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Early projection of 2018 NFL draft order


Gas2No99

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37 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I've forgotten Josh Allen. He's super talented, physically is all I really know about him.

He is Jay Cutler"esque" all the physical tools but when you watch him he just seems to either not care or plays a little timid. He scares the hell out of me. Do not want as a JETS QB, which means thats who we will draft.

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39 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

Two QB's that have really caught my eye are Luke Falk and Baker Mayfield.  Here's why:

- With the offense Morton has shown Falk would fit because he has a fast release, he's
extremely accurate and enough arm strength to keep defenses honest.  Even though he's
in a gimmick offense he's been given enough reponsibility to adjust the play according
to the defense.  And finally his biggest "flaw" is he stays in the pocket too long because
he goes through his progressions looking for receivers (which most gimmick offense OB's
don't do)

- The biggest knock on Mayfield would be his height but with Morton coming from NO (Brees)
he shouldn't have a bias against him. Other than that Mayfield reminds me of Russell Wilson
with his mobility in and out of the pocket, arm strength, accuracy and "it" factor.  He
seems to have the ability to lift his team which was particularly on display when they
went into Ohio St. and beat them.  His performance also covers up for a defense that isn't
very good     

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47 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

Is this because he royally screwed the pooch with Hack? At this point I think he is more likely if not desperate to not do that again. I think he is likely to do whatever it takes to get a Starting level QB. So he will either over pay with draft picks or a deal for a FA QB. Classic over compensation on the brink of outright desperation. 

The qb is too risky.  Mac will prefer a FA and continue to try and find another David Carr. 

27 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

I think it’s a little of him holding out hope for his 2nd rounder, but we’ve also seen in past drafts in the early rounds that he isn’t willing to go up and get the player he wants. I really don’t think he should be making the decision either way. 

Macc is too much about roster depth.  I don't see them giving up ok picks, except maybe for Darnold. 

14 minutes ago, Stark said:

He is Jay Cutler"esque" all the physical tools but when you watch him he just seems to either not care or plays a little timid. He scares the hell out of me. Do not want as a JETS QB, which means thats who we will draft.

The Jets are not playing an offense that fits Josh Allen.  DArnold and Mayfield are better fits.  WCO, move ball around.  Rosen could do anything, but he should scare people

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1 minute ago, varjet said:

The qb is too risky.  Mac will prefer a FA and continue to try and find another David Carr. 

Macc is too much about roster depth.  I don't see them giving up ok picks, except maybe for Darnold. 

The Jets are not playing an offense that fits Josh Allen.  DArnold and Mayfield are better fits.  WCO, move ball around.  Rosen could do anything, but he should scare people

I agree that Darnold and Mayfield are good fits for WC offense, and I also agree that Rosen could play in any system. Rosen doesn't really scare me at all, as long as his shoulder is not injured again this year he should be fine.

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39 minutes ago, Gastineau Lives said:

OT, DE, WR, RB never bust, I guess.

Whats your point exactly?

I clearly stated that you cant project that the first QB be better then one picked later.  Then added the fact that you get an additional player picked in the top 10.

Do other positions bust - again, yes.  Just as I said that if you argument is that picking higher allows us to control our own destiny, that is true.  

So what are you saying exactly, other then wishing that the team lost games on purpose which is no different then yelling at the sky when it rains

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1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Spot on. 

I blame the whole "Fantasy Football" thing for two things:

1. Making once-dedicated "Team fans" into more generic "NFL fans".  Guys who care as much about how the QB of the Lions do as they do how the QB of the Jets do because somethign something fantasy team points.

2. Making fans into obsessive draft-heads.  To be fair, fantasy is only part of the blame here, the other is the massive over-commercialization of amateur (i.e. college) sports.   What was supposed to be something kids do as part of becoming adults as a side activity to their education has become a massive industry of exploitation and commercialism.  Because the NFL is too cheap to have it's own minor league system, they get to milk the college players for talent the same way schools milk them for money.

Add the two above issues to a desperate fanbase, and there you go.  The Draft > The Season if the season appears to be anything less than a Super Bowl.

It's why every jets forum I've been on has banished the overt draft-heads to a draft forum, because otherwise they will spam the main forum everywhere they can, making every thread a draft thread. 

Even in week 1.

Frankly, because Max is so hands off, there are alot of folks who get away with draft threads on the main forum that really belong (especially at this stage of the season) in the draft forum.  The Draft obsessives have it pretty good here at JN.

