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Bowles and Mac won't go after Kirk Cousins bec low expectations is a godsend for them

Jetsbb

By Jetsbb
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Jetsbb

Jetsbb

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Jets are 4-5 last in the division and Bowles continues to make inane in game decisions that blow it for them in the 4th quarter when coaching makes the real difference. Yet here we are praising Bowles and company for how great they are doing. I remember a time the fan base wanted to lynch Mangini after going 9-7 with Favre. Oh yea Mangini was then fired. The QB of Bowles dream would be a Mark Sanchez who would really lower expectations. He could go 7-9, 8-8 and keep cashing those paychecks. Raise expectations with a franchise QB and then Bowles deficiencies would become really apparent.

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Maxman

Maxman

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49 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

Jets are 4-5 last in the division and Bowles continues to make inane in game decisions that blow it for them in the 4th quarter when coaching makes the real difference. Yet here we are praising Bowles and company for how great they are doing. I remember a time the fan base wanted to lynch Mangini after going 9-7 with Favre. Oh yea Mangini was then fired. The QB of Bowles dream would be a Mark Sanchez who would really lower expectations. He could go 7-9, 8-8 and keep cashing those paychecks. Raise expectations with a franchise QB and then Bowles deficiencies would become really apparent.

Bowles doesn't pick the players so if he wants Cousins or not, it isn't up to him.

Low expectations are great. But you only get to have them for a short time. If the expectations don't improve they will all be out of jobs.

So they will want a QB next off-season.

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BurnleyJet

BurnleyJet

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Low expectations for this season perhaps, next year the Jets Must get a real QB or both are gone! It's Cousins, Alex Smith or Draft. There will be no BAP in the Draft if they don't sign Kirk it will be a QB.

Personally Cousins to Denver makes to much sense, not to happen in my mind. Baker Mayfield for me.

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JetFaninMI

JetFaninMI

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If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl I could see them trading Smith. If they don't I don't see them handing it to a younger QB. Reid wants that ring. It's the only thing missing from his legacy and winning a Super Bowl would top it all off. If they don't win I could see them keeping Smith for one more run and making some changes to allow it. Smith has a big cap number though and a lot of changes would have to be made to keep him. All of Smith's stats are up this year and the Chiefs despite getting jobbed with those terrible penalties in the Raiders game are looking pretty good. This article outlines it nicely:

The Chiefs didn’t even plan for THIS Alex Smith

By JHodes

@HodesJesse on Oct 11, 2017, 2:15pm CDT 107

usa-today-10340386.0.jpg
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
 

From the FanPosts -Joel

Before I get into the weeds, let me preface this post by letting you know that I usually don’t put together or discuss the off-season cap picture until later in the year. But 2017 has been different, and things have just gotten too out of hand early on in this unbelievable season. The Chiefs are throwing the deep ball. We are hanging 30 points on every opponent. And did I mention, Alex Smith has been elite? sh*t is getting weird I tell you! And the weirdest part of all?

 

 

Not even the Chiefs as an organization were expecting it.

 

The New Alex Smith

 

Heading into the 2017 season, the writing was on the wall for Alex Smith. The Kansas City Chiefs had just traded up in the draft to select a QB in the first round- something they hadn’t done in over 30 years. It was time. I mean after all…they knew what they had in Alex Smith. A good but not elite QB who could win regular season games and put you in a good position to lose in the playoffs. Additionally, he was due $20.6M in 2018 with the ability to save $17M by cutting him before the season. The Patrick Mahomes era had essentially begun, and the city was ready to embrace the next franchise QB after watching his rocket arm drop jaws in the preseason.

 

But then Week 1 happened. And then week 2. And 3. And 4. And after a 42 point effort against one of the top Defenses in the NFL, it became official. The "new Alex" might just be here to stay.

