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Jets Fans Hoping Broncos’ Lynch Isn’t Repeat of Idzik’s Carr Wreck


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7 hours ago, jgb said:

The fear of Geno succeeding doesn't keep me up at night. Regarding ODB, there is a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg argument here. Namely, what would ODB be without competent QB play? I suspect if ODB had the misfortune of being drafted by the Jets, especially given his antics, a fair number of us would be saying that "ODB"  stood for "Over-Drafted Bust," or more likely he never would've even been bestowed with an acronym and he'd be "Odell, a solid receiver picked way too early by that nincompoop John Idzik."

The point being that every elite QB can be said (by coincidence?) to also have an elite supporting cast. Except perhaps poor Philip Rivers. The question remains: which made which? Different receivers have swirled around the elites like Big Ben, Brees, Brady for years, and yet they deliver time and time again. Is it possible that teams like Pitt and New Orleans just always seem to find studs at the position and can let "elite" WRs go knowing with supreme confidence that they will find another seemingly every draft? Or is it more likely that being paired with an elite QB makes WRs a bit interchangeable and helps one become a stud? In my experience the simplest explanation with the least variables to account for is usually the more accurate. In this case: the QB maketh the supporting cast.

Now once in awhile a truly elite QB gets paired with a truly elite WR and then you see records shattered (see: Randy Moss in New England, Rice and Montana).

 

I have your winner right here, even if he wouldn't have been an outright bust for the Jets:

"He's not a true #1 WR"

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On June 25, 2017 at 9:05 PM, Paradis said:

The vitriol you're laying down is just furthering you're already murky reputation for being a baseless blowhard

 

Ok so we can't use practices, TC and preseason to say anything about Christina Wackinturd BUT hearsay about a legendary May OTA involving Lynch means he's the new Brady

 

Got it

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10 hours ago, jgb said:

The accuracy thing is huge. When a Brady or a Brees can consistently put it on the receiver's belt buckle, he doesn't need the elite skills necessary to gain significant separation play after play like he would need with a less-accurate thrower. If Jeremy Kerley was a Patriot, I think you'd be looking at a 90+ catch player and if Edelman was a Jet he'd be... well, Jeremy Kerley. Probably a lot of guys in the league that would be true for Brady is just that good. But having a Randy Moss in his prime wouldn't turn an average QB into Brady. I agree with you some WRs are transcendent players, and your list feels about right. But given that a QB touches the ball every snap, I still say the QB elevates the supporting cast more than the other way around. Put another way I'd bet on the elite QB with the average receivers (which he would get more out of then their skill indicates) over the average QB with one elite WR, who can only be fed so much. Sure there are exceptions when you also have an unstoppable OLine and stud RB, maybe you can protect the QB a bit and make him look better than he is (like Dak Prescott, who would not have won OROTY on almost any other team, Hell he wasn't the best offensive rookie on his own team). But that's not the easiest path to win a championship. If there were 10 roads to the SB, 9 of them depend on an elite QB imho. That's a long winded way to say if Geno had a reasonable chance to succeed in the future, we would've seen more evidence suggesting that possibility even with the "lack of weapons" he undoubtedly experienced. Thus, it's possible (I'd argue reasonable) to believe both that Geno had a below average supporting cast but still himself sucks.

 

It's amazing with Brady and Brees honestly with how good their accuracy is.  I remember one throw in the Superbow (I think it was to Hogan down the middle) where he was well covered.  The defender was right by him, had the inside angle, and Brady just dropped it right over the top to Hogan perfectly.  I'm not even sure Fitzpatrick or Geno could even hand the ball off that perfectly.  I think pretty much any shifty player works great in that system, because they seem to run a double read system there.  So, not only does Brady read the defense at the line, the receivers are reading the defense as the play evolves, with Brady reading the same with them.  So if a defense shows a blitz with press man, but drops into zone coverage, his receivers have the ability to re-route themselves, and they are in tune with Brady on it, making it almost impossible to stop.  I think that's why we hear a lot about how it takes players a long time to pick up the system, where I don't think it's the playbook as much as it's the ability to make the same reads as the QB during the play.  I read a stat where they are much better against the zone (where receivers and QBs can adjust to the open zone) than press man coverage.  That's probably why we had some success against them with Rex since we used to run more press man coverage, at which point it's mainly the offensive player vs. defensive player match up.  

