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In Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, NFL teams could see shades of Russell Wilson, Brett Favre

 
 
 
 
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Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield has become both the Heisman Trophy favorite and a potential first-round NFL draft pick. (Brett Deering/Getty Images)

The three-pronged quarterback extravaganza at the top of the 2018 NFL draft has not unfolded as planned. Southern California’s Sam Darnold has made an array of both NFL throws and head-slap interceptions, and he has sent signals he will consider returning to college. Josh Allen remains a wild card because of the competition he faces at Wyoming and the offensive line he plays behind, and if anything, he has regressed. Josh Rosen has flashed brilliance for UCLA, especially on intermediate throws, but has also been prone to interceptions and is now hurt, again.

But the most significant change in the 2018 quarterback prospect derby may be the performance of a fourth passer, forcing his way into the conversation as a potential first-round pick. Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield has emerged not only as the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy, but also as a quarterback who could land in the first round in April.

Mayfield, overlooked entering the year because of his size and the system in which he plays, has barged into first-round consideration and up draft boards. He makes up for his height — he’s listed as 6-foot-1 — with surprising arm strength, unmatched production, off-the-charts intangibles and athleticism suited for the direction NFL offense is headed.

“His game is not supposed to mix,” said Fox analyst Joel Klatt, who was in the broadcast booth for Mayfield’s 598-yard performance Saturday against Oklahoma State. “Normally, you get a guy that is such a good player outside the structure of the offense and a good improviser, normally those players are not as efficient. Usually, you’re either a gunslinger or you’re efficient. For some reason, this kid has married the two together in a way that is really unique.”

Pro Football Focus has graded Mayfield as its best NFL quarterback prospect for the past two years. Mayfield, per its tracking, has made the lowest percentage of missed throws and grades at an elite level on accuracy on deep throws.

Mayfield is hurt slightly by Oklahoma’s offense, which features few tight-window, NFL-style throws. And Big 12 defenses tend to sit back in coverage, which allows Mayfield to indulge one of his weaknesses — holding the ball too long. But as much as PFF analyst Steve Palazzolo wanted to downgrade Mayfield, he kept seeing play after play on film that supported Mayfield.

“We try to be so data-driven and trust our numbers and all that stuff,” Palazzolo said. “The gut is, he’s just not a guy I want to doubt.”

NFL evaluators will likely have little variance in how they grade Darnold, Rosen and Allen. Klatt predicted scouts and executives would be split, but that Mayfield’s rise up draft boards could mimic that of Patrick Mahomes, a uniquely gifted passer whom the Chiefs traded up to take with the 10th pick. Mayfield may not be seen universally as a surefire prospect, but if enough teams become enamored, he could be plucked early.

“I could see those type of guys falling in love with Baker, and those guys spent time around [Brett] Favre,” Klatt said. “They seek Baker’s ability to improvise and play with unnatural confidence, and they see Favre. That’s what Andy Reid saw in Mahomes, so he moved up and got him. The Brett Favre tree of coaches, the [former Packers coach Mike] Holmgren tree, those ones that will love Baker Mayfield.”

Mayfield’s arm strength, often a presumed weakness because of his size, is actually an asset. “When I watch his tape, you see back-foot throws that go 55, 60 yards in the air,” Klatt said, and he easily makes out-route passes to the wide side of the field. Mayfield can generate power on even those throws from awkward, unconventional positions. If a traditional pocket quarterback throws like a pitcher, Klatt said, then Mayfield has the footwork and body control to throw like an infielder.

Mayfield’s best comparison, including in some uncanny ways, might be Russell Wilson. They’re both the same body type. Mayfield is listed at 6-1, 220 pounds, but probably scrapes 6 feet. Wilson is 5-11, 215 pounds. Both have thick, powerful legs, which they use to extend plays and shake off lunging pass rushers. They escape the pocket in similar fashion, scrambling backward in an attempt to throw downfield. They both launch gorgeous deep balls with accuracy.

“I love the Russell Wilson comparison,” Klatt said.