Max, if true then please become more hands on :)  For Pete sake, I just placed one poster on iggy who has been spamming every thread I read with draft angst.  I think he might be a troll who is proud of his neg rep status.  We're 3-2, damn it.  I don't mind a draft reference or two but please PM the spammers off to the draft forum.    

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1 hour ago, Gastineau Lives said:

This is true. But if you had to lay odds on which QB's would be the best ones with the surest chance of success, what would those look like? Can you live with a Baker Mayfield or a Luke Falk or Lamarr Jackson or a Mason Rudolph if you build a good enough team around them? I'm honestly asking because you are knowledgeable about these things and I respect your opinion.

Why ask this question?  Seriously!  Unless you're a gambling addict and totally out of control you don't bet w/o knowing what you're doing.  

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29 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

LOL, this thread is hilarious. We have some real statisticians on this board for sure. Even this post, you realize that your "evidence" completely contradicts your own point right? You just showed how you can get 13 starting QB's out of 4 picks while the other 19 were found in the other 220 picks. 

The fact that you are comparing 4 to 220 and the outcome is as close as it is proves the point that it is MUCH easier to find a starting QB within the top 4 picks than it is in the other 220. 

Aw, you're cute.

Did you actually read my post? It's okay, I understand reading is hard for some.

My main point was this: But this idea that you can only land a starting caliber QB if you're in the top 5 just doesn't match the numbers..

I think if you go back and read you'll see my point was that it's very possible to find a QB after. No where did I say you had the SAME or better odds. 

My point, is that not having a top 4 is not the death sentence people want you to think it is. All this "Sigh, same old Jets for drafting well and winning games and not getting that 1st pick!" is silly. 

OF COURSE if you pick higher you should get the more talented guys. But it's entirely possible to find winners AFTER that. And most teams have. That's all it shows.

 

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38 minutes ago, BigO said:

I like Huckleberry better so when I watch it again for the 24th time he'll be saying I'll be your Huckleberry. Sounds more interesting  -  then bang ? right between the eyeballs. 

Next year we need to do this to Brady and Belicheat. Not this year. I want one of those top 3 QB's. We'll be your Huckleberry.....Bang ? Bang ? 

Script says Huckleberry and that term is accurate for that usage.

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8 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Whats your point exactly?

I clearly stated that you cant project that the first QB be better then one picked later.  Then added the fact that you get an additional player picked in the top 10.

Do other positions bust - again, yes.  Just as I said that if you argument is that picking higher allows us to control our own destiny, that is true.  

So what are you saying exactly, other then wishing that the team lost games on purpose which is no different then yelling at the sky when it rains

You can repeat the same thing over and over again and it still doesn't become true. It only shows your lack of a real argument. 

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Saw this from Kiper a minute ago.

This 2018 quarterback class for the NFL draft could be special. I have five QBs in my top 25 overall, and -- it's early -- but I could see six going in the first round next April. The caveat there is that a few are underclassmen and could return to school. My top three right now: USC's Sam Darnold, UCLA's Josh Rosen and Wyoming's Josh Allen.

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13 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

Yea but I think the Bills could if they wanted to, trade up into the top 5 - I believe they've got a lot of extra picks to play with.

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2 minutes ago, peebag said:

Yea but I think the Bills could if they wanted to, trade up into the top 5 - I believe they've got a lot of extra picks to play with.

The Jets pick at six or seven will blow away a lot of what the Bills can offer since their 1 looks like it’ll be mid-20’s.

Also, If Tyrod keeps playing like this, do they still go QB?

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23 minutes ago, AFJF said:

The Jets pick at six or seven will blow away a lot of what the Bills can offer since their 1 looks like it’ll be mid-20’s.

Also, If Tyrod keeps playing like this, do they still go QB?

Jill's are ending up in the top 10 , watch . Tyrod is trash. They're gonna have ammo for a trade up

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3 hours ago, BCJet said:

Dont forget Big Ben - 3rd Qb taken in a "Great QB Draft" at pick 11

Its actually depressing coming on this board and seeing actual fans who honestly believe its possible to lose games on purpose.  Could Mac force Bowles to start Hackenberg, sure - and that would like appease 2% of the fans. While doing the following:

1.  Putting hackenberg and the others at risk to be injured if he isnt prepared with protections, etc.

2.  Ensure that the rest of the league, who Mac may need to have hire him at some point, thinks he is a complete idiot

3.  Stunt the development of the young players who have spent the last 15-20 years as winners

4.  Still not ensure the top pick

You guys who think the players can lose on purpose, arent the ones who are essentially betting their career, earnings potential, family etc on this.  None of Mac, Bowles, Hugh Jackson, Kyle Shanahan, or any of the other front office or HCs in the league are trying to lose games.

