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..will jets TRADE-UP for a Franchise QB ? ? ?


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1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

The Jets had a better package for Wentz which included Wilkerson, but the Browns wanted one more 3rd rounder, and apparently that's where Macc drew the line in the sand you know because 3rd round picks are what's driving the NFL these days, and you get Franchise QB's every year unless you trade them away before the draft, oh wait I think I confused that.

What was our package?

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7 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

If Rosen and Darnold return to school then I'd see an argument for Jackson at 1. It would shock me if he beat out both of those 2 though mainly because Rosen and Darnold are considered safer options than Jackson.

Prepare to be shocked 

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3 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

What was our package?

2016 1st, 2017 1st, 2nd rounder not sure which year, and Wilkerson, Browns also wanted our 2016 3rd round pick that's where the deal apparently fell through, and then the Eagles swooped in.  Eagles gave up 2016 1st, 2017 1st, 2016 3rd, and 4th, and 2017 2nd.  Browns considered Mo Wilk worth the drop from 8th to 20th, and the 4th, but still wanted that 3rd rounder, and they do everything by the analytics book so they were not swaying.

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1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

2016 1st, 2017 1st, 2nd rounder not sure which year, and Wilkerson, Browns also wanted our 2016 3rd round pick that's where the deal apparently fell through, and then the Eagles swooped in.  Eagles gave up 2016 1st, 2017 1st, 2016 3rd, and 4th, and 2017 2nd.  Browns considered Mo Wilk worth the drop from 8th to 20th, and the 4th, but still wanted that 3rd rounder, and they do everything by the analytics book so they were not swaying.

Do you have a link for that? I never saw anything about that package nor can I find anything about it. 

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47 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Anyone Drafting in the top two will not trade Rosen or Darnold for any price. It's who's the next tier. It's got to be Baker Mayfield for the Jets, anything else for me is a fail. Even if we have to move up, he's got to be a Jet al ALL COSTS!

I am with you in believing that its Darnold, Rosen, and then Mayfield and the Jets have to end up with one of those three. The one chance the Jets would have to trade up for Darnold or Rosen is if the Niners end up in the top 2 because they have Garoppolo and won't be drafting a QB.

I like Allen a lot more than most around here but he is such a boom or bust guy that we just can't afford to take a chance and draft him even though I think he could pan out. 

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52 minutes ago, BurnleyJet said:

Anyone Drafting in the top two will not trade Rosen or Darnold for any price. It's who's the next tier. It's got to be Baker Mayfield for the Jets, anything else for me is a fail. Even if we have to move up, he's got to be a Jet al ALL COSTS!

Depends on who it is.  If SF is keeping Jimmy G, they can trade the pick.  CLE absolutely should pick one but has sown repeatedly that they can make the dumb choice.  IND would have to have a read on if Luck is coming back.  If so, they really would do better grabbing Barkely or McGlinchey and building the offense around him finally.  Giants could go QB but could go Key or McGlinchey just as readily.  It wouldn't shock me if one of the top 2 picks got traded this year.

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7 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

I don't think the Jets have the ammunition to move up in the draft. We will be picking anywhere from 5-10 hopefully theres a decent QB and we don't have to overpay for one in free agency. 

Only QB worth going after in FA is Cousins. Anything else is a more expensive stop-gap and would prefer we resign McCown and go all in on a rookie QB. It will be interesting to see what it would take to move up but I think we certainly have the ammo to make it happen. Philly went from 8 to 2 with 2 firsts, a second, a third, and a fourth; we can certainly match that plus we have 2 second round picks this year. The problem would be if say Buffalo blows us out of the water since they have far more picks in this draft.

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1 minute ago, bla bla bla said:

Only QB worth going after in FA is Cousins. Anything else is a more expensive stop-gap and would prefer we resign McCown and go all in on a rookie QB. It will be interesting to see what it would take to move up but I think we certainly have the ammo to make it happen. Philly went from 8 to 2 with 2 firsts, a second, a third, and a fourth; we can certainly match that plus we have 2 second round picks this year. The problem would be if say Buffalo blows us out of the water since they have far more picks in this draft.

Id be all in giving up this years #1 and next years #1 to get a franchise QB. 