Beyond physical comparisons, Mayfield and Wilson share intangible traits and similar college arcs. Wilson was renowned for his leadership and was elected a captain at Wisconsin after transferring. Mayfield is renowned for his leadership and was elected a captain at Oklahoma after transferring. Each became the face of a powerhouse program after entering as an outsider.

“There’s not a better leader in college football than Baker Mayfield,” Oklahoma defensive end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo said earlier this season. “And you can quote me on that. That guy, look, I’ll follow him anywhere.”

“They have the persona that can walk into a locker room and immediately get guys to follow them,” Klatt said. “That type of leadership is rare.”

In college, Mayfield’s production is undeniable. Including his freshman season at Texas Tech, Mayfield has passed for more than 13,000 yards and 116 touchdowns. This season, Mayfield has completed 71.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 28 touchdowns with five interceptions, averaging 358.4 yards per game.

Against archrival Oklahoma State, which boasted one of the best defenses in the Big 12, Mayfield completed 24 of 36 passes for a school-record 598 yards and five touchdowns, leading the Sooners to a 62-52 victory. Palazzolo, the Pro Football Focus analyst who has charted every snap of Mayfield’s career, said it was not even one of his standout games, from a grading perspective.

In previous years, it would have been easy to dismiss Mayfield. But the instant success of Wilson, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff has eased the stigma attached to quarterbacks who are either relatively small or come from a spread offense. If anything, the NFL may be searching for quarterbacks who, like Mayfield, can make plays on the run, either by design or when defenses break down.

The Eagles’ Carson Wentz played in a pro-style offense in college at North Dakota State. This season, he has excelled running run-pass options and other wrinkles typically associated with the college game, so much that some Denver Broncos defenders called Philadelphia’s scheme, admiringly, a “college offense.”

Mayfield may be the next quarterback in that mold. “It would not shock me at all if he is a starter really early in his career for a team making a playoff push,” Klatt said. He didn’t start the season as a top NFL prospect, but Mayfield is making his way there.

Read more from The Post:

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‘We are going to lose with class’: Penn State’s James Franklin chases players for postgame handshake

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4 hours ago, Paradis said:

what am i, your girlfriend? Go look up your own f*cking Mayfield highlights.

Like i got time for that, and for what purpose? To show some clown who wants to whimsically apply his logic to ONE player, and not ANOTHER?  post your email bro, and we can skip to the part where I email you dick-pics....   20%?!?!, lol, i picked a number out of thin air to make a point, I forgot to calibrate for cognitive density of the audience. Your boy has even less NFL throws on tape than Mayfield, but hey, let's not get in the way of your stidham campaign. Back to you defending his wholly NFL franchise projection--

 

 

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13 hours ago, legler82 said:

This line is funny to me; comes across a CYA type of statement.  

Well, I don't care if Mayfield at worst flames out of the league like Manziel or at best becomes serviceable journey man back-up like Colt McCoy, his current NFL projection is based on meaningless and inflated stats.

BTW if you are good at evaluating the position, 20% is more than enough.  I'd settle for 1% from Mayfield.

If you watch a lot of college football, arent you able to look past the stats and see a QB in Mayfield who has the arm strength (not stafford but certainly more then Darnold) to play in the NFL, but who also has the ability to move in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, and then throwing accurately once the play breaks down?  Because ive watched his games this year and that leaps off the screen.

NFL QBs biggest issue is how they deal with the rush.  Either you are tall and accurate like brady/ben to stand in and make your throw or you are mobile like Brees/Wilson where you can keep your eyes downfield and find an open WR.

I see mayfield and mahomes similarly and both seem to have the fearlessness to not drop their eyes to the rush.  I simply dont think the type of offense baker plays in is an issue.

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If you watch this clip closely you'll notice, much like our defense, Baker Mayfield has pro potential. I believe the wig toss is was a high quality NFL type throw you see every Sunday.

 

(he's not my #1 option going into the offseason but I would be 100% behind the pick if Darnold, Rosen, and Cousins are not options)

 

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Baker Mayfield is going to be a very good Franchise level QB...

