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**** TANKWATCH 2017 - THE HUNT FOR A QB ****

ZachEY

By ZachEY
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varjet

varjet

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36 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Other than Mo what veteran salaries is he stuck with large cap hits? Skrine & Forte will be gone. And he'd save 11 million cutting Mo with I believe an 8 million cap hit. So after trading Sheldon, and possibly cutting Kearse next offseason (5 million), Jets would be approximately 85/95 million dollars under the cap.

McClendon, Skrine and Kerley were kept/signed for this year, and the Jets are on the hook for their salaries this year.  

Given what we saw on Sunday, we were better off without them and with the money, IMHO.

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ZachEY

ZachEY

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Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

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MDL_JET

MDL_JET

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7 minutes ago, gEYno said:

Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

I don't know. Teams like the Giants, Saints, Bengals, and Chargers have to much talent to be discussed. They'll get their wins here and there. Bills are a wildcard. 

I think it's the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Bears and Colts unless Luck returns. 

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JoJoTownsell1

JoJoTownsell1

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13 minutes ago, gEYno said:

Lots of games to keep an eye on this week:

Thursday Night: Rams at 49ers -- Either 9ers get their first win, or Rams jump up to two, and likely out of contention early on.

Ravens at Jags -- Good that the Jags got one early win, but they're looking at 1-2 here.  They do have a bunch of winnable games coming up though.

Browns at Colts -- Someone gets their first win.  Good news either way!

Giants at Eagles -- Is it too soon to wonder if we need to start thinking about the Giants?

Dolphins at Jets -- Obviously

Broncos at Bills -- Bills likely to drop to 1-2 here

Saints at Panthers -- Drew Brees should be able to get them some wins, but they could drop to 0-3 here

Steelers at Bears -- Bears should drop to 0-3 here

Bengals at Packers -- Bengals should drop to 0-3 here

Chiefs at Chargers -- Chargers are my sleeper pick to stick around, and could go 0-3 here too

Lots of teams looking at an 0-3 start to the year, I would not be at all surprised if there are 8 of them.  The most likely to win actually may be the Jets.  Thoughts?

Chargers are only 3 point underdogs and jags are only 4 point underdogs. So there is hope for those two teams to pull out wins.

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BCJet

BCJet

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On 9/12/2017 at 2:43 PM, section314 said:

Don't think you're gonna have to worry about it.

Why do we think picking 3 is going to get us a QB in this draft?  At minimum one of the top 2 teams will need a QB, and that leaves the other team open for business based on the 100% certainty that the Jets will take a QB if one is available at 3.  

The best move at that point, is to offer a package including one of our 2nd round picks, to move from 3 to 2 - even if it costs us "a lot". 

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Sperm Edwards

Sperm Edwards

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Did anyone really think/hope we'd be the lone winless team (among the coalition of the lousy) after 2 weeks, and further believe it's indicative of anything by the time the season's ended? 

Even awful teams will often eke out 4-5 wins just from coin-toss wins vs. equally-futile teams, and lucky-timed injury matchups with better ones. The odds of only 1-2 teams ending up with 4 wins or fewer (the total that yielded the #1 pick in an outstanding 2004 draft class) is virtually nonexistent in any year. Almost any team finishing with 4 wins could have just as easily finished with 3 or 2 wins (or 5-6 wins) if the ball bounced a different way.

So it's too early to suggest this is some special year of mass ineptitude, the likes of which the NFL has never seen.

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Sperm Edwards

Sperm Edwards

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In 2004 Eli went #1 overall to (then) the Chargers. They finished a league-worst 4-12, as did 3 other teams (including the Giants). That is super-lucky; it really doesn't happen anymore as there's always a team with 1-3 wins (if not multiple such teams) every year of late.  And any team that won 4 could have just as easily won only 3 (if not 2 or 1). So there are always plenty of terrible teams to make a top-3 pick very competitive. 

