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Grade the Pick @6: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech


Sarge4Tide
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Patrick Mahomes?  

159 members have voted

  1. 1. If the Jets selected Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes with the 6th pick, I would give it a grade of.....

    • A+
      32
    • A
      2
    • A-
      4
    • B+
      4
    • B
      4
    • B-
      3
    • C+
      3
    • C
      8
    • C-
      8
    • D+
      3
    • D
      9
    • D-
      3
    • F+
      3
    • F
      18
    • F-
      55


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30 minutes ago, Obrien2Toon said:

So most likely it would be

Watson/ Minkah + 2’s

Darnold/ Adams

Could have been Watson, Nelson, Braden Smith and Dallas Goedtert who went with our original picks.  Or could be guys like Mcglinchey, James Daniels, & Anthony Miller who went 2 to 3 picks after our original slots.  Plus we would still have what will likey be about the 35th pick next season.

For the record, I did not like either Watson or Mahomes.  Really wnated Mike WIlliams or OJ Howard with that 6 pick.

Although, if Darnold turns out to be a better QB than Watson, we will likely be better off in the long run.  Assuming we have a GM that can build around Sam and a coaching staff capable of developing him. 

But these are the Jets, so...

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7 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

It really depends. You can also look at it as, who would you want, Watson or Adams and Darnold. 

Also, folks are talking about wanting the Texans-version of Watson. What happens every time we get a QB? Just look at the conversations we're having in different threads right now. The rhetoric is "Darnold doesnt have the players around him". It probably would have been the same situation with Watson, and folks who either liked Adams or Mahomes would have been calling him a bust while others would have been defending him talking about the lack of help around him. 

Watson to Hopkins or Fuller isnt the same as Watson to Anderson or Enunwa. 

 

It's the same thing with Mahomes. Mahomes is a legit MVP candidate, he sure as hell wouldn't be (at this stage) if he was a Jet. 

There are other variables at play here. 

Yes, BUT is Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson type of offensive players now being looked at by the FO because the QB position is fixed/so they would think, and would those type of players want to come here with Watson, or Mahomes over a IDK yet 1st round QB?  This is why you can no longer compare, IF the Jets drafted Mahomes, or Watson every single thing they would have done from that day till now would have been completely different.

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Also it’s very obvious the Jets ignored the QB position in 2017 because both Bowles, and Macc knew that started their clocks on their jobs, and they were able to convince the ownership to wait a year on the early 1st round QB.  Jets would have had a new HC to start 2018 after it was obvious Bowles is not able to develop a young QB mostly because of his inability to adjust to modern day offensive forward thinking, and Macc would already be 1 year deep into his HC hire, and that much closer to no job, but I still think it was mostly Bowles who said no no no I don’t want a rookie QB, and ultimately won out because of Hack getting stupidly picked in the 2nd round the year before.

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36 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Yes, BUT is Sammy Watkins, Allen Robinson type of offensive players now being looked at by the FO because the QB position is fixed/so they would think, and would those type of players want to come here with Watson, or Mahomes over a IDK yet 1st round QB?  This is why you can no longer compare, IF the Jets drafted Mahomes, or Watson every single thing they would have done from that day till now would have been completely different.

Maybe. Remember, KC traded up to #10 to get Mahomes. Say the Jets drafted Mahomes @ 6, KC could have traded up to #10 and drafted Watson who's still on the board. 

Point being, I think Watson in KC wouldnt be as far off as they are in terms of a devastating offense, which would have gotten the attention of other offensive skillset players because remember, Mahomes is making a name for himself THIS year. He was on the bench last year. So many of these players probably went to KC off of the strength of the coach, Andy Reid who has a history of running a high octane offense, no matter where he's coached....and more importantly, not matter the quarterback. 

Then you look at the Jets, and they drafted Mahomes. Mahomes probably starts immediately, but this is 2017...and Enunwa just injured his neck, two rookie WR's are drafted, but they're not much...and sometime in the season Macc trades for Kearse. 

There's a better chance that KC with Watson would be similar to where they are today with Mahomes, and there's a good chance that the Jets with Mahomes would be similar to where they are today with Darnold. 

And with that said. If you put Darnold on KC right now, he'd be a completely different QB right now. He'd be a successful one. 

 

Folks are giving WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much credit to the QB. They deserve alot of credit. But great coaches like Reid are an important part of the success of a football team. A guy like Jeff Fischer would tank this KC team. 

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8 hours ago, JiF said:

The purely statistical stuff isnt subjective (except I dont fully get how you can compare a 4 year starters stats to a 2 year starter but whatevs) but when they factor in competition and teammates in the way they do, it is 100% is subjective.

