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Grade the Pick @6: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech

Sarge4Tide

By Sarge4Tide,
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Patrick Mahomes?  

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  1. 1. If the Jets selected Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes with the 6th pick, I would give it a grade of.....

    • A+
      32
    • A
      2
    • A-
      4
    • B+
      4
    • B
      4
    • B-
      3
    • C+
      3
    • C
      8
    • C-
      8
    • D+
      3
    • D
      9
    • D-
      3
    • F+
      3
    • F
      18
    • F-
      55

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CanadaSteve

CanadaSteve

Posted
Posted
On 3/29/2017 at 11:44 AM, CanadaSteve said:

I wanted to give it a FFF rating, but there was only a F-.

I would quit on this team if they drafted a fringe 2nd round QB PROSPECT, the key word being PROSPECT, with the #6 overall.  It would eclipse Vernon Gholsten in legend 50 years from now.

 

I'm glad everyone is finding a post from five years ago and laughing about it.  I was ABSOLUTELY wrong about Patrick Mahomes, as was a lot of people.  Care to share your inconsistencies and miscalculations?

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dbatesman
dbatesman

With the sixth overall pick? My grade would be "fire Maccagnan on the spot."

Fibonacci
Fibonacci

He is the only QB I want from this year's class. I gave A- . I know I will be killed though.

Warfish
Warfish

F- Way too high.   Bottom of 1st round (picks like 30'ish) or top of 2nd round, great. Not at #6. Going with this pick at #6, after vastly overreaching on Hack in the 2nd last year

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Hal N of Provo

Hal N of Provo

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

I have no real embarrassment over this take.

Mahomes has turned out to be a true stud, on a stacked KC team.  But he was not considered a sure thing in that moment, the pick was in fact considered widely as a reach at the time, and I don't think on OUR team, with OUR coaches at that time, after already reaching with a 2nd for Hack the year before, that he would have had nearly the success he's had with KC.  The Jets needed as close to a sure-thing as possible, few folks thought of Mahomes as a sure-thing in that moment.

Plus this take can't be taken in a vacuum, I advocated hard for Deshaun Watson this draft, and against Jamal Adams.  While being pro-Watson is now embarrassing for off-field reasons, he was absolutely a solid pick preference, he's a top 5-6 NFL QB (or was).  Of course, he'd probably been poop for us too, given how poop we really were than.

But Necros like this always fail to recall what the reality was IN THE MOMENT when the pick was made.  

As they say, hindsight is 20/20, and homerism will presume a guy would be just as good with us as he turned out to be with whomever actually drafted him, which isn't true.

None of the takes are embarrassing.  It’s a probability game and nobody knows with QBs.  Interesting to see.  I went through old QB media prognosticators last season and Sims was the only decent track record I saw.  


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except with Zach, future HoF QB of course. That’s different.  

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Joe Willie White Shoes

Joe Willie White Shoes

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9 minutes ago, Hal N of Provo said:

None of the takes are embarrassing.  It’s a probability game and nobody knows with QBs.  Interesting to see.  I went through old QB media prognosticators last season and Sims was the only decent track record I saw.  


This just proves that the armchair internet GMs on JN do not know more than the pros.  And that the draft is a crapshoot.  And that anyone who says they know how a college player will translate to the NFL is full of it. And that you keep drafting a QB early until you get it right.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except with Zach, future HoF QB of course. That’s different.  

 

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TuscanyTile2

TuscanyTile2

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2 hours ago, Joe W. Namath said:

Some real Jet Nation geniuses in this thread.  HAHHAAHAHAHAHAHA

This thread is gold.  It really shows how little almost all of us know, yet it doesn't stop us from having very strong opinions!  I'm definitely not excluding myself from that, btw.  lol

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bitonti

bitonti

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Posted

obligatory victory parade post 

"B+ on Balls"

 

 

the Week of the draft: 

Quote

In my heart of hearts, I want the Jets to be brave and take QB Patrick Mahomes II at 6 overall. 

But it's too much to predict such a glorious outcome. 

Mac isn't going to be brave and he isn't going to get fired while Woodrow is in the United Kingdom. 

He's going to draft purely by his board and heaven help us if his best available player is a 300 pound defensive end

 

Two days after the draft

Quote

Serious question

What did you want the Jets to do at QB this off season?

Quote

Not sign such an obvious bum like Josh McCown. There were other options, grow balls maybe and take Mahomes or Watson at 6.

Jamal Adams is a dope player but a safety's not saving this franchise

 

 

reading those posts from 2017 there was this idea that the team had to build around the QB spot and then draft a QB when they were ready for the SB window. 

