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Jets Offseason Plan - slash and burn


Doggin94it
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2 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Keep in mind you can roll that money forward to 2018.  The Jets' future depends on ownership and the FO being able to take a clear-eyed look at 2017 and say "we are not going to win the Super Bowl this year.  There is no chance of it.  And so we are going to focus every single move we make this offseason on giving us the best chance to win the SB in 2018-2020, rather than on increasing our chance of winning a few more meaningless games in 2017."

Do you disagree?  And if that's the standard, how do you justify spending 17M on Mangold and Marshall in the last year of their deals?  I'd love to keep both guys, as a fan of the players.  As a fan of the team, it does not help the 2018-2020 Jets at all.  Would rather spend the money on someone who might.

Marshall is an iffy dude but he can sure teach a few things to the younger players and I see no one on the team that is close to him potential wise.  Mangold is on the downside but he's still way better than the alternative, especially if we draft a new Center.  Tough to evaluate your young Qb's when they are getting blasted into the stratosphere.

The capital the Jets should be hoarding more than money is draft resources.  We save up a huge chunk of money and sure as shi* we will do the same thing next go around, sing everyone and their dog and not play or develop younger players.

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2 minutes ago, bostonmajet said:

I agree with the other poster; nobody is trading for Mo with his contract and play - hopefully he is still coming back from the injury otherwise you release him after the next year (it is really a 2 year deal).

I am not sure about Marshall - you want some vet players; he is likely hurt and frustrated, but can still be valuable - maybe you let Decker go as he isn't ever healthy.

I am all for getting rid of the dead wood, but remember, you aren't going to fill all of those spots in the draft, so you are going to have to sign others to take their place, so that 60 million won't go as far as you would think.

We aren't getting glennon - he is going to want Osweiler money - and we see how that worked out for Houston.

I don't think anyone's giving Glennon Osweiler money - because everyone can see how that worked out for Houston.  Of course, he's a QB, so maybe some FO gets irrationally crazy.  Landing spots are Chicago, SF, Cleveland, Arizona, Buff or here, as far as I can tell (No openings in the NFCE, GB, Minn, Det, NFCS, LAR (Goff), Sea, AFCW (Denver isn't signing a QB after drafting Lynch in the first), AFCS (Houston can't pay for him after signing Osweiler), Pitt, Bal, Cin, Mia, NE).  Of those teams, I'd say Arizona & Chicago are the likeliest competition (assuming AZ parts with Palmer, as they should)

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5 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I don't think anyone's giving Glennon Osweiler money - because everyone can see how that worked out for Houston.  Of course, he's a QB, so maybe some FO gets irrationally crazy.  Landing spots are Chicago, SF, Cleveland, Arizona, Buff or here, as far as I can tell (No openings in the NFCE, GB, Minn, Det, NFCS, LAR (Goff), Sea, AFCW (Denver isn't signing a QB after drafting Lynch in the first), AFCS (Houston can't pay for him after signing Osweiler), Pitt, Bal, Cin, Mia, NE).  Of those teams, I'd say Arizona & Chicago are the likeliest competition (assuming AZ parts with Palmer, as they should)

Fair point, but I bet he gets way more than we want to spend. We are, unfortunately, more than a QB away and I doubt it is worth our while to overpay for him. It will be interesting to see where he lands and how much they pay. 

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I'd love if the Jets cut Buster Skrine, but I don't think it happens. It creates more in dead money than they save because they moved some of his contract money around this past season. He's a garbage player and a huge mistake, but he's more cuttable in 2018.

Erin Henderson is obviously going to be cut, but he wasn't being passed on the depth chart be anyone. He was placed on the non-injury list and his problems likely go deeper than football, unfortunately. I hope it works out for him.

I don't see them cutting Mangold. Even at a lesser ability, he's still better than what they've got or what they'll get.

