To QB or not QB

[The Crusher]

2 minutes ago, JiF said:

You may have misunderstood my post. My point was I find it amazing that a team and fan base, like the Jets desperate for a franchise QB is willing to punt on taking a QB at #6 when it seems as if they should have a legit shot at one of the top 3.  

So after clarifying that, I dont think taking a QB at #6 really impacts Hack's positoin on the roster at all.  Let them battle it out.  If Hack wins, cool.  If he doesnt, cool.  Having a plethora of a QB's is a good thing and a welcomed change in Jets land. 

 

I see no harm in drafting a QB at 6 this year. Just cut Petty. It's pretty clear to anyone paying attention he is not a franchise type QB or he is very good at hiding it. If we happen to draft a QB that can play or by some ripple in the force Hack turns into a player we go with it. If we got a chance to get Sam next year then we take him. Though I love the way the kid plays I do see the impracticable aspect of it. He could suck year 2, we win one game two many or he just stays at USC. At this point I agree we just keep opening chocolate bars  till we find the golden ticket . 

[Paradis]

Just now, Tinstar said:

If this all blows up in his face he should be fired, but that comes with the territory .

100%   So given that, would hang your future on Trubisky? I sure as fck wouldn't....

no GM is going to take a QB every year in the top 2 rounds for exactly the same reason. It SCREAMS - "I have no clue what i'm doing, fire me"

[nicg4360]

This draft sucks for QBs, I'm looking a few years down the line: http://247sports.com/Player/Drew-Pyne-88572
#PiningforPyne

No doubt at this rate we could be joining you when Darnold begins to falter.

Sent from my XT1635-02 using JetNation.com mobile app

[JustInFudge]

26 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

It's pretty unbelievable the Jets actually stuck to their plans despite stupid fans shouting for him to start one or two pointless games. Fans know nothing about Hack right now, I have no idea why everyone is writing him off. 

Aren't Trubisky and Watson considered projects themselves? Maybe not as much as Hack but I've never read anywhere where they can be thrown in and lead a team, even if it's a contender. It would be best to sit them as well if we did end up drafting one of the 2. Then we're gonna hear "Trubisky can't even beat out Petty....Mac's clueless!"

Fans dont know anything about Hack, you're right.  But when a player is taken in the 2nd round and the team was too scared to dress him, I think it's a pretty fair indication of what they think they have right now.  sh*t happens and maybe he makes a huge jump in a year 2 but lets be honest, its highly unlikely.

I'm not sure why Watson is considered a project.  It's been one of the most baffling stories of the offseason.  Trubisky with 1 year of starting experience scares the sh*t out of me but many seem very high on him.  Either way, having a stable of young QB's battling it out is a good thing and so much more important than this years #1 Safety prospect. 

[Warfish]

31 minutes ago, JiF said:

This 100%.  It happens every year.  People forget but 3 years ago, Christian Hackenberg was Sam Darnold.

2 year ago after the Bama game, everyone was like, suck for Watson.  Was does Watson do the next season?  Everything he was asked to do and more by once again shredding Bama but this time winning the whole damn thing.  Then a couple dipsh*ts that dont know their ass from their elbow started screaming, MPH, Spread offense, no snaps under center and blah blah blabitty blah and here we are thinking about actually passing on this dude because next year's shinny object is shinier all of a sudden?

It's moronic.  Legit. 

 

Good post.

There will always be a "wait till next year, X is gonna be HUGE!" prospect.  

The more I research, the more I may be shifting my wish from Trubisky to Watson tbqh.  Arguments like what you wrote above are IMO compelling, and he is a winner.

It's funny, because I've read a few scouting mags/sites, and the player they keep comparing Watson to is Tyrod Taylor, but better.  Tyrod, of course, is a guy alot of Jets fans wanted us to try and get (at a cost of likely 15 mill+ per year) if he shook loose from Buffalo.

Honestly, while I want to see Hack get a shot, I'm hesitant to bank our future on A. Hack and B. That we might be bad enough to draft the QB we want next year (presuming someone doesn't say "wait till 2019, X will be there and HE'LL be HUGE!" at that point).

[JustInFudge]

22 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

The spread is a legit concern. Boyd put up similar numbers in that offense. A lot of short throws etc. And I like Watson too...