But....There's close to no chance the Jets can get him.  There are simply too many teams that need a QB that will be drafting ahead of us.

Moreover, every team that needs a QB currently understand what we do..if you like a guy trade whatever it takes to get him.  Because of their draft position it's going to be tough to beat out a team ahead of us for the trade opportunity - just too many teams to jump.

 

 

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2 hours ago, BCJet said:

If you watch a lot of college football, arent you able to look past the stats and see a QB in Mayfield who has the arm strength (not stafford but certainly more then Darnold) to play in the NFL, but who also has the ability to move in the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, and then throwing accurately once the play breaks down?  Because ive watched his games this year and that leaps off the screen.

NFL QBs biggest issue is how they deal with the rush.  Either you are tall and accurate like brady/ben to stand in and make your throw or you are mobile like Brees/Wilson where you can keep your eyes downfield and find an open WR.

I see mayfield and mahomes similarly and both seem to have the fearlessness to not drop their eyes to the rush.  I simply dont think the type of offense baker plays in is an issue.

Ugh...RIF (Reading Is Fundamental) guys.  FOR THE LAST TIME I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH MAYFIELD'S ARM!!!  I'm struggling to find examples of him making high quality NFL type throws.  This is mostly a product of the offense he runs.

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1 hour ago, FidelioJet said:

Baker Mayfield is going to be a very good Franchise level QB...

But....There's close to no chance the Jets can get him.  There are simply too many teams that need a QB that will be drafting ahead of us.

Moreover, every team that needs a QB currently understand what we do..if you like a guy trade whatever it takes to get him.  Because of their draft position it's going to be tough to beat out a team ahead of us for the trade opportunity - just too many teams to jump.

I don't think Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield/Jackson go 1-2-3-4 and I don't believe the teams holding those picks will select them. I could see the Bears/49ers/Colts/Browns and Tampa all look to trade down if a QB is on the board when they make their selection. 

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26 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I don't think Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield/Jackson go 1-2-3-4 and I don't believe the teams holding those picks will select them. I could see the Bears/49ers/Colts/Browns and Tampa all look to trade down if a QB is on the board when they make their selection. 

agreed, but the teams in front of the Jets (and there will be more than 4 looking for QB's) will have a higher 1st and therefor be in a much better position to trade up to get their guy.

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This is what I mean When I say that draft position DOES matter.  How can it not matter?  The Jets desperately need a QB and are going to have to leapfrog several teams to get a top one in the 2018 draft so the higher the pick is, the less teams they have to leapfrog and the more ammunition they'll have to get in front of the remaining teams. Yes, a higher pick doesn't guarantee anything, but there's only a few players considered ELITE every year and the Jets should have made sure that they put themselves in the best position to draft an elite QB.  Winning 5-6 meaningless games and picking 10th-12th instead of picking 3rd-4th makes a big difference, and the Jets will feel that difference when the top three QB's in the 2018 draft are gone by the time they pick.  

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14 minutes ago, FidelioJet said:

agreed, but the teams in front of the Jets (and there will be more than 4 looking for QB's) will have a higher 1st and therefor be in a much better position to trade up to get their guy.

Buffalo is an interesting team because they have 2 firsts and 2 seconds this year so they could look to jump up. However there is also a question as to how far are the Bills willing to trade up for either Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield, do they feel like a lot of us that Mayfield/Jackson/Roudolph/Allen/Stidham are all sort of lumped together in terms of risk vs reward and would rather retain their picks.

Since Free Agency is prior to the draft I expect a few pieces to be sorted out:

Kirk Cousins

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith

Drew Brees

Case Keenum

Sam Bradford (however I don't know if he'll sign before the draft)

Blake Bortles

Eli Manning

could all be on the move this offseason, if the consensus is that QBs 3-7 are all on a similar level I could see teams signing a vet and willing to sit back and take the player who falls to them.