ASJ is a possible cut too, could save a little over a million, but I wouldn't be surprise to see him stick another year if he can stay sober.

I'm on the fence about Brandon Marshall because with Decker likely not back right away next season, I'd be hesitant to cut him. I can see why, but they could probably get something for him in a trade.

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There's two long term trade offs going on.  One is cap savings that can be eventually rolled into the future(this is important for the long term cap future of the club) the other is compensation draft pick assets.  Someone like Decker would probably still sign a decent contract if he stays until his contract is through and so we might get a 4th or 5th for him eventually.  On the other hand we have however many million less to pay future players for when we are competitive.

Cutting players trades one for the other.  Of course its case specific, and there is no obvious right answer, a lot depends on how players are evaluated.

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1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

Nobody is trading for Wilkerson at that salary off this year, and you'd have to either keep Richardson or replace them both with a new body.  Wilkerson's deal is structured to be easily escaped by the Jets after 2017 if they want to (essentially, they gave themselves the option of extending Sheldon and swapping him for Wilk).  He can be cut in 2018 for an 11M cap savings (and 9M dead money), which is likely what will happen unless he gets his game back next year.


For Marshall, you need to ignore sunk costs, since he can be cut with no cap hit.

Are you extending him?  If not, if he wasn't already under contract, would you sign him at 1 year 7.5M?  For a team with no shot at the SB in that 1 year, that would be a crazy deal; he'd be eating up cap space you can use to sign a player who has a chance to contribute when you do hope to make a SB run in 2-4 years, and blocking younger players from getting the reps they need to develop as contributors during that window.  I get the sentiment, but keeping Marshall next year would hurt the team long-term.

You know what will happen. Jets cut Marshall. Cheaters sign Marshall. Cheaters win Super Bowl?

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3 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Its a simple plan.  Cut all of these guys, go with hack or petty next year, win 2 or 3 games, fire todd bowles and take a qb 1 overall.

The path to success is spelled out right there for us.  Are we man enough to take it?

Joe, I agree with yur basic game plan.

My major problem with it is, why are you writing Petty off?  There is no QB in this draft worthy of where the Jets will pick.   Why take a bad QB #!

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6 hours ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

How did he give bad effort?

I think he can still play. That's the point. He's never been a player whose relied on his speed to be successful. He's a great route runner whose got great size and toughness when going up for the ball. I think he could help our next QB settle in.

We are way past the over/under on Marshall keeping things together.  I don't want this guy due to both decline in play and the increased potential for him to flip his lid.  Time to move on and get younger.

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8 hours ago, rangerous said:

ithink i'd add wilk to the trades list.  unless there is some compelling reason why he hasn't performed he needs to be launched.  i'd also keep marshall but at a restructured salary.  as for glennon, it's all so hard to say.  you see teams like the texans throwing idiot money at losers like osweiler.  i suspect glennon will try to do his best to cash in.

Here is the interesting thing; we could not trade him last year without having the contract signed, but now that he IS signed, perhaps they could move him.  You would have to pay him $20 million next year and $18.5 in 2018, but he is cuttable after that.  If you were a team that needed a DE, especially one with Mo's rep, would you sink that for two years if you knew he could help take your defense over the edge? 

8 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Ugh. Can't believe it's come to this.

Cut:

Ryan Clady. Too injury prone to justify a large dollar contract on a rebuilding team. Cap Savings: 10M

Nick Mangold. This hurts, but he's not what he once was. Cap Savings: 9.75M

Brandon Marshall.  In the last year of his deal, no dead money, and Decker, Enunwa and Anderson are a fine trio of starters to roll with (and under contract for a few more years).  I like the player, love the person he's become, but we can't pay this price at that age with a year left on his deal.  Cap Savings: 7.5M

Marcus Gilchrist.  Has not worked out very well, and if Revis moves to FS it won't even cost anything to replace him.  Cap Savings: 4.625M