It cant be looked at as a concern anymore IMO.  Only like 3 programs in the entire country run a traditional pro style offense.  And as for Clemson's version of the spread, they push the ball down field aggressively.  Much more so than most spreads and much more so than say what Mariota was asked to do in college (who I think is an identical prospect for comparison).  I think that's part of the reason why Watson threw so many picks.  They attack every level of the field.  

I personally dont think you can look at the offense/program in a vacuum like that when it comes to evaluating a QB.  Guys put up big numbers in specific systems but not all prospect are created equally.  EJ Manuel and Jameis Winston come to mind. 

[thadude]

We should be drafting a QB every season

 

Hack is TERRIBLE

Petty isn't much better

 

 

[thadude]

Just now, JiF said:

It cant be looked at as a concern anymore IMO.  Only like 3 programs in the entire country run a traditional pro style offense.  And as for Clemson's version of the spread, they push the ball down field aggressively.  Much more so than most spreads and much more so than say what Mariota was asked to do in college (who I think is an identical prospect for comparison).  I think that's part of the reason why Watson threw so many picks.  They attack every level of the field.  

I personally dont think you can look at the offense/program in a vacuum like that when it comes to evaluating a QB.  Guys put up big numbers in specific systems but not all prospect are created equally.  EJ Manuel and Jameis Winston come to mind. 

Sure the spread isn't a concern it's only produced like three dozen crappy 1st and 2nd round qb's last 5-6 years

[JustInFudge]

26 minutes ago, JetsFanatic said:

Just because he was not ready to play last year doesn't mean he is not going to be a good QB. He was only 21. I'm not guaranteeing anything but I still have hopes for him.

And that's fair but the hope that Christian Hackenberg develops into an actual QB should not prevent you from taking a QB.  I would actually argue it should encourage you to for competition reasons.  Plus, if you have 2 on your roster...that's an incredibly awesome problem to have. 

[thadude]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Fans dont know anything about Hack, you're right.  But when a player is taken in the 2nd round and the team was too scared to dress him, I think it's a pretty fair indication of what they think they have right now.  sh*t happens and maybe he makes a huge jump in a year 2 but lets be honest, its highly unlikely.

I'm not sure why Watson is considered a project.  It's been one of the most baffling stories of the offseason.  Trubisky with 1 year of starting experience scares the sh*t out of me but many seem very high on him.  Either way, having a stable of young QB's battling it out is a good thing and so much more important than this years #1 Safety prospect. 

Watson isn't a project he will be at his most effective as a rookie when no one in the NFL has seen him play on tape in the NFL yet 

 

Once teams get to study him it will be over

 

Same thing that happened to Vince Young, Tim Tebow and Colin Kaepernick

 

[JustInFudge]

16 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I don't think that's at all what's happening here. At least for some. 

The QBs suck this year, and some people (can't speak for OP) think we should play out the current roster and reevaluate next year. More options. 

Disagree.  I'll argue Watson was better than any prospect that came out last year. 

Just wait till all the QB's are reevaluated and some bozo's says Darnold's cant throw left or dips his shoulders or has 2 left feet and then everyone is like but Jacob Eason is soooo dreamy in 2019.

 

[JustInFudge]

17 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

I see no harm in drafting a QB at 6 this year. Just cut Petty. It's pretty clear to anyone paying attention he is not a franchise type QB or he is very good at hiding it. If we happen to draft a QB that can play or by some ripple in the force Hack turns into a player we go with it. If we got a chance to get Sam next year then we take him. Though I love the way the kid plays I do see the impracticable aspect of it. He could suck year 2, we win one game two many or he just stays at USC. At this point I agree we just keep opening chocolate bars  till we find the golden ticket . 

100%.  You cant manage a roster in hopes that you're going to land the unicorn in the next draft.  It's a terrible strategy. 

[thadude]

Just now, JiF said:

100%.  You cant manage a roster in hopes that you're going to land the unicorn in the next draft.  It's a terrible strategy. 

Too bad it's our strategy

[Warfish]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

Disagree.  I'll argue Watson was better than any prospect that came out last year. 

Just wait till all the QB's are reevaluated and some bozo's says Darnold's cant throw left or dips his shoulders or has 2 left feet and then everyone is like but Jacob Eason is soooo dreamy in 2019.

 

Brings to mind the "workout warrior" problem.