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Just now, The Crimson King said:

All-Pro types or just more James Carpenters? I'm not disagreeing or arguing, just want to know (I actually learn things from you guys)

in general, if you have the best guard in the league hit FA and the best WR, RB, sh*t... even TE.  who would command the most dollars on the open market.  I dont think a LT would get as much at the others on the offensive side of the ball.  Maybe a great DT would get less money??? maybe???  Big Sperm has the breakdown, im sure.  He is always hollering about why you dont pick an interior OL high in the draft because of that. @Sperm Edwards

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5 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I agree, I don't see Macc trading up that far but he has shown willingness to explore the option. If he deems a QB will be the guy I hope he is not afraid to do whatever it takes to move up and get that player. If Macc's grades on the QBs are similar I think we move up a pick or 2 to make sure someone doesn't jump us.

Yeah the problem with that is Maccholes idea of a franchise QB was Hackenberg. Based on that do you really trust him to pick the guy he "deems" a QB?

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58 minutes ago, whodeawhodat said:

in general, if you have the best guard in the league hit FA and the best WR, RB, sh*t... even TE.  who would command the most dollars on the open market.  I dont think a LT would get as much at the others on the offensive side of the ball.  Maybe a great DT would get less money??? maybe???  Big Sperm has the breakdown, im sure.  He is always hollering about why you dont pick an interior OL high in the draft because of that. @Sperm Edwards

It’s not rocket science just look at the franchise tag by position. 

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4 hours ago, Pennington said:

Jackson is not an NFL QB. He is an inaccurate passer and he will get killed running like he does in the NFL. The Jets would be flushing the next few years down the drain if they waste a pick on this guy.  

As opposed to what we've done with the last few years?

1 hour ago, whodeawhodat said:

in general, if you have the best guard in the league hit FA and the best WR, RB, sh*t... even TE.  who would command the most dollars on the open market.  I dont think a LT would get as much at the others on the offensive side of the ball.  Maybe a great DT would get less money??? maybe???  Big Sperm has the breakdown, im sure.  He is always hollering about why you dont pick an interior OL high in the draft because of that. @Sperm Edwards

Is the LT a typo?  If you mean LG, maybe...  maybe.  TE is the lowest tag except P/K.  They make more than RBs too. Sad thing for the Jets and their #infrastructure is that S is only margnally higher paid than TE. 

27 minutes ago, LionelRichie said:

It’s not rocket science just look at the franchise tag by position. 

Yep. You could also just look at the positions the Jets have filled.  Those are the cheap ones. 

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4 hours ago, JetFaninMI said:

Yeah the problem with that is Maccholes idea of a franchise QB was Hackenberg. Based on that do you really trust him to pick the guy he "deems" a QB?

I'm not sure he deemed Hack a franchise QB with that selection. If he honestly felt that way I think he'd have forced him into the lineup, that hasn't happened. Given that we were trying to trade for Cousins, Mariota, & Wentz since Macc has been here I think there is some merit to what he looks for in a QB.

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9 hours ago, BurnleyJet said:

Anyone Drafting in the top two will not trade Rosen or Darnold for any price. It's who's the next tier. It's got to be Baker Mayfield for the Jets, anything else for me is a fail. Even if we have to move up, he's got to be a Jet al ALL COSTS!

With our luck the team before us picks him. (Just to screw us).

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8 hours ago, joewilly12 said:
 

Just heard from a league source that the New York #Jets love Josh Allen. Wyoming source told me they've done the most work on him.

I find that odd.  They had zero scouts or front office personnel when he played at Iowa this year, I can 100% validate that.

Not saying the Jets aren't interested because of that, but there were LOTS of teams in attendance that day.  

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10 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

I'm not sure he deemed Hack a franchise QB with that selection. If he honestly felt that way I think he'd have forced him into the lineup, that hasn't happened. Given that we were trying to trade for Cousins, Mariota, & Wentz since Macc has been here I think there is some merit to what he looks for in a QB.

Dude he picked him early in the second round. Far higher than anyone had him rated. If he didn't think he was franchise material why would he pick him there? If he didn't think he was "the future" and he picked him there that is ground's for firing alone in my book. You don't really know who or if he was trying to trade for unless you got it straight from his mouth. Everything else is just speculation.