 

For those of you who think Alex always had this in him, props to you. But you are also lying to yourself a bit. After all, Alex Smith was everything you could ask for out of a leader, game manager, and winner. But never were there ever signs that showed us the type of change that would have occurred in 2017. And although stats don’t show us everything, they paint a pretty damn clear picture on this subject:

 

 

 

2013-2016

 

2017

 

YPG

 

222.4

 

278.2 (5th)

 

Completion %

 

64.5

 

76.6 (1st)

 

Y/A

 

7

 

8.8 (1st)

 

AY/A

 

7.2

 

10.2 (1st)

 

Rating

 

92.2

 

125.8 (1st)

 

TDPG

 

1.25

 

2.2 (3rd)

 

300 Yard Gs

 

3

 

2

 

 

 

So how long is this "new Alex" here to stay? And how on earth could we end up cutting or trading him if he continues to throw the ball downfield, score points, and maybe even win playoff games?

 

The answer is…we can’t. And even though the Chiefs weren’t expecting this, we do have some options heading into the 2018 season. Sadly, it just might come at the expense of some of the household names in Kansas City.

 

2018 Salary Cap

 

Heading into the 2018 season, the Chiefs have some big decisions to make. Currently (per spotrac), the Chiefs are at an estimated $8.4M OVER the cap for next season (which happens to be the 2nd worst in the NFL).

 

Luckily, 2018 isn’t nearly as bad for unrestricted free agents as 2017 was, and the only decisions they will have to make are on the following key players:

 

DT- Bennie Logan, P- Dustin Colquitt, G- Zach Fulton, WR- Albert Wilson, FB- Anthony Sherman, CB- Philip Gaines, WR- De’Anthony Thomas

 

Now this may seem like a lot of players, but nearly all of them can be signed to reasonable deals or let walk without a big hit to the Chiefs. So relative to most FA years, we can go ahead and say the 2018 offseason is pretty "quiet" for these type of roster decisions.

 

The big decisions, however, come with the cuts that may need to be made…

 

Making Room for Alex Smith

 

There are a few scenarios that the can play out this year that involve Alex Smith. If he continues to perform at a near elite level and the Chiefs were to win a playoff game, I just cannot see the organization parting ways with him. And I will be transparent in saying: this is an entire 180 to what I had believed heading into 2017.

 

But how on earth will the Chiefs be able to take on a $20.6M cap hit for Alex while also paying Houston $20.6? Well, luckily, the Chiefs have their fair share of players who are extremely cuttable next offseason.

 

In fact, here are the players who could save us over $1M that have a small share of their cap going to dead money:

 

Player

 

Pos

 

Age

 

2018 Cap

 

2018 Dead

 

2018 Savings

 

Alex Smith

 

QB

 

34

 

$20,600,000

 

-$3,600,000

 

$17,000,000

 

Dee Ford

 

OLB

 

27

 

$8,718,000

 

 

 

$8,718,000

 

Derrick Johnson

 

ILB

 

35

 

$9,750,000

 

-$1,750,000

 

$8,000,000

 

Tamba Hali

 

OLB

 

34

 

$8,583,334

 

-$1,583,334

 

$7,000,000

 

Allen Bailey

 

DE

 

29

 

$8,000,000

 

-$2,000,000

 

$6,000,000

 

Ron Parker

 

S

 

31

 

$7,000,000

 

-$2,000,000

 

$5,000,000

 

Demetrius Harris

 

TE

 

27

 

$2,200,000

 

-$200,000

 

$2,000,000

 

Spencer Ware

 

RB

 

26

 

$2,083,334

 

-$333,334

 

$1,750,000

 

Charcandrick West

 

RB

 

27

 

$2,083,334

 

-$333,334

 

$1,750,000

 

Frank Zombo

 

OLB

 

31

 

$1,276,668

 

-$166,668

 

$1,110,000

 

Mitch Morse

 

C

 

26

 

$1,486,890

 

-$414,651

 

$1,072,239

 

Age= age heading into 2018

 

Total Potential Savings

 

$59,400,239

 

Total Potential Savings w/ Alex Smith

 

$42,400,239

 

Clear Restructures/Cuts

 

$21,750,000

 

 

 

As you can see from the numbers above, the Chiefs have the potential to clear $59.4M of cap space for 2018 by cutting all of the players I listed. Now this clearly won’t happen, so I have added players in bold for those that I 100% expect to be cut or restructured significantly. (Keep in mind I am just treating Spencer Ware/Charcandrick West as the same since they both have equivilant contracts. One will go, two may go, but for now I just went with Spencer). Taking the "clear cuts" into account, the Chiefs would go from $8.4M over the cap, to roughly $13.4M under the cap by cutting these five players.

