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Jamal Adams, a Safety, IS how you build a team - Leader of Men.


Gas2No99

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3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Next year. Next year is a sure thing because every prospect entering that draft is a franchise QB.

Here's the kicker: as we get closer to the draft and it turns out there actually aren't 5 QBs worthy of top-10 picks, using our 1st rounder next year instead of last year may also cost our 2019's 1st rounder, and quite possibly more than that, if the "must have" QB we take doesn't fall to our natural draft slot.

Add all that to the cost of a QB-desperate team taking a SS with the 6th pick in the country, in a safety-rich draft at that. Because if there's a killer EDGE rusher in the top half of the draft, we're not touching him because now we have to go QB with our 1st pick.

All that other talent that's going to fall while teams are pushing themselves out of the way to draft QBs. Guess who's going to profit from that: Houston and KC (and other teams not in the market to draft a QB early).

Opportunity cost. 

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54 minutes ago, Anthony Jet said:

The draft is a crap shoot. Not a perfect science. I’m sure there were some guys that were all over Watson. And I’m sure those same guys were all over other guys that didn’t pan out but they usually leave those guys out of the conversation. IF Mac didn’t feel Watson was the guy then not picking him is the right thing to do to execute his plan.

Whether you or I agree with his plan is a total different subject 

but let’s not make it like he passed up Peyton Manning coming out to draft a safety

as far as passing on the safety, just like Lenorad Williams are they really the best player in the draft if they weren’t picked first or even top three? 

 

No one is acting like we passed up Manning.  And, my response is directly to the notion that others passing makes it okay, as we took a guy who others passed on as well.  A guy who isn't playing nearly up to the level as Watson at present.

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1 hour ago, UnitedWhofans said:

No because, to use my analogy, you did not know that the better wife could bring the goods or not.

You had a choice of a solid wife that you were pretty sure would be a good wife or a flashy wife that may be fantastic but also could cheat on you and ruin your life

Here is the analogy:  We sent Mike to the market with a cow to get some money.   Mike decided to take the magic beans instead.  The beans turned out be just a can of pork and beans.  Edible, but not what we could have had.

 

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Just now, Fantasy Island said:

Here is the analogy:  We sent Mike to the market with a cow to get some money.   Mike decided to take the magic beans instead.  The beans turned out be just a can of pork and beans.  Edible, but not what we could have had.

 

I would switch it. The QB is the can of magic beans, which could be a dud or fantastic. and the safety is the cow

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34 minutes ago, gEYno said:

No one is acting like we passed up Manning.  And, my response is directly to the notion that others passing makes it okay, as we took a guy who others passed on as well.  A guy who isn't playing nearly up to the level as Watson at present.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing 

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3 hours ago, RESNewYork said:

With hindsight Mac taking Watson over Adams was a mistake. So I get being angry or depressed because it would be great if we had a potential franchise QB on the roster. 

But shouldn' we just hope.now that Adams turns out to be one of the best safeties is the league. Isn' that the best case scenario now. It feels like fans want to knocK the player already after 8 games because he' not watson

The problem isn't just "oh well once upon a time we should have taken this prospect instead of that one" -- the problem is far deeper: he doesn't know what he's doing.

No matter how highly Adams was rated by some, he's still just a SS.  Adams might - might - potentially have that draft value only for a team that has all of its more core positions filled. Positions that you can't just scheme around as easily as SS: QB, edge rusher, CB1 in particular, and probably add LT, CB2, and a better WR corps in general. 

Those are the areas you can't just fill in free agency at will because teams don't let them go, and if they do it's only because they've been priced out of keeping them. For a team needing to fill multiple such holes, SS is an unnecessary luxury pick. 

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The problem isn't just "oh well once upon a time we should have taken this prospect instead of that one" -- the problem is far deeper: he doesn't know what he's doing.

No matter how highly Adams was rated by some, he's still just a SS.  Adams might - might - potentially have that draft value only for a team that has all of its more core positions filled. Positions that you can't just scheme around as easily as SS: QB, edge rusher, CB1 in particular, and probably add LT, CB2, and a better WR corps in general. 

