What advanced stats say about Ryan Fitzpatrick's 2015 season

[win4ever]

I guess Rex Ryan's defense wasn't putting enough pressure of Fitz to succeed.  

As for the OC, it's really the system that makes the difference.  Gailey runs a spread system that is designed to take advantage of mismatches.  You'll see plenty of cases where WRs to both sides of the line run the exact same route, it's designed to have the QB pick out what the defense is doing and adjusting accordingly, while not having major changes for the WR.  MM ran a West Coast system that is based on explicit timing, essentially saying, on precise timing, you throw here and it'll be open.  It works well when the QB has great timing and there are good WRs.  No system in the world is going to work, when a QB is adjusting to the NFL, and there are pretty much guys off the street running around.  On the other hand, I do believe MM would have had a better year last year with the current cast than in years past, just might not have been as good as Gailey's.   

[Villain The Foe]

3 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Most should see him for what he is, an ok at best QB who's never won squat, had his first season with better than 6 wins, someone who has never made the playoffs.  I'm 11 seasons.  With the chance to fix that he shlts the bed.  I'll say it again.  If Geno won 10 games but sucked as badly as Fitz did against the Bills 2xs, the Pats and against any teams with a decent D they would have called for his head mid season.    Not made excuses by blaming the entire team for loses while crediting Fitz for wins, while shltting on Marshall - Decker.  

You're absolutely right. 

Think about it, Geno Smith gets hammered for having a 2TD, 1INT, 270 yard, 65% comp game against the Raiders. The excuses is that the team didnt believe in him so that's what caused Antonio Cromartie to get smoked up and down the field, for Marcus Williams to have his worst game as a Jet, for the entire Jets defense to basically forget how to tackle for 60 mins. 

Meanwhile, If Fitz had that exact same game do you know what we would have heard about that Raiders game? We would have heard about how terrible Cro was and how Marcus Williams had a bad game and how Michael Crabtree broke 15 tackles and turned an intermediate gain into a long TD.

 

Another example. If Fitz would have gotten hurt in both Bills games and Geno would have come in and completed 45% of his passes in the first game and threw 2INT's and then with the playoffs on the line completed 43% of his passes and threw 3INT's to end the season during the 2nd and final meeting we would have heard NOTHING about 30 mile an hour winds, Revis playing poorly because of his wrist and therefore could press, it was cold in Buffalo....none of that. Jets fans would literally sought out Geno Smith's head on a platter. 

 

I've said it for years, this fanbase cant be trusted because the fanbase only deals in emotions. If Fitz was never signed and Geno played the entire season and melted down in week 17 you would have heard how he was so stupid for forcing that throw to Decker during that INT and how he's so stupid that he cant even read through his progressions because its was "so obvious" that Chris Ivory is WIDE OPEN in the flat with no defender near him for atleast 8 yards. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick does this sh*t you dont once hear about him not reading through his progressions. This is not the only time Fitz has done it as well, the difference is that it worked out the prior times given how much of a BEAST Brandon Marshall is. Plenty times during crunch time last season Fitz had tunnel vision on either Marshall or Decker. 

 

Its to the point that it really doesnt matter what the excuses are for Fitz. As long as the Jets dont resign him for that stupid ass amount and guarantee him the starting job, I dont have a problem. Much of the comparisons I've just laughed at. Comparing Geno to guys like Jamarcus Russell and Kordell Stewart. If you watched these 3 guys play, they're NOTHING ALIKE. People only compare Geno to those guys because there either considered a bust or a below average QB and for the fact that they're black quarterbacks. 

 

This offseason has been full of laughter. Listening to all of the excuses but at the same time watch as the Jets front office allowed EVERY SINGLE OPPORTUNITY for Fitzpatrick to go to another team. 

 

I really really REALLY hope that Fitz doesnt budge on his asking price. I also hope that if Fitz does in fact come down to earth and realize that he's not worth starting QB money that Bowles allow the best man to earn the spot, but knowing QB's luck around Fitzpatrick Geno may end up injured someway some how again just given thats how it goes anytime Fitz is signed to a team. In some ways though I would like to see Fitz back for a competition just to watch Geno win the job and see what people have to say then. 

