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Breer: The 2018 Veteran QB Market

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10 hours ago, AFJF said:

With so much talk about the college kids and focusing on the Jets, I had no idea Smith was going to hit FA along with Cousins.

He’s got five or six good years left in him and I’d happily watch him play those years for the Jets.

 

 

6 hours ago, AFJF said:

Gotcha...I skimmed the article and thiught it was regarding pending free agents.

I’d give up a mid-rounder for him and draft one.

There it is.

It only took 2 weeks but we already got posters excited about trading for Alex Smith next year.

Just awesome.  

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2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

There it is.

It only took 2 weeks but we already got posters excited about trading for Alex Smith next year.

Just awesome.  

Pretty sure I suggested it this offseason (or last) as well.  Solid QB.  Jets could use one of those.

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Just now, AFJF said:

Pretty sure I suggested it this offseason (or last) as well.  Solid QB.  Jets could use one of those.

If you're expecting Alex Smith to leave the Chiefs offense/weapons, come to the Jets, and look like the same guy, you aren't gonna have a fun time.

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7 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

If you're expecting Alex Smith to leave the Chiefs offense/weapons, come to the Jets, and look like the same guy, you aren't gonna have a fun time.

I disagree 

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3 hours ago, AFJF said:

I disagree 

what... I don't know if i have the resources to address this. What universe does Alex Smith get traded to the Jets (cause he ain't "picking" us), and suddenly play as good or better than he is now? He's largely been an above average game manager his whole career - who's never elevated his team's play. In fact, he's played with the means of the talent around him, his entire career. THIS is the first we've seen of him looking as good as he is -- and that's a function many, many things.

 

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4 hours ago, Mogglez said:

If you're expecting Alex Smith to leave the Chiefs offense/weapons, come to the Jets, and look like the same guy, you aren't gonna have a fun time.

Cause that Chiefs offense is loaded with weapons right?

 

If we signed a QB, like Smith or Garrapolo, we could use our draft picks to add a blue chip WR or OL.  

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42 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Cause that Chiefs offense is loaded with weapons right?

If we signed a QB, like Smith or Garrapolo, we could use our draft picks to add a blue chip WR or OL.  

Yeah. Pretty much it is. Leagues leading rusher. An all pro tight end. A game changing wide receiver. 

The Jets should find their own QB through the draft. Period. Giving massive guaranteed money to middling QBs is a waste of assets.  

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49 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Cause that Chiefs offense is loaded with weapons right?

 

If we signed a QB, like Smith or Garrapolo, we could use our draft picks to add a blue chip WR or OL.  

We win a couple games against bottom feeders -- and all of sudden people are talking about signing Alex Smith to 20mil and going all in?!?! WTF is going on around here??

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1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

Cause that Chiefs offense is loaded with weapons right?

 

If we signed a QB, like Smith or Garrapolo, we could use our draft picks to add a blue chip WR or OL.  

Yeah. That Chiefs offense is actually loaded with weapons, they have phenomenal coaching, and they have a great defense to compliment it.  Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, by themselves, are better than anything we've had on offense in the last 10 years.  You're delusional if you believe anything otherwise.  

A rookie WR or Lineman doesn't make us better than mediocre.  In a couple of weeks, after we've played the meat of our schedule, all of you #realfans will fall right off your cloud 9 high from beating the Dolphins and Jaguars and realize that we're not close to competing.  We're just the best "bad" team around.  

We're not competing next year.  We're not a potentially sneaky team this year.  We're not "better than people think".  We just played two teams who just happen to suck more than us.  The only reason Alex Smith would be a perfect fit for us is because he's mediocre without the pieces around him.  Just like this team.

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43 minutes ago, Paradis said:

We win a couple games against bottom feeders -- and all of sudden people are talking about signing Alex Smith to 20mil and going all in?!?! WTF is going on around here??

Out at a drinking function.  How has Falk looked tonight?  Saw the 13-10 score I think?

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2 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Out at a drinking function.  How has Falk looked tonight?  Saw the 13-10 score I think?

Oregon's D is bringing the heat. He had one drive with 3 NFL throws. The rest has been up and down. Threw a few balls behind his receivers. 

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4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Oregon's D is bringing the heat. He had one drive with 3 NFL throws. The rest has been up and down. Threw a few balls behind his receivers. 

Thanks.  I gotta catch up to him and Mayfield when I get home tonight.  Particularly Baker because of the upset.  Any insight on that guy too?

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47 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah. That Chiefs offense is actually loaded with weapons, they have phenomenal coaching, and they have a great defense to compliment it.  Tyreek Hill and Kareem Hunt, by themselves, are better than anything we've had on offense in the last 10 years.  You're delusional if you believe anything otherwise.  

A rookie WR or Lineman doesn't make us better than mediocre.  In a couple of weeks, after we've played the meat  I of our schedule, all of you #realfans will fall right off your cloud 9 high from beating the Dolphins and Jaguars and realize that we're not close to competing.  We're just the best "bad" team around.  