I think it's rare to find an elite QB that doesn't start off with a stud guy to bail him out first.  

Romo- started with Owens/Glenn and then Owens/Witten in the first two years that he really played.  

Peyton with Harrison and then Harrison/Wayne

Rothlesberger had Hines Ward and Plaxico one year, and then Ward.

Drew Brees was average until Antonio Gates showed up

Cam Newton got Steve Smith and Greg Olsen

Matt Ryan had Roddy White, and then White/Tony Gonzalez

Stafford with Megatron

Rodgers is a bit weird since he sat for so long, but had Drive/Jennings

Rivers started with Gates and Vincent Jackson

Andy Dalton with AJ Green/Gresham to Green/Sanu/Gresham/Jones

Eli started with Plaxico/Shockey

Andrew Luck started with Wayne/Hilton

Brady is in a class of his own, because I do think he made the receivers he had, until Welker/Moss showed up.  He's a rare one.  

Usually guys start off with having people that can just bail them out until they get the system down and NFL speed down.  It's rare to see guys do well without that bail out option at first until they are ready.  I think it's what Tanny was doing with Sanchez, where he gave him Holmes/Edwards to start, but figured that he had matured enough to make others better, and it backfired.  

Geno did no favors for himself, and there are certain limitations to his game.  One of the worst was his inability to change angles on throws down the field, and it's actually one of the biggest things I harped on with Lynch last year.  Playing in the spread Air Raid system, Geno could afford to wait until guys were open, or take advantage of one on one opportunities so he never really had to put much touch on passes.  Everything was, get it from Point A to B as fast as you can, or allow your guy to make a play on the ball.  Unfortunately, Geno got killed by other players not directly involved in defending his receiver jumping the route and intercepting or knocking away passes.  The only time I saw him do this better was that Miami game where he had the perfect rating.  I thought he hurt his arm or something because the ball looked like it was being lobbed, but he succeeded because he was changing angles.  It was one of the reasons why I was looking forward to him with Gailey because the reads were more simple for him.  There are a couple of games (I researched them to write about preparing for Geno starting with Marshall/Decker but then IK happened) where in the coaches film, I had a hard time finding anyone open.  The Ravens game and a Lions game.  In both instances, by the time he had someone in his face, I couldn't find anyone even remotely open on most plays.  Those two teams basically said that they weren't afraid of the weapons and just came after the QB and we didn't have guys that could win one on one match ups.  

I'm not even sure if he succeeds with the Giants that it's a true form of his talent, because it's stacked completely the other way for him, because I think a QB would have trouble not succeeding with that kind of talent.  Motivated Marshall/OBJ are No. 1 guys.  Shepard is a great slot guy, and Engram is an excellent receiver that can play the Enunwa role, and I think he tested faster than Enunwa.  That's just a match up nightmare for most defenses.  I think it's a lesson he learned from Fitz, in that, don't go to them crappy team that gives you a chance to start and possibly fall on your face.  Go to the loaded team with an established starter, and you are one injury away from being in a great situation.  

 

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On 6/27/2017 at 7:53 AM, thadude said:

Ok so we can't use practices, TC and preseason to say anything about Christina Wackinturd BUT hearsay about a legendary May OTA involving Lynch means he's the new Brady

 

Got it

huh, i don't even know who or what you're slamming.

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  • 1 month later...
On 6/25/2017 at 10:03 AM, Tinstar said:

You know it's a sad thing, but during these dog days, unless C Mart or Kelly are posting articles or someone is posting tweets from camp, these boards for the most part are a waste of time .  A bunch of trolls trying to antagonize  each other because they don't have anything better to do or anything good worth saying about a team they supposedly can't live with or live without .

KRL, and the Film review.

No one else is breaking down any film.

