WR draft values moving forward

[EM31]

I have no metrics to back any of this up and so it may just be the Jets WRs this year, Victor Cruz and a few others here or there who stick in my mind.  It may also be the Jets recent record of whiffing on WR picks coloring my opinion.

With all of that said, a few years ago we saw the overall draft value of running backs drop off in part because teams were moving towards two-headed or even three-headed running attacks and in part because teams like Denver managed to keep on finding and reloading very productive RBs in late rounds or from the UDFA ranks.  Is the same about to happen for the WR position?

If you are a WR blue-chipper you are still going to be OK with a big rookie contract but given the number of teams who seems to be finding wide out in the UDFA ranks does that mean that NFL scouting of these positions is not reliable enough to risk the high value of a 3-5 on them?

 

[jgb]

It is a cycle as positions get devalued across the league a few forward thinkers realise they can get talent disproportionate to their acquisition price/draft slot and the tide turns. Think about the league wide shift from 4-3 to 3-4 and back to 4-3. Denver trying this now with QB, which would be absolutely revolutionary if they pull it off.

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[Jetster]

Jets need to reload our Oline badly this offseason. They need to find a vet stud RT & give him the money we save cutting David Harris next year. Add a high draft pick stud Tackle & slide him into the RG spot & sit Winters as the backup he should be.

If Peake, Anderson & J.Marshall all continue to develop & become of future WRs, that would be the most incredible haul of late round position filling in Jets history & say a lot about Maccs scouts.

7th (Peake) & 2 UDFAs in Anderson & J. Marshall. Incredible.

 

[bostonmajet]

1 minute ago, Jetster said:

Jets need to reload our Oline badly this offseason. They need to find a vet stud RT & give him the money we save cutting David Harris next year. Add a high draft pick stud Tackle & slide him into the RG spot & sit Winters as the backup he should be.

If Peake, Anderson & J.Marshall all continue to develop & become of future WRs, that would be the most incredible haul of late round position filling in Jets history & say a lot about Maccs scouts.

7th (Peake) & 2 UDFAs in Anderson & J. Marshall. Incredible.

 

We should at least give Idzik credit for Quincy and Decker (although he signed him as a #1, but he is a great #2); Brandon for a 5th was a steal

[Lupz27]

I think guys are over rating J Marshall as a top 3 WR, he is more of a 4th WR, but great specials guy.

[bostonmajet]

It is Marshall, Decker and Quincy are 1,2, 3; I would guess Robbie is #4, J. Marshall would be #5 I would guess... more valuable in specials than as a WR right now.

[LIJetsFan]

All three of these guys have issues which is why that were late or very late pickups.  Anderson is too skinny, Peake has hx of knee issues, and Marshal has the dropsies.  I'm high on all three but in fact the jury isn't even close to being in on them.  I think that it's the Jets getting lucky for once rather than that the NFL is trending towards devaluing WRs.        

[drdetroit]

It looks like the FO hit home runs with Anderson, Marshall and peake

[cant wait]

lol no

[NYs Stepchild]

18 hours ago, jgb said:

 

 

 

 

It is a cycle as positions get devalued across the league a few forward thinkers realise they can get talent disproportionate to their acquisition price/draft slot and the tide turns. Think about the league wide shift from 4-3 to 3-4 and back to 4-3. Denver trying this now with QB, which would be absolutely revolutionary if they pull it off.

 

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can't wait until Thursday. I have a lot of money riding on Carolina because I think Denver is nuts trotting McElroy Jr out there on a SB winning team. 

[NYs Stepchild]

24 minutes ago, drdetroit said:

It looks like the FO hit home runs with Anderson, Marshall and peake

Anderson yes. Love the way he fights to get open without breaking stride, and then the way he fights to the ball with his hands so naturally. Even when he's wide open he treats the ball like it's contested. I think he's going to be a big star...if he can handle the physical grind at his weight.

The other two are doubles so far. We'll see how they pan out.

 

[slats]

Those big, fast, catch everything, prototypical guys will always be high first round talent. 

[NYs Stepchild]

14 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

It is Marshall, Decker and Quincy are 1,2, 3; I would guess Robbie is #4, J. Marshall would be #5 I would guess... more valuable in specials than as a WR right now.

If Anderson can hold up I think he'll pass Q on the depth chart...They don't really play the same position, but I think he's going to steal his snaps.

We can put MArshall, or Decker in the slot, and Andy on the outside to stretch the field. Should be very productive. 

