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Is Revis a lock for first ballot HOF?


greenwichjetfan
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10 days between Jets games, and we're about to start the mid-week lull...so hopefully we can get a good discussion going here:

When Revis was called out by JR Smith for his poor play the past two weeks, he replied with, "still heading to Canton though[...]". 

The fact that he was the best in the business for 2 years, elite for about 5 years, and has a super bowl ring - especially in the pass happy NFL with freaks playing the WR position, should get him in; but he'll need at least 3-5 more seasons of above average play to make first-ballot.  

While his highs have been higher than anyone I've ever seen (or, higher than anyone in NFL history as supported by empirical evidence), his full career has yet to take shape. If the past two weeks are an indication of things to come, and his CB career crumbles quickly and he doesn't adjust and move to safety, I don't see first ballot. A couple of comps:

- Champ Bailey never converted to safety, but he had a sustainable and productive career at CB going into his very late 30's. 
- Charles Woodson eventually did convert to safety as his CB play slid, and actually performed very well there as well, going into his late 30's. 

So, quite simply, is he a lock for first-ballot HoF?

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Not even a question.  With how the league continues to restrict CB's ability to defend WR's

Revis performance from 2009-2011 was nuts

2 good years do not get you in the HOF on the first ballot.

Also, his stats are terrible (HOF voters love stats) and he will only have 1 Super Bowl ring.

No way he gets in on the first ballot.

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4 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

2 good years do not get you in the HOF on the first ballot.

 

Also, his stats are terrible (HOF voters love stats) and he will only have 1 Super Bowl ring.

 

No way he gets in on the first ballot.

3 of the best years in league history, if not THE best from 2009-2011. the rest of his career he has been a top 3 corner basically every year outside of his rookie year.

 

his stats that matter are incredible, the INts aren't high but his job is to shut down WRs and he has done that better than anyone in league history.  

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18 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

2 good years do not get you in the HOF on the first ballot.

 

Also, his stats are terrible (HOF voters love stats) and he will only have 1 Super Bowl ring.

 

No way he gets in on the first ballot.

I disagree with some of your reasoning however, I think he is clearly going to Canton but a lock for 1st ballot???

He will get hurt a little by his mercenary approach to the game and may be snubbed his 1st year.

 

Rumor has it he would hold out anyway. :)

 

 

 

 

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48 minutes ago, KRL said:

Not even a question.  With how the league continues to restrict CB's ability to defend WR's

Revis performance from 2009-2011 was nuts

I agree that his performance from 09-11 is up there (if not above) the greatest in history. Obviously, if over the next 3-5 years he consistently plays anywhere above average, he's a lock for 1st ballot. 

However, what about a couple of these hypotheticals:

What if, over the next 3-5 years, we see him progressively slip into mediocrity, and then below average play? Are 4 elite seasons and another two above average seasons enough for 1st ballot if the other 4-6 years are average or below average?

Or, what if, his last two weeks continue for the entire season, we cut him because he'll cost us 16m against the cap, and he doesn't get the money he's looking for elsewhere and decides to hang them up? He'll have played less than a decade in the NFL, with the final two seasons being average or below average. 

Is that high watermark of '09-'11 enough for 1st ballot? I don't think it will be if either of those two hypotheticals play out. 

 

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He will if he retires immediately.

If he continues to play CB his age will show and detract from being a 1st ballot, but still HOF nonetheless.

If he switches to Free Safety, ala Rod and Charles Woodson, he will be more effective as a 30+ year old defensive back w/the ball in front of him and be a 1st ballot HOF.

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1 hour ago, greenwichjetfan said:

10 days between Jets games, and we're about to start the mid-week lull...so hopefully we can get a good discussion going here:

When Revis was called out by JR Smith for his poor play the past two weeks, he replied with, "still heading to Canton though[...]". 

