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Sam Darnold will NOT Be a Top 5 Pick in the next NFL Draft


Warfish
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I guarantee it*.

Darnold is not as great a college QB as his proponents think, and others have already started to surpass him in hype and attention.

9 TD's and 7 INT's is not greatness at that level.  7 INT's is more than someone supposedly a "generational talent" shouldn't throw at USC in a full season.

Darnold is a sophomore at a great (read party) school in Southern California, where he is king of campus.  If he is not the de facto universal #1 prospect, he will go back to USC.  

Because he can.  Because the 2019 draft class isn't so chock full of QB's.  And because insurance will cover his fiscal risks.

Darnold wants to stay in Cali.  He's from Capistrano Beach, CA.  He plays at USC.  He's a sun-soaked Cali kid through and through.  He does not want to play in the rust belt, or the swamp of fetid New Jersey.  Don't think he doesn't know who Mark Sanchez is and how that played out.

If the 49'ers don't get the #1 pick, and Darnold is not heir choice as #1, he could easily stay in college.  His demeanor shows he doesn't like the "Darnold Jets Jersey" hype.

Darnold is already "old hype", like Watson before him.  People will spend all season, and then all lead-up-to-draft tearing down Darnold and his game.  And instead they'll talk up the newest hotnesses.

He won't win the Heisman.  He won't win a National title.  And he won't be the best QB in college.  His shadow of legend will fade before the draft, especially if he keeps throwing INT's trying to look like a super star instead of doing whats needed to BE a super star even if it's less flashy.

And even IF Darnold was everything his most dedicated supports think he is, and even if he is the defacto #1 overall pick, and even if the Jets wind up with that pick......do any of you REALLY think "I know better than everyone else" Macc is going to pick him?  Or do you think Macc will try and grow his legend and trade down, picking another QB, the QB only he knows better about, in a deep QB draft, and gathering more picks to build this low-talent roster?

Just wait folks.  Don't worry about the draft, it's ages from now, and so much can and will change between now and then.  

But I'm telling you now, Sam Darnold will almost assuredly NOT be the #1 overall pick of this next draft in 2018.  And he very well may not even be top 5.  Or in the draft at all.

You heard it here.

*Disclaimer:  Guarantee does nto represent a legally binding contract, and is intended for entertainment value only.  No warranty, express or implicit is implied via this post.  Anything can happen, and who the **** knows, maybe Darnold IS the man.  But he may not be.  We can't know now, and won;t know till early next year ffs.  So stop rooting against your team.

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3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

do any of you REALLY think "I know better than everyone else" Macc is going to pick him?  Or do you think Macc will try and grow his legend and trade down, picking another QB in a deep QB draft, and gathering more picks to build this low-talent roster?

That is how you think Maccagnan sees himself?  If that were the case, why were his two high first round picks ultimate no-brainer, can't miss prospects?

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3 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Elli Manning in his Junior year (after having already played 17 games in college) had 21Tds- 15 INts- I am sure he won't pan out. 

Phillip Rivers in his junior year had just 20tds- 10 Ints. 

Peyton Manning in his junior year had 20tds and 12 ints. Peyton never won a heisman and the QB that replaced him, Tee martin, took virtually the same team to a national title the year after Peyton went to the NFL. Therefore, Peyton won't be good

Jameis winston in his second year had 25 tds and 18 Ints. 

Meanwhile, Geno Smith in his final year in college at 42tds and 6 Ints. Manziel won a heisman. 

Using warfish logic, Geno and Manziel would be better draft choice than Peyton/elli/Rivers/Darnold. 

Guys, college football stats are relatively meaningless when evaluating a QB. Do i like some of his decisions this year? No. But that's part of his learning curve. When his teams season was on the line with 45 seconds left and no timeouts, Darnold managed to take the team 52 yards for the game tying FG. That is what you want to see, not inflated stats in a gimmicky offense where the QB makes 1 read. 

Nice cherry picked list, now go list all the OTHER QB's picked in picks 1-5 who failed.  Hint:  There are ALOT, and many looked better than Darnold in college.

You're in for alot of disappointment in the near future.  I feel for you.

But on the bright side, you COULD in fact still get what you want:  When the Jets finish 5-11 and pick 6th, and Darnold drops like a stone, we could still pick him as the 4th QB taken.

Then you can spend the next four years telling us how he'd be great.....if he only got a fair chance. 

With weapons.;)

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I don't disagree that there's always a chance Darnold stays especially considering this QB class and the fact that his year so far has been a little underwhelming but considering the hype it was tough to live up to it.  On the otherhand, I don't think the Jets or anyone else other than the 49ers picking #1 is going to be the reason is asinine.  

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9 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

College stats aren't meaningless, people just focus too much on td-int ratio when it's just one of many factors you have to consider that correlate with pro success like college starts, overall accuracy and accuracy over certain routes and yardage ranges, etc. 

Yes and no....

I think the Bucs didn't pay enough attention  to turnovers when selecting Jameis over Marcus.

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22 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

College stats aren't meaningless, people just focus too much on td-int ratio when it's just one of many factors you have to consider that correlate with pro success like college starts, overall accuracy and accuracy over certain routes and yardage ranges, etc. 

Completion percentage and games started are the most reliable. Statistically speaking most of the other conventional categories contain too much noise. YPA and team efficiency hold value as well but there are competing theories that they can be easily compromised by the system and/or opponents (i.e. Hawaii quarterbacks, playing in the SEC...etc.). I don't think any of the statisticians that franchises use when compiling this stuff rely too heavily in TD:INT.

