worse, 99.84% of the time, on passes thrown by Fitzpatrick, the routes were all run correctly. Even Devin Smith's routes were all proven to be 100% perfect. I think there was one exception, but it was statistically proven to have no impact on the play, because it was the 7th option on that play.

So from an advanced statistics perspective, Geno would have likely gone 14-2 or 15-1 last year had IK not KO'd him, and Geno was the starting QB of the Jets. So all of you Geno Loving/Fitz loathing Jets fans out there have been proved correct. Congratulations, you all should get together and ride the short bus to the Golden Coral and rock the sh!t out of that all you can eat buffet!

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9 hours ago, AFJF said:

Right...because you can only hit a WIDE OPEN receiver if you have a coach to tell you how to.  

Even the worst QB's in the NFL can hit a guy with some of the windows Geno had.

Yeah, the difference in accuracy between Geno throwing to an injured Decker and little else clearly pales in comparison to Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to Marshall and Decker against historically weak competition. 

Geno comp% 2014: 59.7

Fitz comp% in 2015: 59.6

Easily worth that 3/$24M offer, or really whatever he needs to grace the Jets with his presence. 

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8 hours ago, AFJF said:

Every single action this FO had made regarding the QB positionsince arriving tells us they don't want Geno beyond this season (if that).

If they did, why haven't we heard any word of a long-term deal to keep the young, strong-armed QB locked up before he hits free agency?

Only reason Fitz isn't signed is because he's playing the waiting game.  He'll sign when he's ready.

If he screws this up, he's a moron.

+1

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4 minutes ago, slats said:

Yeah, the difference in accuracy between Geno throwing to an injured Decker and little else clearly pales in comparison to Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to Marshall and Decker against historically weak competition. 

Geno comp% 2014: 59.7

Fitz comp% in 2015: 59.6

Easily worth that 3/$24M offer, or really whatever he needs to grace the Jets with his presence. 

If Macc and Bowles saw it that way, why hasn't Geno been wrapped up for 3/$24M and the offer to Fitz revoked?

What do you think Macc and Bowles see in Geno that you don't, or vice versa, to explain this?

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Just now, Warfish said:

If Macc and Bowles saw it that way, why hasn't Geno been wrapped up for 3/$24M and the offer to Fitz revoked?

Don't know, although it would appear to have nothing to do with accuracy. 

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8 hours ago, elgoman said:

The team's symbolic actions towards Fitz don't mean anything. There's no money and no commitment, not even a roster spot, for symbolism. Take them what for what you will but Mac's lack of movement on Fitz--when everyone else in the league snatched up their QB as soon as possible--is proof enough. Moving on, if the team didn't want Geno here for 2016, he would be gone. On the contrary he's here and taking Fitz's position. Geno's contract talks will begin and end based on his performance this year, as they should. Fitz won't in the conversation either way. He failed last year and will never get another real chance to starter here even if Geno fails too. We'll just draft another QB.

A standing contract offer is a pretty significant "symbol" when paired with the promise of the starting job if your trying to make the point that they don't want him.  

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14 minutes ago, slats said:

Yeah, the difference in accuracy between Geno throwing to an injured Decker and little else clearly pales in comparison to Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to Marshall and Decker against historically weak competition. 

Geno comp% 2014: 59.7

Fitz comp% in 2015: 59.6

Easily worth that 3/$24M offer, or really whatever he needs to grace the Jets with his presence. 

Care to discuss the wide open/healthy wide receivers he failed to hit for what should've been easy touchdowns in games that the Jets lost by a TD or less?  No, no you don't.  Let's just keep talking about Clyde Gates and David Nelson.

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8 hours ago, elgoman said:

The team's symbolic actions towards Fitz don't mean anything. There's no money and no commitment, not even a roster spot, for symbolism. Take them what for what you will but Mac's lack of movement on Fitz--when everyone else in the league snatched up their QB as soon as possible--is proof enough. Moving on, if the team didn't want Geno here for 2016, he would be gone. On the contrary he's here and taking Fitz's position. Geno's contract talks will begin and end based on his performance this year, as they should. Fitz won't in the conversation either way. He failed last year and will never get another real chance to starter here even if Geno fails too. We'll just draft another QB.

Somewhat off topic...while I disagree with a lot of thisI think you're the first anti-Fitz guy I've seen on here in quite some time who's not resorting to personal attacks in defense of your guy.  Refreshing.

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6 hours ago, Jetdawgg said:

How do you know if the proper route was completed?

How do you know any receivers ran the right routes on any of FItz's INT's?

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18 minutes ago, slats said:

Don't know, although it would appear to have nothing to do with accuracy. 

