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Is Allen Robinson about to become the NFL's best WR?


drdetroit
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11 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

seriously JIF arguing where a player was drafted after they already have a body of work in the NFL is a really bad argument to make.

Well that's because you've never seen Lee play so the only way you can make a statemant ike that is if you are comparing them as prospects.  

It's like saying that Dante Fowler isn't even in the same conversation as Maudlin. 

Pretty simple. 

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22 minutes ago, drdetroit said:

Marquise Lee stinks.  He was a totally overrated prospect he's not even a top 2 WR on his own team.

Case in point.  

The team that drafted him disagreed, so much so they took him 21 spots ahead of Robinson.

Im not even saying you guys are wrong or right, I'm saying you're full of sh*t.

 

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9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Case in point.  

The team that drafted him disagreed, so much so they took him 21 spots ahead of Robinson.

Im not even saying you guys are wrong or right, I'm saying you're full of sh*t.

 

He was a totally overrated prospect.  Your argument is meaningless Giovanni Carmazzi and Spergon Wynn were drafted ahead of Brady who cares.

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1 hour ago, drdetroit said:

He was a totally overrated prospect.  Your argument is meaningless Giovanni Carmazzi and Spergon Wynn were drafted ahead of Brady who cares.

So overrated he won the Biletnikoff and the team that drafted him took him 21 spots higher than the guy who supposedly isnt even in the same conversation as a prospect/talent.

Its cool.  Whatever.  You guys knew more than the Jags did. 

I'm interested in seeing what he does this year now that's he's healthy.  

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23 hours ago, JiF said:

I actually think he'll take a pretty decent to significant dip from a production standpoint this season.  They signed Kelvin Beachum and Chris Ivory to improve their running game. They drafted Yeldon last year in the 2nd.  They want to run the ball more and control the clock and take pressure off Bortles who does tend to make mistakes when pressing. Bradley is a defensive guy, he doesnt like shoot outs and doesnt like playing from behind.  They're going to be in closer games this year because their D is twice as good.

I'd say easily over 60% of the Jags offense production came playing from behind last season.  That's not to say the dont have a potent offense, they do.  But things are different when you're playing catch up every game. 

Robinson's stat line when trailing: 56 receptions, 1,041 yards and 11 TD's. 

This season, they will be starting with a healthy Julius Thomas (who they didnt really have at 100% till the 2nd half of the season) and Marquise Lee (who they really havent seen at all and drafted 20 spots ahead of Robinson).  Plus, they cant keep Rashard Greene off the field either.  And Allen Hurns just signed for some serious Cheddar.

So while we can all agree Robinson is a great talent.  I'd pump the breaks before crowing him the best of the best. 

80 catches on 153 targets isnt exactly amazing, either. 

 

 

They drafted Bortles #3 overall, drafted Lee in the 2nd and then traded up to draft ARob in the 2nd, signed Julius Thomas to a huge contract, and just gave Allen Hurns a huge extension. The Jaguars are built around the passing game. Ivory was brought in to help an abysmal rushing attack (especially so in short yardage situations), but make no mistake that this team is built around the passing game. Now I know rebuttal to this, because I've heard it many times this offseason, is that there will be too many mouths to feed. However, regardless of how many weapons the Jaguars have brought in, the best player on the roster is Allen Robinson and he's going to be utilized as such.

 

Robinson's stats in quarters 1 through 3: 1,021 yards and 9 TDs. Let's not run with a false narrative that Robinson was some sort of garbage time hero. His quarters 1-3 production extrapolates to a season of 1,361 yards and 12 TDs.

 

80 catches on 153 targets isn't amazing, but that is largely in part to Bortles using Robinson as his "throw away" target. Rather than throwing the ball out of bounds, Bortles would heave the ball to wherever Robinson was. Remember the Jags vs Jets game last year?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0012Dgdq0w

 

or this?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sm6xtMrgR0

 

 

Plays like that that Robinson doesn't haul in aren't really a fault of his. As Bortles improves his accuracy and decision making, Robinson's catch % will improve because that is really the only thing keeping that catch % down. His catch radius is elite and he was very good hands.

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On 7/25/2016 at 1:25 PM, JiF said:

 

I'm not sure he produces the way he did last season. The contract they gave Ivory makes me think they plan on asking less of Bortles and put more of an emphasis on the running game.  That and like you said, Lee is healthy (who might actually be the most talented WR on that roster), Thomas is healthy too and him and Bortles were coming on strong last season.

They also have a bunch of guys who I think can ball at WR; Rashard Greene, Bryan Walters, Arrelious Benn...they even have this dude Shaq Evans. ;-)

Either way, Robinson has a long way to go before he's in the Julio, Antonio, Odell conversation. 

 

Ivory was brought in to help the Jaguars horsecrap short yardage rushing and provide solid depth at RB (Yeldon missed some time last year and Denard isn't a good RB2). Ivory was not brought in to neuter Bortles. Also, Ivory's contract wasn't really as much as the talking heads believe. It basically breaks down to 2 years, 10 mil (5mil per) which isn't a lot considering how much spending money the Jaguars had this offseason.