Teams that rely too much on "expert" opinion in the right-before the draft period, and ignore eveythign a player did their entire college career.

It's how you draft guys like Ghost, and Hack, and Sanchez.  And worse.

If you're going to take a risk, take a risk on a guy who did everything they could on the college playing field.  See how that works, cause the other tactic isn't working for us at all.

[JustInFudge]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Good post.

There will always be a "wait till next year, X is gonna be HUGE!" prospect.  

The more I research, the more I may be shifting my wish from Trubisky to Watson tbqh.  Arguments like what you wrote above are IMO compelling, and he is a winner.

It's funny, because I've read a few scouting mags/sites, and the player they keep comparing Watson to is Tyrod Taylor, but better.  Tyrod, of course, is a guy alot of Jets fans wanted us to try and get (at a cost of likely 15 mill+ per year) if he shook loose from Buffalo.

Honestly, while I want to see Hack get a shot, I'm hesitant to bank our future on A. Hack and B. That we might be bad enough to draft the QB we want next year (presuming someone doesn't say "wait till 2019, X will be there and HE'LL be HUGE!" at that point).

I'd love to see Hack get a shot.  I'd love for him to be the guy.  But what I'm not doing is passing on a kid like Watson who I think is uber talented and has the IT factor in hope that Hack develops and in hopes that next years shinny object stays shiny and is available when the Jets pick.  Literally a million factors that could make that shiny object not so shiny. 

[JustInFudge]

8 minutes ago, thadude said:

Sure the spread isn't a concern it's only produced like three dozen crappy 1st and 2nd round qb's last 5-6 years

Name me the college programs that dont run the spread. 

[ChuckkieB]

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in evaluating this year's QB class, but if our GM thinks that there is a franchise QB in this draft and he's available at #6, he has to pull the trigger.  Without a QB, you cannot expect to compete for a Super Bowl year in and year out.  The Jets have to keep swinging for the fences with QB's in the draft until they hit a home run.

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, thadude said:

Watson isn't a project he will be at his most effective as a rookie when no one in the NFL has seen him play on tape in the NFL yet 

 

Once teams get to study him it will be over

 

Same thing that happened to Vince Young, Tim Tebow and Colin Kaepernick

 

What?  okay...

[Paradis]

16 minutes ago, JiF said:

Disagree.  I'll argue Watson was better than any prospect that came out last year. 

Just wait till all the QB's are reevaluated and some bozo's says Darnold's cant throw left or dips his shoulders or has 2 left feet and then everyone is like but Jacob Eason is soooo dreamy in 2019.

 

I don't g.a.f. about Darnold. He's still a new to me. I sure as hell would like to see us evaluate Rosen, Allen, Falk, and Jackson for starters though...

I love Watson, i do... just not in the NFL. I hope I'm wrong... but I kinda know I'm not.

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Brings to mind the "workout warrior" problem.

Teams that rely too much on "expert" opinion in the right-before the draft period, and ignore eveythign a player did their entire college career.

It's how you draft guys like Ghost, and Hack, and Sanchez.  And worse.

If you're going to take a risk, take a risk on a guy who did everything they could on the college playing field.  See how that works, cause the other tactic isn't working for us at all.

For sure and the reality of the situation is, there is no end all be all type of evaluation for the QB position.  There is no historical data or test or anything that can predict future success in the NFL.  It's the hardest positoin to evaluate and teams even the one led by smart leaders, get it wrong all the time.

At this point, did he start and win a lot of games?  Do the important stats look good?  Did he beat top competition?  Does he have the proper tools?  Than take a chance. 

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

As would I, especially Hack.  I do not believe drafting a QB in 2017 means not playing Hack in 2017.  

Quite the contrary, any QB we draft in 2017 likely needs to sit a year, as Hack did.

Development in Depth.  

I was with you (at least can understand your view).....right up to that last line.  

All due respect, no one anywhere thinks Hack and Watson/Trubisky are equal prospects with equal long term potential.

And comparing Petty, as a prospect, to either the top two guys is no contest, Petty isn't int he ballpark as a prospect.

But once again, I would stress that drafting a QB does not require playing that QB now, instantly.  Petty and Hack can both get their "fair chance", but if they falter, we at the least have another prospect in the pipeline ready to go.  

