How the Jets really feel about Christian Hackenberg: A behind-the-scenes look at their plan

[Scott Dierking]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

The Mets suck and you have no faith in Christian Hackenberg.

What I love in the Hackenberg debate is the fervor that some have staked their claims in either the positive or negative, and how they seemingly react to every tweet or blurb that supports their fervor.

The digital age at its worst combined with sports fans that think they know too much. Toxic.

Heck, even Bitonti has turned to the anti prospect bias, which for him is a complete 180.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Everything the Jets do, is good.  

Everything the fans say, is wrong.

Except If the fans say something postive.  Then it's right and good and stuff.

[Jetsfan80]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

What I love in the Hackenberg debate is the fervor that some have staked their claims in either the positive or negative, and how they seemingly react to every tweet or blurb that supports their fervor.

If any of Hackenberg's reviews were overwhelmingly positive, you'd have a point.

But the fact remains no QB with his track record in college has EVER had a modicum of success in the pro game.  To be a good pro, Hackenberg would literally have to do something that's NEVER been done before.  It doesn't take much to "stake a claim" when those are the odds against him.  

We're talking about a guy who had games like these:

2013

• 37.1 % completions, 1 TD, 1 INT against Kent St.  
• 54.5 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Indiana

2014

• 52.2 %, 0 TD, 0 INT against UMASS
• 48.9 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Northwestern
• 41.4 %, 0 TD, 2 INT against Indiana

2015

• 51.9 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Buffalo
• 52.6 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Rutgers
• 52.6 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Army
• 53.8 %, 2 TD, 0 INT against Indiana
• 44.8 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Maryland

 

These are all bad teams he posted these completion percentages against.  Like....really bad.  Like, even worse than Penn State was during that 2013-15 period.  He couldn't crack 55 % in three chances against Indiana.  And that year he struggled against Kent State?  Yeah, that wasn't the year Kent went to a Bowl Game.  They were 4-8.  

Army in 2015?  2-10.  Yikes.  

[T0mShane]

22 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

What I love in the Hackenberg debate is the fervor that some have staked their claims in either the positive or negative, and how they seemingly react to every tweet or blurb that supports their fervor.

The digital age at its worst combined with sports fans that think they know too much. Toxic.

Heck, even Bitonti has turned to the anti prospect bias, which for him is a complete 180.

Youre mad at people for not having faith in so,thing entirely unseen and declaring their views invalid because they go with the evidence at hand. 

[Ohio State NY Jets fan]

The article is decent, especially good for womanish 

It's not a reach to believe that hack needs to improve confidence coming out of happy valley and if the coaches are working on building up the hack attack then that is great news, regardless of the outcome -

almost a feel good story from the NY daily news

Oh and the kid next year will be interested in good coaching too, it may help him declare for the draft

[RSJ]

9 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If any of Hackenberg's reviews were overwhelmingly positive, you'd have a point.

But the fact remains no QB with his track record in college has EVER had a modicum of success in the pro game.  To be a good pro, Hackenberg would literally have to do something that's NEVER been done before.  It doesn't take much to "stake a claim" when those are the odds against him.  

We're talking about a guy who had games like these:

2013

• 37.1 % completions, 1 TD, 1 INT against Kent St.  
• 54.5 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Indiana

2014

• 52.2 %, 0 TD, 0 INT against UMASS
• 48.9 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Northwestern
• 41.4 %, 0 TD, 2 INT against Indiana

2015

• 51.9 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Buffalo
• 52.6 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Rutgers
• 52.6 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Army
• 53.8 %, 2 TD, 0 INT against Indiana
• 44.8 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Maryland

 

These are all bad teams he posted these completion percentages against.  Like....really bad.  Like, even worse than Penn State was during that 2013-15 period.  He couldn't crack 55 % in three chances against Indiana.  And that year he struggled against Kent State?  Yeah, that wasn't the year Kent went to a Bowl Game.  They were 4-8.  

Army in 2015?  2-10.  Yikes.  

Hack also had the most career yards and TD's in school history, and the most passing yards in a single game in school history. Hack was pretty close to 60% (58%) freshman year. I am obviously not a scout - but I think if you were to scout Hackenberg you would extrapolate those numbers forward in a better setting than he had. The following two years we know what happened to that roster and the coaching. Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer only competed 59% of their college passes, among others. Matt Ryan's completion percentage was explained away by the fact that he played in a downfield passing attack at Boston College. Pretty sure he didnt have D Lineman blocking for him though. Fact is scouts can put too much emphasis on this stat as well and many QB's were over drafted because of the fluly system they were in or they were surrounded by superior talent. All we know is that extrapolated out Hack's numbers in a normal situation can be assumed to be higher. Also, Hack has the tools that only legit number one overall QB's have. That's why I feel like he was a pretty decent risk in the second round.