- In 2016 there were teams with 1, 2, and 3 wins (plus another with 4) = 4 teams 4-12 or worse. Without even tanking we lucked our way into getting as many as 5 wins and pre-combine hype aside, in the end the only QB we missed out on was Trubisky (hardly a sure thing anyway, who shot up late, and certainly not some consensus #1 type prospect regardless of how he ultimately turns out). 

- In 2015, a pair of 3-win teams and a pair of 4-win teams = 4 teams 4-12 or worse in the Goff/Wentz/Lynch draft, also hardly considered a class of the ages back then. For a while Goff was projected to go only 7th overall, and maybe Wentz would go #1 but only by lack of better prospects that year, and Lynch eventually projected as high as 7-9 maybe. Online sites touted as many as 5 different prospects could go in round 1, at one time or another (including Hackenberg and Cook). So far the most successful of the lot went late in round 4.

- In 2014, a pair of 2, 3, and 4-win teams = 6 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2013, a 2-win and a 3-win team, but also five 4-win teams = 7 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2012, a pair of 2-win teams (with what would become a QB-less draft class) = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2011, a pair of 2-win teams plus a 3-win team and two 4-win teams = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

So 3 of the last 6 seasons saw a 2-win team fail to secure the #1 overall pick. A hapless, 3-win team would have only ended up with even the #2 pick twice in the last 6 years (one of those being the Manuel/Geno 2013 draft). So this year isn't so special in terms of bad teams. Besides, the whole thing with such a hyped/deep QB draft class is precisely that the QB talent isn't limited to just 1 or 2 prospects. 

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ZachEY

ZachEY

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1 hour ago, MDL_JET said:

I don't know. Teams like the Giants, Saints, Bengals, and Chargers have to much talent to be discussed. They'll get their wins here and there. Bills are a wildcard. 

I think it's the Jets, 49ers, Browns, Bears and Colts unless Luck returns. 

They will probably all be gone, but for now, they're all looking at 0-3.  

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ZachEY

ZachEY

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1 hour ago, Pac said:

yeah...  so how does the Jets winning this Sunday impact Tankapalooza?  Cause hate to break it to you but we're beating the fins.

While I bet you also said that about the Bills, I think there's an okay chance we win.  That said, they swept us last year, and we are undoubtedly not better than last year.

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ZachEY

ZachEY

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5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

In 2004 Eli went #1 overall to (then) the Chargers. They finished a league-worst 4-12, as did 3 other teams (including the Giants). That is super-lucky; it really doesn't happen anymore as there's always a team with 1-3 wins (if not multiple such teams) every year of late.  And any team that won 4 could have just as easily won only 3 (if not 2 or 1). So there are always plenty of terrible teams to make a top-3 pick very competitive. 

- In 2016 there were teams with 1, 2, and 3 wins (plus another with 4) = 4 teams 4-12 or worse. Without even tanking we lucked our way into getting as many as 5 wins and pre-combine hype aside, in the end the only QB we missed out on was Trubisky (hardly a sure thing anyway, who shot up late, and certainly not some consensus #1 type prospect regardless of how he ultimately turns out). 

- In 2015, a pair of 3-win teams and a pair of 4-win teams = 4 teams 4-12 or worse in the Goff/Wentz/Lynch draft, also hardly considered a class of the ages back then. For a while Goff was projected to go only 7th overall, and maybe Wentz would go #1 but only by lack of better prospects that year, and Lynch eventually projected as high as 7-9 maybe. Online sites touted as many as 5 different prospects could go in round 1, at one time or another (including Hackenberg and Cook). So far the most successful of the lot went late in round 4.