[ylekram]

5 hours ago, BroadwayJets said:

Earlier you said that good OCs work to their players' strengths. I couldn't agree more. When you use TD:INT ratios to judge QBs, you're not including that Geno basically wasn't allowed to throw in the redzone. Rex would always choose to run it on first down, then when that failed, the next two plays were either a QB sneak or another run. I would suspect that 45% of our yards in those years came from running the ball.

I never once said Geno was good, but that the difference between Fitz and Geno isn't far off if Geno loses the boneheaded sack plays, and holds onto the damn football. Geno's turnovers without a doubt hampered Morhningweig's overall stat line, just like some of Morhingweig's decisions in the redzone hampered Geno's TD:INT. In Gailey's system, they could have similar production if Geno improves his mental game.

also the difference between Lorenzo mauldin and von miller isn't far off either.if Lorenzo learns to rush the passer better, shed blocks, and get more sacks. I see where you are going with this. geno could be a better qb when geno stops doing the things that make him a bad qb. makes sense

[ylekram]

4 hours ago, slats said:

Or, Marty Mornhinweg under Andy Reid, and Marty Mornhinweg without Andy Reid. 

Andy left him behind, he sucked, and now he's a QB coach.  

I love this logic. when player/coach does well, its because of every thing else under the sun besides player/coach abilities, determined by which narrative the poster is running with. on the flip side, said player/coach does not do well, that's just cuz they suck

[slats]

1 hour ago, ylekram said:

I love this logic. when player/coach does well, its because of every thing else under the sun besides player/coach abilities, determined by which narrative the poster is running with. on the flip side, said player/coach does not do well, that's just cuz they suck

Mornhinweg's offense sucked when he was a head coach, and when he wasn't working under an offensive minded head coach. When he, alone, was in charge of offenses, they sucked. The league has caught on, and now he doesn't coordinate offenses anymore. 

That's the narrative I'm running with. 

[BroadwayJets]

11 hours ago, ylekram said:

also the difference between Lorenzo mauldin and von miller isn't far off either.if Lorenzo learns to rush the passer better, shed blocks, and get more sacks. I see where you are going with this. geno could be a better qb when geno stops doing the things that make him a bad qb. makes sense

I never realized you could compare rushing the passer to holding onto a football until now. Until I read this Von Miller/Lorenzo Mauldin comparison I never truly appreciated how good Ryan Fitzpatrick is at quarterback. I feel enlightened. Thank you, Mark.

[PatsFanTX]

also the difference between Lorenzo mauldin and von miller isn't far off either.

You can't be serious?

If you are, this is probably the dumbest post in JN history.

[Smashmouth]

35 minutes ago, BroadwayJets said:

I never realized you could compare rushing the passer to holding onto a football until now. Until I read this Von Miller/Lorenzo Mauldin comparison I never truly appreciated how good Ryan Fitzpatrick is at quarterback. I feel enlightened. Thank you, Mark.

you know exactly what he was doing so stop the "Im losing this argument so I'm going to be a wise ass now" crap

He made an analogy that makes total sense I'm guessing he used this method of argument because most people simply can't grasp that Geno absolutely sucks and plays the position recklessly and makes the same stupid mistakes he was making in year 1. He's Mark Sanchez part two but has no likeable qualities or leadership qualities.

Now while Fitz had some bad games last year he played good over all and he played smart and in some cases very smart yet somehow posters here think Geno's a better option than Fitz and I find that to be ridiculous. Im not saying that's you but I will say that's why ylekram is using analogy's. 

Fitz played well enough to win 12 games last year while some blame him for the Buffalo loss they refuse to blame the team for losses where the ST stunk up the joint and players fumbled away games and dropped game winning passes. It goes both ways.

[Smashmouth]

37 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

You can't be serious?

 

If you are, this is probably the dumbest post in JN history.

Tx stop trolling

[BroadwayJets]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

you know exactly what he was doing so stop the "Im losing this argument so I'm going to be a wise ass now" crap

He made an analogy that makes total sense I'm guessing he used this method of argument because most people simply can't grasp that Geno absolutely sucks and plays the position recklessly and makes the same stupid mistakes he was making in year 1. He's Mark Sanchez part two but has no likeable qualities or leadership qualities.

