Who is your top choice at 6?

[Kleckineau]

2 minutes ago, kelly said:

he's signing with denver 

Pours ice water on it......

[kelly]

2 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

Pours ice water on it......

[HessStation]

If Bortles throws a dud in Pittsburgh he could be cut for $20MM savings. As good as Malik Jackson has been they are loaded on the DL and I believe he would be another $10MM in savings, if I'm reading their cap situation correctly....That's $30MM and Cousins to Jacksonville would interesting. Maybe not likely but a good one to throw into as a wildcard. Was listening to Boomer talk about it this morning so I looked it up to see if it was possible, and although they are cap strapped, I believe cutting Bortles and Jackson would give them the space. Although I didn't deep dive into future years it's probably feasible. 

[kelly]

4 minutes ago, HessStation said:

If Bortles throws a dud in Pittsburgh he could be cut for $20MM savings. As good as Malik Jackson has been they are loaded on the DL and I believe he would be another $10MM in savings, if I'm reading their cap situation correctly....That's $30MM and Cousins to Jacksonville would interesting. Maybe not likely but a good one to throw into as a wildcard. Was listening to Boomer talk about it this morning so I looked it up to see if it was possible, and although they are cap strapped, I believe cutting Bortles and Jackson would give them the space. Although I didn't deep dive into future years it's probably feasible. 

[HessStation]

25 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

So a bunch of people wanted the cheapest positions to fill via free agency: safety, TE, and RB. It is as imprudent today as it was then. This was precisely my point in the middle of this thread back in April, that the reason they are stupid picks is because those that don't draft these positions so highly can still fill them quite adequately well after #6 overall or via FA outright. 

Meanwhile we needed a FQB and a consistently disruptive pass rusher, and the only way to do that adequately via FA is praying for the rare event of one being available - and his desiring to come to the NYJ above all others - via FA. How many younger players capable of 15-sack seasons (or capable of it for more than one final season in their primes) hit free agency? Very, very few. You typically have to find them in the draft. The best LTs you usually get in FA are ones wrapping up their careers, or you overpay massively for the likes of Okung or cross fingers a player like Beachum can again become a top 30 tackle (which he isn't). 

The calculus I used was and is based on historical trends:

• in FA (and later in the drat) it's far easier to find, and far easier to fit, the following positions: SS, FS, RB, TE, G, C, RT, ILB, non-pass-rushing OLB.
• in FA and later in the draft, it's much harder to find, for even double the above positions' cost, the positions of: QB, edge rusher, LT, CB, or premiere-level WRs.

If no one in the latter group is available with our top pick, then trade up to get one or trade down to accumulate assets, and don't get caught up in BAP ratings made by people not charged with the task completing entire rosters. Otherwise you box yourself into decisions like assessing Darron Lee being more valuable at #20 than a later 1st round pick plus another 2nd or 3rd rounder (or even a trade like a 2nd rounder that year plus a 1st round pick a year later).

To do otherwise is taking the low-percentage approach to team success, which prays for the likes of Hackenberg, Petty, Fitz, McCown, etc. to become FQBs, and OLBs with 4.8 speed like Mauldin to become consistent QB-disrupters while we stock up on another king-sized DE with our top pick when we already had 3 of them still under rookie contracts.

You should have also added 34DE. Really good post. I had never really thought of what you're saying before but it's very true. If you don't draft an elite QB, WR, edgerusher, CB or LT you're basically never (or almost never) going to get one unless he's almost over the hill on last contract or there's some huge red flag. Every other position you can find better talent per positon in FA (or via trade) much easier. 

[kelly]

Just now, HessStation said:

You should have also added 34DE. Really good post. I had never really thought of what you're saying before but it's very true. If you don't draft an elite QB, WR, edgerush-OLB or LT you're basically never (or almost never) going to get one unless he's almost over the hill on last contract or there's some huge red flag. Every other position you can find better talent per positon in FA (or via trade) much easier. 

[HessStation]

Quick question, more annoying show that stopped being funny and should have ended after Season 4, Modern Family or Big Bang Theory? Too close for me to decide.

[kelly]

2 minutes ago, HessStation said:

Quick question, more annoying show that stopped being funny and should have ended after Season 4, Modern Family or Big Bang Theory? Too close for me to decide.

[HessStation]

Just now, kelly said:

I'd probably say Modern Family bc of the kids getting older and how many funny, bc we're gay, jokes can you tell.

[kelly]

Just now, HessStation said:

I'd probably say Modern Family bc of the kids getting older and how many funny, bc we're gay, jokes can you tell.