The fact that he was the best in the business for 2 years, elite for about 5 years, and has a super bowl ring - especially in the pass happy NFL with freaks playing the WR position, should get him in; but he'll need at least 3-5 more seasons of above average play to make first-ballot.  

While his highs have been higher than anyone I've ever seen (or, higher than anyone in NFL history as supported by empirical evidence), his full career has yet to take shape. If the past two weeks are an indication of things to come, and his CB career crumbles quickly and he doesn't adjust and move to safety, I don't see first ballot. A couple of comps:

- Champ Bailey never converted to safety, but he had a sustainable and productive career at CB going into his very late 30's. 
- Charles Woodson eventually did convert to safety as his CB play slid, and actually performed very well there as well, going into his late 30's. 

So, quite simply, is he a lock for first-ballot HoF?

Revis will come around. Don't let a bad defensive game plan (AJ Green) and one bad play (Goodwin TD) cloud your judgement. He's still a top 10 CB to say the LEAST and I think he'll finish the year as a top 5...again. 

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1 hour ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

2 good years do not get you in the HOF on the first ballot.

 

Also, his stats are terrible (HOF voters love stats) and he will only have 1 Super Bowl ring.

 

No way he gets in on the first ballot.

Its terrible that even after a horrible season last year, he still gave up the lowest completion percentage. I know one guy that shouldn't and probably wouldn't make it on the first-ballot with 4 SB rings. 

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43 minutes ago, greenwichjetfan said:

I agree that his performance from 09-11 is up there (if not above) the greatest in history. Obviously, if over the next 3-5 years he consistently plays anywhere above average, he's a lock for 1st ballot. 

However, what about a couple of these hypotheticals:

What if, over the next 3-5 years, we see him progressively slip into mediocrity, and then below average play? Are 4 elite seasons and another two above average seasons enough for 1st ballot if the other 4-6 years are average or below average?

Or, what if, his last two weeks continue for the entire season, we cut him because he'll cost us 16m against the cap, and he doesn't get the money he's looking for elsewhere and decides to hang them up? He'll have played less than a decade in the NFL, with the final two seasons being average or below average. 

Is that high watermark of '09-'11 enough for 1st ballot? I don't think it will be if either of those two hypotheticals play out. 

 

3-5 years?   I dont see 2 more years if this keeps up.

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Revis is still a very good player and I bet he doesn't get beat on a bomb again for the rest of the season. But two in two games is a lot. Other than those two plays as far as I can see he played well. But no more Revis Island. They nave to play to his ability now and improve the scheme if the Jets are going to compete. And Tex it's not exactly as if your secondary is that good. They made Tannehill look great in the second half yesterday. Which is hard to do. 

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Its terrible that even after a horrible season last year, he still gave up the lowest completion percentage. I know one guy that shouldn't and probably wouldn't make it on the first-ballot with 4 SB rings. 

In Revis' last 3 games, QB's have a 128.8 QBR when throwing against him.

Nice to see the Jets paying $17MM for that type of outstanding performance.

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3 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

In Revis' last 3 games, QB's have a 128.8 QBR when throwing against him.

 

Nice to see the Jets paying $17MM for that type of outstanding performance.

In the last 20+ passing plays, Revis gave up one reception. Its easy to nitpick when you reduce the sample size to garbage. 

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1 hour ago, PatsFanTX said:

 

 

2 good years do not get you in the HOF on the first ballot.

 

Also, his stats are terrible (HOF voters love stats) and he will only have 1 Super Bowl ring.

 

No way he gets in on the first ballot.

Worse, the ring is tainted. 

But it's not 2 good years.  It's many good years, and one 'best season of all time' year.  Some will argue - fairly - that Deion was as good or better a pure cover corner than Revis, but Revis is so much more of a complete player, with great tackling skills that Deion never had, that I would still put him at the top of the list.  If a voter agrees that Revis is the best corner to play the game, and maintained that for, say at least five seasons, I think it's a pretty easy call. 

But then the HoF voting has never been easy to figure out.

 

 

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