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9 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

This is what I mean When I say that draft position DOES matter.  How can it not matter?  The Jets desperately need a QB and are going to have to leapfrog several teams to get a top one in the 2018 draft so the higher the pick is, the less teams they have to leapfrog and the more ammunition they'll have to get in front of the remaining teams. Yes, a higher pick doesn't guarantee anything, but there's only a few players considered ELITE every year and the Jets should have made sure that they put themselves in the best position to draft an elite QB.  Winning 5-6 meaningless games and picking 10th-12th instead of picking 3rd-4th makes a big difference, and the Jets will feel that difference when the top three QB's in the 2018 draft are gone by the time they pick.  

We didn't really do anything outrageous is FA to think we weren't doing exactly what you are proposing. If McCown is your issue the last 3 teams teams to have McCown picked 1st, 2nd, & 1st in the last 3 years. This team was never going to be bad enough to land a top 2 pick.

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FYI - from Albert Breer

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Clemson, Oklahoma, Georgia, Alabama Make College Football Playoff

Quickly

  • For most NFL scouts, there’s no need to look much farther than Russell Wilson to see why
By Albert Breer
December 05, 2017

It’s easy, after what Russell Wilson did on Sunday night (and what he’s done the last six seasons), to look back on his draft year and say, If he was 6' 4", he’d have gone in the Top 5 picks. It would’ve been a lot tougher to say such a thing before Wilson had started a single NFL game.

But that’s exactly what Pete Carroll said five years and a few months ago. Wilson had just beaten out Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson for Seattle’s starting job, and I had Carroll on the phone a few days before the Seahawks’ opener against the Cardinals. Nationally, at that point, Wilson was more of a curiosity, especially considering the high-profile, first-round rookies who’d start that weekend: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill and, ahem, Brandon Weeden. To everyone, at least, except Carroll and the Seahawks.

 

“[If he was 6' 4"], he’d have been vying for be the first pick,” Carroll told me then. “He has everything you look for—all the records, the numbers, he did everything. He’d be right up there with Andrew [Luck], and you’d be trying to figure it out. That’s my opinion. I just look at him, and think that there’s nothing he can’t do.”

Six years later, could all of that apply to Baker Mayfield?

image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-s3.si.com%2F
Brett Deering/Getty Images

Over the next four months, that’s what the NFL will be trying to figure out, as they assess the guy whose play has stripped Saturday night’s Heisman ceremony of any drama and made it a coronation. Mayfield, like Wilson before him, is an undersized, oft-overlooked star who needed to transfer just to assure that he’d even have a shot to play.

 

Based on the conversations I’ve had over the last few months with dozens of scouts, as well as what I’ve seen with my own eyes, I think I can make this one pretty simple: Baker Mayfield should be a first-round pick.

He’s short. So was Wilson. And to be clear, that’s not irrelevant. There’s Darwinism in the fact that most great NFL quarterbacks are tall. Seeing the field is a significant piece to playing the position, and that’s easier to do from higher ground. So the question is whether or not Mayfield is an outlier.

“He’s extremely talented,” said one AFC college scouting director. “Guys want to play for him, players believe in him, the staff believes in him. I’ve heard the comparisons to Brees, [Johnny] Manziel, Wilson, and there’s a little bit of all of them in his game. And he’s not Manziel in terms of the off-field stuff—he studies his ass off, he goes through his progressions, he’s not a typical spread QB. He has first-round ability.”

 

“Big-time competitor and winner,” texted an AFC exec. “He’s on the short side, but that’s O.K. He’s mobile. Accurate. Passionate. He’s gonna be good.”

The latter exec believes that Mayfield, who’s listed at 6' 1", will come in a shade over 6-foot, which is hardly a death sentence for NFL quarterbacks. In fact, it’d probably make him a shade taller than Brees and Keenum, and put him a couple inches taller than Wilson.

All of which, as another AFC college scouting director put it, “is a problem only if a team wants to make it a problem. If a guy can make all the throws, it’s not. If it affects his play on the field, it is. Johnny didn’t see the field well because he didn’t prepare. The others know how to find windows and throwing lanes. They’re used to being 6-foot, and aware of the issues. I don’t think it’s a problem for Baker.”