We're not competing next year.  We're not a potentially sneaky team this year.  We're not "better than people think".  We just played two teams who just happen to suck more than us.  The only reason Alex Smith would be a perfect fit for us is because he's mediocre without the pieces around him.  Just like this team.

The weaponz you're touting as the next big thing were all found in the third round or later.

Part of the reason they're doing well is the man under center throwing to them.  

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5 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Thanks.  I gotta catch up to him and Mayfield when I get home tonight.  Particularly Baker because of the upset.  Any insight on that guy too?

nope - i was on daddy duty. I have that one PVR'd for the same reason later

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4 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Falk came out of the half swinging. Looking good.

That TD throw was better than anything we've seen from McCown all season.

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On 10/5/2017 at 10:30 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

No doubt. It's worthwhile to find out if Petty is adequate as a backup. I'll allow that he isn't automatically adequate just because it's his 4th season. If they feel he isn't nearly as good as McCown - who belongs as a backup himself - then it's wise to see how much less.

They don't necessarily need to spend several million on a veteran just because they decide Petty or Hackenberg (or both) are unworthy of the #2 spot next year. Clemens, Moore, Daniel, and plenty of others hover around the $1m to $1.5m/year mark, and there are younger FA veterans as well. They can spot start, but won't endanger a rookie sitting because (in his first rookie summer) he's not already clearly better than the next Fitz/McCown I fear we'll add.

I'm fine with the 2018 depth: #1 draft pick - #2 $1m veteran - #3 winner between Hack/Petty. But they have to get one of the other two on the field to help make that judgment.

I get that they see them every day in practice and we don't, but c'mon not every QB plays as well as in practice when they know they can (and will) get hit. They're not helpless babies; each has started plenty of football games before. I'm not in favor of those two playing a combined half a season or less in 2017 and then committing 2/3 of our QB depth chart to them in 2018. Something like that could lead to starting a draft pick before he's ready as well, simply because they still have no confidence in either of the other two.

I think we mostly agree; McCown has to get off the field. Particularly if the rookie WRs aren't getting offensive snaps anyway.

Thank you...I've been posting that in multiple threads myself.  McCown has no business being on the field...at all.  He serves NO purpose, especially with veteran WR's getting the majority of the snaps.

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On 05/10/2017 at 7:03 PM, UntouchableCrew said:

I know drafting a rookie is a gamble but at least it's a cheap gamble.

Are people really confident in these FAs that they're worth the massive contracts they're going to demand? Kirk Cousins is probably going to get something in the neighborhood of 6 years 150+ million with 65 million guaranteed, locking us into him for years and years.

Meanwhile we can develop our own guy who could very well be much better.

The last thing I'm worried about is watching this team pinch pennies while they pass on proven QB's and only take a QB at the top of round one.  Then we get to watch Cousins ball out or Smith continue winning 70% of his games while the Jets wind up with another Mark Sanchez.  Get two and if they both pan out, you're in a good spot.

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1 hour ago, Greenseed4 said:

The weaponz you're touting as the next big thing were all found in the third round or later.

Part of the reason they're doing well is the man under center throwing to them.  

Not really, but you can keep telling yourself that to make yourself feel better about signing him next year.

Hill and Hunt are extraordinary talents that have thrived because of great coaching.  They, and that coaching staff, have done an even better job of making a very average to mediocre QB look decent.

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36 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I'd happily take a proven vet with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio over the past seven seasons.

 

 

Again, if you think that is what you're gonna get with Alex Smith here, you're not gonna have a ton of fun.

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2 hours ago, Paradis said:

We win a couple games against bottom feeders -- and all of sudden people are talking about signing Alex Smith to 20mil and going all in?!?! WTF is going on around here??

#RealFanz.

That's what's going on.

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

nope - i was on daddy duty. I have that one PVR'd for the same reason later

Cool, gimme your thoughts when you catch up because I'm sure you'll get there before me.  I'm not going to lie, I enjoy watching Mayfield.  I see a lot of Russell Wilson there.  The whole transfer of schools arch is pretty similar too.  I think the  drug free Johnny Manziel is the lazy comp.  Baker actually looks like he could fit into a pro style offense.  Truth be told, I think he's another out of this class that would do quite well in our WCO.

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4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Again, if you think that is what you're gonna get with Alex Smith here, you're not gonna have a ton of fun.

I don’t know what his exact stats will be but I’m not sure anyone else does either.  

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8 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Not really, but you can keep telling yourself that to make yourself feel better about signing him next year.

Hill and Hunt are extraordinary talents that have thrived because of great coaching.  They, and that coaching staff, have done an even better job of making a very average to mediocre QB look decent.

Have you seen Alex Smith 2017?

He is playing lights out. 

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8 minutes ago, AFJF said:

I don’t know what his exact stats will be but I’m not sure anyone else does either.  