Those are the areas you can't just fill in free agency at will because teams don't let them go, and if they do it's only because they've been priced out of keeping them. For a team needing to fill multiple such holes, SS is an unnecessary luxury pick. 

here's the reality:  mccags drafts out of fear, and bowles coaches out of fear.  mccags doesn't take risks with his first round picks, he'd rather take guys who have low bust potential than swing and miss on a qb like watson, which would all but cost him his job.  and bowles plays the oldest guys at every position unless there's an injury.  what does this mean?  it means the jets will take mike mcglinchey in the first round, a safe LT prospect, then take a cb in the early 2nd, followed by luke falk with the seahawks pick, who will watch mccown start 16 games next year.  some people swing for the fences, like tanny, while others are happy beating out a squibbler to first base.  

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I think there are GMs in the league - Maccagnan is one, but he's far from the only one - who get so caught up in a prospect's hype they pretty much they forget to ask themselves how much this player truly moves the needle enough for their respective teams if drafted. Or even if they kind of know, they don't know it enough to risk not taking the alleged “BPA” according to so-called experts who are so frequently wrong anyway. Their draft board is their draft board, and they rank prospects by grade. Sorry, but that's how a simpleton works.

Take our 2015 draft. Leo was supposed to be this great prospect coming out of school. If he became everything we hoped, which doesn't typically happen anyway, does a prospect like Leo really move the needle enough, over Mo and Sheldon still in their mid-20s, to warrant the 6th pick in the whole country? Of course not. Plus there was no guarantee he was going to be everything hoped (which is basically JJ Watt II), and you need him to be to even rationalize the pick. 

It's a logic issue, and he's using irrational emotion of “drafting the BPA” to solve it.

Rank your rostered players on a subjective scale from 1-10. Say we had only an 8 and a 9 in Mo/Sheldon (take your pick which gets which rank). Pretend Leo's a 10 at the same position (which he isn't). Then pretend someone like Beasley was only a 7-prospect as an edge rusher (i.e. say he's correspondingly lower than Mo/Sheldon at their respective positions). Our roster's edge rusher was then 35 year-old Calvin Pace and nobody else. As an edge rusher, Pace was closer to a 2-3 rank (if that, at his age), and anyway he’s only very temporarily that high at best. Then factor in the knowledge that long term edge rushers don't just present themselves in free agency upon demand, and that the team also has to consider a QB with its 1st round pick every year until it finds one, which lowers Pace's present plus near-future value to almost zero.

The incremental gain at 3-4 DE is minimal, even if Leo's great, and the incremental at EDGE rusher is tremendous, even if he's only just pretty good. That Macc can't do this calculation, or is ignorant to it when ranking prospects, is far more troubling than one mistake. It's a problem of philosophy, and his philosophy of blind BPA is dumb.

This is beyond a simple matter of drafting for pure need vs pure BPA. Pure need you get reaches well beyond the player's value (e.g. his own pick of Hackenberg, oddly enough), but Macc's pure BPA is so impractical it's really no wiser as a strategy.

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It's not like he's shown any obvious evidence of learning.

Right after drafting Lee in round 1 instead of trading up for Wentz (which would have instantly and neatly solved both his Fitz and Mo problems), the very next year he takes yet another non-premium position and passes up on yet another QB (actually two). And in between that, his big FA splash was an attempt to bring in yet another ILB by offering Hightower like $12m/year or whatever insane amount it was -- upwards of $20m more than NE, the next-highest bidder, offered.

And what's so disturbing is not just the obvious, that it's his freaking job to know better than to do this. It's that he's been in this business for long enough, and his mentor and biggest booster was Houston's GM, that he's surely seen these mistakes made many times over by many teams. Then when he's made the GM he goes ahead and immediately makes those same mistakes himself. It's a sign of someone who gets lost in his own obsession over theoretical prospect grades, and simply can't see the bigger picture.

A QB's career is 10-15 years long. Just looking at Wentz (never mind repeating the stupidity a year later with Watson, which only makes it worse) - if he truly loves a QB prospect and he's truly a consensus FQB prospect and you've got jack squat at the position and as a bonus a public/humiliating situation with a glorified backup in Fitz -- for him to worry about losing one more season's #1 pick - never mind an extra 2nd/3rd round pick in a QB's first season - is about the dumbest sh*t I can imagine.