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, RSJ said:

Hack has the tools that only legit number one overall QB's have

In that he's 6'4" and can throw a football in a forward direction. Other than that, not so much.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, RSJ said:

Hack also had the most career yards and TD's in school history, and the most passing yards in a single game in school history. Hack was pretty close to 60% (58%) freshman year. I am obviously not a scout - but I think if you were to scout Hackenberg you would extrapolate those numbers forward in a better setting than he had. The following two years we know what happened to that roster and the coaching. Matt Ryan and Carson Palmer only competed 59% of their college passes, among others. Matt Ryan's completion percentage was explained away by the fact that he played in a downfield passing attack at Boston College. Pretty sure he didnt have D Lineman blocking for him though. Fact is scouts can put too much emphasis on this stat as well and many QB's were over drafted because of the fluly system they were in or they were surrounded by superior talent. All we know is that extrapolated out Hack's numbers in a normal situation can be assumed to be higher. Also, Hack has the tools that only legit number one overall QB's have. That's why I feel like he was a pretty decent risk in the second round.

 

If one of the best things you can say about a prospect is "Well, he ALMOST hit 60 % that one year!" you've got problems.  He needed to be about 65 % his entire career to make him worth a 1st or 2nd round pick, especially with some of the weak opponents he was facing.  

[RSJ]

7 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

In that he's 6'4" and can throw a football in a forward direction. Other than that, not so much.

He has one of the top 5 strongest arms in the NFL. Obviously you didnt watch him much in college. He had his accuracy issues in the short and intermediate game - but he can throw a dime 70 yards downfield as well. Consistently.

[varjet]

I agree that Hack's prospects are dubious, but he is the best hope to make the Jets' season interesting.  

So I encourage people being open-minded and giving him a chance.  I think it will take more than the preseason to really know where he and Macc stands.

I have a feeling I know where this is going, and it makes me sad and frustrated.  But for now, I am all eyes and ears, and will hope for the best.

[RSJ]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

If one of the best things you can say about a prospect is "Well, he ALMOST hit 60 % that one year!" you've got problems.  He needed to be about 65 % his entire career to make him worth a 1st or 2nd round pick, especially with some of the weak opponents he was facing.  

Again, judging him in that situation you need to look at the whole picture. My point is completion percentage can be overrated if looked at in a vacuum, which is what you were doing.

[T0mShane]

2 minutes ago, RSJ said:

He has one of the top 5 strongest arms in the NFL. Obviously you didnt watch him much in college. He had his accuracy issues in the short and intermediate game - but he can throw a dime 70 yards downfield as well.

You know whose arm strength makes Christian Hackenberg look like he has polio? Cardale Jones. 

[Scott Dierking]

34 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Youre mad at people for not having faith in so,thing entirely unseen and declaring their views invalid because they go with the evidence at hand. 

never said they were invalid. Just bemused at the fervor

[RSJ]

1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

You know whose arm strength makes Christian Hackenberg look like he has polio? Cardale Jones. 

Yeah it would not be smart to look at his arm strength in a vacuum either. It's not just downfield power, Hack can spin it anyplace on the field. Fact is neither of us know the outcome of this. Cardale has had his own issues, just as Hack does. It's going to depend on how hard Hack works and how he develops as to the outcome of this. Important to remember that he could still be playing in college this year.

[Spoot-Face]

45 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If any of Hackenberg's reviews were overwhelmingly positive, you'd have a point.

But the fact remains no QB with his track record in college has EVER had a modicum of success in the pro game.  To be a good pro, Hackenberg would literally have to do something that's NEVER been done before.  It doesn't take much to "stake a claim" when those are the odds against him.  

We're talking about a guy who had games like these:

2013

• 37.1 % completions, 1 TD, 1 INT against Kent St.  
• 54.5 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Indiana

2014

• 52.2 %, 0 TD, 0 INT against UMASS
• 48.9 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Northwestern
• 41.4 %, 0 TD, 2 INT against Indiana

2015

• 51.9 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Buffalo
• 52.6 %, 0 TD, 1 INT against Rutgers
• 52.6 %, 1 TD, 0 INT against Army
• 53.8 %, 2 TD, 0 INT against Indiana
• 44.8 %, 3 TD, 0 INT against Maryland

 

These are all bad teams he posted these completion percentages against.  Like....really bad.  Like, even worse than Penn State was during that 2013-15 period.  He couldn't crack 55 % in three chances against Indiana.  And that year he struggled against Kent State?  Yeah, that wasn't the year Kent went to a Bowl Game.  They were 4-8.  