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2 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Completion percentage and games started are the most reliable. Statistically speaking most of the other conventional categories contain too much noise. YPA and team efficiency hold value as well but there are competing theories that can be easily compromised by the system and/or opponents (i.e. Hawaii quarterbacks, playing in the SEC...etc.). I don't think any of the statisticians that franchises use when compiling this stuff rely too heavily in TD:INT.

Serious question, do the jets have a statistician and did Rex eat him on the way out? 

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I agree he may not come out

I agree it may be because of how awesome a senior year at USC taking ballroom dancing could be

I agree he may make a decision based on weather/lifestyle

I disagree on your issue with the INT's. Its really lazy thinking. Geno smith's TD:INT ratio his junior year was 31:7.  You have to look deeper

I see Darnold as a player that plays better as the game goes on, and is money at the end.  That is what you look for, that is what you want

 

from Ernie Accorsi's report on Eli:

He's big, never gets rattled.  Rallied his team from a 14-3 halftime deficit basically all by himself.  Led them on two successive third quarter drives to go ahead, 17-16.  The first touchdown, a 40-yard streak down the left sideline, he dropped the ball over the receiver's right shoulder.  Called the next touchdown pass himself, checking off to a 12-yard slant… Makes a lot of decisions on play calls at the line of scrimmage, but they ask too much of him.  They don't just let him play.  This is a guy you should just let play… When he's inaccurate, he's usually high, but rarely off target to either side… Plays smart and with complete confidence.  Doesn't scold his teammates, but lets them know when they line up wrong or run the wrong pattern… Threw three interceptions.  Two were his fault.  Trying to force something both times.  He could have run on one of them, a fourth down play.  He has a lot to learn.

 

 

 
Summary: I think he's the complete package.  He's not going to be a fast runner, but a little like Joe Montana, he has enough athletic ability to get out of trouble.  Remember how Archie ran?  In that department, Eli doesn't have the best genes, although I never timed mom Olivia in the 40.  But he has a feel for the pocket. 

Feels the rush.

Throws the ball, takes the hit, gets right back up… Has courage and poise.  In my opinion, most of all, he has that quality you can't define.  Call it magic…Peyton had much better talent around him at Tennessee.  But I honestly give this guy a chance to be better than his brother.  Eli doesn't get much help from the coaching staff.  If he comes out early, we should move up to take him.  These guys are rare, you know.
 
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Well unfortunately for Darnold, no prospect is going to be able to gauge where they would get picked by the deadline to declare.  While Darnold's interceptions are frustrating, they are not the result of inaccuracy or bad reads.  Just an inexperienced QB that needs a little pro coaching.  And while Rosen has fewer interceptions, his, IMO were from desperation and poor decisions.

And no one will know who the preference will be between Darnold and Rosen.  So I can't see either one staying in school if they aren't guaranteed to be the top pick.  This draft could easily see SF and the Chargers with the top 2 picks.  That would be just want the Billionaires club would want.  Making CA pro football relevant and have the top two QB prospects stay at home.

Dont worry the Jets can give up 3 years worth of picks to move up and take Mayfield, Rudolph, or Falk. Or we can just draft more defense and sign McCown to a 3- year extension.  Because Being mediocre is really important to Jets fans and ownership.

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5 hours ago, Warfish said:

Darnold wants to stay in Cali.  He's from Capistrano Beach, CA.  He plays at USC.  He's a sun-soaked Cali kid through and through.  He does not want to play in the rust belt, or the swamp of fetid New Jersey

Did you and Sam speak about this? How do you know these "facts"

 

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

If the 49'ers don't get the #1 pick, and Darnold is not heir choice as #1, he could easily stay in college

He would have to file for the draft (which means loosing NCAA eligibility) long before the combines and interviews and long before any team would assure him they were taking him.

 

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

He won't win the Heisman.  He won't win a National title.  And he won't be the best QB in college.

Heisman means nothing in NFL. Look at allthe Heisman winners that went undrafted.

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

 Don't worry about the draft, it's ages from now, and so much can and will change between now and then

On this, you are correct, anythingcan and I'm sure quite alot will happen between now and the draft.

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1 hour ago, Pcola said:

Well unfortunately for Darnold, no prospect is going to be able to gauge where they would get picked by the deadline to declare.  While Darnold's interceptions are frustrating, they are not the result of inaccuracy or bad reads.  Just an inexperienced QB that needs a little pro coaching.  And while Rosen has fewer interceptions, his, IMO were from desperation and poor decisions.

And no one will know who the preference will be between Darnold and Rosen.  So I can't see either one staying in school if they aren't guaranteed to be the top pick.  This draft could easily see SF and the Chargers with the top 2 picks.  That would be just want the Billionaires club would want.  Making CA pro football relevant and have the top two QB prospects stay at home.

Dont worry the Jets can give up 3 years worth of picks to move up and take Mayfield, Rudolph, or Falk. Or we can just draft more defense and sign McCown to a 3- year extension.  Because Being mediocre is really important to Jets fans and ownership.

Last year the deadline was January 16th

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5 hours ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

College stats aren't meaningless, people just focus too much on td-int ratio when it's just one of many factors you have to consider that correlate with pro success like college starts, overall accuracy and accuracy over certain routes and yardage ranges, etc. 

You need to watch to see that accuracy. The stats don't tell you how accurate a QB is. 

If a QB can navigate the pocket while reading the defense, make the right decisions and hit his man on the right shoulder then he's going 1st in the draft.

It doesn't matter if he has times where he tries to do to much or throws off balance. Scouts want to see what you can do when you're doing things right and how you react in big spots. 

They can coach you to be more conservative. They can't teach you how to be more aggressive. 

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