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Lil Woody

Bowles has to go and he has to go right now.

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Just now, NYs Stepchild said:

Why do they have to be better? No own said anything about better.

Who is MCcown and Forte better than?

Are you drunk?  The whole post you quoted me in was about not playing younger players simply because they are younger, not a better player.

If you don't think McCown is better than Petty or Hackenberg right now, then more power too you.  

As far as Forte, the only RB that is young on the team is McGuire.... you think he is better than Forte or Powell?

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He is now a statistically proven bad coach and clearly the man for the job....to tank:

The math says New York Jets coach Todd Bowles made the wrong call by punting on fourth-and-8.

Don't take my word for it; here's Brian Burke, a senior analytics specialist at ESPN and a nationally-recognized expert:

"It was a mistake for the Jets to punt there," Burke said. "Their win probability [on our model] certainly did not go up based on the decision to punt.

"Their odds were very long either way. Their chances to win based on their options were:

Punt: 1.1 percent.

Go for it: 2.0 percent.

"In absolute terms, a difference of only .9 percent is small," Burke added. "But, however small their overall chance to win, the decision to punt cut it nearly in half."

The Jets had the ball at their 44 with four minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, trailing the Buffalo Bills by two scores -- 21-12, the eventual final score. On Monday, Bowles, said, "If we got a little closer, I might have went for it, but fourth-and-8 is a tough pill to swallow right there."

But it wasn't as tough as Bowles suggested, according to Burke.

"We calculated their 'break-even' conversion probability required to make going for it worth the risk was only 14 percent, and the league average conversion rate in similar situations is nearly 32 percent," he said. "This means it was should have been an obvious decision to go for it. No NFL offense, no matter how much they struggle, is that much worse than league average."

Obviously, Bowles didn't have the luxury of reaching out to an expert; he had to make a decision in about 30 seconds. This wasn't a game of Madden; it was real life with real consequences.

"You go by the feel or the pulse for the game and see how well we’re moving the ball or not moving the ball," he said. "You make calculated decisions."

This one didn't work. The Jets probably would've lost anyway -- it was a near certainty -- but it turned out to be the hot-button issue. On this one, the math says he blew it.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/71187/analytics-expert-says-jets-late-punt-an-obvious-mistake-and-explains-why

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21 minutes ago, Lil Woody said:

Proof is in his actions.  Not in the words spun by his agents to the tabloids.  We will see what kind of man he is trying to become.  But his past actions suggest he is a bum.  And it's way past time we stopped taking chances on other peoples garbage.  It almost never works out. This whole low risk, high reward...buy troubled players and give them a springboard approach was a major flaw in Tannenbaum's approach.  And when it does work, these reclamation projects want big money to stay and have no loyalty to the team who put in the work to help them resurrect their career.  See Santonio Holmes.

If sitting in your own feces drunk & passed out plastered all over the internet doesn't get you to change your ways than nothing will,lol.

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Just now, HawkeyeJet said:

Are you drunk?  The whole post you quoted me in was about not playing younger players simply because they are younger, not a better player.

If you don't think McCown is better than Petty or Hackenberg right now, then more power too you.  

As far as Forte, the only RB that is young on the team is McGuire.... you think he is better than Forte or Powell?

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

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1 minute ago, Lil Woody said:

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

For the record, I completely agree with your sentiment, and believe eventually any player that shows some modest potential should receive playing time over an aging stop gap vet they are competing against.  I'm just saying Week 2 isn't the time to do it, for reasons I've already stated.

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28 minutes ago, CanadaSteve said:

What's wrong with playing Kearse in the slot and letting ASJ play?  Those guys SHOULD be playing.

McCown I agree makes no sense, and neither does Forte.  I mean, I get you can't cut him because of the cost, but he could ride the pine.  UNLESS of course, someone who signs the cheques tells you to play the people who have the greatest amounts of zeroes on said cheques.

The hope is that McCown can warm up the WR/TE/RBs we do have so that when Petty and Hack play, we can see what we have.

We must be careful though, because Petty/Kearse and ASJ may be able to win a game or 2, which is not consistent with the mission.

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1 hour ago, dbatesman said:

Gotta give Maccccc a chance to pick his own coach

Like he picked his own QB?

And his own Safties?

Frankly, there is little to find optimism (long term) with the Macc+Bowles pairing.

I'd prefer to see a clean slate in 2018, with legitimate experienced professionals in both GM and HC roles

And specifically with the GM being hired by the Owner, and the HC being hired by (and reporting only to) the GM.

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3 minutes ago, Lil Woody said:

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

Do you think Bowles can go over to McCown on the sidelines and say, "hey, lets stop throwing to Kearse"?

Bowles has not improved his game management, has had lockerroom issues, failed to improve the defensive scheme and in general does not seem to be improving as a HC.  I think he deserves at least half the season, and will slowly integrate the younger players into the games as the season progresses.  I would expect Kerley and kearse to get most of the reps up until week 8 or so with hansen and steward slowing starting to take over for the remainder of the season.  

