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Patrick Mahomes Article


RJIII

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On 2/16/2017 at 10:06 AM, RJIII said:

Fair assessment on the air ride system type QB. None have panned out and the Jets have been burned twice (Geno, Petty). Neither of those two come close to the football IQ of Pat or ability or arm strength and accuracy. Time will tell. Keep your eyes him wherever he lands! 

Yea...we have a large body of work to dismiss Petty on.

 

 

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On 2/15/2017 at 9:28 PM, RJIII said:

All good man! And trust me, Its tough living in Texas and being a Jet fan.. :cool:

Interesting inside info on Pat. AFC teams are really high on him and the emergence Dak Prescot is forcing QB starving teams to take a chance early rather than miss out. Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland, KC, Houston, Pitt! ALL very high on Pat and possible day 1 landing spots. Have not heard him linked to the Jets at all. One of those 6 teams is more than likely where he ends up if drafted in the 1st. (Information straight from teams and agent Leigh Steinberg)

If somehow he drops to the 2nd round its a free for all and could literally go to any team. NFC teams that have shown interest have him day 2. 

So, if he's drafted in the 1st round rest assure you will see him often every year! 

No chance in hell is isn't taken in the 2nd if he drops! If that does happens I'll change careers and ship you the best bottle of whisky made in TEXAS. Garrison Brothers Whiskey..

 

I'm very much a Whiskey fan so I might just hold you to this brotha 👍

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On 2/16/2017 at 0:26 AM, RJIII said:
FRS NFL

Is Patrick Mahomes the best QB in the NFL Draft?

ARLINGTON, TX - NOVEMBER 25: Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Patrick Mahomes II (5) passes during the NCAA football game between Baylor University and Texas Tech on November 25, 2016, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire)
(GEORGE WALKER/ICON SPORTSWIRE)

It’s natural to be immediately turned off by something you’re not used to. In football, this is especially true. People who watch the sport every Sunday cannot stand the thought of variance. In most people’s mind, there’s one way to do something. If it’s not done that way, they’re immediately combative. Texas Tech’s Patrick Mahomes is living proof that there’s more than one way to skin a cat when it comes to playing the position at a high level.

If you’re familiar with “the Parcells rules” the lone area Mahomes falls short that he can control is he has less than 23 wins. Mahomes lost five games this year alone where he led his offense to over 35 points. Two of those losses the offense scored over 55 points. Mahomes is basically a walking asterisk.

4 MAIN TRAITS

When you break it down, there’s essentially four major traits and we can either build off each or lump them: accuracy, arm, pocket movement and decision making. There are plenty of reps where each of these tie into each other. Here’s how Mahomes fares for each trait. I’ll use three examples for each. While I’ll only use three, these are consistently what I see with Mahomes, not anomalies.

ACCURACY

Ball placement is the most important trait for a QB. Subtle differences like leading a receiver so he can maximize the yards after catch, throwing him open, letting him run under deep passes, are all vital to the position and it’s what separates the top 10 quarterbacks from the guys who likely won’t get second contracts. Accuracy can be affected by plenty of things. In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy due to

In the most layman terms, we see inaccuracy with his lower body all out of whack. An example being something as simple as not following through on your throws. So your “trail leg” leave the ground. “Step to and through to your target” is something I always hear. This ties into a quarterback’s upper body as well. You can watch a quarterback and see if he falls off to his left or right, instead of through the receiver, and safely assume the throw was inaccurate.

Not with Mahomes. Not the walking asterisk.

 

You can see from the end zone angle Mahomes feet are parallel with the sideline. That has to drive a QB coach nuts. Until you see the result is low and away from the defender.

I see many people are terrified of Mahomes mechanics. I would be as well if he was missing throws left and right. With Patrick, it’s more laziness and reliant on his arm than anything else. I’d compare it to a freakishly gifted receiver who never had to learn to run precise routes because he always won with athleticism. Mahomes is in the same boat, just with his arm.