At some point there's little conclusion to come to, other than the job is simply too big for him.

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1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think there are GMs in the league - Maccagnan is one, but he's far from the only one - who get so caught up in a prospect's hype they pretty much they forget to ask themselves how much this player truly moves the needle enough for their respective teams if drafted. Or even if they kind of know, they don't know it enough. Their draft board is their draft board, and they rank prospects by grade. Sorry, but that's how a simpleton works.

Take 2015's draft. Leo was supposed to be this great prospect coming out of school. If he became everything we hoped, which doesn't typically happen anyway, does a prospect like Leo really move the needle enough, over Mo and Sheldon still in their mid-20s, enough to warrant the 6th pick in the whole country? Of course not. Plus there was no guarantee he was going to be everything hoped (which is basically JJ Watt II), and you need him to be to even rationalize the pick. 

It's a logic issue, and he's using emotion to solve it.

Rank your rostered players on a subjective scale from 1-10. Say we had only an 8 and a 9 in Mo/Sheldon (take your pick which gets which rank). Pretend Leo's a 10 (which he isn't). Then pretend someone like Beasley was only a 7-prospect as an edge rusher (i.e. say he's correspondingly lower than Mo/Sheldon at their respective positions). Our roster's edge rusher was 35 year-old Calvin Pace and nobody else. As an edge rusher, Pace was closer to a 2-3, and only very temporarily that high at best. Then factor in the knowledge that long term edge rushers don't just present themselves in free agency upon demand, and that the team also has to consider a QB with its 1st round pick every year until it finds one, which lowers Pace's future value to almost zero. The incremental gain for 3-4 DE is minimal, even if Leo's great, and the incremental for EDGE rusher is tremendous, even if he's only just pretty good. That Macc can't do this calculation, or is ignorant to it when ranking prospects, is far more troubling than one mistake. It's a problem of philosophy, and his philosophy of blind BPA is dumb.

This is beyond a simple matter of drafting for pure need vs pure BPA. Pure need you get reaches well beyond the player's value (e.g. Hackenberg, oddly enough), but Macc's pure BPA is so impractical it's really no wiser as a strategy.

a scout wants to be right, they want to show the guy they banged the table for is a good player.  that's where mccags lives. look at lee, look at the progress he's making, look at maye, he's making plays.  he's not prioritizing positional value, heck, he's taken 2 offensive players with his first 6 top picks and neither can get on the field, so that shows you what he thinks of offense.  he drafts scared, bowles coaches scared, and the team continues to import the key players on offense - qb/rb/wr/te/lt.  just pathetic.

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6 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

At some point there's little conclusion to come to, other than the job is simply too big for him.

i can't remember a new gm of a bad team with no qb who didn't take a qb in the first round of his first 3 drafts.  what is he waiting for, how many years does he think he gets to find a qb?  my guess is he goes all in on cousins, that would absolve him of drafting a qb.

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Just now, Augustiniak said:

a scout wants to be right, they want to show the guy they banged the table for is a good player.  that's where mccags lives. look at lee, look at the progress he's making, look at maye, he's making plays.  he's not prioritizing positional value, heck, he's taken 2 offensive players with his first 6 top picks and neither can get on the field, so that shows you what he thinks of offense.  he drafts scared, bowles coaches scared, and the team continues to import the key players on offense - qb/rb/wr/te/lt.  just pathetic.

And Lee is still meh. In his "even more improvement" game Sunday, he just got beat for another easy TD. The only reason he doesn't look like crap because of it is a perfect pass in Hooper's hands was simply dropped, due to nothing Lee did. Hooper dropping it doesn't make Lee a better defender.

The idea that Bowles has to move everything else on D around, just to find a way in which Lee isn't blocked by anybody over 180 pounds, is crap. And I've little doubt this is precisely the player Bowles wanted when it was our turn to pick, as well as being Macc's precious BPA. 

The two of them might have some value as the underlings of other competent people, but they can't be the decision makers.