Buster Skrine.  Another player who has not worked out at all, and is currently slated to cost 8.5M against the cap.  Cap Savings: 3.5M

Sheldon Richardson (trade for whatever the highest offer is, or cut if nobody is even offering a conditional seventh):  Adds nothing to this team and is a locker room problem.  We already have two elite 3-4 DEs in Wilkerson and Williams, and nowhere to play Richardson anyway.  The only reason to keep him would be for the comp pick after letting him walk as a FA after the season, and paying $8M for that privilege would be insane.  Cap Savings: 8M

Breno Giacomini.  'Nuff said.  Cap Savings: 4.5M

Nick Folk. This team can't spend 3.5M on a placekicker.  Cap Savings: 3M

Erin Henderson. Overpaid as a backup without much utility, passed on the depth chart by Julian Stanford anyway.  Cap Savings: 2.75M

Restructure (or cut if they won't):

Darelle Revis. Move Revis to S if he's willing to take a paycut to 6.5M for next year.  That's 500K more than his guarantee and he has offset language, so that number is a "win" for Darelle and more money than he'll see if he's cut. I'd be willing to go up to 7M if that's what it takes.  Cap Savings: 8.5M (if restructured), 8M (if cut)

David Harris.  It's only fitting that he and Revis go together.  A great teammate and leader, but he's extremely overpaid as - at best - a 2 down LB, and we drafted his replacement last year.  If he's willing to restructure and extend for close to the vet minimum to be a backup and locker room leader, great.  If not, hold a press conference to thank him for what he's meant to the team and send him on his way.  Cap Savings: 6.5M.


 

I like it all, and maybe Glennon WOULD be a good option.  But I hate the idea of handing him Kirk Cousins money because that means the competition is out the window. 

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Just now, CanadaSteve said:

Here is the interesting thing; we could not trade him last year without having the contract signed,

Wrong. We could have traded him then. We simply couldn't get the 1st round line in the sand demand MM said was the absolute minimum he'd accept in return. News flash: we won't get that this year either with him locked up.

Mo had more trade value last year quite simply because he was coming off his best statistical season. This year his trade value is lower because he's coming off a lousy season, and his awful locker room bull***t is now known to the public. 

Figure they could have gotten a 2nd rounder for Mo last year (3rd rounder at worst). No one's surrendering that for him anymore.

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30 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Wrong. We could have traded him then. We simply couldn't get the 1st round line in the sand demand MM said was the absolute minimum he'd accept in return. News flash: we won't get that this year either with him locked up.

Mo had more trade value last year quite simply because he was coming off his best statistical season. This year his trade value is lower because he's coming off a lousy season, and his awful locker room bull***t is now known to the public. 

Figure they could have gotten a 2nd rounder for Mo last year (3rd rounder at worst). No one's surrendering that for him anymore.

When I say we could not trade him, I mean that nobody would bite on what we were asking for a guy that was not signed.  You're right, we probably could have got a 2nd, but they were not letting him go for that.

IF you could get a second for him now, I think they might want to consider it and get both him and Sheldon off this team. 

 

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2 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

When I say we could not trade him, I mean that nobody would bite on what we were asking for a guy that was not signed.  You're right, we probably could have got a 2nd, but they were not letting him go for that.

IF you could get a second for him now, I think they might want to consider it and get both him and Sheldon off this team. 

 

Who's "they"? There is no "they" demanding a 1st round pick minimum for Mo; there's only Mike Maccagnan.

Why would the Jets be more eager to get Mo off the team now than the prior year? They already knew he was a douchebag that outright skipped or showed up late to team meetings called by his HC. Ultimately, Maccagnan's response to that was to sign him to a lucrative extension.

I said back then he should have dumped Mo for the highest bidder. Maccagnan had already burned through his inherited cap room, and with Williams looking so good just as a 20 yr old rookie, he was not only not needed but had actual trade value. 