As for Forte, he looks like he is running in sand, but if we want any hope of moving him to a contender he needs to get 15+ touches for the next 3/4 weeks.  Plus, on the bright side, its probably better not to overuse Powell or McGuire as they get acclimated to being a big part of hte offense in 2018+ 

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Just now, HawkeyeJet said:

For the record, I completely agree with your sentiment, and believe eventually any player that shows some modest potential should receive playing time over an aging stop gap vet they are competing against.  I'm just saying Week 2 isn't the time to do it, for reasons I've already stated.

Cool. But imo the sooner we get rid of safety blanket Bowels, the sooner this problem will go away.  He's latching on to vets for his own selfish reasons and it has nothing to do with what is best for the players or the Jets moving forward. 

That is the reasons I want to move on. He does not share the same goals or direction as the franchise and he is going to actively work against what they are trying to do.  FWIW I'd do the same thing in his shoes. Self-preservation.  But I'm only interested in what is good for the Jets organization.

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2 minutes ago, varjet said:

We must be careful though, because Petty/Kearse and ASJ may be able to win a game or 2, which is not consistent with the mission.

I wouldn't be too concerned about Petty increasing our chances to win. 

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Just now, BCJet said:

Do you think Bowles can go over to McCown on the sidelines and say, "hey, lets stop throwing to Kearse"?

Bowles has not improved his game management, has had lockerroom issues, failed to improve the defensive scheme and in general does not seem to be improving as a HC.  I think he deserves at least half the season, and will slowly integrate the younger players into the games as the season progresses.  I would expect Kerley and kearse to get most of the reps up until week 8 or so with hansen and steward slowing starting to take over for the remainder of the season.  

As for Forte, he looks like he is running in sand, but if we want any hope of moving him to a contender he needs to get 15+ touches for the next 3/4 weeks.  Plus, on the bright side, its probably better not to overuse Powell or McGuire as they get acclimated to being a big part of hte offense in 2018+ 

No, but they can call plays where he isn't the primary read.  We can use him to clear out safeties, use him on rub routes, etc..  There are countless ways to manage a players usage.

I agree Bowels wouldn't know the first thing about it though.  I've seen enough from him to believe that he will never move on to the younger guys and that he hasn't "earned" another minute let alone a half of a season. It's a bad look for us if we sh*tcan him, and that miight be a good enough reason to keep stringing this along...but it's not the best decision. 

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26 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

Are you drunk?  The whole post you quoted me in was about not playing younger players simply because they are younger, not a better player.

If you don't think McCown is better than Petty or Hackenberg right now, then more power too you.  

As far as Forte, the only RB that is young on the team is McGuire.... you think he is better than Forte or Powell?

It was about playing young unknown talents over mediocre veterens who are safer not better, and certainly not more talented. If we were playing upper level talents over kids then go for it. Were talking about Jags.

No you're right there's no way Petty could put up 12 points on the Bills.

Powell may not be young but he's got a lot more left than Forte, and yes McGuire also could have dropped 2 passes and gained 2 yards per carry. 

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Bowles is the best coach for this franchise right now!

There is zero chance he outcoaches the opponent to sneak out a win or two.  In fact, he makes it even more difficult for an inferior roster to win any games at all.  And the Jets will be an underdog in every game this season...

Todd Bowles is perfect to lead this team to 2 wins or less.  Bring out the Billboards in week 15... but not before.

The #1 overall could entice Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, etc.

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17 minutes ago, RoadFan said:

Bowles is the best coach for this franchise right now!

There is zero chance he outcoaches the opponent to sneak out a win or two.  In fact, he makes it even more difficult for an inferior roster to win any games at all.  And the Jets will be an underdog in every game this season...

Todd Bowles is perfect to lead this team to 2 wins or less.  Bring out the Billboards in week 15... but not before.

The #1 overall could entice Jim Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Mike McCarthy, etc.

As of Week 1, this is the best plan.  The Jets need a new coach.   Macc may be able to survive neutered with a new boss that the HC also reports to.

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1 hour ago, Lil Woody said:

Proof is in his actions.  Not in the words spun by his agents to the tabloids.  We will see what kind of man he is trying to become.  But his past actions suggest he is a bum.  And it's way past time we stopped taking chances on other peoples garbage.  It almost never works out. This whole low risk, high reward...buy troubled players and give them a springboard approach was a major flaw in Tannenbaum's approach.  And when it does work, these reclamation projects want big money to stay and have no loyalty to the team who put in the work to help them resurrect their career.  See Santonio Holmes.

You're wrong on ASJ.  I'm not getting my info from "tabloids" and the info isn't being spun by his agents or anyone else.   He is a different guy than he used to be.  He's grown up.

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2 hours ago, Banks81 said:

The first bolded statement makes you lose all credibility.  ASJ has completely turned his life around and is doing everything it takes to become better player and man.  And no, he's not a bridge guy.  He's a guy we took a chance on that we'll likely sign long-term if he produces this year.   You should find another team to root for.  We have enough haters riding the d already. 