Now while Fitz had some bad games last year he played good over all and he played smart and in some cases very smart yet somehow posters here think Geno's a better option than Fitz and I find that to be ridiculous. Im not saying that's you but I will say that's why ylekram is using analogy's. 

Fitz played well enough to win 12 games last year while some blame him for the Buffalo loss they refuse to blame the team for losses where the ST stunk up the joint and players fumbled away games and dropped game winning passes. It goes both ways.

Except you can't compare learning to become an elite pass rusher to literally just "holding onto the football". I'm not losing this argument, because clearly he, and you, do not understand what I've been saying. Never said either one is a good option, or better than the other. In fact, I've said repeatedly that both are dogsh*t. I said it's conceivable to believe that Geno can replicate Fitz' success last season if he doesn't kill drives by fumbling and taking 15 yard sacks. That's all.

[ylekram]

10 hours ago, BroadwayJets said:

I never realized you could compare rushing the passer to holding onto a football until now. Until I read this Von Miller/Lorenzo Mauldin comparison I never truly appreciated how good Ryan Fitzpatrick is at quarterback. I feel enlightened. Thank you, Mark.

since you were stating the painfully obvious, I figured I would too. you come across like you finally figured out geno's problem like the rest of us were clueless." if only geno would do this and that and stop doing this and that, he would be better". ya. no sh*t. and what pro-geno post would be complete without the obligatory "ya, you convinced me. fitz is great" comment.

[ylekram]

10 hours ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

You can't be serious?

 

If you are, this is probably the dumbest post in JN history.

trying to lure me in with the "it went over my head" routine. there is plenty of low hanging fruit around these parts. might I suggest you pick one to accommodate your troll fix

[ylekram]

10 hours ago, BroadwayJets said:

Except you can't compare learning to become an elite pass rusher to literally just "holding onto the football". I'm not losing this argument, because clearly he, and you, do not understand what I've been saying. Never said either one is a good option, or better than the other. In fact, I've said repeatedly that both are dogsh*t. I said it's conceivable to believe that Geno can replicate Fitz' success last season if he doesn't kill drives by fumbling and taking 15 yard sacks. That's all.

just another way of saying that geno will be a better qb when he stops doing things that make him a bad qb. do you not see how obvious that is?

[BroadwayJets]

13 hours ago, ylekram said:

just another way of saying that geno will be a better qb when he stops doing things that make him a bad qb. do you not see how obvious that is?

You denying the possibility that he can improve his mental mistakes because he had the luxury of being Marty Morhningweig/Rex Ryan's student is quite frustrating at this point. But I'm aware that people who can't see Fitz for what he is don't really get it.

 

Being smarter in the pocket is not the same as arm strength. At this stage quarterbacks are what they are physically - it's the mental game they need to improve on. The little things are what kills Geno, and I'd rather see what we can get from him for one last season rather than watch Fitz sh*t the bed against good defenses.

[ylekram]

3 hours ago, BroadwayJets said:

You denying the possibility that he can improve his mental mistakes because he had the luxury of being Marty Morhningweig/Rex Ryan's student is quite frustrating at this point. But I'm aware that people who can't see Fitz for what he is don't really get it.

 

Being smarter in the pocket is not the same as arm strength. At this stage quarterbacks are what they are physically - it's the mental game they need to improve on. The little things are what kills Geno, and I'd rather see what we can get from him for one last season rather than watch Fitz sh*t the bed against good defenses.

nope, not even close. my stance has always been that geno can absolutely improve, but he needs to prove it before being "gifted" a 4th straight starting gig. when that day comes, he will be a starter.until that day comes, he can ride the pine.unlike a lot of people on this board that think geno improving is a foregone conclusion. its not. fitz was nothing but an average qb last year. geno is leaps and bounds away from reaching that point. its like it was all rex's, idziks, and wornhinwegs fault. not geno's. on the flip side, it was all bowles,marshal's, gailey's, the schedule, and the weather that improved the offense, zero to do with fitz. this line of thinking is laughable