For example, they knock Mayfield for having NFL talent all around him but Mason Rudolph who put up similar numbers, doesnt get a boost for not having NFL talent all around him. 

Then you look at Watson.  Played the toughest schedule out of any prospect, doesnt get a boost for it.  Then they knock him for having NFL talent (while recognizing they're not that good), and go figure, all those dudes suck yet he's gets knocked for having "NFL talent".

They also use the Air Raid as a knock on Mahomes and Goff, yet, rate them the highest those years. 

That stuff is subjective and totally hokey but it's cool if you dig it.  

I don't think you understand the difference between the formula and the write ups. The formula is the formula, it adjusts everyone the same for all factors including teammates and SOS by some objective measure (for teammates I think it's projected draft position of teammates) I linked the original methodology below, it's since been tweaked to perform better. 

The write up is where the author points out things that impacted the rating the formula ultimatly spit out based on what they found. This can potentially be subjective as to what the author does or doesn't include but what they include has 0 impact on what the formula rated the player.

The air raid stuff in the write up was a word of caution that up till then Qbase was seemingly over valuing Air Raid QB's, meaning, the formula seems to overly favor the pass happy systems and they weren't that confident in the results. However, considering that in 2018, Goff and Mahommes are 2 of the top 3 QB's (with Brees), I imagine they won't issue a similiar warning in the future and should be pretty happy that they called Mahommes and Goff as the best QB of their class.

You can think it's silly or whatever but thinking it's subjective is just wrong.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/introducing-qbase

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2 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Maybe. Remember, KC traded up to #10 to get Mahomes. Say the Jets drafted Mahomes @ 6, KC could have traded up to #10 and drafted Watson who's still on the board. 

Point being, I think Watson in KC wouldnt be as far off as they are in terms of a devastating offense, which would have gotten the attention of other offensive skillset players because remember, Mahomes is making a name for himself THIS year. He was on the bench last year. So many of these players probably went to KC off of the strength of the coach, Andy Reid who has a history of running a high octane offense, no matter where he's coached....and more importantly, not matter the quarterback. 

Then you look at the Jets, and they drafted Mahomes. Mahomes probably starts immediately, but this is 2017...and Enunwa just injured his neck, two rookie WR's are drafted, but they're not much...and sometime in the season Macc trades for Kearse. 

There's a better chance that KC with Watson would be similar to where they are today with Mahomes, and there's a good chance that the Jets with Mahomes would be similar to where they are today with Darnold. 

And with that said. If you put Darnold on KC right now, he'd be a completely different QB right now. He'd be a successful one. 

 

Folks are giving WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too much credit to the QB. They deserve alot of credit. But great coaches like Reid are an important part of the success of a football team. A guy like Jeff Fischer would tank this KC team. 

Just because you put 1000 words in a post doesn’t make your off point ranting, and spinning correct, IF the Jets drafted a QB any QB at 6 in 2017, everything they did from that point on would have been different so to say this person wouldn’t be good without this, this, and this is just nonsense.

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4 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Just because you put 1000 words in a post doesn’t make your off point ranting, and spinning correct, IF the Jets drafted a QB any QB at 6 in 2017, everything they did from that point on would have been different so to say this person wouldn’t be good without this, this, and this is just nonsense.

And one thing that wouldn’t changed if he was a Jet is Andy Reid not being there and that’s a big difference.

Patrick Mahomes said the biggest part of his development last year was Andy Reid showing him how to read NFL defenses well and showing him how everything needs to be done from the QB position.

Todd Bowles would be showing him how to play Moneybacker on 3rd down.

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11 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Just because you put 1000 words in a post doesn’t make your off point ranting, and spinning correct, IF the Jets drafted a QB any QB at 6 in 2017, everything they did from that point on would have been different so to say this person wouldn’t be good without this, this, and this is just nonsense.

The Jets drafted Darnold at #3 and we f'ing stink, because there's more to a team than drafting a QB high.

That's less than 1,000 words. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Villain The Foe said:

The Jets drafted Darnold at #3 and we f'ing stink, because there's more to a team than drafting a QB high.

That's less than 1,000 words. 

 

 

That’s what mccagnan doesn’t get.  Observe the good teams who take qbs - they’re always taking OL/RB/TE/WR to help him.  The jets - we take DT Sheppard in the 3rd.  Mccagnan thinks of the draft too theoretically, to him, the pure scout, it’s about taking guys ahead of where he has them ranked.  To the good gms, the draft is about building units and building strengths to give them an edge.  The only wildcard is, how much say did bowles ever have to push the owners for defensive players?  Even if bowles did have sway, a good gm would have overruled it.