Used to get some from Bent at SNY but it seems the kicked BGA to the curb in loo of Vacchiano who doesn't seem to actually watch the games, much less break down the game film. 

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1 hour ago, RoadFan said:

I have no idea what John Elway was looking at when he decided to draft Paxton Lynch.  I could tell after watching a couple of games on youtube that he was extremely likely to fail.

He has no balls.

Osweiller looks bad too. Maybe picking QBs is hard?

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53 minutes ago, Larz said:

Osweiller looks bad too. Maybe picking QBs is hard?

Watch a couple of college games of Lynch.  NOT JUST A HIGHLIGHT REEL. You'll see happy feet, backpedaling in the face of pressure, throwing off his back foot, and his "cutesy, well-groomed flavor saver" on the photos around the internet.  Find me a hockey player that looks like that? Sure, you'll see a few nice back-shoulder throws mixed in. But he looks more like an actor playing a "good" pirate in a kids movie, not a football player.

Then watch some film of Jared Goff.  You'll see a kid that took a beating, but kept stepping up in the pocket knowing he was going to get hit hard.

Wentz was a better prospect than both IMO.  But Goff has some balls.  Lynch?  They never descended.

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4 hours ago, Larz said:

who knows if Lynch will be any good, but losing the starter nod to trevor isn't a good look

Ryan Fitzgarbage has a stronger arm than Siemian.  It just goes to show how bad Paxton Lynch is and how clueless about football the people liked him as a prospect were

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2 hours ago, RoadFan said:

Watch a couple of college games of Lynch.  NOT JUST A HIGHLIGHT REEL. You'll see happy feet, backpedaling in the face of pressure, throwing off his back foot, and his "cutesy, well-groomed flavor saver" on the photos around the internet.  Find me a hockey player that looks like that? Sure, you'll see a few nice back-shoulder throws mixed in. But he looks more like an actor playing a "good" pirate in a kids movie, not a football player.

Then watch some film of Jared Goff.  You'll see a kid that took a beating, but kept stepping up in the pocket knowing he was going to get hit hard.

Wentz was a better prospect than both IMO.  But Goff has some balls.  Lynch?  They never descended.

Lynch came from a one-read shotgun spread system at Memphis. I also saw his workouts at Indianapolis and wasn't impressed with his accuracy.  He's a poor man's Colin Kaepernick I said it before the 2016 draft

 

Patsfantx was a huge Paxton Lynch guy and was laughing at us for not drafting him

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4 hours ago, RoadFan said:

I have no idea what John Elway was looking at when he decided to draft Paxton Lynch.  I could tell after watching a couple of games on youtube that he was extremely likely to fail.

He has no balls.

Elway overreacted to losing Peyton Manning.  Things have secondary and tertiary effects.  Mac felt the heat from the media (i.e. - Cimini etc.) who thought he should have drafted Lynch in rd 1 so he panicked and reached for Hackensuck the following day

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5 minutes ago, thadude said:

Elway overreacted to losing Peyton Manning.  Things have secondary and tertiary effects.  Mac felt the heat from the media (i.e. - Cimini etc.) who thought he should have drafted Lynch in rd 1 so he panicked and reached for Hackensuck the following day

And this is our GM. THIS!?!?  He is worried that some stupid media and/or fans wanted him to draft a stiff? He didn't, so he panicked and drafted a different stiff?

Can Macc evaluate the likelihood of success at all?  Neither were worthy of more than a 5th IMO.

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3 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

And this is our GM. THIS!?!?  He is worried that some stupid media and/or fans wanted him to draft a stiff? He didn't, so he panicked and drafted a different stiff?

Can Macc evaluate the likelihood of success at all?  Neither were worthy of more than a 5th IMO.

That is exactly what happened.  31 other GM's had Hack rated as a 5th or 6th round pick.  Hack wasn't good at PSU after Allen Robinson left and everyone figured it out except Macagnan.