Only if mismanaged.  And all due respect, lets not act like protecting Petty reps is so valuble we should punt on materially superior prospects to ensure he gets those reps.

I simply do not agree.  The Redskins took RG III and Cousins in the same draft!  And it worked out great for them.  As an example.  

Again, we must overcome old, outdated, logic when it comes to the draft.  1st round QB's are not 100 million investments anymore.  You can draft them as often as needed, and your cap can handle it.  

We need to start looking at QB's like starting pitchers

Your embarrassment (and my own) is irrelevant tbqh.

Think about that for a minute.  

Life isn;t fair.  If the two kids cannot rise to the challenge, they were never going to rise to any challenge.

And the sh*tty NY media will lose it's mind no matter what happens, be assured.

And when the Jets finish 6-10 in 2017, and pick 8th, and all the "great" QB's are already gone by #8?   What then?  

Until we address the QB position, legitimately, we will continue to suck.  Waiting will not solve the problem.  Limiting prospects to only old midrounders like Petty and overdrafted near-sure-busts like Hack.....not the solution.

Just wait, when McCown wins the job, I do very much hope you lose your sh*t over that, for all the reasons you stated above, taking reps away, not knowing what we have, etc.  because be assured, Hack isn't beatout out McCown for the #1 job, and Bowles will play who helps him not get fired, not whats best for the long term of the franchise.

if I thought Watson, Trubisky or Kizer were going to be any good I would obviously agree with you. 

 

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Paradis said:

I don't g.a.f. about Darnold. He's still a new to me. I sure as hell would like to see us evaluate Rosen, Allen, Falk, and Jackson for starters though...

I love Watson, i do... just not in the NFL. I hope I'm wrong... but I kinda know I'm not.

You're not alone and I find it amusing.  I dont see what's not to like.

The reality is, you dont know and neither do I but the idea of passing on him is just out right crazy to me.  Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went #1 and #2 but Watson isnt worth #6?

Bizarre.  To say the least. 

 

[UnitedWhofans]

JiF, as a thought, why do you think Deshaun Watson is not getting any love by the draftniks? His selections are all over the place

[HessStation]

5 minutes ago, JiF said:

You're not alone and I find it amusing.  I dont see what's not to like.

The reality is, you dont know and neither do I but the idea of passing on him is just out right crazy to me.  Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went #1 and #2 but Watson isnt worth #6?

Bizarre.  To say the least. 

 

As much as i disagree w you, at least Watson has all the mental make up you're looking for. And really what is Brady other than mental make up (and cheating but) anyway I'd rather Watson with the pedestrian to solid skill set and great intangibles. 

Trubisky I don't even see how that would be exceptable and Kizer would be ridiculous as you'd be drafting him for all the same reasons you drafted Hackenberg. 

[JustInFudge]

Just now, UnitedWhofans said:

JiF, as a thought, why do you think Deshaun Watson is not getting any love by the draftniks? His selections are all over the place

Not sure.  It's been one of the most confusing topics of the offseason.  I think draftniks are morons for the most part, so there's that.  But I really cant figure it out beyond there idicoy. Everyone points to the spread, lack of snaps under center, the picks, etc...but what's strange to me is these things werent an issue with some prospects but are with him for some reason.

 

[UnitedWhofans]

Just now, JiF said:

Not sure.  It's been one of the most confusing topics of the offseason.  I think draftniks are morons for the most part, so there's that.  But I really cant figure it out beyond there idicoy. Everyone points to the spread, lack of snaps under center, the picks, etc...but what's strange to me is these things werent an issue with some prospects but are with him for some reason.

 

I also really think that the "failure" of Tajh Boyd in the NFL might have something to do with it. He also played very well against SEC teams in bowl games. He beat LSU in the Peach Bowl/Chick Fil-A Bowl one year.

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, HessStation said:

As much as i disagree w you, at least Watson has all the mental make up you're looking for. And really what is Brady other than mental make up (and cheating but) anyway I'd rather Watson with the pedestrian to solid skill set and great intangibles. 

Trubisky I don't even see how that would be exceptable and Kizer would be ridiculous as you'd be drafting him for all the same reasons you drafted Hackenberg. 

Watson's maturity level is through the roof.  This kids back ground and story is incredible.  The adversity he's battled in his life to come out the way he has is very impressive.  An early graduate and a huge contributor in the community.  He reminds of Warrick Dunn from that perspective.  Couple that with the leadership, the composure under pressure, the ability to live up and beyond the hype, the numbers, the big moments, the big games.  He checks every box.  