Make no mistake, there are gimme throws he will miss because he doesn’t do the day 1 footwork steps. That causes him to 1 hop curl throws. Or lead receivers over the middle a step too far. Or the ball will sail on him. There are also times where he plays “too fast.” He has more time than he thinks and he doesn’t get set and will overshoot his receivers deep.

 

The good thing about Mahomes is he recognizes things quickly and has a quick trigger. When he’s playing slow and under control, he gets in a zone and looks like a star QB. It’s the inconsistencies, like speeding up his process, that makes him maddening. You can only get away with your arm for so long.

The thing that I’ve been most impressive with is Mahomes on third downs. His accuracy when he needs to make a play goes to another level. That cannot be discounted. It’s not always the big, flashy play, either. Sure, he has plenty of them. But the throws that are easily overlooked are what stood out to me.

 

It’s third and one and the defender is all over the receiver. Mahomes puts the ball low and away, where not only the receiver can make the play, but still gives him a chance to run after the catch. I’d say about 5-10 times a game there were throws where he’d make a throw like that. It doesn’t seem like much, but his ball placement really lets his playmakers get the most out of plays.

If I had to put a grade on it, I’d say Mahomes has mid-second-round accuracy.

ARM

Arm strength is key. Pretending like it isn’t is naive. You can hide some things with timing but only so much. I’m not referring to how far you can throw it. I’m very much referring to velocity up to 15 yards at all levels. When judging an arm it’s not just limited that, either. How is a quarterback using his arm? Does he know when to use the right trajectory? Does he have the touch to loft it over linebackers? Can he drop it in a bucket over the corners head? Everything can’t be a bullet, but everything can’t be a softball.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

There are plenty of quarterbacks with strong arms. Not many quarterbacks can complement their velocity with touch. With Mahomes, this isn’t a problem. At all.

 

The second and fifth throws are great examples of how easy Mahomes makes downfield throws. These throws you are seeing are not routine. They’re not normal. You’d be hard pressed to find 10 quarterbacks at any level that can make them.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

 

You could easily credit this to pocket presence as Mahomes hangs in there as a blitzer is running full speed to decapitate him on third down. But an opposite hash throw that’s on target with the perfect precision is everything you want.

Mahomes has the best arm in the class.

Being able to make each throw to every level of the field opens up the playbook for play-callers. On scramble drills, the defense has to respect everyone. The defense is held accountable. Having a big arm is significant. Putting a grade on it, Mahomes has a top 5 grade on his arm.

POCKET MOVEMENT

Pocket movement is somewhat self-explanatory. When you’re getting rushed from the edge, do you climb if there’s a pocket to step into? If you’re getting flushed from the pocket up the middle, are you sliding left or right to buy your receivers more time? Do you bail from a clean pocket? There’s going to be several times a game when you have to leave the pocket. When you’re asked to scramble, do you drop your eyes or are you keeping your eyes downfield?

In Mahomes case, he has some of the best QB vision I’ve seen in recent years. Watch him and watch his helmet. He not only goes through progressions quickly but he knows where his receivers are at all times. When he is flushed from the pocket it’s remarkable how Mahomes eyes remain downfield to find a receiver. Watch him when his first read isn’t there. There’s no panic. Calmly scans the field and will maneuver around the pocket and hit a receiver in stride.

 

Third and long and it’s a zone blitz. Virtually, both edge guys come free. Mahomes manipulates 1 defender and runs away from the other. All while keeping his eyes downfield and making an accurate strike downfield. With him, this was the norm. With him, if he didn’t convert on third down, you figured something must’ve gone wrong.

 

 

That is an incredible stat considering the pressure he faced. Mahomes converted in spite of his offensive line. I’m not going to ignore that. He’s a playmaker.

 

Protecting the ball is just as important. I get that we’re worried about how he carries the ball, but he’s not turning it over at a reckless rate so there’s no need to expect that it will suddenly become a problem in the NFL.

I mentioned how Mahomes plays too fast. There are exposures where he flees the pocket too quickly wanting to make something happen. I’m not overly concerned considering I’ve seen him stand tall in the face of the blitz. But I’m not going to pretend like it doesn’t happen. He will leave a clean pocket. His internal clock is too fast in the pocket.

