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From GGN: Hack-Inaccurate to a Fault?

varjet

By varjet
in NY Jets Forum

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varjet

varjet

Posted
Posted
This is an excellent analysis, and hopefully Macc had the same information when he drafted Hack (and had a plan for dealing with it).
 
 
Inaccurate to a Fault?
 
by Smackdad 

In 2016 27 of 32 NFL teams had completion percentages greater than 59%. The five that did not were the Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers. It is perhaps no coincidence that four of those five teams were last place teams in 2016 and the fifth, the Rams, finished with a 4-12 record. The average NFL team in 2016 had a 63% completion percentage, and only one playoff team, the Houston Texans, who squeaked in with a 9-7 record, had a completion percentage below the league average. Completion percentage is clearly not the end all and be all in quarterback play, but as a proxy for accuracy it does a really good job of separating the NFL haves from the have nots.

Christian Hackenberg has to date completed 50% of his passes in training camp. 50% is not a winning number. Consider that Josh McCown, who has a long career record of inaccuracy resulting in a career completion percentage of 59%, has connected at a 66% rate thus far in Jets camp, and Bryce Petty, a terribly inaccurate quarterback in 2016 at below 55%, has thus far completed 61% of his passes in camp. McCown, Petty and Hackenberg are all running the same offense.  Two are above 60%, and Hackenberg trails badly at 50%.

By themselves those statistics don't mean much. Small sample, not game conditions, not throwing to the same receivers, etc. But consider that Hackenberg was also below 50% in 2016 training camp. In his only extended playing time under game conditions in 2016 Hackenberg was a dreadful 11 for 31 (35%) in one of the worst quarterback performances I have witnessed. The sample gets a little larger.

Then there is college. In three years at Penn State Hackenberg completed only 56% of his passes and had only 12 out of 38 games in which he completed more than 60% of his passes. Well, sure, you say, but there were extenuating circumstances. Hackenberg lost his coach and his best teammates after his freshman year, and the new coach and untalented supporting cast screwed up his mechanics. Fair enough. Makes some sense. But then how do we explain the fact that in Hackenberg's best year in 2013, he had quarterback whisperer Bill O'Brien coaching him. He had a Penn State team yet to be ravaged by the Paterno fallout. He was throwing to one of the best wide receivers in college football in Allen Robinson, who would go on to become a Pro Bowl receiver in the NFL. Robinson caught more than 40% of Hackenberg's passes in 2013. Throw in passes to the running backs and tight ends and more than 60% of Hackenberg's targets in 2013 went to either safe, easy targets in the running backs or tight ends, or to a receiver in Robinson who nearly always had a mismatch in talent. And still Hackenberg was unable to break the rather pedestrian 60% barrier, completing less than 59% of his passes in 2013.

Maybe we should let that sink in for a moment. We have statistics going back to Hackenberg as a 15 year old, and at no level of competition - not high school, not college, not in limited NFL reps, has he ever completed passes at a rate of 59% or higher.

At some point the explanations of how two years at Penn State screwed up Hackenberg's mechanics and his accuracy simply do not hold water. Hackenberg was an inaccurate quarterback in high school. He was an inaccurate quarterback in college BEFORE the coaching change and the talent exodus. He continued to be an inaccurate quarterback the rest of his college career, and that has continued throughout his limited pro reps. That doesn't mean he can never be accurate. Improvement is always a possibility. But as the years go by and he never at any time exhibits a minimal level of accuracy necessary for success at the NFL level the chances of that get progressively worse. At this point in his football career, having stacked up seven plus consecutive years of unacceptable inaccuracy, those chances are looking extremely remote. The unfortunate fact is Hackenberg is an extreme long shot to ever become accurate enough as a passer to succeed at the NFL level. Sure, he has a rocket arm, and he will surely impress with the occasional gorgeous throw that few others can make. He will likely have a few scattered games where he performs at an excellent level of accuracy. But those glimpses of greatness are likely to in the end be nothing more than a tease, as Christian Hackenberg will likely never be able to string enough such throws and such games together to be successful in the NFL.

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Spoot-Face

Spoot-Face

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"Inaccurate to a fault"?