Who the hell wants or thinks the players or coaches will lose on purpose? Anyone with a brain knows the players and coaches need play to win now, for their own careers and don't give a sh*te about draft picks. I think us fans that wanted to go 1-15 rather than a "hard fought and gritty" 5-11 wanted no McCown, No Kerley, no vet QB so Petty or Hack has to start. No Kearse.

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13 hours ago, AFJF said:

Cool....give up whatever you have to give to get in the top three and grab a QB.

A few still viewed as top talents by NFL evaluators according to this today from Albert Breer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will be taking Quenton Nelson at 6.

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2 minutes ago, Brady's a catcher said:

Who the hell wants or thinks the players or coaches will lose on purpose? Anyone with a brain knows the players and coaches need play to win now, for their own careers and don't give a sh*te about draft picks. I think us fans that wanted to go 1-15 rather than a "hard fought and gritty" 5-11 wanted no McCown, No Kerley, no vet QB so Petty or Hack has to start. No Kearse.

No kerley is one thing.  But playing Hack literally puts the players at risk.  Did you see his ability to manage blocking assignments against the Giants?  How could Bowles or Mac in good conscience put him out there?

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

Two QB's that have really caught my eye are Luke Falk and Baker Mayfield.  Here's why:

- With the offense Morton has shown Falk would fit because he has a fast release, he's
extremely accurate and enough arm strength to keep defenses honest.  Even though he's
in a gimmick offense he's been given enough reponsibility to adjust the play according
to the defense.  And finally his biggest "flaw" is he stays in the pocket too long because
he goes through his progressions looking for receivers (which most gimmick offense OB's
don't do)

- The biggest knock on Mayfield would be his height but with Morton coming from NO (Brees)
he shouldn't have a bias against him. Other than that Mayfield reminds me of Russell Wilson
with his mobility in and out of the pocket, arm strength, accuracy and "it" factor.  He
seems to have the ability to lift his team which was particularly on display when they
went into Ohio St. and beat them.  His performance also covers up for a defense that isn't
very good     

I like Mayfield... haven't see much of Falk, but hoping to watch more of him now that he seems to be in the mix. Mayfield gets compared to Manziel, but I think he's going to make a much better pro then Manziel. I know he made a stupid judgement with planting the flag, but he doesn't seem to have the same real immature stunts that Manziel pulls. I think he's got a much better head on his shoulders. He can learn from the planting backlash. I think he's got it when I watch him play, just as you've mentioned. I wouldn't be disappointed with drafting him as long as Morton is still here and he becomes anywhere as good as Brees...

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2 hours ago, Gastineau Lives said:

I've forgotten Josh Allen. He's super talented, physically is all I really know about him.

There you go.

He's a waste of a draft pick.  Small school Hackenberg.  Unfortunately I can't find any tape of his performance against Oregon which was so bad, that he decided to delete Twitter off of his phone because he couldn't handle the criticism he was getting.

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4 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

There you go.

He's a waste of a draft pick.  Small school Hackenberg.  Unfortunately I can't find any tape of his performance against Oregon which was so bad, that he decided to delete Twitter off of his phone because he couldn't handle the criticism he was getting.

Definitely been "stained" by coming up small against Iowa & Oregon

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13 minutes ago, 68JET11 said:

I like Mayfield... haven't see much of Falk, but hoping to watch more of him now that he seems to be in the mix. Mayfield gets compared to Manziel, but I think he's going to make a much better pro then Manziel. I know he made a stupid judgement with planting the flag, but he doesn't seem to have the same real immature stunts that Manziel pulls. I think he's got a much better head on his shoulders. He can learn from the planting backlash. I think he's got it when I watch him play, just as you've mentioned. I wouldn't be disappointed with drafting him as long as Morton is still here and he becomes anywhere as good as Brees...

Google the USC / Wash St game and you'll see Falk outplay Darnold

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I think there's a small vocal disillusioned minority here who want the team to actually 'tank'. That's not going to happen.

The rest of us are divided. On one hand, you have the fans who want to see the Jets win at all costs. The draft situation will sort itself out later. 'You can find a QB' anywhere' crowd.

The other fans, myself included, want to see the team make strides - specifically the young players. But we think winning games with a stop gap one year QB is setting the franchise back long term. Yes, we might be in position to draft a QB in the middle of the first round. Yes - we could trade up to grab our guy (most likely giving up most of this year's draft (and our 1st round pick next year). But we'd rather not have to do either of those things. A 4-12 season where our young guys are coming on (and one of our young QBs looks competent when eventually given the opportunity) is a huge win in my eyes. A 7-9 season where we mortgage our future to move up in the draft or end up giving some QB $25M in free agency- not so much.