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49 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

Dude he picked him early in the second round. Far higher than anyone had him rated. If he didn't think he was franchise material why would he pick him there? If he didn't think he was "the future" and he picked him there that is ground's for firing alone in my book. You don't really know who or if he was trying to trade for unless you got it straight from his mouth. Everything else is just speculation.

Pick 51. There were 20 selections before him in the 2nd round. There are 32 teams, so at best you could argue that he was selected in the middle of the 2nd. I don't really care about your wording on that though cause you are trying to over exaggerate your point. So middle of the 2nd round is "Far higher than anyone had him rated"?

3rd Round: SBNation

3rd Round: Walter Football

2nd - 3rd Round: NFL.com

1st - 2nd Round: Sporting News

2nd - 3rd Round: NFLDraftScout.com

3rd Round: Sports Illustrated

2nd - 3rd Round: NBC Sports

2nd Round: Todd McShay

2nd Round: Mel Kiper

I'll be honest I was pretty indifferent with the selection. It's not like past years where there was a player that I thought was head and shoulders better with our pick, so in my mind I'd rather roll the dice on a QB than another position but that's just me. If he traded up and gave up other assets to make that pick I'd agree with you. I do think Macc thought the potential of Hack was worth the gamble over the potential of the remaining players on the board even if the remaining players had slightly better odds of panning out. Scoring a QB over say a CB or OL at that point would net a higher gain for the team. If the Browns come out and say they were close to a deal with the Jets or someone within the organization says they almost had a deal I don't see why we can't view that as accurate. It's not just Macc, we're talking 20-25 people per team in war rooms.

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18 hours ago, whodeawhodat said:

in general, if you have the best guard in the league hit FA and the best WR, RB, sh*t... even TE.  who would command the most dollars on the open market.  I dont think a LT would get as much at the others on the offensive side of the ball.  Maybe a great DT would get less money??? maybe???  Big Sperm has the breakdown, im sure.  He is always hollering about why you dont pick an interior OL high in the draft because of that. @Sperm Edwards

You don't pick an interior OLman high in the draft unless you're just stupid and stink at roster management. If positions like guard, center, safety, TE, or ILB are the highest-ranked position by far, then take the best trade you can get, move down, and let someone else make that mistake. If another is in the ballpark, you take that other position. Such a player would have to play at a HOF level to even hindsight-justify over another position that'd cost upwards of (or in excess of) twice that.

As a FA, a top 5 guard gets in the $11m range. You want a solid, sure thing instant starting guard? Then pony up that amount in FA and save the draft for positions that cost far more than that to fill, to the degree such players ever reach FA in the first place. Either that or draft better outside of the top 10 overall.

Interior linemen (taken in the top 10) aren't even typically worth the money for the (supposedly team-friendly) 5th year team option, because that's calculated by lumping in the higher LT salaries (since the top salaries are typically all LTs, the 5th year option for a G/C is essentially top 10 veteran left tackle money). If a G/C did somehow get that 5th year exercised, it's likely only because the team sees that overpayment as less risky than a full extension, they don't want to get just 4 years out of a top 5-10 pick before losing him (the first 1-2 years usually at less than their very best anyway), or the GM was sleeping on the job and was derelict in locking up the player when he had the chance. 

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@whodeawhodat

Here's the 5th year option list from 2017 (for 2014 draft picks). It's designed to give an advantage team who nails the pick, not for the player who ends up a year further from FA (or even franchise tag) money. :

Position    

Picks 1-10

Picks 11-32

Cornerback

$12,353,000

$8,526,000    

Defensive end

$13,846,000

$8,625,000

Defensive tackle

$10,923,000

$6,892,000

Linebacker

$12,306,000

$8,718,000

Offensive line

$12,496,000 

$9,341,000    

Punter/kicker

$4,384,000     

$3,242,000     

Quarterback

$19,053,000

$12,198,000

Running back

$9,840,000

$5,697,000

Safety

$9,272,000

$5,957,000

Tight end

$8,250,000

$5,194,000

Wide receiver

$13,258,000

$8,459,000

 

On the OL at $12.5m only a LT would clearly warrant exercising even a 5th year option. $12.5m is more than the single highest paid veteran interior lineman gets on the most recent veteran contract (currently Zeitler at $12.0m). For center, it's even dumber, as there are only 3 in the entire league making over $9m per, and they're all just barely higher. It goes without saying that the higher the veteran price, the more proportionally valuable the draftee is in that first 4-5 year window. 