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Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

And Lee is still meh. In his "even more improvement" game Sunday, he just got beat for another easy TD. The only reason he doesn't look like crap because of it is a perfect pass in Hooper's hands was simply dropped, due to nothing Lee did. Hooper dropping it doesn't make Lee a better defender.

The idea that Bowles has to move everything else on D around, just to find a way in which Lee isn't blocked by anybody over 180 pounds, is crap. And I've little doubt this is precisely the player Bowles wanted when it was our turn to pick, as well as being Macc's precious BPA. 

The two of them might have some value as the underlings of other competent people, but they can't be the decision makers.

actually lee seems to be a better blitzer than cover lb, let him blitz.  at least he can make something happen.  

i just fear mccags will find a way not to draft a qb in the first round again, and then bring back mccown so he can effectively hide the draft pick he wasted.  the cycle is maddening and really does suggest he does not know what to do at the world's most important position in sports.

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3 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

actually lee seems to be a better blitzer than cover lb, let him blitz.  at least he can make something happen.  

i just fear mccags will find a way not to draft a qb in the first round again, and then bring back mccown so he can effectively hide the draft pick he wasted.  the cycle is maddening and really does suggest he does not know what to do at the world's most important position in sports.

Its possible that the initial Sanchez trade has made the owner more cautious. The second round QB and beyond is the ultimate hedge. Geno, Petty, Hack all within the last 5 years and over two regimes.

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5 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

i can't remember a new gm of a bad team with no qb who didn't take a qb in the first round of his first 3 drafts.  what is he waiting for, how many years does he think he gets to find a qb?  my guess is he goes all in on cousins, that would absolve him of drafting a qb.

I could maybe excuse it in 2015, just because of that draft. There were 2 QBs that went 1-2 and nobody else in the whole draft class. It's hard to argue the 250th overall player taken isn't the 3rd-best QB from that draft. 

If he wanted Cousins, that was the year to make a play, with Gruden announcing after the Superbowl that RGIII was the starter at that point. Was a better shot at the gold than Fitz, no matter how much better than expected that pickup ended up being. He was still just Fitz.

Three years, three opportunities for FQBs. Actually more, but that's without cherry picking his other misses like Dak. But then, if he's going to draft Hackenberg, and considering the massive credit he'd have gotten if that wasn't the mess that so many predicted, then frankly it's fair to get on him for that miss as well.

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10 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

actually lee seems to be a better blitzer than cover lb, let him blitz.  at least he can make something happen.  

i just fear mccags will find a way not to draft a qb in the first round again, and then bring back mccown so he can effectively hide the draft pick he wasted.  the cycle is maddening and really does suggest he does not know what to do at the world's most important position in sports.

He was drafted, in no small part, to cover. His value as a blitzer doesn't seem much better than putting a fast DB there, seeing as he has to go untouched to do damage.

I'm less concerned than you about a return of McCown as starter. Even Macc has to be aware of the optics of such a move.

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32 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

here's the reality:  mccags drafts out of fear, and bowles coaches out of fear.  mccags doesn't take risks with his first round picks, he'd rather take guys who have low bust potential than swing and miss on a qb like watson, which would all but cost him his job.  and bowles plays the oldest guys at every position unless there's an injury.  what does this mean?  it means the jets will take mike mcglinchey in the first round, a safe LT prospect, then take a cb in the early 2nd, followed by luke falk with the seahawks pick, who will watch mccown start 16 games next year.  some people swing for the fences, like tanny, while others are happy beating out a squibbler to first base.  

 

29 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think there are GMs in the league - Maccagnan is one, but he's far from the only one - who get so caught up in a prospect's hype they pretty much they forget to ask themselves how much this player truly moves the needle enough for their respective teams if drafted. Or even if they kind of know, they don't know it enough. Their draft board is their draft board, and they rank prospects by grade. Sorry, but that's how a simpleton works.

Take 2015's draft. Leo was supposed to be this great prospect coming out of school. If he became everything we hoped, which doesn't typically happen anyway, does a prospect like Leo really move the needle enough, over Mo and Sheldon still in their mid-20s, enough to warrant the 6th pick in the whole country? Of course not. Plus there was no guarantee he was going to be everything hoped (which is basically JJ Watt II), and you need him to be to even rationalize the pick. 

