Jump to content

How about this approach for Jet QB


TuscanyTile2
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The only way we'd have a shot at him was if he looked terrible last year.  No way the Rams would consider trading him if he showed great promise.  Basically we'd be hoping that we were "buying low" and that he would eventually match the expectations that the Rams had for him going into last year.

At least for me, it's not that he struggled that worries me, it's how he struggled.  He got picked first because he was supposed to be the most ready QB in the class, with Wentz being the wildcard coming from inferior competition.  But Goff struggled to make reads against decent defense, getting confused with coverage consistently.  He displayed a lot of the same problems we saw with Petty, which wasn't supposed to be the case.  

Him and Petty have two common opponents (Miami-SFO), and their ratings are 68 (Petty) and roughly (52) for Goff.  I'm not saying Goff doesn't have potential, but he also didn't stand out like a No. 1 pick should.  He didn't make enough wow throws or consistent good reads.  Now, if you put a gun to my head and say Goff or Petty, pretty sure I might still go with Goff because the Jeff Fisher offense in anemic at it comes.  I used to say the Rams had a Fisher King injury (implied impotence) to the offense.   The whole bet would be that a coach who can groom a QB will fix him.   

I didn't watch him on film extensively, but from the little I did see, there was a ton of things you usually see from project QBs that aren't nearly as ready.  If say Petty or Cardale Jones or Hackenberg did this in their rookie year, it'd be perfectly fine.  It was why they were drafted where they were.  Goff was supposed to have the ability to read defenses and make all the throws, and he didn't.  His deep and intermediate passing game was horrible.  On Football Outsiders, there is a stat called ALEX (On third downs, the Average Length of a throw relative to the yards needed for a first down).  Of the qualified 34 players, he was dead last in it by a fair margin.  It's not a be all or end all stat, it just indicates that he was really just checking down consistently even on third downs.  His -2.5 score is the worst by 1.3 yards.  Even Kody Kesseler had a positive number for this.

His DVOA there says he was a -74.8& compared to the average QB.  Petty came in at -57%.  

I'm not saying he won't develop or has no chance, but he really didn't show much last year at all, which is concerning because the biggest reason he went first was his pro-readiness.  If he was airing the ball out, and teams were intercepting him, then I would be better.  If he was making good reads and taking what the defense gave him, I would feel better too.  However, I feel like he did neither of those.  I put on the first couple of drives in the SFO game as I was posting this just to see how it went, and it was pretty bad.  He had an out throw to Tavon Austin, where the defense played the perfect defense for it, and he still locked in on him and threw the ball even though he had ample space in the pocket.  It would have been a pick six if it was anywhere near on target.  Then he throws a horrible interception by throwing the ball behind his receiver.  He makes two decent throws, then misses Austin again wide open on a quick out route.  There isn't anyone near him (it's a blitz) but he throws it at his feet.  

However, considering the cost, I would rather have Petty than Goff right now.  In a vacuum, I'd say Goff because I can't trust Fisher.  But I'd rather have say Petty (and Hooker/Fournette/Tabor) than Goff/Petty.  

It is an interesting thought though.  If we didn't have Petty, I would certainly look into it.  However, I also like Watson when compared to Goff knowing that he struggled to adjust in his first year.  Last year, I thought from college than Goff would be much quicker to adjust to the NFL.  From just a physical standpoint, Watson is a better athlete with similar arm skills, and more of a proven track record.                         

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Talk to @win4ever about that. Petty looked like he progressed a great deal in reading defenses. I don't understand where you guys get this from.....I'm tired of hearing it. He clearly knew where to go with the ball 90% of the time. If you seen the breakdowns than you would know this.

Thanks.  

I really think Petty can progress this year if we get an offensive line.  I want a spread offense so some of the concepts remain the same but I think the numbers don't do him justice here.  He made good reads, and went through progressions better than Fitz, but by then the offensive line was basically useless.  I know it's a rebuild, but I'd be more confident about Petty with Marshall/Decker/Enunwa/Anderson this year than going into last year with Fitz.  