 

There are, of course, off-field flags with Mayfield. There was his February arrest for public intoxication, disorderly conduct, resisting and fleeing in Fayetteville, Ark. There’s the on-field antics too, most notably the crotch-grab that prompted coach Lincoln Riley to strip him of his captainship for his final home game.

And feelings on those incidents vary depending on who you talk to. Most scouts I’ve spoken to see his popularity with teammates and coaches, and his maniacal work ethic (which, again, Manziel lacked), and believe that, because his football character is beyond reproach, he’ll be O.K. A few others, on the other hand, see a punk who just doesn’t get it.

 

Either way, Mayfield promises to be the story of the combine and lead up to the draft in Dallas, and we’ll get to see him take on one more good test before then, against Georgia in the Rose Bowl (and maybe two, should the Sooners advance to play either Clemson or Alabama in Atlanta for the national title).

 

For now, though, my belief is plenty of teams see Mayfield as a second-round prospect, and enough like him to make it likely someone gets itchy and takes him in the first round. That is where I believe he should go.

With the benefit of hindsight, we now know Wilson should’ve been a first-round pick in 2012. Consider what Carroll told me then, when I asked what was unique about his rookie quarterback.

 

“Everything is,” he answered. “His smarts, his focus, his discipline, his work habits, his athleticism, his competitiveness, his confidence. Really, however you can rank them, he’s that high on that list in all those areas. Now, all of those of things will be in question in the real season, and he needs to back all that up. But if you observe him, if you know him, you think it’ll happen.”

It did, of course. And a lot of good NFL people believe it will for Mayfield, too. Which is why I’m pretty sure he won’t have to wait too long on draft weekend.


 

 

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1. Baker Mayfield

2.  Price or Ragnow (Arkansas center)

2b. Sony Michael

Put Baker behind our line with a new center, Enunwa as an H-Back with Robby and Kearse, move the pocket, run the ball, and let him make plays with Anderson down the field, and I think this would be a very competitive offense.

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3 minutes ago, BCJet said:

1. Baker Mayfield

2.  Price or Ragnow (Arkansas center)

2b. Sony Michael

Put Baker behind our line with a new center, Enunwa as an H-Back with Robby and Kearse, move the pocket, run the ball, and let him make plays with Anderson down the field, and I think this would be a very competitive offense.

Nice call. Guy has been hurt this season, but should be okay come combine time, I think. Would love either one.

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SI's Albert Breer spoke with on AFC scouting director who believes Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield is not similar to Johnny Manziel because the Sooner "studies his ass off."

This was backed up by another scouting director stating Mayfield knows where he is going with the football at any part of the progressions thanks to his knowledge and preparation, which is different than many failed quarterbacks. The comparison will pop up due to Mayfield's height and success outside of structure. For many, a shorter frame is viewed as a major negative. "I don’t think it’s a problem for Baker," one NFL executive concluded.
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4 minutes ago, BCJet said:

SI's Albert Breer spoke with on AFC scouting director who believes Oklahoma senior QB Baker Mayfield is not similar to Johnny Manziel because the Sooner "studies his ass off."

This was backed up by another scouting director stating Mayfield knows where he is going with the football at any part of the progressions thanks to his knowledge and preparation, which is different than many failed quarterbacks. The comparison will pop up due to Mayfield's height and success outside of structure. For many, a shorter frame is viewed as a major negative. "I don’t think it’s a problem for Baker," one NFL executive concluded.

I’d love to have Baker playing in Green/White. He is a winner. He’s smart. He’s athletic. He is amazingly effective at the college level and pretty much every season he’s been a heisman candidate. His moxie and attitude is the rare kind that you need to play in NY. 

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5 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

I’d love to have Baker playing in Green/White. He is a winner. He’s smart. He’s athletic. He is amazingly effective at the college level and pretty much every season he’s been a heisman candidate. His moxie and attitude is the rare kind that you need to play in NY. 