Will $13.4M be enough to fill the roster and re-sign FAs? Maybe. But probably not. So what does this mean if it isn’t enough?

Well guys, it looks like Brett Veach will have to make his first giant decision, with a few clear options:

 

 

1. Trade Alex Smith to load up on draft picks and clear up roster space

 

2. Cut Dee Ford and/or Derrick Johnson and continue to pay out Alex Smith’s 2018 cap figure

 

3. Cut those listed as "clear cuts" and re-negotiate DJ and Dee’s deals

 

 

 

But hell, at least "it’s one of them good problems", right?

As you can see the Chiefs would have to make significant cuts to keep Smith. I could see them restructure guys as the article points out but saving some 17 mil in cap space is pretty significant. It all depends on winning this year for me. I think if they come close like getting to the Super Bowl and losing they will make those changes and keep Smith. If they win it Smith will most likely be traded and they will load up on picks to support Mahomes and go from there. Of course Smith could totally implode over the final games this season and his trade value would plummet. It will be interesting to keep an eye on it and we will get to see this Chiefs team up close pretty soon. Winning the Super Bowl is the key here and Reid wants that ring. Is Alex Smith the guy to deliver it? So far this season it looks like he may be.

 Wouldn't it be awesome if home field was at stake for the Patriots in the final week of the season and the Jets were able to take it from them? That would be poetic justice IMO. It will be very interesting to see how it all shakes out.

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Freemanm

Freemanm

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8 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Jets are 4-5 last in the division and Bowles continues to make inane in game decisions that blow it for them in the 4th quarter when coaching makes the real difference. Yet here we are praising Bowles and company for how great they are doing. I remember a time the fan base wanted to lynch Mangini after going 9-7 with Favre. Oh yea Mangini was then fired. The QB of Bowles dream would be a Mark Sanchez who would really lower expectations. He could go 7-9, 8-8 and keep cashing those paychecks. Raise expectations with a franchise QB and then Bowles deficiencies would become really apparent.

I've said all along that Bowles sucks. We need to hire Gruden and stick with him. Morton would stay as well if we brought Gruden in, so at least there would be some continuity. Then when we do get a good QB he can be properly developed. Rogers is absolutely god awful and needs to go. 

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Jetster

Jetster

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Hey I have an idea, let's let this play out at the end of the season. There has never been a better chance for the Jets to find a starting QB than 2018. The last 2 & 1/2 years they could only find Fitz & McCown. While no one knows who might be available, indications are showing you might see Cousins, Alex Smith, Brees? With 90 million & 3 draft picks in the 1st 100 in 2018, the Jets would be a better team with ANY OF THESE 3. 

Josh McCown was 2-23 before coming to the Jets. He's 4-5 & could easily have been 7-2 or at least 6-3. McCown isn't playing with Zeke Elliott, Julio Jones or Gronkowski, so what that tells me is Morton & Bates have literally been MIRACLE workers on offense. It tells me that if we replace him in this offensive system with a guy that can make even QUICKER decisions with even more accuracy our Oline would look EVEN BETTER. 

Starting QBs don't grow on trees. Even years ago when the Cardinals went after Carson Palmer who I believe to be at a level than below Cousins/Smith/Brees the Cards transformed into a top 10 team for a few years. The problem for us Jet fans is that we've been witnessing a combination of horrible offensive coaching & total ineptitude at QB for so long we forgot what real offense looks like. Macc was right & I was wrong. I wanted to tank, throw Petty or Hack in & let the chips fall where they may. So despite my dismay in seeing McCown named the starter, I'm seeing a QB that actually knows how to play in this WCO, can take a snap under center or shotgun, can adjust blocking schemes, and in turn has helped the entire offense, WRs, RBs, Oline learn how to operate it. Now, when you do replace McCown, you have every other part of your offense know there roles. They did it right & are proving it.