There was also this idea that mediocre was worse than terrible, that only getting to the top of the draft would this team find a savior. 

but when that philosophy fell through and everyone got fired, it became, get the QB (Darnold) at all costs, even if he has nothing around him. QBIE. 

then all those Darnold guys got fired. Now it's like both... get the QB (Wilson) at all costs and give him the most expensive O line in the NFL and build a new defense too. 

of the three philosophies, where we are now (actually trying on all fronts) is probably going to lead to the best outcome.  

They aren't always going to win but they can't win at all if they don't try. Trying means maxing out the salary cap, which they did (finally). Not being 79 million under it for next year or the year after. 

 

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TuscanyTile2

TuscanyTile2

Posted
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12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

obligatory victory parade post 

"B+ on Balls"

 

 

the Week of the draft: 

Two days after the draft

 

This all falls under positive vibes, if a bit braggy 

 

I get to brag too!!!   (Though not too much because I was convinced Deshaun Watson would be a bust.  Plus I've been wrong on many QBs.)

 

 

 

 

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slimjasi

slimjasi

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bitonti said:

obligatory victory parade post 

"B+ on Balls"

 

 

the Week of the draft: 

Two days after the draft

 

reading those posts from 2017 there was this idea that the team had to build around the QB spot and then draft a QB when they were ready for the SB window. 

There was also this idea that mediocre was worse than terrible, that only getting to the top of the draft would this team find a savior. 

but when that philosophy fell through and everyone got fired, it became, get the QB (Darnold) at all costs, even if he has nothing around him. QBIE. 

then all those Darnold guys got fired. Now it's like both... get the QB (Wilson) at all costs and give him the most expensive O line in the NFL and build a new defense too. 

of the three philosophies, where we are now (actually trying on all fronts) is probably going to lead to the best outcome.  

They aren't always going to win but they can't win at all if they don't try. Trying means maxing out the salary cap, which they did (finally). Not being 79 million under it for next year or the year after. 

 

The Jets might fail miserably, but they are definitely going for it. 

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jgb

jgb

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, bitonti said:

obligatory victory parade post 

"B+ on Balls"

 

 

the Week of the draft: 

Two days after the draft

 

reading those posts from 2017 there was this idea that the team had to build around the QB spot and then draft a QB when they were ready for the SB window. 

There was also this idea that mediocre was worse than terrible, that only getting to the top of the draft would this team find a savior. 

but when that philosophy fell through and everyone got fired, it became, get the QB (Darnold) at all costs, even if he has nothing around him. QBIE. 

then all those Darnold guys got fired. Now it's like both... get the QB (Wilson) at all costs and give him the most expensive O line in the NFL and build a new defense too. 

of the three philosophies, where we are now (actually trying on all fronts) is probably going to lead to the best outcome.  

They aren't always going to win but they can't win at all if they don't try. Trying means maxing out the salary cap, which they did (finally). Not being 79 million under it for next year or the year after. 

 

You can’t “wait for X before you get Y,” because you may never hit on X.

Improve the team as the pieces become obtainable. 

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#27TheDominator

#27TheDominator

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

I get to brag too!!!   (Though not too much because I was convinced Deshaun Watson would be a bust.  Plus I've been wrong on many QBs.)

 

 

 

 

Trade down to where?  Everybody would have been happy with him at the end of the first or early 2nd.  I am probably on record there for that and I am pretty much the butt of this joke.  He went at 10.  If we traded down we missed him. 

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Warfish

Warfish

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1 hour ago, CanadaSteve said:

I suppose you were the ONLY person suggesting we draft him, right.  AMAZING how you are not an NFL GM yet, Kevin!

Best of luck finding a pre-draft post from him suggesting anything in re: Mahomes.  He was a non-entity on that question.

Regardless, let him laugh.  As has been noted several times since back then, I (and most draft evaluators) missed on Mahomes a little bit.  He was clearly worth his slot in the situation he went into, great O-Coach, stacked talent around him.  

But I remain unembarrassed by my views of the time (not just this one post).  Mahomes would have been considered a reach at that moment, and we'd just reached on Hack, who at that point was already looking busty, and there were less reachey options available at #6 (like my guy Watson, which now feels gross to say out loud, lol).  I'm not sad I preferred Watson in that draft, he'd have been (sexual assault aside) a better option for our worse roster/coaching.

But no question I missed on Mahomes (and on Allen too).  I miss as often as anyone on projections.  And I always tend to shy away from riskier picks at QB with our Jets.  We can't even make the less risky guys work out.  What would Mahomes or Allen look like here with us.  I shudder to think.

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TuscanyTile2

TuscanyTile2

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30 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Trade down to where?  Everybody would have been happy with him at the end of the first or early 2nd.  I am probably on record there for that and I am pretty much the butt of this joke.  He went at 10.  If we traded down we missed him. 