Likewise, he had a team very interested in Sheldon, and I think it was before the news broke that both he and Mo would routinely skip & show up late to team meetings (not to mention his snapchat thing, or whatever else arises between now and March). But again, Maccagnan insisted on an absolute minimum of a 1st round pick, which Dallas understandably considered a nonstarter.

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8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Who's "they"? There is no "they" demanding a 1st round pick minimum for Mo; there's only Mike Maccagnan.

Why would the Jets be more eager to get Mo off the team now than the prior year? They already knew he was a douchebag that outright skipped or showed up late to team meetings called by his HC. Ultimately, Maccagnan's response to that was to sign him to a lucrative extension.

I said back then he should have dumped Mo for the highest bidder. Maccagnan had already burned through his inherited cap room, and with Williams looking so good just as a 20 yr old rookie, he was not only not needed but had actual trade value. 

Likewise, he had a team very interested in Sheldon, and I think it was before the news broke that both he and Mo would routinely skip & show up late to team meetings (not to mention his snapchat thing, or whatever else arises between now and March). But again, Maccagnan insisted on an absolute minimum of a 1st round pick, which Dallas understandably considered a nonstarter.

You're right Sperm, I'm sure Mac did not discuss this with any of the staff.  It was just his call 100 percent.

I get it; you hate Mac, and I don't.  You think he should be fired, I think he should be given another 2 years.

At least we can agree on that, can't we?

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1 minute ago, CanadaSteve said:

You're right Sperm, I'm sure Mac did not discuss this with any of the staff.  It was just his call 100 percent.

I get it; you hate Mac, and I don't.  You think he should be fired, I think he should be given another 2 years.

At least we can agree on that, can't we?

No. I disagree the call was anyone's to make but his, since he was the GM. He and the staff do not comprise GM-by-committee. It was his call. His. If he was out-voted by the HC, the DC, the DL coach, and their wives and children, it's still his call to make as the GM. 

Also I don't hate him. I just think he's done a lousy job as GM so far basically in all areas: free agency, draft, negotiations, salary cap management, and valuation of draft picks/positions. I do like coffee, though, and it would seem so does he. So there is some common ground.

Also I do like his pickup of Carpenter (even though he was not the player he actually wanted). So far I like Robbie Anderson. I like Leonard Williams (who wouldn't?) but admit I have trouble with the pick because MM was in position to make a move for a QB and instead took a 3rd DE-DT. I'd rather have seen a rookie Mariota throwing to Marshall & Decker. 

Entering his 3rd year as GM, this team is a mess with little to build upon.

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I agree that all of those guys are on the chopping block. However, I don't see them getting cut until there is someone out there to sign and replace them Some of these contracts may be redone to bring down the cap number too. That is the way Mac did it last year and I could see the same things this off season. If there is an upgrade the Jets can sign, they will cut the vet right before the signing. So I could see quite a few of these guys back because there are just too many of them to replace. 

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7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No. I disagree the call was anyone's to make but his, since he was the GM. He and the staff do not comprise GM-by-committee. It was his call. His. If he was out-voted by the HC, the DC, the DL coach, and their wives and children, it's still his call to make as the GM. 

Also I don't hate him. I just think he's done a lousy job as GM so far basically in all areas: free agency, draft, negotiations, salary cap management, and valuation of draft picks/positions. I do like coffee, though, and it would seem so does he. So there is some common ground.

Also I do like his pickup of Carpenter (even though he was not the player he actually wanted). So far I like Robbie Anderson. I like Leonard Williams (who wouldn't?) but admit I have trouble with the pick because MM was in position to make a move for a QB and instead took a 3rd DE-DT. I'd rather have seen a rookie Mariota throwing to Marshall & Decker. 