You're right.  No one does.  However, his track record on teams with mediocre-bad talent is pretty damning and it's a the best thing you can go off of considering that we are, at best, a bad-mediocre team.  The worst thing you could do is set yourself up for disappointment by looking at the Chiefs situation compared to the Jets and expecting to get the same results.  

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5 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Have you seen Alex Smith 2017?

He is playing lights out. 

Yeah. 

I've seen the same game managing QB who couldn't (or wouldn't) throw the ball deep if he had a shotgun pointed at his head.  I see the same limitations I've seen going back to 2011, except his coaching staff has done a phenomenal job of compensating for them with deadly offensive weapons that the Jets don't come close to possessing.

If you think that Alex Smith would be putting up those numbers with our roster, you're beyond reason.

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9 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah. 

I've seen the same game managing QB who couldn't (or wouldn't) throw the ball deep if he had a shotgun pointed at his head.  I see the same limitations I've seen going back to 2011, except his coaching staff has done a phenomenal job of compensating for them with deadly offensive weapons that the Jets don't come close to possessing.

If you think that Alex Smith would be putting up those numbers with our roster, you're beyond reason.

Right. Except now he's throwing the deep ball, hence the deep threat (Hill) having game. He hasn't started taking deep shots like this until Mahommes started lighting it up in preseason...breathing down his neck

If he's available, and we are out of position to draft Darnold, Rosen, or Allen...(note: our current draft slot would be #17 if the season ended today), we would be better off with a "mediocre" vet than a mediocre rookie who can't take snaps under center. 

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13 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:

Right. Except now he's throwing the deep ball, hence the deep threat (Hill) having game. He hasn't started taking deep shots like this until Mahommes started lighting it up in preseason...breathing down his neck

If he's available, and we are out of position to draft Darnold, Rosen, or Allen...(note: our current draft slot would be #17 if the season ended today), we would be better off with a "mediocre" vet than a mediocre rookie who can't take snaps under center. 

Yeah nah, I'd be willing to bet that his ridiculous jump to 8.8 yards per attempt drops wayyyy back down to match up closer to his pathetic career average of 6.8, but whatever psychs you up for the dink and dunk phenom next year.

Even if you actually believe this ridiculous notion of Mahomes breathing down his neck, forcing him to suddenly care about taking chances, his career suggests that this is an outlier for the guy and isn't sustainable or repeatable with the same results.  This type of #positivethinking is what landed Fitzpatrick a 12 million dollar deal despite everyone except the #realfanz seeing the true Fitz for what he was, and look at how that turned out.

Also, stop putting Allen as a top 3 QB as if missing out on him is some sort of massive loss.  He f*cking blows chunks.  Missing out on that scrub would be a blessing.

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1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

Yeah nah, I'd be willing to bet that his ridiculous jump to 8.8 yards per attempt drops wayyyy back down to match up closer to his pathetic career average of 6.8, but whatever psychs you up for the dink and dunk phenom next year.

Even if you actually believe this ridiculous notion of Mahomes breathing down his neck, forcing him to suddenly care about taking chances, his career suggests that this is an outlier for the guy and isn't sustainable or repeatable with the same results.  This type of #positivethinking is what landed Fitzpatrick a 12 million dollar deal despite everyone except the #realfanz seeing the true Fitz for what he was, and look at how that turned out.

Also, stop putting Allen as a top 3 QB as if missing out on him is some sort of massive loss.  He f*cking blows chunks.  Missing out on that scrub would be a blessing

They picked Mahommes at #10. I think Alex Smith noticed.  

Maybe he didn't. Maybe it's just a coincidence that they lost Maclin, Charles, and Ware and all of a sudden Smith has the league best QB rating. Prolly because of Tyreek Hill, Albert Wilson, Chris Conley and Kelce. Amirite?! Weaponz, right? 

There are at least 26 teams with MORE weaponz. Your argument is a joke.

But that's cause you're not a #realfan, right? You just want to complain about the sad state of the team because our young roster is winning games. 

You want us to lose so we can can fit your agenda and draft Rosen, but guess what, if we are outside the top-5 we ain't getting Sam, or either of the Joshes.  Nobody should give a sh*t about your QB evals. 

Not just because you are stuck in 2016; when Rosen had six games worth of decent YouTube highlights and all Alex Smith did was lead his team to the playoffs. But because you're (1) discounting one of the most physically talented prospects (who plays in a pro style system, and has landed on every pundits' watch list) and (2) you're knocking Smith for being an accurate passer who "manages" games because he's careful with the ball, and last season he excelled at dinking-and-dunking--Newsflash: we run a dink-and-dunk offense.  

If we can't draft one of the top-3 draft prospects, perhaps we should look into getting a decent QB in free agency. 

Smith just happens to be one.  There are others. I imagine we'll explore those options as well.  If that's okay with you.  If not, perhaps you're the ridiculous delusional #nonfan. 

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