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NoBowles

NoBowles

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8 hours ago, Maxman said:

Bowles doesn't pick the players so if he wants Cousins or not, it isn't up to him.

Just to play devils advocate, when it came to Fitz, it did seem to me that Bowles did have at least a major say in picking his QB. Do you really think if Bowles went to Mac and said, we did a big evaluation on him, and we don't think he fits what we want to do, Mac has enough authority to ignore him and sign Cousins anyway? Not trying to argue, just trying to have a discussion.

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ScarletKnight89

ScarletKnight89

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Posted
6 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

Is Washington really going to let Cousins walk? Wouldn't they try to tag and trade instead?

Is Cousins worth the money and giving up a pick that could be used for our future QB in the draft? 

Tagging him at that price is insane. They should just be trying to sign him to a long term deal if they were smart. If they let him walk, the Jets should be looking to sign him.

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RESNewYork

RESNewYork

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Posted
5 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Tagging him at that price is insane. They should just be trying to sign him to a long term deal if they were smart. If they let him walk, the Jets should be looking to sign him.

Agree but does Washington let him walk without trying to get some compensation?

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jack48

jack48

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Posted
13 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

There's a difference in going 9-7 with Brett Favre ( a season where you were 8-3 at one point) and being 4-5 with Josh McCown and a team that everyone was saying might be one of the worst rosters of all time.

I am not sure Buffalo is a good team.  Lets see what happens.  I want to see them beat a good team.  If they can't, I will still have my doubts about bowles.

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Apache 51

Apache 51

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Posted
3 hours ago, JetFaninMI said:

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl I could see them trading Smith. If they don't I don't see them handing it to a younger QB. Reid wants that ring. It's the only thing missing from his legacy and winning a Super Bowl would top it all off. If they don't win I could see them keeping Smith for one more run and making some changes to allow it. Smith has a big cap number though and a lot of changes would have to be made to keep him. All of Smith's stats are up this year and the Chiefs despite getting jobbed with those terrible penalties in the Raiders game are looking pretty good. This article outlines it nicely:

The Chiefs didn’t even plan for THIS Alex Smith

By JHodes

@HodesJesse on Oct 11, 2017, 2:15pm CDT 107

usa-today-10340386.0.jpg
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
 

ing to see how it all shakes out.

So close yet so far.......IMG_0974.JPG

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ScarletKnight89

ScarletKnight89

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Posted
4 minutes ago, jack48 said:

I am not sure Buffalo is a good team.  Lets see what happens.  I want to see them beat a good team.  If they can't, I will still have my doubts about bowles.

Idk if Buffalo is good or not either. But for me the biggest reason for my optimism in regards to Bowles and Maac is that everyone picked this team to be really bad and they are clearly not.

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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Posted
10 hours ago, Spoot-Face said:

If low expectations keep Macc from giving $30 million to Kirk Cousins, I'd be okay with that.

Just as long as they don't give that $30 million to Josh McCown.

Just wait until they give Cousins $30 mil only to find out that Cousins is meh and expectations remain low anway.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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Posted
11 hours ago, Jetsbb said:

Jets are 4-5 last in the division and Bowles continues to make inane in game decisions that blow it for them in the 4th quarter when coaching makes the real difference. Yet here we are praising Bowles and company for how great they are doing. I remember a time the fan base wanted to lynch Mangini after going 9-7 with Favre. Oh yea Mangini was then fired. The QB of Bowles dream would be a Mark Sanchez who would really lower expectations. He could go 7-9, 8-8 and keep cashing those paychecks. Raise expectations with a franchise QB and then Bowles deficiencies would become really apparent.

That is one of the dumbest things i have ever read.

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