I've rooted for wins all my life, no matter what the cost, and it where has it gotten the franchise? I'd rather see this team on the clock next April with the QB they want still on the board over winning ugly October games vs Cleveland.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

I think there's a small vocal disillusioned minority here who want the team to actually 'tank'. That's not going to happen.

The rest of us are divided. On one hand, you have the fans who want to see the Jets win at all costs. The draft situation will sort itself out later. 'You can find a QB' anywhere' crowd.

The other fans, myself included, want to see the team make strides - specifically the young players. But we think winning games with a stop gap one year QB is setting the franchise back long term. Yes, we might be in position to draft a QB in the middle of the first round. Yes - we could trade up to grab our guy (most likely giving up most of this year's draft (and our 1st round pick next year). But we'd rather not have to do either of those things. A 4-12 season where our young guys are coming on (and one of our young QBs looks competent when eventually given the opportunity) is a huge win in my eyes. A 7-9 season where we mortgage our future to move up in the draft or end up giving some QB $25M in free agency- not so much.

I've rooted for wins all my life, no matter what the cost, and it where has it gotten the franchise? I'd rather see this team on the clock next April with the QB they want still on the board over winning ugly October games vs Cleveland.

 

 

if there was some magic draft pick where if you suck and draft a QB(or nay player) they were guaranteed to be great then I think people may embrace tanking but it's ludicrous to root for a team to tank when the #1 overall pick can suck and a 6th rounder can become the greatest of all time.  good teams w/ good talent evaluators will find players whether they draft #1 or #32, bad teams will find a way to screw it up drafting at the top.  the only think I care about is do we have the right people running our team?  I think that answer is still TBD but if the answer is no then a #1 pick will not change us. 

all teams win some ugly games, it was ugly at Cleveland in the 1st half.  Cle should have been up on us by more than 2 scores but they allowed us to stay in it and in the 2nd half started to roll.  we also beat what looks like a pretty good Jags team that has been crushing some other teams we thought were good.  who knows where this season takes us? we may end up 3-13? we could be 9-7? we don't know but we only get 16 reg season games a year and I am rooting for a win in every one of them.  I will worry about the draft in April when I'm flipping around the TC waiting for our pick to come up.

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41 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

His fans will go ballistic when I say this but Mayfield reminds of of Sanchez.  Looks like him, same number, similar size, seems to have a similar personality.

I won't go ballistic but his make-up and game experience are quite different. The guy walked on at 2 different schools and won the starting job. Couple that with his experience in simply having played more games and the Sanchez comparison falls a little short. Also factor in the fact that he had the guts to leave one program and go to another without the any promises speaks loads about his character. The guy has guts and that gunslinger mentality that you want in a starting QB. I know there are questions about his height etc but I think with the right QB coach and circumstance Mayfield can excel in the NFL. Will it be with the Jets? I wouldn't be upset if they drafted him but don't think they will unless he lasts until the 2nd round.

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15 hours ago, Gas2No99 said:

Jets, in a manner only they can do, are giving new meaning to the term Pick 6: Williams, Adams, . . . . Rosen?

We've had "The Best player in the Draft" fall to us TWICE @ 6, so WHICH QB drops to 6?

" ..so WHICH QB drops to 6? "... NOT the one we need   :(

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I don't see it with Falk. He's smart and accurate but he's a statue without a strong arm which is kind of a tough combo. I think he could be effective in the NFL for the right team but I don't think he's a top tier guy.

Josh Allen has Mac written all over him. Guy wasn't good enough in HS to get any legit D1 offers until the 11th hour, goes to Wyomning, gets hyped up because of his physical tools, promptly stinks against the only two legit teams he's played (Iowa, Oregon.) Defenders will point out that basically all of his weapons and best offensive lineman from last year are gone but I just don't see any evidence that's he's actually good at playing quarterback... After the Hack debacle I don't see how we can roll the dice on another massive project.

If we're picking 6th and Darnold and Rosen are gone I think you cross your fingers and take Mayfield in the 2nd.

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15 hours ago, MDL_JET said:

If that's how it worked out, I actually don't think the Jets would be in such bad position. Aside from the Browns, they could trade up with just about anybody in front of them if they really wanted to move. From the Niners to the Giants, I think they'd all be interested in getting more picks to build their roster. 

 

not so sure about the niners or the giaints.  the niners didn't go qb last draft and it's looking more and more that mcadoodoo is going to ease ELIte out.  The giaints will be lucky to win 5.

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