It's a logic issue, and he's using emotion to solve it.

Rank your rostered players on a subjective scale from 1-10. Say we had only an 8 and a 9 in Mo/Sheldon (take your pick which gets which rank). Pretend Leo's a 10 (which he isn't). Then pretend someone like Beasley was only a 7-prospect as an edge rusher (i.e. say he's correspondingly lower than Mo/Sheldon at their respective positions). Our roster's edge rusher was 35 year-old Calvin Pace and nobody else. As an edge rusher, Pace was closer to a 2-3, and only very temporarily that high at best. Then factor in the knowledge that long term edge rushers don't just present themselves in free agency upon demand, and that the team also has to consider a QB with its 1st round pick every year until it finds one, which lowers Pace's future value to almost zero. The incremental gain for 3-4 DE is minimal, even if Leo's great, and the incremental for EDGE rusher is tremendous, even if he's only just pretty good. That Macc can't do this calculation, or is ignorant to it when ranking prospects, is far more troubling than one mistake. It's a problem of philosophy, and his philosophy of blind BPA is dumb.

This is beyond a simple matter of drafting for pure need vs pure BPA. Pure need you get reaches well beyond the player's value (e.g. Hackenberg, oddly enough), but Macc's pure BPA is so impractical it's really no wiser as a strategy.

I think these 2 posts sum it up.  As he currently operates, Mac is not building the Jets they way they need to be.  The evidence from prior and competing picks over the last 3 years is irrefutable.  You build a team by drafting smartly, and the Jets have not.  It is the product of imperfect people in a messed up structure.  I think MaccBowles does better in a better structure.  Some GMs do not need a better structure-Mac's drafting from fear makes the structure hard.

The Jets need a change. 

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2 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

He was drafted, in no small part, to cover. His value as a blitzer doesn't seem much better than putting a fast DB there, seeing as he has to go untouched to do damage.

I'm less concerned than you about a return of McCown as starter. Even Macc has to be aware of the optics of such a move.

if mccown is the starter again, it would show this gm does not have a clue how to fix an offense.  every other team in the nfl either has an established starting qb or is trying to get one.  if mccags' approach to this situation is to have fitz start 2 years, then mccown, well, why should he be a gm?  what is he doing to improve this team?

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7 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

if mccown is the starter again, it would show this gm does not have a clue how to fix an offense.  every other team in the nfl either has an established starting qb or is trying to get one.  if mccags' approach to this situation is to have fitz start 2 years, then mccown, well, why should he be a gm?  what is he doing to improve this team?

Why do we need the "again" to arrive at this conclusion?  Why is it okay in year 3, but not year 4?

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Just now, gEYno said:

Why do we need the "again" to arrive at this conclusion?  Why is it okay in year 3, but not year 4?

you are correct.  i can't fathom another new gm not drafting a qb in the first round of his first 3 drafts, opting instead to draft backups at best in the 2nd and 4th rounds and bringing other teams' retreads while claiming a rebuild.  how is this any less pathetic than tannenbaum was exclaiming the jets struck gold with caleb schauderlauf?

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Maccagnan is a scout. So  after the championship game when Watson rips Bama's defense AGAIN, and simply could've sat on that, kept it very simple and obvious on draft day and left it at that.  Instead he spends 4 months hunting for a find, looking at combine nonsense and tape of DBs. Probably also listening to this idiot HC, which is another issue. And really ultimately overthinking things and talking himself out of Watson (or Mahomes). Oh, look what a great player I found! QB? WTF? 

And we have a DB HC who cannot coach DBs up unless we overpay the living sheet out of FA corners or use top picks on safeties. 

Both these guys deserved to be fired. But no point to doing it now. 

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Just now, Bugg said:

Maccagnan is a scout. So  after the championship game when Watson rips Bama's defense AGAIN, and simply could've sat on that, kept it very simple and obvious on draft day and left it at that.  Instead he spends 4 months hunting for a find, looking at combine nonsense and tape of DBs. Probably also listening to this idiot HC, which is another issue. And really ultimately overthinking things and talking himself out of Watson (or Mahomes). Oh, look what a great player I found! QB? WTF? 