Entering his 3rd year as GM, this team is a mess with little to build upon.

uh....given the way sheldon's and wilk's attitudes are self destructing it looks like picking leo was prescient, no?  maybe the jets wouldn't get a high draft pick in return for either of those guys but getting rid of a cancer is worth it.  and don't forget the great patsies took a chance with hainsworth.  btw the great gm's pick the bpa and not worry too much about how the players is going to be used. 

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7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No. I disagree the call was anyone's to make but his, since he was the GM. He and the staff do not comprise GM-by-committee. It was his call. His. If he was out-voted by the HC, the DC, the DL coach, and their wives and children, it's still his call to make as the GM. 

Also I don't hate him. I just think he's done a lousy job as GM so far basically in all areas: free agency, draft, negotiations, salary cap management, and valuation of draft picks/positions. I do like coffee, though, and it would seem so does he. So there is some common ground.

Also I do like his pickup of Carpenter (even though he was not the player he actually wanted). So far I like Robbie Anderson. I like Leonard Williams (who wouldn't?) but admit I have trouble with the pick because MM was in position to make a move for a QB and instead took a 3rd DE-DT. I'd rather have seen a rookie Mariota throwing to Marshall & Decker. 

Entering his 3rd year as GM, this team is a mess with little to build upon.

You don't like Shell? You don't like the development of Winters? I know Winters wasn't his guy - but he didn't cut him or sign a replacement. You don't like Jenkins? I think there is a decent amount of young guys with potential on this team after just two drafts. 

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18 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

Ugh. Can't believe it's come to this.

Cut:

Ryan Clady. Too injury prone to justify a large dollar contract on a rebuilding team. Cap Savings: 10M

Nick Mangold. This hurts, but he's not what he once was. Cap Savings: 9.75M

Brandon Marshall.  In the last year of his deal, no dead money, and Decker, Enunwa and Anderson are a fine trio of starters to roll with (and under contract for a few more years).  I like the player, love the person he's become, but we can't pay this price at that age with a year left on his deal.  Cap Savings: 7.5M

Marcus Gilchrist.  Has not worked out very well, and if Revis moves to FS it won't even cost anything to replace him.  Cap Savings: 4.625M

Buster Skrine.  Another player who has not worked out at all, and is currently slated to cost 8.5M against the cap.  Cap Savings: 3.5M

Sheldon Richardson (trade for whatever the highest offer is, or cut if nobody is even offering a conditional seventh):  Adds nothing to this team and is a locker room problem.  We already have two elite 3-4 DEs in Wilkerson and Williams, and nowhere to play Richardson anyway.  The only reason to keep him would be for the comp pick after letting him walk as a FA after the season, and paying $8M for that privilege would be insane.  Cap Savings: 8M

Breno Giacomini.  'Nuff said.  Cap Savings: 4.5M

Nick Folk. This team can't spend 3.5M on a placekicker.  Cap Savings: 3M

Erin Henderson. Overpaid as a backup without much utility, passed on the depth chart by Julian Stanford anyway.  Cap Savings: 2.75M

Restructure (or cut if they won't):

Darelle Revis. Move Revis to S if he's willing to take a paycut to 6.5M for next year.  That's 500K more than his guarantee and he has offset language, so that number is a "win" for Darelle and more money than he'll see if he's cut. I'd be willing to go up to 7M if that's what it takes.  Cap Savings: 8.5M (if restructured), 8M (if cut)

David Harris.  It's only fitting that he and Revis go together.  A great teammate and leader, but he's extremely overpaid as - at best - a 2 down LB, and we drafted his replacement last year.  If he's willing to restructure and extend for close to the vet minimum to be a backup and locker room leader, great.  If not, hold a press conference to thank him for what he's meant to the team and send him on his way.  Cap Savings: 6.5M.