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43 minutes ago, thadude said:

Elway overreacted to losing Peyton Manning.  Things have secondary and tertiary effects.  Mac felt the heat from the media (i.e. - Cimini etc.) who thought he should have drafted Lynch in rd 1 so he panicked and reached for Hackensuck the following day

 

38 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

And this is our GM. THIS!?!?  He is worried that some stupid media and/or fans wanted him to draft a stiff? He didn't, so he panicked and drafted a different stiff?

Can Macc evaluate the likelihood of success at all?  Neither were worthy of more than a 5th IMO.

 

33 minutes ago, thadude said:

That is exactly what happened.  31 other GM's had Hack rated as a 5th or 6th round pick.  Hack wasn't good at PSU after Allen Robinson left and everyone figured it out except Macagnan.

This is just some straight up conspiracy theory crap.  Is it really not a bad enough indictment of Macc that he made the pick on his own, based on his opinion of the supposed talent of Hack?  Instead there is some need to invent a baseless storyline about the mystical forces of media being involved in a stupid pick?  It's really quite the special skill to be able to invalidate your own argument, even despite the general basis for it being one that many would agree with if kept within even the slightest degree of reality.

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11 hours ago, NYs Stepchild said:

KRL, and the Film review.

No one else is breaking down any film.

Used to get some from Bent at SNY but it seems the kicked BGA to the curb in loo of Vacchiano who doesn't seem to actually watch the games, much less break down the game film. 

KRL is the best thing going once camp stars with his reports .  I didn't mean to disparage KRL, just the constant cut and paste post that exist in every single thread by some just for their amusement . 

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15 minutes ago, Tinstar said:

KRL is the best thing going once camp stars with his reports .  I didn't mean to disparage KRL, just the constant cut and paste post that exist in every single thread by some just for their amusement . 

I didn't mean to suggest you were. Just pointing out the good things still exclusively available here at JN. 

I do hear you about the tone. I'm afraid it's only going to get worse until we start winning again. People need to learn how to skim past the obvious trolls to get to the substance in between. 

I'm not a fan of general negativity, but I'm not a fan of controlling speech either. Basically I don't want anything to be banned ever.

Marginalizing hate is far more effective than banning it.  Networks refusing to show fans running on the field is a great example. This is how we need to treat all attention whores. 

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Had occasion to fiLp on the waning minutes of Jints/Browns to her Gruden explain in the 4th quarter of the 2nd exhibition game former 1st rounder Calvin Pryor was on the field for Cleveland and he was on the bubble and fighting for a roster spot. SAFETIES, MAN!

In a sensible word any Jets scout who uses the phrase "hard-hitting safety" would get hit off the head with hard objects until he ceases breathing. 

 

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On 6/25/2017 at 8:21 AM, gEYno said:

Yeah, that's the one I meant.

In fairness to Bit, the $ Brick was making should have kept him around another 5 years. But what you cannot account for is a smart guy with all his faculties intact getting tired of the NFL grind coupled with having earned enough coin to have eff you money for the rest of his life. 

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On 6/25/2017 at 10:27 AM, jetspenguin said:

yeah a thousand years of watching this team it seems.....but I dont think Beli had a choice. Brady was all he has at the time and it worked out really well. That team however functions no matter who plays the QB position so it remains to be seen how much of that early playing was brady or beli

Rogers sat for at least a year...in fact wasnt it 3 years he sat? Marino played in a different era when the rules were different and I dont agree that Pennington was stronger. He wasnt not someone to be described as stronger than anyone...not even the punter. I do agree there was a lot more positive pub about these guys that hack by far but Hack has made himself an easy target in a hard market. If he cant take the heat then he ain't the guy.  

I am in the same boat and wish/pray that we can get a couple of lucky bounces one year and get a ring. I'd love to replace some of my memorabilia with championship stuff. I know, I know...we will be the butt of all jokes still because they will call us a 1 year wonder and say its about time and we will never do it again but at this stage of my life IDGAF. 

 

hahahahaha

 

As to Rodgers; a team with an aging HoF QB took him. The Jets always have a reason not to go QB or even offense. 