And we have a DB HC who cannot coach DBs up unless we overpay the living sheet out of FA corners or use top picks on safeties. 

Both these guys deserved to be fired. But no point to doing it now. 

SO why are there combines then?

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So GMs can make a mess of  things really. These guys have been running 40s, benching 225, jumping, been getting measured and weighed since freshman year of high school.All that data is out there already.  Short answer is I DON'T KNOW. Ask Mike Mamula. 

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14 hours ago, gEYno said:

By remarkable leadership, I assume you mean how he's leading the league in TDs surrendered at his position?

I mean literally that the team is following him. Which you dont see a lot with a rookie. This was the top ranked player on tons of boards last year at a position we have been awful at forever. 

Amongst the opps we've had to draft a qb that could made a difference (bridgewater, carr, dak, etc) i think its random to fixate on this one when Adams was a straightforward pick that night. We've been awful at picking qbs since chad, thats not a reason to dump on this kid.

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3 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

I mean literally that the team is following him. Which you dont see a lot with a rookie. This was the top ranked player on tons of boards last year at a position we have been awful at forever. 

Amongst the opps we've had to draft a qb that could made a difference (bridgewater, carr, dak, etc) i think its random to fixate on this one when Adams was a straightforward pick that night. We've been awful at picking qbs since chad, thats not a reason to dump on this kid.

since chad?

So, is leading the league in TDs allowed at his position a reason to "dump on this kid" or no?

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22 minutes ago, gEYno said:

since chad?

So, is leading the league in TDs allowed at his position a reason to "dump on this kid" or no?

i think its a bit premature to evaluate anyone from last years draft, if he's still there at seasons end or hasnt shown improvement i'd be happy to concede that point. But i certainly wasnt referring to his td ratio when i mentioned his leadership. 

And i was a fan of penny, dont think we've picked well at that position since. 

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The shame of this and why I hate it is that none of the hate these people here give him is really his fault. He didn’t do anything wrong. It’s jsut that Jets fans like to be miserable and look across the yard at others neighbors goods and wish. Makes me wonder why they don’t just become fans of other teams

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On 10/31/2017 at 9:46 AM, UnitedWhofans said:

So in other words, instead of loving your solid wife, you want the hot chick across the street.

 

On 10/31/2017 at 9:48 AM, gEYno said:

No, not in other words, because this is about as bad an analogy as there is.

 

On 10/31/2017 at 9:49 AM, UnitedWhofans said:

Not really. YOu have a wife that is solid, not beautiful. And across the street there is this flashy girl that makes more money.

 

On 10/31/2017 at 9:51 AM, gEYno said:

Except, in reality, the Jets were on the clock with the choice of the 'solid' wife or the 'better' wife, as you've set up.  It's not like you're just coveting something you couldn't have had.  You literally could have had the 'better' wife if you wanted.  You chose not to.  That's why your analogy is a complete bust.

Your analogy works if it were Trubisky.

 

On 10/31/2017 at 9:54 AM, UnitedWhofans said:

No because, to use my analogy, you did not know that the better wife could bring the goods or not.

You had a choice of a solid wife that you were pretty sure would be a good wife or a flashy wife that may be fantastic but also could cheat on you and ruin your life

 

On 10/31/2017 at 9:59 AM, gEYno said:

Fine.  But then it's not your neighbors wife at all.  It's two women you could potentially marry.  But, here's the thing:

1) I'm very comfortable taking the risk on being really happy, because we've divorced a lot of wives (flashy and solid) and this one isn't going to ruin anything anymore than any of the others (Gholston, Keller, Sanchez, Wilson, Coples, Milliner, Richardson, and Pryor).  There will be another opportunity to marry again in a few years, and if the latest hot wife doesn't work out, I try another one.

2) The solid wife hasn't even proven that she's solid yet.

 

On 10/31/2017 at 10:01 AM, UnitedWhofans said:

2. I think the solid wife has proven to be better than some of those previous wives you mentioned. (Especially #1)

So I think that the wife has been solid

CkHmwBz.gif

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