Where Mahomes excels is when he’s forced to climb the pocket. He will scramble but only as a last resort. He’s looking for someone to come open at the last minute and as we know, the smallest of windows aren’t an issue for him.

 

It looks easy. It’s not supposed to be. In a situation like that, a common quarterback would drop his eyes and likely try to rush for the first down. Patrick is uncommon. He is unlike the majority of quarterbacks you will watch. There will be variance. It won’t always be sunshine and roses. In the pocket, he’ll take sacks he shouldn’t be trying to do too much when he should either throw it out of bounds or take the check down. By in large his ability to shift around the pocket is high quality by NFL standards.

 

Third and 20. Left guard gets beat. Mahomes climbs the pocket, avoids the rush, doesn’t panic and throws a dart 20 yards down the seam for a first down.

Putting a grade on Mahomes pocket movement I’d give him a fringe 2nd round grade.

DECISION MAKING

Another self-explanatory trait that is imperative with the position. Good decision making and being a good quarterback is synonymous. The right decision sometimes can be as simple as throwing the ball out of bounds when nothing is there. Or dumping it off to your running back. There are times where eating the ball and taking a sack is a good decision. You could tie this into the trio of traits above as well.

In the structure of the play, Mahomes makes fine decisions. He knows where to go at all times with the ball, that certainly helps. The decision making is quick, and throws are on time. With Tech’s spread offense, often teams will rush three and drop eight. When they do this it’s a great way to get a feel for Mahomes decision making. He did a good job of letting routes develop and taking the check down. Tech also runs a ton of screens and he shows the awareness not to force it if it’s not there. Those are the small things you appreciate about Mahomes.

The further away from the structure of the play, the worse Mahomes decision making gets. Once a game he’ll have a WTF throw. The worst part is they come at the most inopportune times. These are the throws that turn people away from him, not the “system.”

 

Everything is wrong with this rep. Notice the down and distance. You hear coaches say “every possession needs to end with a kick.” Mahomes needs to take the loss here and realize that a punt isn’t bad. Luckily, the receiver bailed him out.

 

You can see that, at times, his gift is his curse. His ability to see the field and the arm he has makes Mahomes feel like he can get away with throws he has no business making. That entire rep was a bad decision. Starting with drifting in the pocket, to not getting his feet set, lead to him throwing across his body and the outcome of an interception isn’t much of a surprise.

This last one is a pick six nine out of 10 times. He just happened to get lucky here.

 

That’s a situation where either dump it to the running back or eat it. I can imagine a coordinator wanting to put those electric chokers on Mahomes during practice for whenever he gets that impulse to make a poor decision, you get the point.

I would give Mahomes a third-round grade for his decision making. There is a ton of good but the lows are worrisome.

WHY YOU PICK MAHOMES

Now that I’ve lost you, let me reel you back in. I could show you 20 plays where your jaw just drops. There was a series against TCU where he avoided a sack every play. On fourth down, he avoided two defenders and picked up the first down with his legs. Some of his throws on the run where he hits a receiver in stride I could play on a loop all day.

His vision is uncanny. His arm is unbelievable. His accuracy is unorthodox. If you can hone in his decision making, you’re looking at a future star. Being able to create and extend is a skill. He’s not confined to a specific offense. That matters.

Don’t criticize him for the offense he played in. Applaud him for how he excelled and elevated the offense. At worst, you get a high variance QB that will go on streaks just long enough to give him a pass (Eli Manning). At best, you get a QB that can control the entire field with his vision, manipulate defenses with pump fakes, his legs, and consistently keep your offense ahead of schedule, ultimately leading to a lot of point (Ben Roethlisberger). Because of that, and the traits Mahomes excel at are why I believe he’s the best quarterback in the draft.

Sounds like we need to take this guy in the second round and redshirt him until his mechanics have improved...................................

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Well, it's clearly hype time in the NFL. I dont want him, he isnt a good fit for us right now...I don't know if he is the real deal or not but a few things are obvious. 

1. Coach is obviously biased. I'm not saying anything bad but you have some insight on this kid that you do NOT have on other QB's you are comparing him to personally and professionally. I love the analysis but if I worked with a kid for 3 years I'd believe in him and want him to succeed too.