[JustInFudge]

On 9/4/2016 at 11:07 AM, EM31 said:

I have no metrics to back any of this up and so it may just be the Jets WRs this year, Victor Cruz and a few others here or there who stick in my mind.  It may also be the Jets recent record of whiffing on WR picks coloring my opinion.

With all of that said, a few years ago we saw the overall draft value of running backs drop off in part because teams were moving towards two-headed or even three-headed running attacks and in part because teams like Denver managed to keep on finding and reloading very productive RBs in late rounds or from the UDFA ranks.  Is the same about to happen for the WR position?

If you are a WR blue-chipper you are still going to be OK with a big rookie contract but given the number of teams who seems to be finding wide out in the UDFA ranks does that mean that NFL scouting of these positions is not reliable enough to risk the high value of a 3-5 on them?

 

Personally and I might be way off on this take but I think we're going to see a swing back to an emphasis on the running game around the league.

The college game is ridiculous and it's screwing the development of just about every single QB that comes out and aims their sites on the NFL.  These QB's are so flawed fundamentally and so far behind the learning curve heading into the league, that I see a huge regression at the position about to hit the NFL.  The rules, will continue to allow huge numbers...but truly great QB play, could be a thing of the past.  So, the emphasis on the running game could be coming back to the forefront.  

Also, you're about to see what could be the best RB class to come out of the NCAA in a really long time.  Cook, Fournette, Chubb, McCaffery...they could all go first round.  And there are bunch of other studs in college set to come out.  

Then, when you look at the league and who's been winning lately, its teams with outstanding run games and Defense to compliment it.  The pass happy teams, have not been the conference champs lately. 

So, with the regression of NFL ready QB's and the success of teams in the NFL who have a strong running game, I think you could see things start to level out.  So yes, I think the WR position is going to become a little devalued. Especially when you see guys being taken in the 3rd and beyond lighting it up.  That said, your freaks (Julio Jones types) will always be a top 5 pick.

 

 

 

[bostonmajet]

9 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

If Anderson can hold up I think he'll pass Q on the depth chart...They don't really play the same position, but I think he's going to steal his snaps.

We can put MArshall, or Decker in the slot, and Andy on the outside to stretch the field. Should be very productive. 

Q may get more snaps as he can play the h-gap/TE position; that being said - very excited about Anderson. Of course, with Fitz there is only so much field stretching we can do

[NYs Stepchild]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Personally and I might be way off on this take but I think we're going to see a swing back to an emphasis on the running game around the league.

The college game is ridiculous and it's screwing the development of just about every single QB that comes out and aims their sites on the NFL.  These QB's are so flawed fundamentally and so far behind the learning curve heading into the league, that I see a huge regression at the position about to hit the NFL  The rules, will continue to allow huge numbers...but truly great QB play, could be a thing of the past.  So, the emphasis on the running game could be coming back to the forefront.  

Also, you're about to see what could be the best RB class to come out of the NCAA in a really long time.  Cook, Fournette, Chubb, McCaffery...they could all go first round.  And there are bunch of other studs in college set to come out.  

Then, when you look at the league and who's been winning lately, its teams with outstanding run games and Defense to compliment it.  The pass happy teams, have not been the conference champs lately. 

So, with the regression of NFL ready QB's and the success of teams in the NFL who have a strong running game, I think you could see things start to level out.  So yes, I think the WR position is going to become a little devalued. Especially when you see guys being taken in the 3rd and beyond lighting it up.  That said, your freaks (Julio Jones types) will always be a top 5 pick.

 

 

 

I sure hope this happens because we have the best run defense in the NFL. 

[flgreen]

15 hours ago, bostonmajet said:

We should at least give Idzik credit for Quincy and Decker (although he signed him as a #1, but he is a great #2); Brandon for a 5th was a steal

In all fairness one other one he gets credit for IMO is Ivory

[NYs Stepchild]

11 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

Q may get more snaps as he can play the h-gap/TE position; that being said - very excited about Anderson. Of course, with Fitz there is only so much field stretching we can do

As far as they can run in a 2 sec window. Keeping the CBs off the line, and keeping a safety back is all the field stretching we need. 

[flgreen]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

Personally and I might be way off on this take but I think we're going to see a swing back to an emphasis on the running game around the league.

The college game is ridiculous and it's screwing the development of just about every single QB that comes out and aims their sites on the NFL.  These QB's are so flawed fundamentally and so far behind the learning curve heading into the league, that I see a huge regression at the position about to hit the NFL  The rules, will continue to allow huge numbers...but truly great QB play, could be a thing of the past.  So, the emphasis on the running game could be coming back to the forefront.  