Your whole post proves you had no credibility in the first place. You have no idea if ASJ has turned his life around as there is no evidence for or against it YET. So far he has towed the line but lets see what happens until he actually plays a game okay? Or how he handles being on a team that is going to lose quite a lot of games. If he passes those tests THEN you can put him up for sainthood. Until then its your opinion. Stating your own opinion as fact shows YOUR lack of credibility. As for telling other guys to go root for another team you should just STFU when it comes to that. What right do you have to question anyone's fandom in the first place?

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2 hours ago, Lil Woody said:

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

Jermaine Kearse is 27. Reading this you'd think he was Josh McCown's great-grandfather.

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3 hours ago, Tinstar said:

Todd Bowles is a good HC, who happens to be in a terrible situation . For the foreseeable future he's going to be the brunt of every Jet bias right or wrong . He's a HC, so he can take it, but some of it has nothing to do with him and everything to do with the history of this franchise that he's trying to change . He may get fired, but he will have gotten fired doing things his way, and when that happens, you can sleep at night .

Sorry, can you elaborate on what makes him a good HC? I mean, seriously, can you point to one or two examples of how he was good at what he did? I can think of ten examples of bad coaching, but nary a one where I thought to myself "wow, he really out-coached the other guy" or anything close to that. 

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2 hours ago, Lil Woody said:

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

If he gets open, he should get the damn ball. What is the QB supposed to do, wait for a rookie to get open and take 10 sacks a game? 

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9 minutes ago, section314 said:

If he gets open, he should get the damn ball. What is the QB supposed to do, wait for a rookie to get open and take 10 sacks a game? 

+1

The biggest problem with Kearse (or any veteran on the Jets not named Leonard Williams, for that matter) appears to be an irrational infatuation with the youngest guys on because of the theoretically-longer career, and theoretically-untapped higher upside, that they'll surely have going forward. Let's see one of them beat out the great Jermaine Kearse for playing time before we start lamenting about playing multiple receivers with no NFL snaps to their names. I'm all for it if/when it occurs.

If Kearse is getting open and is productive, there's no reason he can't be on this team for another 3-5 seasons. Think Kearse can't improve beyond a 600-yard WR? Like the way Golden Tate reached his peak for Seattle, or the way Jimmy Graham's numbers dipped upon arrival there? Come on.

Eventually we're going to shift away from Josh McCown. Wouldn't it be nice to evaluate Petty (or Hackenberg, I suppose) with receivers on the field who actually know what they're doing? 

If we put too many first-year (if not outright rookie) starters out there at the same time, and make these kids the focus of the gameplan starting from week 1, then they'll learn little other than how to fail against players who actually know what they're doing.

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3 hours ago, gEYno said:

If it's Bowles fault entirely that McCown is the starter, why is it that McCown is on the team?

Because Bowles wanted a cop-out vet safety net and Macc knows Bowles needs one

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20 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Jermaine Kearse is 27. Reading this you'd think he was Josh McCown's great-grandfather.

I like Kearse and think that part of the trade was underrated. Seattle is going to miss him. I hope we keep him around.

He would make a very nice security blanket for a young QB but not a good first option for a 38 year old career backup.

McCown and Forte need to be the mentors they were meant to be. Kerley needs to show Ryder how to catch a punt and he could be useful on 4th and 8. 

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3 hours ago, Lil Woody said:

I think what is missing from the points you 2 are discussing is potential.  It's not just young v Old. Forte and McCown have no potential to improve, and we have Petty (if healthy) and McGuire who have some potential but are doing absolutely nothing.  Kearse won't improve as a player, but he's also not stopping Anderson, Hansen and Stewart from getting on the field.  I do hate that Kearse led the team in targets though.  That's the issue I have with him and how he's being used by Bowels.  It's not across the board where we have young talent being wasted because an older player is bottlenecking them, but it is happening at some important positions and it's happening in different ways. 

This team is so bad that even the reps for the young guys are basically worthless.  It looks more like sandlot on offense than an NFL offense.  

Petty is made of glass.  He will get his chance this year and he won't make it through the game.  Let Bowels embarrass Woody this year so we can be rid of him.   If the team is bad enough we'll get rid of Macc too.  

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4 hours ago, Bugg said:

No point to bringing in an interim to see him win a game or 2 on adrenaline and then 1. become the candidate and 2. fowl up the top pick. let this horror show play out. Need to see who the best guy is in January, whether it be someone who wants to take a pile of $ like Gruden or Cowher to take this debacle over. Or if there is some hot college coach or other candidate. 

Agreed. Let it ride. All the way to the #1 pick.

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4 hours ago, jetrider said:

Because Bowles wanted a cop-out vet safety net and Macc knows Bowles needs one

But Mac is not an idiot for giving him one?  Nor for having 2 draft picks be worse than him?  Nope, not Mac at all... He is, good, and everything he does is also good, even if the team sucks

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1 minute ago, T0mShane said:

You won't get a viable human coaching candidate to take a phone call if you fire Bowles right now. Like, Art Briles wouldn't even take your call

Disagree NFL coaching jobs aren't jobs at Burger King there are only 32 NFL teams many would like the challenge of coaching this team. 

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You can't hand a guy a roster built to lose then fire him after a week 1 nine point loss

WTF is wrong with you people

We have to avoid looking like a sh*t show if we want any Jr QBs to come out

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