7, 8 or 9.

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slimjasi

slimjasi

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10 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Best of luck finding a pre-draft post from him suggesting anything in re: Mahomes.  He was a non-entity on that question.

Regardless, let him laugh.  As has been noted several times since back then, I (and most draft evaluators) missed on Mahomes a little bit.  He was clearly worth his slot in the situation he went into, great O-Coach, stacked talent around him.  

But I remain unembarrassed by my views of the time (not just this one post).  Mahomes would have been considered a reach at that moment, and we'd just reached on Hack, who at that point was already looking busty, and there were less reachey options available at #6 (like my guy Watson, which now feels gross to say out loud, lol).  I'm not sad I preferred Watson in that draft, he'd have been (sexual assault aside) a better option for our worse roster/coaching.

But no question I missed on Mahomes (and on Allen too).  I miss as often as anyone on projections.  And I always tend to shy away from riskier picks at QB with out Jets.  We can't even make the less risky guys work out.  What would Mahomes or Allen look like here with us.  I shudder to think.

As I have said many times, the real mistakes were: 1) Reaching for Hack (who us PSU fans feared was a bust on draft night) the year before and 2) overvaluing the upcoming 2018 QB class, because in combination, these mistakes essentially took us out of the 2017 QB sweepstakes. I don't believe we ever even seriously considered taking a QB in 2017 and THAT was the unforgiveable mistake, IMO. 

It's always possible to miss on a QB. Most GMs routinely do. 

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Warfish

Warfish

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Just now, slimjasi said:

As I have said many times, the real mistakes were: 1) Reaching for Hack (who us PSU fans feared was a bust on draft night) the year before and 2) overvaluing the upcoming 2018 QB class, because in combination, these mistakes essentially took us out of the 2017 QB sweepstakes. I don't believe we ever even seriously considered taking a QB in 2017 and THAT was the unforgiveable mistake, IMO. 

It's always possible to miss on a QB. Most GMs routinely do. 

You're 100% right.  I don't think our GM ever considered QB that year at all.  Hack and Sam, what a horrible 1-2 punch.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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Posted
3 hours ago, Coffee Is Great said:

I have no doubt that we would have ruined Mahomes. He would not be the same QB he is today if we drafted him.

Which is it?  We'd have "ruined him" or "he would not be the same QB he is today"?  Because these sounds like 2 different takes.

I agree he wouldn't be the same QB he is with Andy Reid, arguably the best offensive mind of this generation.  But that can be true, AND I still believe he'd have the skillset to be a top 5 QB in the league anywhere he landed. 

QB's aren't purely little balls of clay that get shaped into masterpieces or failures depending on where they land.  Mahomes clearly has a skillset that would have made him a successful QB, even if he perhaps wouldn't have had a SB win, an MVP or 50+ TD season outside of KC.  

He'd have been a great pick, but one that Macc never in a million years would have had the balls to make.  

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UntouchableCrew

UntouchableCrew

Posted
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1 hour ago, bitonti said:

obligatory victory parade post 

"B+ on Balls"

 

 

the Week of the draft: 

Two days after the draft

 

reading those posts from 2017 there was this idea that the team had to build around the QB spot and then draft a QB when they were ready for the SB window. 

There was also this idea that mediocre was worse than terrible, that only getting to the top of the draft would this team find a savior. 

but when that philosophy fell through and everyone got fired, it became, get the QB (Darnold) at all costs, even if he has nothing around him. QBIE. 

then all those Darnold guys got fired. Now it's like both... get the QB (Wilson) at all costs and give him the most expensive O line in the NFL and build a new defense too. 

of the three philosophies, where we are now (actually trying on all fronts) is probably going to lead to the best outcome.  

They aren't always going to win but they can't win at all if they don't try. Trying means maxing out the salary cap, which they did (finally). Not being 79 million under it for next year or the year after. 

 

I don't know if the "philosophy" fell through as much as the plan was poorly executed. Setting up your QB for success is important -- but you don't do that by drafting another interior DL or back to back safety's, or a 25 year old from Fort Hays State.

Maccagnan was just clueless.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

probably F

 

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Maybe, but I doubt it.  I will say that I've always lent credence to FO's QBASE model and they had Mahomes as the # 1-graded QB from that class:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/qbase-2017

 

I also know that I was on record as wanting either Watson or Mike Williams at 6 in that class.  Either of those picks would have been far superior to Jamal Adams, the criminal activity of Watson and Williams' "late bloomer" career notwithstanding. 

And I still disagree that Douglas working his magic to get two 1sts and a 3rd in any way makes that pick a "success" in hindsight.  

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