So is it time to fire these guys yet?  Seriously...do the Jets really need another GM who can't identify talent at the QB position and compounding it by offering a mult-year deal to a clearly limited journeyman while allowing Geno the chance to drive his asking price up to $20+ million per season when they can likely sign him for far less right now?

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1 hour ago, BowlesMovement said:

Actually, I am pretty sure that PFF and other Advanced statistics groups have shown that on only 11.74% of the passes thrown by Geno, the routes were run correctly. And making matters worse, 99.84% of the time, on passes thrown by Fitzpatrick, the routes were all run correctly. Even Devin Smith's routes were all proven to be 100% perfect. I think there was one exception, but it was statistically proven to have no impact on the play, because it was the 7th option on that play.

So from an advanced statistics perspective, Geno would have likely gone 14-2 or 15-1 last year had IK not KO'd him, and Geno was the starting QB of the Jets. So all of you Geno Loving/Fitz loathing Jets fans out there have been proved correct. Congratulations, you all should get together and ride the short bus to the Golden Coral and rock the sh!t out of that all you can eat buffet!

I could care less about PFF stats. Outside Of Decker Geno has had only 3rd rated WR's to sling to for a full season. Furthermore, I am a Jets fan. Geno is on the NY Jets. Fitz is a FA who is unsigned by the Jets or any other team. I really don't see the argument  over Fitz as making sense.

He is not on the team so why put any energy into that? Finally Golden Corral has a good breakfast offering and provides free meals to Veterans on Veteran's Day. They actually support the troops.

SF

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21 hours ago, ylekram said:

yes, throwing deep is not fitz's strength, to say the least. it is not genos strength either. geno was just as inconsistent as fitz with the long ball. this isn't even debatable. and since when did Brandon marshal become a great deep threat? let me guess. the moment fitz started throwing to him.  the 2015 jets had a better receiving corps overall, but I wouldn't say they were better deep threats than what geno had in 2014

Geno isnt an 11 year vet and has potential upside, especially with better targets. Fitzpatrick is who he is even with those better targets. THAT my friend is what isnt even debatable. 

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14 minutes ago, AFJF said:

How do you know any receivers ran the right routes on any of FItz's INT's?

Decker and Marshall are the best tandem in the game right now. Clearly they are professional route runners. Your argument is not holding up here.

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Just now, Jetdawgg said:

Decker and Marshall are the best tandem in the game right now. Clearly they are professional route runners. Your argument is not holding up here.

So we assume everyone was right when Fitz was on the field, and everyone was wrong when Geno was on the field. 

Seem legit.

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14 minutes ago, AFJF said:

So is it time to fire these guys yet?  Seriously...do the Jets really need another GM who can't identify talent at the QB position and compounding it by offering a mult-year deal to a clearly limited journeyman while allowing Geno the chance to drive his asking price up to $20+ million per season when they can likely sign him for far less right now?

I hope not. I'm glad they're standing firm with their excessive offer and not making it any more excessive, I'll be disappointed if that changes. 

As for your all important exaggerated bloviations regarding Geno Smith, just understand that I could give a rats ass about Geno Smith. I don't expect him to be on the team beyond this season, and I won't miss him when he's gone. It's just that I don't think Fitz is worth $15M guaranteed more than him. At all. If/when he signs the offer on the table, I hope he proves to be a better mentor than he is a QB. 

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Just now, slats said:

I hope not. I'm glad they're standing firm with their excessive offer and not making it any more excessive, I'll be disappointed if that changes. 

As for your all important exaggerated bloviations regarding Geno Smith, just understand that I could give a rats ass about Geno Smith. I don't expect him to be on the team beyond this season, and I won't miss him when he's gone. It's just that I don't think Fitz is worth $15M guaranteed more than him. At all. If/when he signs the offer on the table, I hope he proves to be a better mentor than he is a QB. 

This is why I asked about the status of the GM.  Even I don't think Fitz will be 7x better than Geno, yet they're willing to pay him that much more.  Kind of the basis of my saying this FO has zero faith in Geno.  If they do, then the standing offer to Fitz makes zero sense.

I don't think it's just Geno's atrocious play on the field either...they've drafted two  young QBs to develop.  They can have them learn from watching Fitz prepare and execute a game plan or from watching Geno prepare and execute.  I assume they'd rather not have the guy who got his face caved in by a teammate and then blamed equally by the head coach and arguably the best player the team has ever employed.

If Bowles had come out at the end of last season and said "Nice season for Fitz, but he's gotta' beat Geno out next year" then I'd be totally on board with giving Geno a shot. Instead, he said Fitz is our starter w/o any competition, and Petty will get a shot to take Geno's no. 2 job.

So again, if they have any faith in Geno at all, they've got a strange way of showing it.

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