What the **** does that even mean? Being inaccurate IS a fault. That figure of speech only makes sense with a positive, like: "honest to a fault" or "sexy to a fault".

Because of that idiocy, I refuse to even read the article.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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18 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

"Inaccurate to a fault"?

What the **** does that even mean? Being inaccurate IS a fault. That figure of speech only makes sense with a positive, like: "honest to a fault" or "sexy to a fault".

Because of that idiocy, I refuse to even read the article.

JN FLASH POLL: which is funnier?

a.) An adult person not knowing what "to a fault" means

b.) Hackenberg was apparently a sub-55% passer in ******* high school.

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Bleedin Green

Bleedin Green

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38 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

"Inaccurate to a fault"?

What the **** does that even mean? Being inaccurate IS a fault. That figure of speech only makes sense with a positive, like: "honest to a fault" or "sexy to a fault".

Because of that idiocy, I refuse to even read the article.

I don't know, I've always felt that inaccuracy tends to historically be one of Jets' QBs greatest strengths.

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Matt39

Matt39

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38 minutes ago, Sarge4Tide said:

Pretty much stopped when I read "has completed 50% of his passes in training camp"

Anybody who writes those words as part of the analysis of a QB is not worthy of serious consideration 

If he doesnt practice well, why should he play?

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Pcola

Pcola

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3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Damning indictment of Mac selecting him in the 2nd round.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

The only solace I can take in that is convincing myself that Woody made that call.  Then after last season, Woody admitted he was a moron and allowed Macc and Bowles to blow the whole thing up while Woody promised to never get involved again.

I mean that explains the quick turn from competitive rebuild to the purge we saw the last few months.  

If Macc ACTUALLY made the call to draft Hack at 51, he and the staff that convinced to do so, should never work in the NFL ever again.

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peebag

peebag

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8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

His two games last year?  37 and 35% completion rates, thus his 50% is like a Tom Brady year for Hack.

you mean the preseason games as a rookie?  Yep, kick him to the curb.

You guys suck.

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jgb

jgb

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The only solace I can take in that is convincing myself that Woody made that call.  Then after last season, Woody admitted he was a moron and allowed Macc and Bowles to blow the whole thing up while Woody promised to never get involved again.

I mean that explains the quick turn from competitive rebuild to the purge we saw the last few months.  

If Macc ACTUALLY made the call to draft Hack at 51, he and the staff that convinced to do so, should never work in the NFL ever again.

 

I think it was all Mac. He got snowed by his old buddy O'Brien who was trying to do a final favour for Hack--a kid who stuck at Penn St when he easily could've walked.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

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C Mart

C Mart

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http://www.maxpreps.com/m/career/gendersport/stats.aspx?careerid=568e94b5-e6f4-e211-99e4-002655e6c126&gendersport=boys,football

https://n.rivals.com/position_rankings/football/2013/PRO

 

Hackenberg attended Fluvanna County High School for his freshman year before transferring to Fork Union Military Academy in Fork Union, Virginia. He was ranked as the best pro-style quarterback recruit by ESPN,[3] and the second best pro-style quarterback recruit by Rivals.com.[4]

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Pcola

Pcola

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13 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

All he needs to do is see what college qb has the highest completion average, draft him, and prosper. This stuff is not that difficult.

Are there any quality QBs in the NFL today that were below 60% completion their last year in college?

Its not the number #1 criteria but there are minimums.  There is a reason Hack was rated so low by 31 other teams.  But as Jets fans we give the morons that make these decisions the benefit of the doubt.  

Im holding out hope that the expertise that is coaching daily can at least make him an average QB but I have my doubts that the FO ever wants to see him have to take the field.

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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8 minutes ago, peebag said:

you mean the preseason games as a rookie?  Yep, kick him to the curb.

You guys suck.

There were 89 QBs that played in the ex season last year.  Including 13 rookies, Hack was 89 out of 89 in comp % and 87 out of 89 in rating.

His comp % was 36.2

8% below any other rookie QB.

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Integrity28

Integrity28

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2 hours ago, varjet said:

those statistics don't mean much

This is really the whole article. The rest of it is a message boarder / blogger pandering to the reprehensible and effeminate hysterics of what is fast becoming one of the worst fan bases in sports. 