Petty is far from perfect, but I thought he displayed a good amount of potential, and a shot to start next season.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, johnnysd said:

That statement is simply not true. He was going through his progressions OK. He just was playing behind a horrific line, with players that had with players that had quit, and he was essentially learning on the fly. I was somewhat impressed by him actually. He threw a lot of nice balls. I do not want a veteran. Start Petty or Hack. Only way we get good is to DEVELOP a franchise QB

Wait, isn't this the all-star line that by re-signing winters became one of the best in the league? I guess if you always blame the medi...errr...I mean the line then Petty can always remain a potential superstar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, win4ever said:

Thanks.  

I really think Petty can progress this year if we get an offensive line.  I want a spread offense so some of the concepts remain the same but I think the numbers don't do him justice here.  He made good reads, and went through progressions better than Fitz, but by then the offensive line was basically useless.  I know it's a rebuild, but I'd be more confident about Petty with Marshall/Decker/Enunwa/Anderson this year than going into last year with Fitz.  

Petty is far from perfect, but I thought he displayed a good amount of potential, and a shot to start next season.  

I do too. I think both Petty and Hack will be better QB's next year. Before anyone jumps on my case.. I don't mean they will both be franchise super stars.. I simply mean better than they were... to what extent? Idk. But I was encouraged by Petty's play because as you said Win4 the story isn't in the numbers as much as it's in the actual film. Hack apparently as progressed well behind the scenes as being reported and I just think it's going to take patience that 97% of you don't have. I admit for a long time I didn't either but I'm just so starved to win and finally find out guy that I have taken the opposite approach and basically said **** it...these type of guys have to be developed most of the time and we won't get there by throwing away each guy that isn't Dak or Russell...I don't mean give the kids as many years as Sanchez got.(6) but more than 1-2 years please. We can be on the look out for another potential guy when the time is right but this draft isn't the one. It's obvious. It hasn't been this obvious since 2013 QB class where EJ/Geno/Glennon came out. Just let this ride and go with our guys we have now. Petty has a ways to go, but he passes the eye test.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Jetknowledge said:

I like our situation. If cousins walks I'll pay him if not that. Draft a rookie and let them battle. Hopefully Mitch. If mac likes him I want to see why. 

this team, coaching staff, and FO won't be able to progress without a mid tier qb at lease. 

I have the same amount of college starts as Mitch though. You really want to run into a Sanchez-like situation where you get a guy that barely has started at the college level but ask him to play at the Pro level? Not a chance. What is the meaning of progress for the FO? Because as I see it we can pick BPA first round..get a blue chip prospect.. a difference maker and still "progress". You are just taking snaps away from guys that have been here for a year or two. I agree with drafting QB's until you hit on one, but you don't do it every year...especially with the first pick. That's basically ending Mac's tenure here if he picks Mitch and niether Mitch not Hack turn out to be the guy. From a GM's perspective that's utterly stupid. He'll wait until he knows 120% that we don't already have "the" guy developing on the roster before he makes a rational move like picking a QB in the first round. Especially not a guy with 12 starts and especially not this QB class. I just don't see it. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I do too. I think both Petty and Hack will be better QB's next year. Before anyone jumps on my case.. I don't mean they will both be franchise super stars.. I simply mean better than they were... to what extent? Idk. But I was encouraged by Petty's play because as you said Win4 the story isn't in the numbers as much as it's in the actual film. Hack apparently as progressed well behind the scenes as being reported and I just think it's going to take patience that 97% of you don't have. I admit for a long time I didn't either but I'm just so starved to win and finally find out guy that I have taken the opposite approach and basically said **** it...these type of guys have to be developed most of the time and we won't get there by throwing away each guy that isn't Dak or Russell...I don't mean give the kids as many years as Sanchez got.(6) but more than 1-2 years please. We can be on the look out for another potential guy when the time is right but this draft isn't the one. It's obvious. It hasn't been this obvious since 2013 QB class where EJ/Geno/Glennon came out. Just let this ride and go with our guys we have now. Petty has a ways to go, but he passes the eye test.

I think the biggest aspect to developing an offense (or defense for that matter) is system fit.  The days of interchangeable systems are over IMO, because the prospects just aren't well versed in different systems.  When I first started reviewing them, my biggest contention was that, there was no way anyone could develop under the circumstances provided to Geno Smith.  There is one game I use over and over again, and that's the Ravens game in his rookie season where I saw 2 open receivers (he hit one of them) in the entire first half.  