Also, you're about to see what could be the best RB class to come out of the NCAA in a really long time.  Cook, Fournette, Chubb, McCaffery...they could all go first round.  And there are bunch of other studs in college set to come out.  

Then, when you look at the league and who's been winning lately, its teams with outstanding run games and Defense to compliment it.  The pass happy teams, have not been the conference champs lately. 

So, with the regression of NFL ready QB's and the success of teams in the NFL who have a strong running game, I think you could see things start to level out.  So yes, I think the WR position is going to become a little devalued. Especially when you see guys being taken in the 3rd and beyond lighting it up.  That said, your freaks (Julio Jones types) will always be a top 5 pick.

 

 

 

Agree.

 

Have been wondering for a few years now why 18 YO QB's who appear to have legitimate talent, and are heavily recruited, select college's with option O's.

if it were my kid, and he had a choice I'd be pounding for a pro style O  

[JustInFudge]

13 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

I sure hope this happens because we have the best run defense in the NFL. 

Top 5 teams at stopping the run last year;

Seattle, NY Jets, Denver, Carolina, Steelers - all 10 game winners. 2 conference winners.  1 team didnt make the playoffs.

We'll see how they do this year without Snacks.  

[JustInFudge]

5 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Agree.

 

Have been wondering for a few years now why 18 YO QB's who appear to have legitimate talent, and are heavily recruited, select college's with option O's.

if it were my kid, and he had a choice I'd be pounding for a pro style O  

I'm a college Football junkie.  I probably watch more of it than the NFL.  Do you know how many QB's I saw calling plays at the LOS and actually reading a defense this weekend?

0

Dead serious.  

[NYs Stepchild]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Top 5 teams at stopping the run last year;

Seattle, NY Jets, Denver, Carolina, Steelers - all 10 game winners. 2 conference winners.  1 team didnt make the playoffs.

We'll see how they do this year without Snacks.  

As long as we stick with the base 4 man front we saw in the Giant game I think we'll be even better. 

Simon looks very good for short yardage situations. He doesn't have the uncanny ability to shed left or right at the last second the way Snacks did, but he can stand up a double team just as well. 

[flgreen]

Just now, JiF said:

I'm a college Football junkie.  I probably watch more of it than the NFL.  Do you know how many QB's I saw calling plays at the LOS and actually reading a defense this weekend?

0

Dead serious.  

I'm in the same category on watching college football.  Again I agree.  Understand whycollege HC's run the simple O's Don't have the star QB's  long.  But if I had a choice .........................

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

As long as we stick with the base 4 man front we saw in the Giant game I think we'll be even better. 

Simon looks very good for short yardage situations. He doesn't have the uncanny ability to shed left or right at the last second the way Snacks did, but he can stand up a double team just as well. 

Limited snaps in a preseason game is one thing, trying to tackle Jermey Hill coming down hill with a head of steam in the 4th quarter is another. 

I hope you're right. 

1 minute ago, flgreen said:

I'm in the same category on watching college football.  Again I agree.  Understand whycollege HC's run the simple O's Don't have the star QB's  long.  But if I had a choice .........................

Yeah, it makes total sense.  They're turning over a new roster every 2 years.  You dont have time to break kids in the way they used to.  Sitting and waiting for chance is a thing of the past.  If you're a 3-5 star recruit at QB these days, you want to play immediately and if you dont, your daddy screams and yells and makes you transfer. 

So, come on in.  Play right away.  And just look over at the sidelines to tell you what to do for the entire game.  You're a Noles fan, right?  Chad Kelly didnt make a single call the entire game and he's a Senior who's considered the best QB in the SEC and a top 5 returning QB's in the entire NCAA. 

 

 

[flgreen]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

Limited snaps in a preseason game is one thing, trying to tackle Jermey Hill coming down hill with a head of steam in the 4th quarter is another. 

I hope you're right. 

Yeah, it makes total sense.  They're turning over a new roster every 2 years.  You dont have time to break kids in the way they used to.  Sitting and waiting for chance is a thing of the past.  If you're a 3-5 star recruit at QB these days, you want to play immediately and if you dont, your daddy screams and yells and makes you transfer. 

So, come on in.  Play right away.  And just look over at the sidelines to tell you what to do for the entire game.  You're a Noles fan, right?  Chad Kelly didnt make a single call the entire game and he's a Senior who's considered the best QB in the SEC and a top 5 returning QB's in the entire NCAA. 