Accept the fact that whimpering, whining and elevated blood pressure isn't ever going to change the team, or it's outcomes. Then sit back, and wait patiently for them to play football - if they do good, then cheer. If they do poorly, then groan. Either way... go out and live a good life. 

Holy sh*t sticks.

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Scott Dierking

Scott Dierking

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3 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Are there any quality QBs in the NFL today that were below 60% completion their last year in college?

Its not the number #1 criteria but there are minimums.  There is a reason Hack was rated so low by 31 other teams.  But as Jets fans we give the morons that make these decisions the benefit of the doubt.  

Im holding out hope that the expertise that is coaching daily can at least make him an average QB but I have my doubts that the FO ever wants to see him have to take the field.

You talked with and have contacts with 31 other teams? Cool

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56mehl56

56mehl56

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5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

There were 89 QBs that played in the ex season last year.  Including 13 rookies, Hack was 89 out of 89 in comp % and 87 out of 89 in rating.

His comp % was 36.2

8% below any other rookie QB.

And if Hack threw 3 passes and completed 2 of them last PS , everyone here would be saying buuuuuut the sample size is too small to say he's a 66% completion passer.

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Jet_Engine1

Jet_Engine1

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Look, I hope Hackenberg can develop into at least a competent NFL #2, it doesnt do anybody good for him to not even equal Jimmy Clausen level of ability in the NFL. With that being said, the Panthers selected Clausen in the middle of the second round, but as soon as they had the opportunity to draft a blue chipper, they grabbed Cam. Because they realized Clausens ceiling was backup QB.

The Skins took Bob Griffin Jr in the first, took Cousins 3 rounds later. So its not like drafting a guy in the second round precludes a team from grabbing another QB shortly after, there is plenty of precedent.... Although the Jets once again screwed it up when they were determined to prove Geno was the guy - until they sh*tcanned HIM, but with no plan for the future in place. Weird..

 

Unless Hack really, really ups his game this year, if they have a shot at Darnold, Allen, or Rosen, you make the damn pick. And if Hack is able to improve to the level of a competent NFL QB (which he has yet to demonstrate), its win-win.

 

But they need to know, which is why giving McCown any time this year is simply stupid. 

 

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C Mart

C Mart

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Members of the 2013 Penn State recruiting class faced tremendous adversity en route to their collegiate careers. QB Christian Hackenberg emerged as a catalyst for the group, effectively becoming the face of what many hoped would be a fresh start for the Nittany Lions football program.

Now a New York Jets player, the Pennsylvania native has spent most of this decade in the spotlight. Hackenberg was a consensus blue-chip prospect throughout his high school career, which he capped off in the Under Armour All-America Game.

The son of a former college quarterback, he made an immediate mark after transferring to Fork Union Military Academy (Fork Union, Va.) for his sophomore year. That program is known for producing college stars and several NFL standouts such as RB Eddie George and WR Plaxico Burress.

Hackenberg started behind center in each of his three seasons there, producing 5,473 passing yards and 55 touchdown tosses, according to Penn State. He helped Fork Union reach two state championship games during this span, winning the 2010 VISAA Division I title as a sophomore.

Along the way, Hackenberg earned Elite 11 accolades. He would return to that annual event during his Penn State career, serving as a mentor for rising recruits.

“Christian is a kid you build your program around. You’re better the moment he steps on campus,” said Super Bowl champion QB Trent Dilferduring the 2012 Elite 11 selection ceremony.

Plenty of programs expressed a similar sentiment. Alabama, Florida, Miami, Penn State, Stanford, South Carolina and Tennessee all offered by February 2012, when Hackenberg was about midway through his junior year.

Here’s a look at how recruiting-industry leaders viewed Hackenberg, who competed at 6-foot-4, 210 pounds as a high school senior.

247Sports: No. 1 quarterback; No. 7 overall; 5-star prospect

ESPN: No. 1 quarterback; No. 15 overall; 4-star prospect

Rivals: No. 2 quarterback; No. 24 overall; 5-star prospect

Scout: No. 2 quarterback; No. 33 overall; 5-star prospect

Fresh off his first National Signing Day in State College, then-Nittany Lions coach Bill O’Brien searched for a centerpiece pledge to provide foundation in the 2013 recruiting cycle. He found it Feb. 29 – Leap Day 2012 – when Hackenberg committed to the program.