[HessStation]

3 minutes ago, kelly said:

You bring up a good point. How many funny, bc we're nerds, jokes can you tell. Maybe it's just a tie. 

[kelly]

2 minutes ago, HessStation said:

You bring up a good point. How many funny, bc we're nerds, jokes can you tell. Maybe it's just a tie. 

[HessStation]

13 hours ago, Freemanm said:

I'm not really into college football. What happened to Josh Allen? Why did he fall so far in mock drafts? I thought the Jets were high on this kid. Did he get arrested or something? Is this a good thing that he fell so far?

Never really imporved on his accuracy. 56% 28/15 Soph year to 56% and only 16/6 Jr year. Being from a small school he never really dominated his competition and his one big game against a power conf Iowa, although it was earlier in the season, he looked really bad, although his OL got destroyed. Also looked bad against Oregon and they got killed, only other big conf school. Also, the team only went 5-3 (8-5 overall) in a week conference. 

[JustInFudge]

35 minutes ago, HessStation said:

If Bortles throws a dud in Pittsburgh he could be cut for $20MM savings. As good as Malik Jackson has been they are loaded on the DL and I believe he would be another $10MM in savings, if I'm reading their cap situation correctly....That's $30MM and Cousins to Jacksonville would interesting. Maybe not likely but a good one to throw into as a wildcard. Was listening to Boomer talk about it this morning so I looked it up to see if it was possible, and although they are cap strapped, I believe cutting Bortles and Jackson would give them the space. Although I didn't deep dive into future years it's probably feasible. 

 

Not sure but I thought I heard on the radio that cutting Jackson would be like 6 or 7 mill in dead money too so I don't think it's a straight 10 mil savings.  They're going to be strapped though, Dareus and Campbell have monster contracts.  Bouye, Church and Gipson aren't cheap.  And soon you're going to have to pay Ngakoue and/or Fowler and Ramsey and Miles Jack and Allen Robinson or Marquise Lee. 

I highly doubt they can afford Cousins with those types of decisions coming very soon. 

[HessStation]

1 minute ago, JiF said:

 

Not sure but I thought I heard on the radio that cutting Jackson would be like 6 or 7 mill in dead money too so I don't think it's a straight 10 mil savings.  They're going to be strapped though, Dareus and Campbell have monster contracts.  Bouye, Church and Gipson aren't cheap.  And soon you're going to have to pay Ngakoue and/or Fowler and Ramsey and Miles Jack and Allen Robinson or Marquise Lee. 

I highly doubt they can afford Cousins with those types of decisions coming very soon. 

Yeah, I was thinking it'd be a long shot but peaked my interest as a wildcard after listening to Boomer so I looked it up. 

These sites are usually never completley right but here's where I got the info.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/jacksonville-jaguars/

 

I rounded up on Bortles 19MM and Jackson 9.5 if cut cap savings. So 28.5. 

But there's some dead money there on Jackson and I don't really ever fully understand cap management so could be wrong. Thought dead money was what they have to pay but not towards cap? Don't know. But anyway...

[SenorGato]

The best sleeper on Cousins might be Minnesota. Strong roster, nice enough place to live and raise a family, stable enough coaching staff....Outside of Barr they have most of their guys locked up already. 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

1 hour ago, HessStation said:

You should have also added 34DE. Really good post. I had never really thought of what you're saying before but it's very true. If you don't draft an elite QB, WR, edgerusher, CB or LT you're basically never (or almost never) going to get one unless he's almost over the hill on last contract or there's some huge red flag. Every other position you can find better talent per positon in FA (or via trade) much easier. 

LT more so than CB. I don't think an elite one is imperative; just a good-enough one. The thing is, very good (let alone great) ones don't usually hit free agency unless they're older (like when Oakland first picked up Penn at his age 32 season). Everyone else typically locks them up before their walk year, unless they already found a cheaper, adequate replacement.

It's also why, even though teams draft LTs with the #1 overall and top 5 picks, they aren't the #2 salaried position after QB. Locking them up a year earlier keeps that average salary down because they don't get to test FA (otherwise you'd see at least a few LTs making the $16-17m/year you see being thrown around now for FA corners). They're worth locking up early because there's less injury risk and their "lost a step" threshold is higher so they're productive for longer than CBs who need to keep up with 24 yr old WRs with 4.3 speed and sharp turning skills.