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5 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

They drafted Bortles #3 overall, drafted Lee in the 2nd and then traded up to draft ARob in the 2nd, signed Julius Thomas to a huge contract, and just gave Allen Hurns a huge extension. The Jaguars are built around the passing game. Ivory was brought in to help an abysmal rushing attack (especially so in short yardage situations), but make no mistake that this team is built around the passing game. Now I know rebuttal to this, because I've heard it many times this offseason, is that there will be too many mouths to feed. However, regardless of how many weapons the Jaguars have brought in, the best player on the roster is Allen Robinson and he's going to be utilized as such.

 

Robinson's stats in quarters 1 through 3: 1,021 yards and 9 TDs. Let's not run with a false narrative that Robinson was some sort of garbage time hero. His quarters 1-3 production extrapolates to a season of 1,361 yards and 12 TDs.

 

80 catches on 153 targets isn't amazing, but that is largely in part to Bortles using Robinson as his "throw away" target. Rather than throwing the ball out of bounds, Bortles would heave the ball to wherever Robinson was. Remember the Jags vs Jets game last year?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0012Dgdq0w

 

or this?

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sm6xtMrgR0

 

 

Plays like that that Robinson doesn't haul in aren't really a fault of his. As Bortles improves his accuracy and decision making, Robinson's catch % will improve because that is really the only thing keeping that catch % down. His catch radius is elite and he was very good hands.

By no means am I taking anything away from Robinson.  He's amazing.  

You don't sign Ivory to the contract the did unless you have intention of using him, significantly.  You don't draft a RB in the 2nd unless you plan to use him.

i live in Jax.  I hear the interviews. They want a ball controlled offense and want to put a focus on running the ball.  Bottles was hit more than any other QB in the league and he's back breaking turnover prone.  I'm not saying they are going ground and pound but they are putting a huge emphasis on establishing a strong run game. 

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Also, a point that you fail to mention is that teams KNEW that the Jaguars had to throw the ball last season. They had no run game and were trailing more often than not. Despite being able to sit back and double team Robinson, Robinson beasted his way to 1,400 and 14. If teams have to start respecting the run more, don't you think that could help the passing game become more efficient?

 

Statistically, Robinson was the best deep threat in the NFL last season. Now the Jaguars can actually utilize play action? Nice.

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3 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Ivory was brought in to help the Jaguars horsecrap short yardage rushing and provide solid depth at RB (Yeldon missed some time last year and Denard isn't a good RB2). Ivory was not brought in to neuter Bortles. Also, Ivory's contract wasn't really as much as the talking heads believe. It basically breaks down to 2 years, 10 mil (5mil per) which isn't a lot considering how much spending money the Jaguars had this offseason.

Neuture.  No.  Take pressure off, yes.

We shall see. They want to run the ball, a lot. 

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1 minute ago, JiF said:

By no means am I taking anything away from Robinson.  He's amazing.  

You don't sign Ivory to the contract the did unless you have intention of using him, significantly.  You don't draft a RB in the 2nd unless you plan to use him.

i live in Jax.  I hear the interviews. They want a ball controlled offense and want to put a focus on running the ball.  Bottles was hit more than any other QB in the league and he's back breaking turnover prone.  I'm not saying they are going ground and pound but they are putting a huge emphasis on establishing a strong run game. 

 

A 2 year 10 mil contract with the type of cap space the Jaguars have isn't some huge contract.

 

You don't have a QB #3 overall, followed by TWO WRs in the 2nd, then sign a TE to a monster deal and extend an UDFA WR to a big contract if you don't plan to pass. Yes, the Jaguars are going to try to establish a run game, but that run game some help the passing game become more efficient. Also, keep in mind that an improved run game = more first downs and sustained drives. Longer drives = more total plays. More total plays helps offset the volume concerns when talking about a more balanced offense.

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5 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Also, a point that you fail to mention is that teams KNEW that the Jaguars had to throw the ball last season. They had no run game and were trailing more often than not. Despite being able to sit back and double team Robinson, Robinson beasted his way to 1,400 and 14. If teams have to start respecting the run more, don't you think that could help the passing game become more efficient?

 

Their defense should be much improved by default as well.  Last year, their defense did not have guys like Dante Fowler, Myles Jack, or Yannick Ngakoue.  They also signed Prince Amukamara.  They'll be playing in a lot closer games than they did last season.

Kind of crazy to think that the Raiders and Jaguars will likely contend for division titles this year.  And the Browns might not be far behind either; I'm kind of excited to see what Hue Jackson and Paul DePodesta start to do with that organization by making a heavy investment in analytics.  Teams that used to suck for decades in this league are now very competent.

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

And vice versa; when the defense helps keep/get leads, they'll use Ivory late in games to close out opponents.