A junior day visit to campus earlier that month helped seal the deal.

“Christian was smart about this, he knew he wanted a program that fit his physical gifts,” Fork Union coach Micky Sullivan told Erick Smith of USA Today at the time. “That means he wanted a pro-style offense and having a head coach that ran an NFL offense with Tom Brady certainly didn’t hurt. He wanted to be in the right system and he found it and he will learn a lot from coach O’Brien.”

O’Brien worked with Brady as a member of the New England Patriots staff for five seasons prior to his arrival in Happy Valley. Senior QB Matt McGloin would enjoy a strong senior campaign under his direction in 2012, but O’Brien needed to find a long-term option who could immediately challenge for the job.

Hackenberg fit the bill.

However, before he fought his way to the top of the Nittany Lions depth chart, Hackenberg became the focus of a media firestorm surrounding that 2013 recruiting class. On July 23, 2012, the NCAA issued widespread sanctions against the university and football program as a result of the Jerry Sandusky sex abuse scandal.

From a $60 million fine and vacated Joe Paterno era victories to a postseason ban and scholarship restrictions, the penalties were severe. This development caused several college football prognosticators to discard Penn State as a potential powerhouse program for years, maybe even a decade, ahead.

Naturally, it’s a time that proved turbulent for committed recruits. Staring at a future with no bowl games and roster restrictions, some expected Hackenberg to jump ship.

Instead, he stood firm.

“At the end of the day, if there’s football at Penn State, I’m going to be there,” he told Mitch Sherman of ESPN.

His father, Erick Hackenberg, also articulated his son’s steadfast feelings toward a program under pressure.

“The building has crumbled. There are the ashes,” he told Sherman. “It’s time for the phoenix to rise out in some way, shape or form. It takes a special kid with a different mind frame to be able to step into that environment and accept the social pressure that comes with it.”

True to his word, Hackenberg continued with Penn State’s class through his final prep campaign. He attended the Nittany Lions final game of 2012, an overtime victory against Wisconsin that pushed the team to 8-4 in O’Brien’s debut season.

Normally that would be enough to send the squad to a quality bowl matchup. Instead, it marked the end of a fall marred by the aforementioned NCAA sanctions.

Hackenberg, unwavering in his loyalty to the school, knew his time was coming.

“I’m itching to get up there and start picking things up,” he told Sean Fitz of 247Sports on game day.

Hackenberg enrolled the following June and earned starting reps as a true freshman. His tremendous first season featured 2,955 yards and 20 touchdown tosses, and resulted in early hype about his NFL draft potential.

O’Brien bolted after that fall, returning to NFL as head coach of the Houston Texans. Hackenberg never managed to duplicate or exceed the success of 2013, throwing 28 total touchdowns and 21 interceptions in his final two seasons at Penn State.

Though he struggled as a sophomore (12 touchdowns, 15 interceptions), Hackenberg did finish that 2014 campaign with MVP honors in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl. It represented Penn State’s return to the postseason after a two-year ban.

Despite his on-field inconsistencies, Hackenberg provided a steady presence for a program ravaged by changes. He started all 38 games in his collegiate career, posting Penn State career passing records for yards (8,457), touchdowns (48) and completions (693).

The juxtaposition of how he performed under James Franklin versus efforts under O’Brien created quite an enigma for NFL scouts when Hackenberg declared early entree into the 2016 NFL draft.

He found a professional home in the second round when the New York Jets selected him with the No. 51 pick. Hackenberg didn’t play a down during his rookie regular season but moves toward the 2017 season in contention for the team’s starting job.

https://www.landof10.com/penn-state/penn-state-recruiting-rewind-nittany-lions-passing-leader-christian-hackenberg-high-school-prospect/amp

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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1 minute ago, 56mehl56 said:

And if Hack threw 3 passes and completed 2 of them last PS , everyone here would be saying buuuuuut the sample size is too small to say he's a 66% completion passer.

Just a comparison for all the people that say its not his fault its his rookie year, how can you expect him to do well.  Under 38% in back to back games from a 2nd round pick vs psquad opponents is pretty terrible.  Can he be much better this year?  Sure he can.

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