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2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

That’s what mccagnan doesn’t get.  Observe the good teams who take qbs - they’re always taking OL/RB/TE/WR to help him.  The jets - we take DT Sheppard in the 3rd.  Mccagnan thinks of the draft too theoretically, to him, the pure scout, it’s about taking guys ahead of where he has them ranked.  To the good gms, the draft is about building units and building strengths to give them an edge.  The only wildcard is, how much say did bowles ever have to push the owners for defensive players?  Even if bowles did have sway, a good gm would have overruled it.

Exactly. 

we can look in our own backyard for proof of this. In 2009 we drafted Mark Sanchez. Sanchez had the typical bad rookie season throwing for less than 3,000 yards, just 12 TD's and 20 Int's, yet in that same year the Jets went to the AFCCG on a 9-7 record. Why? 
 

Because D'Brick and Mangold were both in their prime and were given quality veteran teammates like Damien Woody and Alan Faneca. The Jets had a top 5 Oline in the league. 

Sanchez had LEGIT running game in Thomas Jones who rushed for over 1,400 yards and 14 TD's. When's the last time the Jets had a RB that either rushed for 1,400 yards or scored 14 TD's....let alone doing both in the same season? 

Jones was 3rd in the league in rushing, only behind Chris Johnson's 2000 yard season and Stephen Jackson's 1,412 season which Jones was outside of 2nd place by just 14 yards. 
Jones was also 3rd in rushing TD's behind Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones Drew. 

The Jets had the #1 defense in the league, and this was also the year of "Revis Island". 

 

So, a sh*tty rookie ultimately has a team around him that is good enough to go to the AFCCG, which to be fair. Sanchez stepped up in the playoffs. 

 

The same thing in 2010, but this time the Jets go 11-5, have the 4th best rushing offense in the league with Ladanian Tomlinson, Sanchez finally throws more TD's than INT's and the Jets defense is 4th in the league. 

The Jets are the 6th seed in the AFC but has a better record than both higher seeded Colts team headed by Peyton Manning and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets get back to the AFCCG with a 2nd year QB for the 2nd consecutive year while betting both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning to do so. 


Year 3 comes around, and I hope @Lupz27 see's the point here. 

This is Mark Sanchez "best year of his career". In 2011, Sanchez completed the most passes, threw the most TD's, had his highest completion rate (for an entire season), and was officially the focal point of the offense. But the Jets go 8-8 and havent been to the playoffs ever since. Here's why. 

The Jets go from having Thomas Jones or Ladanian Tomlinson and having a top 3-to-top 5 rushing attack to now having Shonn Greene and being outside of the top 10. Faneca left after 2009and Damian Woody in 2010 which means that The Oline in 2011  is D'Brick, Mangold paired with Wayne Hunter, Matt Slauson and a declining Brandon Moore who was out of the league, retired after 2012. The Jets no longer have a top 3 offensive line. 

The Defense, falls off a cliff. The Jets go from the #1 defense in 2009 in terms of points allowed, to 20th on that list in 2011. 

 

The Jets have their worst season, yet it was Mark Sanchez best statistical year. 

Now relate that with what we're seeing with guys like Mahomes and Watson. Mahomes doesnt have a defense, but he has the most potent offense in the league, and the only rivals are the Saints and Rams. Watson has a defense, but in paticular a nasty front 7, which is arguably the best in the league....and he has Deandre Hopkins on offense, arguably the best WR in the league. I watch Watson play, and when he's in trouble the dude be throwing up some prayers, and guess what? When you have DeAndre Hopkins, you can do that. 

Look at the rookies this year. Darnold, Rosen and Allen have nothing on their side, yet Mayfield is on a Browns team that in all actuality hit it out of the park with this draft class because the guys who are producing for them are Denzel Ward, Antonio Callaway, Nick Chubb (Top 3 RB in the league) and of course 6. So Baker is on a winning streak because he has some assistance. Lamar Jackson is also on a winning streak. He has the #1 defense in the league, so it's covered up his shortcomings for sure. 

It's clear as day that making the argument that "just drafting a QB high will suddenly change everything" is ridiculous. You need a team. Why is Andrew Luck and the Colts having one of their better seasons? Because they established an offensive line and a running game. There are way too many examples in the league RIGHT NOW for people to continue to make these false points. 

Hey Lupz, I know...this explanation was probably 1,000 words. 

 

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  • 3 years later...
5 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

This thread warms my heart.

@Lupz27 was the easy MVP of this thread.  I'm guessing it was his finest hour on JN (I would think it would be for anybody).