The further (and arguably the main) reason is a position's value beyond the 5th year. These y5 option figures are based upon veteran contracts (like a "franchise-player-lite" calculation). The point being, that's what it supposedly costs to get around a #10 player salary player at each position (more than adequate to be the starter on a realistic SB contender). If the position was considered so crucial, they'd get paid more. So absent a functioning crystal ball, you take the positions you can't adequately fill in FA at ~$10m or less; you instead draft the player whom you have no shot at in that range in FA, or for whom a FA salary is so high he's not worth it.

  • A top 5-10, young veteran interior lineman can be had in the $9-11m/year range. A few will cost a little more, and a few will cost less. Ditto TE, safety, ILB, and especially RT.
  • In comparison, how much does it cost to get a top-10 ranked, still-younger LT on the open market? Even though their salaries haven't exploded like others, the short answer is there is no answer because it doesn't ever happen (their teams lock them up while they can, typically for a good amount less than they'd get a year later as UFAs). The best FA LT you're usually going to find is a bank-breaking contract for 29 year-old Russell Okung, whose current deal is so disproportionate with his play it quickly becomes an albatross rather than an asset once that low year-1 cap number has passed. Beachum is a relative steal in comparison, and he isn't too good himself.

So which is easier to keep a team's options open? Drafting high-priced position in the top 10 and using FA for the lower-priced ones, or drafting low-priced positions and trying to fill the high-priced ones in free agency (assuming late-round luck as a constant)? The answer is obvious.

All of this is still just nuance without an adequate solution at QB. Nailing a draft pick on the best LT in the game, even on a very manageable contract and healthy every year beyond the rookie contract, can still be on the worst team in the game year after year. Just ask Joe Thomas.

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I think it's time for the Jets to step up and pick a potential franchise QB. It looks like a promising group and I would say do it now at any cost. They also have to shore up the O-line and that also needs to be a priority either through the draft or free agancy or both. Who stays and who goes should be interesting.

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7 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

Pick 51. There were 20 selections before him in the 2nd round. There are 32 teams, so at best you could argue that he was selected in the middle of the 2nd. I don't really care about your wording on that though cause you are trying to over exaggerate your point. So middle of the 2nd round is "Far higher than anyone had him rated"?

3rd Round: SBNation

3rd Round: Walter Football

2nd - 3rd Round: NFL.com

1st - 2nd Round: Sporting News

2nd - 3rd Round: NFLDraftScout.com

3rd Round: Sports Illustrated

2nd - 3rd Round: NBC Sports

2nd Round: Todd McShay

2nd Round: Mel Kiper

I'll be honest I was pretty indifferent with the selection. It's not like past years where there was a player that I thought was head and shoulders better with our pick, so in my mind I'd rather roll the dice on a QB than another position but that's just me. If he traded up and gave up other assets to make that pick I'd agree with you. I do think Macc thought the potential of Hack was worth the gamble over the potential of the remaining players on the board even if the remaining players had slightly better odds of panning out. Scoring a QB over say a CB or OL at that point would net a higher gain for the team. If the Browns come out and say they were close to a deal with the Jets or someone within the organization says they almost had a deal I don't see why we can't view that as accurate. It's not just Macc, we're talking 20-25 people per team in war rooms.

 I go by PFF's ratings my Macc loving friend. They are be all and end all for rating players in my book. I even highlighted the significant area's for you Here:

Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg

ChristianHackenberg.jpg?w=916&h=720

Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback.

I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted.

That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data.

Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class:

Inaccuracy

There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages.

This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing.

Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative.

Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage.

Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys.

Hack WR Screen Miss

I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB.

The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent).

Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL.

Decision-making

All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway.

That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers.

PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg.

Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six:

Hack Pick Six

Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition.

Controlling pressure

Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg.

Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under.

Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap.

Free-Rusher-Middle

Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly.

Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up.

In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with.

Lack of upside

Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning.

In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse.

But what about 2013?

One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season.

Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season.

2016-04-08_08-02-21

Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall.

Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career.

When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him.

Hack Robinson

This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson.

Conclusion

One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell.

While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback.

Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play.

There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.

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