- In 2014, a pair of 2, 3, and 4-win teams = 6 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2013, a 2-win and a 3-win team, but also five 4-win teams = 7 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2012, a pair of 2-win teams (with what would become a QB-less draft class) = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

- In 2011, a pair of 2-win teams plus a 3-win team and two 4-win teams = 5 teams 4-12 or worse

So 3 of the last 6 seasons saw a 2-win team fail to secure the #1 overall pick. A hapless, 3-win team would have only ended up with even the #2 pick twice in the last 6 years (one of those being the Manuel/Geno 2013 draft). So this year isn't so special in terms of bad teams. Besides, the whole thing with such a hyped/deep QB draft class is precisely that the QB talent isn't limited to just 1 or 2 prospects. 

A lot of these bad teams start playing each other soon.  This week, we have two such match-ups.  Next week, we play JAX, Bengals v. Browns, even 49ers vs. Cardinals could be relevant.  Following week, we play the Browns, 49ers vs. Colts, Bills vs. Bengals, and Chargers vs. Giants.  So, yeah, plenty of wins to be had out there for teams performing poorly right now.

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Adoni Beast

Adoni Beast

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Its all about the next 3 weeks for us. We have to lose those. The jaguars is our biggest potential win. We're home and they're coming back from a London game. 

But, just think how bad we'll really be once injuries start kicking into our team. We'll probably end up 2-14, but hopefully everyone else is a game better. 

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flgreen

flgreen

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On 9/12/2017 at 11:26 AM, EM31 said:

Obviously the best best case is that we have the #1 and are coy about which of the QBs we favor.  It might be possible in such a case to BOTH get our guy AND pick up some additional picks along the way....

One can only dream... fap fap fap

No chance.  Bowles will name one of them starter in January 

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BigRy56

BigRy56

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If we want the top pick, we need to lost the next 3 games. There's no room for error here - there are a couple of really bad football teams ready to compete with us in SF and CHI.

I don't see Cleveland and Jacksonville as competing for a top pick. They both have enough talent to squeak out 4-5 wins.

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section314

section314

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1 hour ago, BCJet said:

Why do we think picking 3 is going to get us a QB in this draft?  At minimum one of the top 2 teams will need a QB, and that leaves the other team open for business based on the 100% certainty that the Jets will take a QB if one is available at 3.  

The best move at that point, is to offer a package including one of our 2nd round picks, to move from 3 to 2 - even if it costs us "a lot". 

We will not be picking 3. Think higher.:D

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flgreen

flgreen

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Just now, gEYno said:

Bowles won't be the coach of this team next year.  The question is if they're dumb enough to let Macc stick around.

Just my opinion.  Don't think Bowles deserves to be HC next year, but I think he might be.  I think his fate is in Macc's hands

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Gangrene

Gangrene

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I doubt the first or second pick in the draft will be traded unless Rosen or Darnold go into a dive this season.

We all agree, the 49'ers, the Jags, the Jets, the Bills are not trading out.

Here are five more teams that will likely not trade out....

The Browns have too many extra draft picks...I expect them still to draft a QB if in the top two spots, I don't see Kizer's play convincing them that he is the guy.

The Bengals will not trade out, given that Andy Dalton continues to take heat... I don't see them going all in on AJ McCarron.

Arizona; Ariens has not stopped talking about how they need a future qb, Carson Palmer's stock is plummeting.

The Colt's ; given Luck's injuries, do you really think they will turn down another golden goose QB opportunity?

The Saints; if it happens, that somehow they plummet, they are not turning down an opportunity to draft Drew Brees's replacement.

There are other surprise candidates to suck, eg the Giants or the Chargers that if somehow they ended up there I don't see them trading out.

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PS17

PS17

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3 hours ago, nycdan said:

Prediction: If four or more teams finish with 2 or less wins, we'll see a draft lottery by next season.  And I think it could happen.  A lot of teams are clearly not trying very hard.

 

2 hours ago, gEYno said:

They probably should do this.

 

The lottery has done little to discourage tanking in the NBA. I think it would have a similar non-effect in the NFL. 

Also, this is the only year I can remember where teams actually look like they're trying to be terrible.

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