It was one of the worst marriages ever for a QB to OC with Morningwheg, and I really think Rex hired him because he had a good reputation more so than anything.  Geno (or any spread QB) will have a horrible time adjusting to the NFL much like what happened to Goff.  In fact, Geno had a higher rating and QBR than Goff in their first years.  The clear lack of talent on offense for those teams were just terrible.  We had one team (I believe the Steelers) who actually had a player say "We knew they couldn't beat us one on one" about the receivers.   

I care a lot more about the system than I did in the past because I think it makes a huge difference.  I think the best example in maybe Namdi Asomugha since he's fairly familiar around here.  He went from a man to man defense in Oakland (where he thrived) to a zone defense in Philly (where he fell on his face).  I think the same principle applies to QBs, except for these young QBs, more and more are coming from spread systems.  Winston was a good fit in any system, Luck was a good fit in any system, and those guys go No. 1 overall.  Russel Wilson was a fit in any system, but if he was about 4 inches taller, he'd be a can't miss prospect coming out of college.  These other guys are coming in learning from one concept (make read at the line- change plays - quick one sided reads once the play happens) and then not only are they adjusting to the NFL, but rather learning a new system as well.   Why does someone like Prescot have success?  Because they surrounded him with talent with a great RB, a great WR, and an exceptional Offensive Line.  He's good, but you put him on the Browns and he isn't close to the success story he is right now, IMO.   

Petty has all the tools, he can make every throw and he can make the reads and progressions.  I was honestly surprised by some of the stuff he was able to do besides the arm because we all knew he could throw.  He went through progressions better, and he went through his pre-snap reads better than Fitzpatrick.  I don't think he's going to be a star, but I do think he would improve drastically if they could get some offensive line help.  I think I pointed it out a couple of times, but it should be almost impossible to pressure the QB with 3 man rushes (practically what they do on prevent defenses) yet we end up giving pressure.  When the LBs jump passing routes and you can't handle the minimum rushers, then it's impossible to thrive.  I think the offensive line is horrible, but it's masked by Fitzpatrick being a one read QB.  They don't have to protect for long, because it's rare for Fitz to actually wait for the second option to be open.  

Now if we hire a guy that strictly runs a west coast offense or ground and pound offense, then might as well throw it all out because I don't think Petty is going to do well in it.  However, if we hire someone that can run a spread concept with some up-tempo aspects, I think he'll surprise people.  By surprise, I mean about league average, but that would be a major step up for us, and he'd still be cheap for 2 more years.  

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

I have the same amount of college starts as Mitch though. You really want to run into a Sanchez-like situation where you get a guy that barely has started at the college level but ask him to play at the Pro level? Not a chance. What is the meaning of progress for the FO? Because as I see it we can pick BPA first round..get a blue chip prospect.. a difference maker and still "progress". You are just taking snaps away from guys that have been here for a year or two. I agree with drafting QB's until you hit on one, but you don't do it every year...especially with the first pick. That's basically ending Mac's tenure here if he picks Mitch and niether Mitch not Hack turn out to be the guy. From a GM's perspective that's utterly stupid. He'll wait until he knows 120% that we don't already have "the" guy developing on the roster before he makes a rational move like picking a QB in the first round. Especially not a guy with 12 starts and especially not this QB class. I just don't see it. 

I agree but if him and his scouts do there do diligence with it. 

Get to know the kid, see where his mind at, if he can physically do all that's required, and feel confident moving forward. I would wonder what else you need to take the shot. Not trading up for him but why not take the shot if you feel he can be the franchise qb. Now if mac don't then go best player available. But if mac does y not. I think physically Mitch is better then any jet qb I've ever seen but what I don't I can't find out till he starts his career. But I love that quick release when the pass rush coming I know he can get it out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/26/2017 at 5:06 AM, win4ever said:

I think the biggest aspect to developing an offense (or defense for that matter) is system fit.  The days of interchangeable systems are over IMO, because the prospects just aren't well versed in different systems.  When I first started reviewing them, my biggest contention was that, there was no way anyone could develop under the circumstances provided to Geno Smith.  There is one game I use over and over again, and that's the Ravens game in his rookie season where I saw 2 open receivers (he hit one of them) in the entire first half.  