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On 6/26/2017 at 7:44 PM, NoBowles said:

I don't see it that way at all. Sanchez was one of the most hated Jets of all time, in fact, he was passionately hated before he ever took a snap for the Jets for that GQ spread. I remember his rookie season Jets fans at the games boo'ing him and rooting for him to fail. Geno was going to come in and get rid of Sanchez for Jets fans, so he actually got a lot more slack by most Jets fans than he even deserved.  Geno did not start getting hated until he started acting like a dick head.

Know I saw an awful lot of #6 blue "Titans" jerseys his first 3 years. Not sure how that qualifies as hatred. Disappointment is more accurate. 

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On 6/27/2017 at 5:06 PM, win4ever said:

It's amazing with Brady and Brees honestly with how good their accuracy is.  I remember one throw in the Superbow (I think it was to Hogan down the middle) where he was well covered.  The defender was right by him, had the inside angle, and Brady just dropped it right over the top to Hogan perfectly.  I'm not even sure Fitzpatrick or Geno could even hand the ball off that perfectly.  I think pretty much any shifty player works great in that system, because they seem to run a double read system there.  So, not only does Brady read the defense at the line, the receivers are reading the defense as the play evolves, with Brady reading the same with them.  So if a defense shows a blitz with press man, but drops into zone coverage, his receivers have the ability to re-route themselves, and they are in tune with Brady on it, making it almost impossible to stop.  I think that's why we hear a lot about how it takes players a long time to pick up the system, where I don't think it's the playbook as much as it's the ability to make the same reads as the QB during the play.  I read a stat where they are much better against the zone (where receivers and QBs can adjust to the open zone) than press man coverage.  That's probably why we had some success against them with Rex since we used to run more press man coverage, at which point it's mainly the offensive player vs. defensive player match up.  

I think it's rare to find an elite QB that doesn't start off with a stud guy to bail him out first.  

Romo- started with Owens/Glenn and then Owens/Witten in the first two years that he really played.  

Peyton with Harrison and then Harrison/Wayne

Rothlesberger had Hines Ward and Plaxico one year, and then Ward.

Drew Brees was average until Antonio Gates showed up

Cam Newton got Steve Smith and Greg Olsen

Matt Ryan had Roddy White, and then White/Tony Gonzalez

Stafford with Megatron

Rodgers is a bit weird since he sat for so long, but had Drive/Jennings

Rivers started with Gates and Vincent Jackson

Andy Dalton with AJ Green/Gresham to Green/Sanu/Gresham/Jones

Eli started with Plaxico/Shockey

Andrew Luck started with Wayne/Hilton

Brady is in a class of his own, because I do think he made the receivers he had, until Welker/Moss showed up.  He's a rare one.  

Usually guys start off with having people that can just bail them out until they get the system down and NFL speed down.  It's rare to see guys do well without that bail out option at first until they are ready.  I think it's what Tanny was doing with Sanchez, where he gave him Holmes/Edwards to start, but figured that he had matured enough to make others better, and it backfired.  

Geno did no favors for himself, and there are certain limitations to his game.  One of the worst was his inability to change angles on throws down the field, and it's actually one of the biggest things I harped on with Lynch last year.  Playing in the spread Air Raid system, Geno could afford to wait until guys were open, or take advantage of one on one opportunities so he never really had to put much touch on passes.  Everything was, get it from Point A to B as fast as you can, or allow your guy to make a play on the ball.  Unfortunately, Geno got killed by other players not directly involved in defending his receiver jumping the route and intercepting or knocking away passes.  The only time I saw him do this better was that Miami game where he had the perfect rating.  I thought he hurt his arm or something because the ball looked like it was being lobbed, but he succeeded because he was changing angles.  It was one of the reasons why I was looking forward to him with Gailey because the reads were more simple for him.  There are a couple of games (I researched them to write about preparing for Geno starting with Marshall/Decker but then IK happened) where in the coaches film, I had a hard time finding anyone open.  The Ravens game and a Lions game.  In both instances, by the time he had someone in his face, I couldn't find anyone even remotely open on most plays.  Those two teams basically said that they weren't afraid of the weapons and just came after the QB and we didn't have guys that could win one on one match ups.  