I'm pretty sure I remember wanting us to draft Mahomes because I liked that he had a huge arm.  It doesn't show in this thread but I'd like to see the draft thread from that year.  Despite that, I also remember thinking that Jamal Adams was "the right pick" - lol.

I definitely remember NOT wanting us to draft Deshaun Watson due to his weak arm (something about "no QB has ever succeeded throwing at X MPH").

These threads are hilarious though.  Goes to show how little we all know.  We (other than SpermEdwards) make such strong statements and then turn out to be way off.

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On 3/29/2017 at 10:32 AM, dbatesman said:

With the sixth overall pick? My grade would be "fire Maccagnan on the spot."

 

On 3/29/2017 at 3:48 PM, #27TheDominator said:

To be fair, I don't think it is any bigger reach than Hackenberg in the 2nd.  Not sure it could be survived though. 

Great Double bump Thread just fantastic. I give you the 2 greatest posts in JN history.

So I went back and read all the idiotic posts, then I made sure I didn't say anything too damning that would hurt my fabulous reputation as a QB guru on Jet Nation and with that being said I can safely call all of you a pack of buffoons less a few who took some wild ass guesses . Have fun !

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10 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

 

Great Double bump Thread just fantastic. I give you the 2 greatest posts in JN history.

So I went back and read all the idiotic posts, then I made sure I didn't say anything too damning that would hurt my fabulous reputation as a QB guru on Jet Nation and with that being said I can safely call all of you a pack of buffoons less a few who took some wild ass guesses . Have fun !

Wild ass guesses?  Pfft.

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On 3/29/2017 at 11:30 AM, Warfish said:

F-

Way too high.  

Bottom of 1st round (picks like 30'ish) or top of 2nd round, great.

Not at #6.

Going with this pick at #6, after vastly overreaching on Hack in the 2nd last year?  Wow.

I have no real embarrassment over this take.

Mahomes has turned out to be a true stud, on a stacked KC team.  But he was not considered a sure thing in that moment, the pick was in fact considered widely as a reach at the time, and I don't think on OUR team, with OUR coaches at that time, after already reaching with a 2nd for Hack the year before, that he would have had nearly the success he's had with KC.  The Jets needed as close to a sure-thing as possible, few folks thought of Mahomes as a sure-thing in that moment.

Plus this take can't be taken in a vacuum, I advocated hard for Deshaun Watson this draft, and against Jamal Adams.  While being pro-Watson is now embarrassing for off-field reasons, he was absolutely a solid pick preference, he's a top 5-6 NFL QB (or was).  Of course, he'd probably been poop for us too, given how poop we really were than.

But Necros like this always fail to recall what the reality was IN THE MOMENT when the pick was made.  

As they say, hindsight is 20/20, and homerism will presume a guy would be just as good with us as he turned out to be with whomever actually drafted him, which isn't true.

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I have no doubt that we would have ruined Mahomes. He would not be the same QB he is today if we drafted him.

KC = great weapons, got to sit for a year, one of the most gifted offensive minds in football at HC.

NYJ = no weapons, we would have started him Year 1, he would have been playing for a poor coach.

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1 minute ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Give Andy Reid credit. He saw the talent, took the risk and developed the superstar.

I think Mahomes has wildly exceeded even the most bullish of expectations and I very much viewed him as a project the Jets would mess up.

Of course, I wanted Watson.

I think Mahomes will have an Aaron Rodgers type career.  Great player but got the 1 Super Bowl early and then that was it.

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8 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Give Andy Reid credit. He saw the talent, took the risk and developed the superstar.

I think Mahomes has wildly exceeded even the most bullish of expectations and I very much viewed him as a project the Jets would mess up.

Of course, I wanted Watson.

That's why Andy will be in the HOF one day as a coach, and I'm some moron in Texas chatting for 15 years about the Jets losing.

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29 minutes ago, Coffee Is Great said:

I have no doubt that we would have ruined Mahomes. He would not be the same QB he is today if we drafted him.

KC = great weapons, got to sit for a year, one of the most gifted offensive minds in football at HC.

NYJ = no weapons, we would have started him Year 1, he would have been playing for a poor coach.

Right, and as the greatest KC QB ever, Sam Darnold, looks to lead them to their 4th straight SB title this year...

jesus GIF The Bold And The Beautiful Welcome To Bizarro World GIF by CBS

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On 3/30/2017 at 11:04 AM, ChuckkieB said:

I might just set myself on fire if Mahomes was picked at #6. The Jets are obviously desperate for a QB, but this would be a bad reach. Plenty of other impact players would be on the board and tough to pass on for Mahomes.

Thoughts?

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