It was one of the worst marriages ever for a QB to OC with Morningwheg, and I really think Rex hired him because he had a good reputation more so than anything.  Geno (or any spread QB) will have a horrible time adjusting to the NFL much like what happened to Goff.  In fact, Geno had a higher rating and QBR than Goff in their first years.  The clear lack of talent on offense for those teams were just terrible.  We had one team (I believe the Steelers) who actually had a player say "We knew they couldn't beat us one on one" about the receivers.   

I care a lot more about the system than I did in the past because I think it makes a huge difference.  I think the best example in maybe Namdi Asomugha since he's fairly familiar around here.  He went from a man to man defense in Oakland (where he thrived) to a zone defense in Philly (where he fell on his face).  I think the same principle applies to QBs, except for these young QBs, more and more are coming from spread systems.  Winston was a good fit in any system, Luck was a good fit in any system, and those guys go No. 1 overall.  Russel Wilson was a fit in any system, but if he was about 4 inches taller, he'd be a can't miss prospect coming out of college.  These other guys are coming in learning from one concept (make read at the line- change plays - quick one sided reads once the play happens) and then not only are they adjusting to the NFL, but rather learning a new system as well.   Why does someone like Prescot have success?  Because they surrounded him with talent with a great RB, a great WR, and an exceptional Offensive Line.  He's good, but you put him on the Browns and he isn't close to the success story he is right now, IMO.   

Petty has all the tools, he can make every throw and he can make the reads and progressions.  I was honestly surprised by some of the stuff he was able to do besides the arm because we all knew he could throw.  He went through progressions better, and he went through his pre-snap reads better than Fitzpatrick.  I don't think he's going to be a star, but I do think he would improve drastically if they could get some offensive line help.  I think I pointed it out a couple of times, but it should be almost impossible to pressure the QB with 3 man rushes (practically what they do on prevent defenses) yet we end up giving pressure.  When the LBs jump passing routes and you can't handle the minimum rushers, then it's impossible to thrive.  I think the offensive line is horrible, but it's masked by Fitzpatrick being a one read QB.  They don't have to protect for long, because it's rare for Fitz to actually wait for the second option to be open.  

Now if we hire a guy that strictly runs a west coast offense or ground and pound offense, then might as well throw it all out because I don't think Petty is going to do well in it.  However, if we hire someone that can run a spread concept with some up-tempo aspects, I think he'll surprise people.  By surprise, I mean about league average, but that would be a major step up for us, and he'd still be cheap for 2 more years.  

I approve of the length of this post. 

  • Upvote 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/25/2017 at 5:59 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think I've mentioned this before but repeating here...

How about the Jets trade their 1st rounder (#6 overall) to the Rams for Jared Goff.  Basically the Rams would be taking a mulligan and the Jets would be hoping Goff just needed time to develop (remember it took Eli like 4 years to be any good).  If Goff is good then we're set.  If he stinks, we can probably pick Darnold next year.

Assuming the Rams would accept (I have no idea if they would but it sounds "in the ballpark" at least), would you make this trade?

Lets just give up our entire 2017 draft and sheldon richardson for andrew luck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/25/2017 at 6:59 PM, TuscanyTile2 said:

I think I've mentioned this before but repeating here...

How about the Jets trade their 1st rounder (#6 overall) to the Rams for Jared Goff.  Basically the Rams would be taking a mulligan and the Jets would be hoping Goff just needed time to develop (remember it took Eli like 4 years to be any good).  If Goff is good then we're set.  If he stinks, we can probably pick Darnold next year.

Assuming the Rams would accept (I have no idea if they would but it sounds "in the ballpark" at least), would you make this trade?

Not a good idea. We need all our DPs. He's basically on par with Petty to date and maybe Hack will be good. Develop what we have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, joewilly12 said:

Petty and Hackenberg is all we have are you sure? 

I'm not sure what the Jets will end up with as far as QBs. Draft another QB, grab a free agent vet. Got to wait and see but Goff is off to a rough start. What I've seen of him as a pro doesn't look a whole lot better than Petty. Like I've said before not all college QBs that get drafted high transition into successful pro QBs. We don't even know what we have with Hack yet although most on here have him written off after seeing him play a quarter in the 2016 preseason. Just don't think Goff is the answer and if the Rams want to deal him for a six round pick, they must think he sucks too. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share



×
×
  • Create New...