Curious though, what do you think is pedestrian about his skill set?

 

[sourceworx]

Just now, UnitedWhofans said:

JiF, as a thought, why do you think Deshaun Watson is not getting any love by the draftniks? His selections are all over the place

Because draftniks over-analyze EVERYTHING about prospects. They put emphasis on bullsh!t like hand size, 40 times, MPH, height, etc.

They ignore the only important thing to pay attention to (ie the prospect's performance in football games), and worry about nonsense.

Watson played against the best teams in college football, and shredded them. He played Bama's defense (the closest thing in college to an NFL defense), and lit them up. Twice.

I hate saying it because normally he's a f*cking moron , but JiF is right in this case. I don't see what's not to like about this kid. If he's there at #6, I take him without hesitation.

[greenwave81]

As much as i disagree w you, at least Watson has all the mental make up you're looking for. And really what is Brady other than mental make up (and cheating but) anyway I'd rather Watson with the pedestrian to solid skill set and great intangibles. 
Trubisky I don't even see how that would be exceptable and Kizer would be ridiculous as you'd be drafting him for all the same reasons you drafted Hackenberg. 

It's more than intangibles and skill set though...or more spread offense College QBs would successfully make the transition to the NFL.

The tricky part is figuring out who has the ability to adapt mentally to the NFL style systems...who can process information at light speed and make proper decisions is a big part of it and needs to be considered.

Hell, Geno had all the tools and was an excellent spread QB ( as we're so many others that failed for that matter). But Geno struggled with the mental aspects of the NFL game...was it purely bad coaching (possibly) or was it an inherent inability to adapt on Genos part?

IMO, that's the tricky part of selecting a QB. Wonder what Mac thinks of Watsons mental makeup? It's obvious he considered Hacks past experience in an NFL system quite important as he's mentioned it on many occasions.

[Savage69]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

You're not alone and I find it amusing.  I dont see what's not to like.

The reality is, you dont know and neither do I but the idea of passing on him is just out right crazy to me.  Jared Goff and Carson Wentz went #1 and #2 but Watson isnt worth #6?

Bizarre.  To say the least. 

 

I just checked who had Geno going high in the 1st rd in 2013..Kiper had him going to the Eagles the 4th pick in the first rd.. Some others had him in the top 5 some even the 2nd player picked.. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610053-2013-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-final-7-round-predictions

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

I also really think that the "failure" of Tajh Boyd in the NFL might have something to do with it. He also played very well against SEC teams in bowl games. He beat LSU in the Peach Bowl/Chick Fil-A Bowl one year.

Well, that's just stupid.  One persons success or failure coming out of a particular program should have zero impact on your evaluation of another player coming out of the same program.

EJ Manuel and Christian Ponder being terrible in the NFL had no impact on Jameis Winston being selected #1 overall.  

[UnitedWhofans]

Just now, Savage69 said:

I just checked who had Geno going high in the 1st rd in 2013..Kiper had him going to the Eagles the 4th pick in the first rd.. Some others had him in the top 5 some even the 2nd player picked.. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1610053-2013-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-final-7-round-predictions

He was once projected going to number 1 overall. 

[UnitedWhofans]

Just now, JiF said:

Well, that's just stupid.  One persons success or failure coming out of a particular program should have zero impact on your evaluation of another player coming out of the same program.

EJ Manuel and Christian Ponder being terrible in the NFL had no impact on Jameis Winston being selected #1 overall.  

It is stupid, but it exists. The ol' USC QBs/Penn State RBs angle

[Savage69]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

He was once projected going to number 1 overall. 

Number 1 overall would be high in the 1st rd..

[HessStation]

9 minutes ago, JiF said:

Watson's maturity level is through the roof.  This kids back ground and story is incredible.  The adversity he's battled in his life to come out the way he has is very impressive.  An early graduate and a huge contributor in the community.  He reminds of Warrick Dunn from that perspective.  Couple that with the leadership, the composure under pressure, the ability to live up and beyond the hype, the numbers, the big moments, the big games.  He checks every box.  

Curious though, what do you think is pedestrian about his skill set?

 

His arm, his size, his awareness, his speed.