It's not that LTs are so expensive to find via FA; it's that they don't hit FA in the first place. You end up with Okung becoming just about the highest-priced LT in football even though no one thought of him in that tier after his rookie contract was over. For a team without a starting LT, it's either overpay for the production you get with Okung, take a chance on a lower-priced guy like Beachum and hope he's better than his last stint, or pay the piper in the draft and use your 1st round pick to get one. Or sign an older veteran to put off the decision for another year or two (Penn, Whitworth, etc.).

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

LT more so than CB. I don't think an elite one is imperative; just a good-enough one. The thing is, very good (let alone great) ones don't usually hit free agency unless they're older (like when Oakland first picked up Penn at his age 32 season). Everyone else typically locks them up before their walk year, unless they already found a cheaper, adequate replacement.

It's also why, even though teams draft LTs with the #1 overall and top 5 picks, they aren't the #2 salaried position after QB. Locking them up a year earlier keeps that average salary down because they don't get to test FA (otherwise you'd see at least a few LTs making the $16-17m/year you see being thrown around now for FA corners). 

It's not that LTs are so expensive to find via FA; it's that they don't hit FA in the first place. You end up with Okung becoming just about the highest-priced LT in football even though no one thought of him in that tier after his rookie contract was over. For a team without a starting LT, it's either overpay for the production you get with Okung, take a chance on a lower-priced guy like Beachum and hope he's better than his last stint, or pay the piper in the draft and use your 1st round pick to get one. Or sign an older veteran to put off the decision for another year or two (Penn, Whitworth, etc.).

So a poster recently sited Caldwell first 5 years as a means to say, let's give Maccaggnan a chance. But in reference to your point and more so your logic, the two GMs seem to be even more miles apart in competence. And here's why (and sorry to keep going back to just Caldwell but it's a good study, comparison and it's also fresh in my mind. If you not only just look at "drafted player" by development but by "drafted player" development AND by what round and position, if we are to follow your logic, Caldwell really seemed to have an overall plan as opposed to Maccaggnan, who is just drafting who they deem BPA with zero regard to how that fits into the overall scheme and position, almost as if there is no plan, "we'll make it work" so to speak.

Caldwell's First Round By Position 

Year 1: LT

Year 2: QB...also takes two WRs in the second, finds a Pro Bowl interior lineman in the 3rd and an All Pro LB in the 5th

Year 3: OLB/edge rush...also finds solid RB in 2nd and very good starting interior lineman in the 3rd

Year 4: CB...also finds young, stud LB in the second round and a dominant pass rusher in the 3rd

Year 5: RB....also finds starting rookie LT in 2nd round

Maccaggnan's First Round By Position

Year 1: DE(34)...even though the two best players on the team already held that position (non-premium)...then missing on WR, OLB pass rush and QB in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds

Year 2: ILB....then missing on QB in the 2nd round. then taking non-edge rushing 34 OLB in the third

Year 3: SS...then saftey again before taking 2 WRs next

Notes:

Caldwell takes 4 out of 5 Premium Positions in the first round of his first 5 drafts...Maccaggnan takes 0 out 5 Premium Positions in the first round of his first 3 drafts

Caldwell seems to stratigically use the 3rd round for interior lineman which is usually a good place to find them and hits 2 for 2...Maccaggnan has used one pick on interior lineman in 3 years with Jarvis Harrison in the 5th round and misses

Caldwell finds two stud LBs (non pass rushing) in 2nd and 5th round. Maccaggnan wastes 1st round pick on LB (non pass rushing) and uses 3rd round on another non-passrushing LB

Caldwell takes passrushers in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounds in 5 years. Maccaggnan has tried once in the 3rd round in 3 years

Caldwell takes a LT in the 1st and 2nd rounds in 5 years. Maccaggnan has taken 1 OT (RT) in the 5th round in 3 years

Caldwell takes a QB in the 1st round and 5th. Maccaggnan has taken in the 2nd and 4th round 

Caldwell takes a CB in the 1s round. The earliest Maccaggnan has taken a CB is the 4th round and 2 in the 6th round

Caldwell takes 2 WRs in the 2nd round of his second draft. Hits on 1 starter and 1 pro bowler. Maccaggnan takes 1 WR in the 2nd round of his first draft and misses. Takes WRs in the 3rd and 4th round of his third draft...neither seem to be of pro bowl caliber however it's early

Both teams were really void of any talent anywhere on the roster when both GM's took over. To me, you can really see a difference in competence if you are to put any weight into rebuilding a team through your logic (Premium Positions) and looking at it as a multi year plan vs. just taking BPA and winging it.