Army in 2015?  2-10.  Yikes.  

Wow. I don't follow college football and never looked at any of his stats. He had games that bad?

[T0mShane]

17 minutes ago, RSJ said:

Yeah it would not be smart to look at his arm strength in a vacuum either. It's not just downfield power, Hack can spin it anyplace on the field. Fact is neither of us know the outcome of this. Cardale has had his own issues, just as Hack does. It's going to depend on how hard Hack works and how he develops as to the outcome of this. Important to remember that he could still be playing in college this year.

Arm strength is important, but it's used in the same way that an NBA prospect's vertical leap gets used. "He shot 12% from three, but he has a 53" vertical leap!" I have no doubt Hack is smart and nice and works hard, but it's extreeeeeemely hard to point to anything in his resume that should give anyone hope that he's the answer. It was easier to make a case for Tajh Boyd becoming a player in the league.

[CanadienJetsFan]

Once I saw that this was a Manish article, I didn't care reading it. Move on

[T0mShane]

23 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

never said they were invalid. Just bemused at the fervor

Why do you believe this fervor exists?

[RSJ]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Arm strength is important, but it's used in the same way that an NBA prospect's vertical leap gets used. "He shot 12% from three, but he has a 53" vertical leap!" I have no doubt Hack is smart and nice and works hard, but it's extreeeeeemely hard to point to anything in his resume that should give anyone hope that he's the answer. It was easier to make a case for Tajh Boyd becoming a player in the league.

I mean now you are just being ridiculous. Hack has the prototypical size, arm strength, delivery. He was the top recruit out of high school for a reason. Tajh Boyd was a disaster mechanically and most likely a horrible student if he went to Clemson. The Tajh Boyd game only works in backyard football and college football, not in the NFL.

The NFL and the NBA are two completely different situations. You can't even compare the two. 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, RSJ said:

I mean now you are just being ridiculous. Hack has the prototypical size, arm strength, delivery. He was the top recruit out of high school for a reason. Tajh Boyd was a disaster mechanically and most likely a horrible student if he went to Clemson. The Tajh Boyd game only works in backyard football and college football, not in the NFL.

The NFL and the NBA are two completely different situations. You can't even compare the two. 

Jimmy Clausen and Mitch Mustain were top recruits at one point, too. I wasn't comparing the NBA and NFL. Just pointing out that "arm strength" is nice, but it's nine miles away from being a determinant.

[Jetsfan80]

36 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

never said they were invalid. Just bemused at the fervor

The fervor makes sense, given that this pick would either show that Macc is a genius (extremely unlikely) or a complete buffoon (very likely).  So, yeah, it's kind of a big deal.  

[Jetsfan80]

26 minutes ago, Spoot-Face said:

Wow. I don't follow college football and never looked at any of his stats. He had games that bad?

 

Easy mistake to make.  Our GM completely ignored those numbers, evidently.  

[RSJ]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jimmy Clausen and Mitch Mustain were top recruits at one point, too. I wasn't comparing the NBA and NFL. Just pointing out that "arm strength" is nice, but it's nine miles away from being a determinant.

Yeah those are good points about Clausen and Mustain. Also, I already agreed with you that you can't look at arm strength in a vacuum. There is no single attribute or stat you can look at when projecting a QB into the NFL. But it is pretty smart to first check off the arm strength, size and throwing mechanics (release) box when judging a QB. Historical odds are in your favor that he will fail. But lets see what happens first. The kid deserves a chance to prove himself.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Jimmy Clausen and Mitch Mustain were top recruits at one point, too. I wasn't comparing the NBA and NFL. Just pointing out that "arm strength" is nice, but it's nine miles away from being a determinant.

Had their arm strength questioned at one point or another:  Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.  

[Jetsfan80]

Cannon:  Jeff George

Could throw 60 yards from his knees:  JaMarcus Russell

[Flushing Roots]

As long as Hack doesn't throw those "once a quarter Geno Smith pick sixes" I am okay with whatever he does.

[Spoot-Face]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Easy mistake to make.  Our GM completely ignored those numbers, evidently.  