2. We are not in a position to take on another 2-3 year QB project. 

3. We don't have " a situation where he has a supporting cast of offensive and defensive players, allows him time to step in the pocket, have time to make reads and check downs, and has a defense that can keep teams from scoring 50+ point" 

4. We dont have the O-line to protect ANY scrambling, improvisational, air raid QB with mechanical issues. He needs to go to a team that has a sound enough line to protect him if they let him play so when his footwork or the play breaks down he still has time to make those throws. Even if that team's defense is a little suspect, if this kid is the real deal he will keep them in games if the line is good. lol that is NOT the case here with the o-line or the defense. 

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On 2/19/2017 at 6:40 AM, jetspenguin said:

Well, it's clearly hype time in the NFL. I dont want him, he isnt a good fit for us right now...I don't know if he is the real deal or not but a few things are obvious. 

1. Coach is obviously biased. I'm not saying anything bad but you have some insight on this kid that you do NOT have on other QB's you are comparing him to personally and professionally. I love the analysis but if I worked with a kid for 3 years I'd believe in him and want him to succeed too.

2. We are not in a position to take on another 2-3 year QB project. 

3. We don't have " a situation where he has a supporting cast of offensive and defensive players, allows him time to step in the pocket, have time to make reads and check downs, and has a defense that can keep teams from scoring 50+ point" 

4. We dont have the O-line to protect ANY scrambling, improvisational, air raid QB with mechanical issues. He needs to go to a team that has a sound enough line to protect him if they let him play so when his footwork or the play breaks down he still has time to make those throws. Even if that team's defense is a little suspect, if this kid is the real deal he will keep them in games if the line is good. lol that is NOT the case here with the o-line or the defense. 

Point #1 - I have an extremely deep knowledge of every 2 deep QB at every P5 conference school in the country! FYI,. Thats roughly a 100 QB's...

Point #2 - True statement however, don't really have a choice. FA will not yield a franchise QB. NFL is a QB driven league now.

Point #3 - You do! I was referring to the TT defense which is less than stellar and the NFL parity makes up for that both offensivly and defensively. The difference in college rosters at P5 schools is painfully obvious. The Blue Blood schools are on a different level, the rest of us struggle each year filling in the gaps.

Point #4 - Good point! FA can yield several OL for stability.. There are several AFC teams considering Pat in the 1st. The Jets will get plenty of this kid in years to come. 

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Wow it is awsome to hear that you worked with him.

I have been talking about Mahomes here in this forum a couple of times and have been killed by so many that say he is a proyect n should not be drafted in 1st. I really like Mahomes I think he will become a franchise. I don't put as much weight on his need to improve mechanics as everyone keeps saying because I have watched him throw perfectly accurate pasess with bad mechanics. As long as the ball gets to the receiver on time and accurately I could care less with what foot he throws it off. Aaron Rodgers doesn't always have great mechanics but gets the ball out on time n accurately.

I think if the NY jets draft him in the 1st round they still have a chance to draft a #1 WR and a #1 RB in this draft to help him out. If I was the NY jets GM I would draft Evan Engram and James Conner in this 2017 draft and with those weapons I would help Mahomes be successful. I think with every QB a lot has to do with the weapon arounds them, but in this case Mahomes I believe is the only one out of this whole QB class that did more with less. Both Watson n Trubisky had awsome weapons on offense, especially Trubisky which had a #1 RB in Elijah Hood and a#2 RB in TJ Logan who had only 1 drop pass in 3 years, 3 years!!!!! N in those 3 years he caught 66 passes.

Here is the link to an article comparing Patrick Mahomes to Jared Goff, it is very interesting. By the way I really hope anyone from the NY jets organization reads your post n actually contacts you to interview about Mahomes, as you said this kid will be a franchise and it would be a shame that because NY jets draft a QB last year they decide to not give this kid a chance. Because he will probably end up playing against our Jets n beating our behinds for the next 10 years.

http://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2017/2/13/14603754/a-qb-comparison

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