 

 

Actually I'm a Canes fan.  Was fun in the day, not so much now. lol.  Became a Canes fan when I moved to Florida so I could go to a game or two fairly close by.

Watch a lot of NCAA because I wager a quid or two on 8-10 games a week. lol

Wife has gifted me with  every colege network know to man.  lol

I act

[EM31]

50 minutes ago, slats said:

Those big, fast, catch everything, prototypical guys will always be high first round talent. 

I think everyone here has conceded as much but the question as posed was about mid round picks in a world where UDFAs are making rosters.

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, flgreen said:

Actually I'm a Canes fan.  Was fun in the day, not so much now. lol.  Became a Canes fan when I moved to Florida so I could go to a game or two fairly close by.

Watch a lot of NCAA because I wager a quid or two on 8-10 games a week. lol

Wife has gifted me with  every colege network know to man.  lol

I act

Gotcha.  Interestingly enough, Kaya might be the one guy that eventually is allowed to call his own plays.  I'm sure Richt has total control right now as he installs the offense.  But if there is one player coach combination that might buck the trend, its that one.

[slats]

50 minutes ago, JiF said:

Personally and I might be way off on this take but I think we're going to see a swing back to an emphasis on the running game around the league.

The college game is ridiculous and it's screwing the development of just about every single QB that comes out and aims their sites on the NFL.  These QB's are so flawed fundamentally and so far behind the learning curve heading into the league, that I see a huge regression at the position about to hit the NFL.  The rules, will continue to allow huge numbers...but truly great QB play, could be a thing of the past.  So, the emphasis on the running game could be coming back to the forefront.  

Also, you're about to see what could be the best RB class to come out of the NCAA in a really long time.  Cook, Fournette, Chubb, McCaffery...they could all go first round.  And there are bunch of other studs in college set to come out.  

Then, when you look at the league and who's been winning lately, its teams with outstanding run games and Defense to compliment it.  The pass happy teams, have not been the conference champs lately. 

So, with the regression of NFL ready QB's and the success of teams in the NFL who have a strong running game, I think you could see things start to level out.  So yes, I think the WR position is going to become a little devalued. Especially when you see guys being taken in the 3rd and beyond lighting it up.  That said, your freaks (Julio Jones types) will always be a top 5 pick.

Conversely, you could start to see a lot more spread offense in the NFL. The rules still favor passing attacks, and the NFL seems to be of the impression that points scored are good for business, so that isn't likely to change. 

But I like your thinking, and would love to see teams win championships working around the QB position. I think that would be good for the league. 

[slats]

26 minutes ago, EM31 said:

I think everyone here has conceded as much but the question as posed was about mid round picks in a world where UDFAs are making rosters.

I think there will always be guys that aren't the whole package, but have a couple attributes (size & speed, speed & hands, etc.) that will make them worthy of mid-round picks. I think more, if a guy like Robby Anderson pans out, is that scouting departments will be asking themselves why they missed him. 

UDFAs make rosters at virtually every position. That's not going to change the way WR is graded. 

[EM31]

12 minutes ago, slats said:

I think there will always be guys that aren't the whole package, but have a couple attributes (size & speed, speed & hands, etc.) that will make them worthy of mid-round picks. I think more, if a guy like Robby Anderson pans out, is that scouting departments will be asking themselves why they missed him. 

UDFAs make rosters at virtually every position. That's not going to change the way WR is graded. 

I think you may have made point to some degree.  If NFL scouting is not able to reliably identify treasure from trash outside of the blue chip prospects that nobody is arguing about anyway, then I would think that teams might become less wiling over time to use up those mid-round picks on the "somewhat flawed" class of receiver.

Obviously dranftniks across the board are always looking to improve their own success rate and I never expect this to stop.  Teams are always going to ask themselves why did I miss in this guy or that guy?    Assuming they are working as hard as they can and they are still seeing too many WR whiffs in the mid rounds then a natural consequence might be to hold back from spending those picks that early.

[Integrity28]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

It is a cycle as positions get devalued across the league a few forward thinkers realise they can get talent disproportionate to their acquisition price/draft slot and the tide turns. Think about the league wide shift from 4-3 to 3-4 and back to 4-3. Denver trying this now with QB, which would be absolutely revolutionary if they pull it off.

 

 

I expect Washington to do the same thing at QB. Scot Mcloughan supposedly thinks he can find another QB equal to Kirk Cousins level, which is part of why they didn't extend him. It'll be really interesting if they let him walk.

Could you imagine if that was happening here? After all this time without a QB, we find a respectable one, then the GM says he can find another... oy.