I'm not even sure if he succeeds with the Giants that it's a true form of his talent, because it's stacked completely the other way for him, because I think a QB would have trouble not succeeding with that kind of talent.  Motivated Marshall/OBJ are No. 1 guys.  Shepard is a great slot guy, and Engram is an excellent receiver that can play the Enunwa role, and I think he tested faster than Enunwa.  That's just a match up nightmare for most defenses.  I think it's a lesson he learned from Fitz, in that, don't go to them crappy team that gives you a chance to start and possibly fall on your face.  Go to the loaded team with an established starter, and you are one injury away from being in a great situation.  

 

Not going to pretend I've watched every USC game for the last 2 years. But Darnold's highlight film has a lot of accuracy. Threw a long TD pass in their bowl game that made Kirk Herbstreit bust a nut on live TV. 

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7 hours ago, Bleedin Green said:

 

 

This is just some straight up conspiracy theory crap.  Is it really not a bad enough indictment of Macc that he made the pick on his own, based on his opinion of the supposed talent of Hack?  Instead there is some need to invent a baseless storyline about the mystical forces of media being involved in a stupid pick?  It's really quite the special skill to be able to invalidate your own argument, even despite the general basis for it being one that many would agree with if kept within even the slightest degree of reality.

Agreed.  This is the type of garbage that makes some threads unreadable.

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  • 4 years later...
On 6/27/2017 at 8:22 AM, jgb said:

The fear of Geno succeeding doesn't keep me up at night. Regarding ODB, there is a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg argument here. Namely, what would ODB be without competent QB play? I suspect if ODB had the misfortune of being drafted by the Jets, especially given his antics, a fair number of us would be saying that "ODB"  stood for "Over-Drafted Bust," or more likely he never would've even been bestowed with an acronym and he'd be "Odell, a solid receiver picked way too early by that nincompoop John Idzik."

The point being that every elite QB can be said (by coincidence?) to also have an elite supporting cast. Except perhaps poor Philip Rivers. The question remains: which made which? Different receivers have swirled around the elites like Big Ben, Brees, Brady for years, and yet they deliver time and time again. Is it possible that teams like Pitt and New Orleans just always seem to find studs at the position and can let "elite" WRs go knowing with supreme confidence that they will find another seemingly every draft? Or is it more likely that being paired with an elite QB makes WRs a bit interchangeable and helps one become a stud? In my experience the simplest explanation with the least variables to account for is usually the more accurate. In this case: the QB maketh the supporting cast.

Now once in awhile a truly elite QB gets paired with a truly elite WR and then you see records shattered (see: Randy Moss in New England, Rice and Montana).

 

 

On 6/27/2017 at 4:02 PM, Sperm Edwards said:

I have your winner right here, even if he wouldn't have been an outright bust for the Jets:

"He's not a true #1 WR"

Congratulations on calling that one, Sperm.

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11 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Whoa whoa whoa...... OBJ is not a true #1 now, he has faded, but he 100% for sure was one his first three years.

Depending on landing spot he may well be again. QB maketh the man. If Antonio Brown landed basically anywhere but the Bucs I wonder what his stats would be right now. And he's even more of a diva-douche than OBJ, and 4 years older.

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On 6/25/2017 at 5:52 PM, RutgersJetFan said:

It's kind of nuts how Jets boards circle back to this same exact stupid ******* debate once every 2-4 years or so. Considering the essence of Jets fandom is this very thing - hoping that someone else's guy won't be good because we passed on him and in the meantime never hit on anything ourselves - you'd think this one would have gotten settled long ago. But nope, same sh*t. Every time.

YAHTZEE 

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17 hours ago, Beerfish said:

Whoa whoa whoa...... OBJ is not a true #1 now, he has faded, but he 100% for sure was one his first three years.

The point wasn't that he isn't as great as he once was, nor to lessen his performance with the Giants (on the field, and when healthy).

Rather it's that, had he gotten drafted by the Jets, he would've been considered "not a true #1" around here, and those expressing as much would've pointed to things ranging from his unimposing stature to the lack of 1300-1500 yard seasons as evidence.

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