I guess when Mac went to the college football QB store he just said: "Gimme the biggest one!" I wonder if he's overcompensating for something?

 

Serious note: Did Hack at least have as many games where he looked like a very good QB?

[RSJ]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Had their arm strength questioned at one point or another:  Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.  

Peyton had prototypical everything so I can't give you that one. Also, strong arms coming out of college. John Elway, Brett Favre, Dan Marino.........

Btw, looking at one thing in a vacuum doesnt work, no matter what that one thing is. If QB was easy to predict teams wouldn't miss every year. Not only do the teams that dont pick them miss - but even the teams that do pick them. If the team that did pick them knew he would be that good they wouldnt have waited that long to take them.

I know you guys hate it - but we are just going to have to wait and see on Hack.

[Spoot-Face]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Had their arm strength questioned at one point or another:  Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning.  

Weak arm, but BOY can he slap a man's ass like no one's business.

7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Cannon:  Jeff George

Could throw 60 yards from his knees:  JaMarcus Russell

Impressive, but I'm sure he's doing very different things on his knees nowadays. Codeine addiction ain't cheap, yo.

[T0mShane]

8 minutes ago, RSJ said:

Yeah those are good points about Clausen and Mustain. Also, I already agreed with you that you can't look at arm strength in a vacuum. There is no single attribute or stat you can look at when projecting a QB into the NFL. But it is pretty smart to first check off the arm strength, size and throwing mechanics (release) box when judging a QB. Historical odds are in your favor that he will fail. But lets see what happens first. The kid deserves a chance to prove himself.

Totally fair. It's just a frustrating thing because Hack's issues were so well-chronicled, the skepticism of his ability had reached a consensus in almost every corner of the draft community, and all the concerns about him seem to have been confirmed in the small sample. Our GM has now invested significant resources into Ryan Fitzpatrick and Hackenberg, and we're on a collision course with a top three pick next year. Assuming Hack looks like Hack, that same GM is going to pick the next QB coming off two catastrophic errors in judgement. 

[jgb]

8 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Totally fair. It's just a frustrating thing because Hack's issues were so well-chronicled, the skepticism of his ability had reached a consensus in almost every corner of the draft community, and all the concerns about him seem to have been confirmed in the small sample. Our GM has now invested significant resources into Ryan Fitzpatrick and Hackenberg, and we're on a collision course with a top three pick next year. Assuming Hack looks like Hack, that same GM is going to pick the next QB coming off two catastrophic errors in judgement. 

The good news is in the first round it seems like Mac just takes whoever is left at the top of Mel Kiper's Big Board. But apparently by the 2nd round he is already drunk.

[RSJ]

2 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Totally fair. It's just a frustrating thing because Hack's issues were so well-chronicled, the skepticism of his ability had reached a consensus in almost every corner of the draft community, and all the concerns about him seem to have been confirmed in the small sample. Our GM has now invested significant resources into Ryan Fitzpatrick and Hackenberg, and we're on a collision course with a top three pick next year. Assuming Hack looks like Hack, that same GM is going to pick the next QB coming off two catastrophic errors in judgement. 

If Hack shows no promise and the Jets are terrible this year, then I will be on here screaming for Sean Payton or John Gruden to come here and coach right along with you. That my friend is a promise. Maybe I am a hopeless optimist at this point. Afterall,  I am driving from CT to watch them Saturday. lol

[jetscrazey]

So McCown wins the QB job because no young QB can afford to be a part of this historically bad Jets offense for fear of getting his confidence damaged.  That's a new one.  We've seen a lot of bad Jets teams but nothing like this.  On the bright side, it also suggests getting Darnold or Rosen would also create some activity in free agency next year as they'll have to use some cap room to get a better o-line and skill players here again.

[Scott Dierking]

9 hours ago, T0mShane said:

Why do you believe this fervor exists?

Personal self esteem and and agenda bias. And some people (no names mentioned) just need a topic to attach their shingle to in a diatribe of silly and off-point conversations.

[T0mShane]

10 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Personal self esteem and and agenda bias. And some people (no names mentioned) just need a topic to attach their shingle to in a diatribe of silly and off-point conversations.

 

Every meteorologist: It's going to rain today. Every piece of available predictive data aligns with this prediction. 

 

Me: Wow, yeah, look at all the storm clouds, and rain drops are already coming down. Totally going to rain.

 

Penn State alum: That's your agenda bias. 

 

Me: What?

 

Penn State alum: Maybe that cloud is just sad because it lost a bunch of scholarships.