Doing all that leaves the Jets with ~62M in cap room.  More importantly, it creates 20M in extra cap room for 2018 by getting rid of players like Skrine a year early (prior to those moves, the Jets are about 4M over the projected 2017 cap, per Jason)

FA:  Overall, the plan here is not to spend a ton of money.  2017 is not a year the Jets will be competing for the Super Bowl, so it should be focused on building a good foundation for a run.  Extend Enunwa, resign Brian Winters if he comes at a reasonable price, resign Wesley Johnson as the starting C.  Pick up a tackle and plan to draft another to start.  Pick up complementary players at TE, CB, and LB, and look to draft a LB.  Let unused cap space roll over to 2018, where we should be poised to make a real impact in the market.

And QB?  I'd go hard after Mike Glennon - he's got a real chance to start and enough upside to be worth spending real money on, even in a rebuilding year.  For his career (mostly playing on an awful Bucs team as a rookie), he's 59.4% passing, for 4,100 yards and 30TDs to 15INTs.  I wouldn't throw crazy money at him, but if he'd take 10M per with escalators, in a structure that would let the Jets bail after 2 years if he flames out, sign me up.  A QB competition between him, Petty and Hack next year would be a pretty good spot for the Jets, comparatively, and it will let us wait on QB in a year where the prospects aren't particularly great and a lot of teams ahead of us are in need. 

Great post.  Thanks!

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17 hours ago, JiF said:

I'd love for Mangold to just retire a Jet.  Would break my heart to see him play for another team but there is no way you can pay him that money next season. David Harris too.

Do NOT restructure Revis.  Get that turd as far away from this team as possible.  We dont need him spreading his entitled lazy poison around the locker room.

Marshall I'm on the fence about.  He's fools gold.  Too many dropsies for my taste and I'm not sure he's the type of player you want around breaking in a young QB.  He seemed checked out the second they went to Fitz.  Everyone calls him a leader because he says the right things to the media but that's because he is the media.  Brandon Marshall is much more concerned with life after Football than he is about Football.  And if they're trying to build a culture, I'm not sure he's guy you want around to help with that process.  

Remove the entitled vets with special privileges.  Build this baby ground up!

 

Totally agree. I hate Marshall and his dropsies. He is NO leader at all. When Petty came into the game to relieve a terrible Fitz a TV shot showed Marshall on the sidelines making route motions with his hands. Who was he talking to? Fitzpatrick, not Petty. Marshall isn't getting open for Petty and Petty is not looking his way. Time to move on fool.

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8 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Also I do like his pickup of Carpenter (even though he was not the player he actually wanted). So far I like Robbie Anderson. I like Leonard Williams (who wouldn't?) but admit I have trouble with the pick because MM was in position to make a move for a QB and instead took a 3rd DE-DT. I'd rather have seen a rookie Mariota throwing to Marshall & Decker. 

Entering his 3rd year as GM, this team is a mess with little to build upon.

Except that Mariota had already been taken off the board by the time the Jets drafted. I think Mac has brought more players to the Jets than Idzik and Tanny combined and will continue his plan. Got to have patience with GM more so than HC because he is picking the players the HC can use. 

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18 hours ago, JiF said:

I'd love for Mangold to just retire a Jet.  Would break my heart to see him play for another team but there is no way you can pay him that money next season. David Harris too.

Do NOT restructure Revis.  Get that turd as far away from this team as possible.  We dont need him spreading his entitled lazy poison around the locker room.

Marshall I'm on the fence about.  He's fools gold.  Too many dropsies for my taste and I'm not sure he's the type of player you want around breaking in a young QB.  He seemed checked out the second they went to Fitz.  Everyone calls him a leader because he says the right things to the media but that's because he is the media.  Brandon Marshall is much more concerned with life after Football than he is about Football.  And if they're trying to build a culture, I'm not sure he's guy you want around to help with that process.  

Remove the entitled vets with special privileges.  Build this baby ground up!

 

I could see Mangold taking the D'Brick route.  Walk away when you still have your health.

Agreed re: Revis.  Why would we want a safety who's effort is lacking?  Lets not pretend Revis's performance is just about skill set at this point?

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