I wouldn't bet against him 

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Just now, Stark said:

I wouldn't bet against him 

Heres my question(s)

If Mayfield wins, is accurate, has NFL arm strength, and now apparently can be considered (yes taking this guys word) a gym rat/guy who puts in the work - how can he not be a top 10 pick?  Is it actually possible that there are 5-7 GMs who need a QB all of whom didnt learn a thing from the Russel Wilson draft drop?

I dont know, but this just seems too obvious to me - i dont care if he grabs his crotch on the way to the weigh-in at the combine. If the jets dont sign cousins and are on the clock with him available, its the easiest pick in the franchise's history.

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6 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Heres my question(s)

If Mayfield wins, is accurate, has NFL arm strength, and now apparently can be considered (yes taking this guys word) a gym rat/guy who puts in the work - how can he not be a top 10 pick?  Is it actually possible that there are 5-7 GMs who need a QB all of whom didnt learn a thing from the Russel Wilson draft drop?

I dont know, but this just seems too obvious to me - i dont care if he grabs his crotch on the way to the weigh-in at the combine. If the jets dont sign cousins and are on the clock with him available, its the easiest pick in the franchise's history.

I think the question depends on how he plays his next few games. If he lights it up then I think we should trade up to #3 to make sure we get one of him Darnold or Rosen but if he struggles then I don't want to move up and let Jackson/Mayfield/Rudolph/Stidham fall to us. If Mayfield is there he'd be my top option.

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7 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

I think the question depends on how he plays his next few games. If he lights it up then I think we should trade up to #3 to make sure we get one of him Darnold or Rosen but if he struggles then I don't want to move up and let Jackson/Mayfield/Rudolph/Stidham fall to us. If Mayfield is there he'd be my top option.

If he lights up GA and Bama or Clemson then he will stamp himself as a top 5 pick. I don't know if Rosen or Darnold would light up all of those teams. He just needs to play well and not sh!t the bed.  

 

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On 12/5/2017 at 9:41 AM, Guilhermezmc said:

The only thing I don't see in Baker is elite arm strength.

I don't know very much about Mayfield but I think it's time I start paying attention (with the Jets at 5 wins).  Apparently he has good arm strength and is drawing comparisons to Russell Wilson.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/11/08/in-oklahomas-baker-mayfield-nfl-teams-could-see-shades-of-russell-wilson-brett-favre/?utm_term=.0ae7134b8315

image.png

 

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the moons are lining up for us and Mayfield. The playoffs will help focus his stock, but barring something radically good or bad, i think it's gonna be about what happens in team workouts and interviews at this point. 

We're out of the running for #1 and #2 -- and I'm very ok with #3

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On 12/5/2017 at 12:17 PM, bla bla bla said:

Buffalo is an interesting team because they have 2 firsts and 2 seconds this year so they could look to jump up. However there is also a question as to how far are the Bills willing to trade up for either Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield, do they feel like a lot of us that Mayfield/Jackson/Roudolph/Allen/Stidham are all sort of lumped together in terms of risk vs reward and would rather retain their picks.

Since Free Agency is prior to the draft I expect a few pieces to be sorted out:

Kirk Cousins

Tyrod Taylor

Alex Smith

Drew Brees

Case Keenum

Sam Bradford (however I don't know if he'll sign before the draft)

Blake Bortles

Eli Manning

could all be on the move this offseason, if the consensus is that QBs 3-7 are all on a similar level I could see teams signing a vet and willing to sit back and take the player who falls to them.

In truth I could see the Jets picking up Case Keenum and then drafting a second tier QB and hoping that holds off the ugly mass of Jets fans...

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His Heisman presentation was excellent. Made them laugh and his family cry. Could easily be a NY crime boss in the right suit.

Winning the Heisman trust erased all the negative personal sh!t on his resume. 

Unfortunately for us, we'll never get Mayfield. Our ultimate prize is 7-9 and McCown for two more years. Bowles wins.

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