If the Jaguars have leads that late in the game, it's more often than not going to have something to do with the passing game. The Jags won 5 games last year and in those 5 games Allen Robinson had 421 yards and 5 TDs. The idea that winning more games means Robinson will be used less is demonstrably false.

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3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That being said, I still expect a monster year out of Robinson.  Having a balanced attack will drop Bortles' gaudy numbers a good bit, but it won't necessarily hurt Robinson.  In fact, he might be even more efficient.  And none of that impacts Robinson's elite status. 

That's how I see it. They admittedly shouldn't need to pass as much as last year, but when they do pass they should be more efficient. Robinson probably won't see 153 targets again, but he should catch a higher % of the targets he does see. 

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

So overrated he won the Biletnikoff and the team that drafted him took him 21 spots higher than the guy who supposedly isnt even in the same conversation as a prospect/talent.

Its cool.  Whatever.  You guys knew more than the Jags did. 

I'm interested in seeing what he does this year now that's he's healthy.  

They would be the same people saying they knew this guy was going to be a bust if he didn't pan out for them...

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5 hours ago, JiF said:

So overrated he won the Biletnikoff and the team that drafted him took him 21 spots higher than the guy who supposedly isnt even in the same conversation as a prospect/talent.

Its cool.  Whatever.  You guys knew more than the Jags did. 

I'm interested in seeing what he does this year now that's he's healthy.  

I know more than u and the rest of these people who were screaming for Lee

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On 8/12/2016 at 7:54 PM, nycdan said:

All great choices but based on last season, B-Marsh is actually right in the mix.  DeAndre Hopkins is another name that could push one of them out.

 

 

Hopkins is definitely in that conversation, good call.  But I don't think there's a GM in the league who would take Marshall over any of those guys, either long term or for this year only, if they had that option.

And that's not a knock on Marshall. 

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7 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Hopkins is definitely in that conversation, good call.  But I don't think there's a GM in the league who would take Marshall over any of those guys, either long term or for this year only, if they had that option.

And that's not a knock on Marshall. 

age comes into play there obviously and it also depends (if Marshall was closer in age to those guys) what type of offensive player you are looking for. If you are looking for a big tough possession type WR who will go over the middle with no fear than Marshall is your guy since he's one of the best ever in that respect. Marshall has 6 100 reception years not many players can say that.

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16 hours ago, JiF said:

By no means am I taking anything away from Robinson.  He's amazing.  

You don't sign Ivory to the contract the did unless you have intention of using him, significantly.  You don't draft a RB in the 2nd unless you plan to use him.

i live in Jax.  I hear the interviews. They want a ball controlled offense and want to put a focus on running the ball.  Bottles was hit more than any other QB in the league and he's back breaking turnover prone.  I'm not saying they are going ground and pound but they are putting a huge emphasis on establishing a strong run game. 

JIF they do have Yeldin and how much they use Ivory will be a "wait and see" type situation. I say that because of Ivory's injury history They may very well be splitting carries down the middle and use the hot hand to shut games down in the 4th. They are going to want to preserve Ivory and if they try and use him as a work horse they will be in the same boat we were in and lose him for the stretch run to the playoffs. Also depending on game situations will play a big part. If the Jags play from behind a lot you will see much more of Robinson obviously and keep in mind ball control means Robinson may be getting the lions share of the targets and pile up a lot of receptions. Time will tell. No use debating something that can be effected by so many different scenarios 

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1 hour ago, Smashmouth said:

JIF they do have Yeldin and how much they use Ivory will be a "wait and see" type situation. I say that because of Ivory's injury history They may very well be splitting carries down the middle and use the hot hand to shut games down in the 4th. They are going to want to preserve Ivory and if they try and use him as a work horse they will be in the same boat we were in and lose him for the stretch run to the playoffs. Also depending on game situations will play a big part. If the Jags play from behind a lot you will see much more of Robinson obviously and keep in mind ball control means Robinson may be getting the lions share of the targets and pile up a lot of receptions. Time will tell. No use debating something that can be effected by so many different scenarios 

They also paid Hurns more than WR2 typical money. Same for J. Thomas at TE. That team has premium offensive playmakers.   They would be an elite unit but for their horrendous O-line. And that's why Bortles' career has been the equivalent of a tackling dummy.  The wasted early 1st round pick on Joeckles did a lot of damage. He turned out  to be a slug. 

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10 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

JIF they do have Yeldin and how much they use Ivory will be a "wait and see" type situation. I say that because of Ivory's injury history They may very well be splitting carries down the middle and use the hot hand to shut games down in the 4th. They are going to want to preserve Ivory and if they try and use him as a work horse they will be in the same boat we were in and lose him for the stretch run to the playoffs. Also depending on game situations will play a big part. If the Jags play from behind a lot you will see much more of Robinson obviously and keep in mind ball control means Robinson may be getting the lions share of the targets and pile up a lot of receptions. Time will tell. No use debating something that can be effected by so many different scenarios 

Ivory and Yeldon are heading for a split.

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