JetFaninMI Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said: I go by PFF's ratings my Macc loving friend. They are the be all and end all for rating players in my book. I even highlighted the significant area's for you Here: Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. This season his completion percentage when adjusted for drops, spikes, etc. was 64.0 percent, which was 120th in the nation. In 2014, he was 105th. Every accuracy number you look at sees Hackenberg struggle, and the tape shows the same thing. Even when under no pressure at all this past season, he completed just 61.9 percent of his passes. That’s the same completion percentage Cardale Jones managed on all plays, not just pressure plays, and Jones is a player whose accuracy is seen as a negative. Hackenberg’s completion percentage under no pressure at all of 61.9 percent would only have ranked 44th in the nation, if it was his real completion percentage. Completion percentage can be affected by many things, but if you dive a little deeper and look specifically at his ball placement, things get even worse. Hackenberg completed 192 passes this past season, but when we charted ball location for quarterbacks in this draft class, 55 of those catches were badly located passes. He was only accurate on 48.1 percent of attempts when throwing to open receivers. By comparison, Cody Kessler was accurate on 73.2 percent of his attempts to open receivers, Carson Wentz was at 61.2 percent. Even Cardale Jones, our inaccuracy comp in this exercise, was 5 percent better when throwing to open guys. I have never seen a quarterback consistently miss as many wide receiver screens as Hackenberg. Receiver screens are supposed to be high-percentage plays. In college, the average receiver screen pass is only off-target on 4.75 percent of attempts. In the NFL that figure becomes 3.45 percent, and the worst mark any QB has posted over the past three seasons is Chad Henne, at 8.47 percent. Last season, Hackenberg was off-target on 15.8 percent of his receiver screen passes — around five times more inaccurate than the average NFL QB. The story only gets worse on passes 11 to 20 yards down the field. He is accurate in ball-location terms on just 27.5 percent of them (the best QBs in this class are up around 50 percent). From 21 to 30, yards he is down at 12.0 percent (with the best marks around 40 percent). Hackenberg is capable of occasionally brilliant passes, and every now and then, exceptional accuracy. But when looking at his entire body of work, our assessment is that he is far too inaccurate to play in the NFL. Decision-making All quarterbacks can be caught out, or baited, or somehow convinced to attempt a pass they shouldn’t, but at least an evaluator can usually work out where the play broke down and what tempted him into taking the shot. Hackenberg regularly has plays where the pass has little to no chance of succeeding, but he puts the ball in the air anyway. That is a fatal flaw for an NFL quarterback, as QBs need to be able to read what happens before and after the snap to put the ball in the right place. Sometimes Hackenberg can do exactly that, but far too often he appears to simply decide not to, and those plays lead to simple turnovers. PFF’s play-by-play grading scale works from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments. Minus-1.5 and minus-2 throws are catastrophic plays that usually result in a turnover. Hackenberg has 37 of them over his college career, equivalent to a catastrophically bad pass on 3.1 percent of his attempts. Jared Goff, by contrast, threw one on 1.1 percent in 2015. Even Michigan State QB Connor Cook, whom we have noted throughout his draft evaluation for his bad habit of reckless throws, threw one on 1.5 percent — or less than half the rate of Hackenberg. Hackenberg regularly does not see defenders breaking on the ball or cutting underneath his intended receiver. Against Temple in the first game of this season, he missed a defensive end dropping straight under a quick slant and almost tossed him a pick-six. Last year against Indiana he tossed the ball straight to a defender who was cutting in front of his bubble screen and did throw a pick-six: Turning the ball over at the NFL level is the cardinal sin of quarterback play. Most top passers now have historically low interception and turnover rates. Hackenberg puts the ball in that kind of danger far too often, at a far lower level of competition. Controlling pressure Quarterbacks play a role in the rate at which they face pressure — it isn’t simply a function of the offensive line. This is important to keep in mind when evaluating Hackenberg. Many have cited Penn State’s poor pass protection as a reason for Hackenberg’s struggles, and to be clear, it’s not as though I thought he had the benefit of a great offensive line. But let’s look at the 2015 season opener against Temple as an example of how Hackenberg deserved some blame for the amount of pressure he was under. Hackenberg was under pressure on 17 of his 36 dropbacks in that game, but only seven of those pressures were charged to the offensive line. That means nearly 60 percent of the pressure he was under in that game was not surrendered by his O-line, and much of it was clear from before the snap. Temple regularly showed six rushers before the snap, came with all of them, and Hackenberg was surprised by the free rusher despite only having five men in the protection. Some might want to cut him a break for the free rusher the offense couldn’t pick up, but it’s his job to understand that it is coming from the pre-snap read and be prepared to get rid of the ball quickly. Don’t get me wrong: Hackenberg’s line was not good at Penn State, but it wasn’t the prohibitive collection of uniformed turnstyles that they’ve been made out to be, either. As a unit they surrendered 135 total pressures in 2015, which is bad, but 15 other teams managed worse, including Goff’s California Bears (154). 45 other offensive lines surrendered pressure at a greater rate than Hackenberg’s line last season. And in 2014, we charged Hackenberg with eight of the sacks he took, which is five more than any single lineman gave up. In fact, since he has been the quarterback, Hackenberg has been directly to blame for more sacks than any single lineman blocking for him, and that doesn’t even touch the ones he was indirectly at fault for by being unable to effectively diagnose the pressure looks he was presented with. Lack of upside Much of the positive buzz around Hackenberg as a prospect has to do with the fact that he looks the part of an NFL QB. But while Hackenberg can make every throw you can think of, and does have some beautiful passes in his tape, the frequency with which he is able to produce them is concerning. In 2015, Hackenberg produced a pass graded at plus-1 or higher (a stat we have taken to calling “Big-Time Throws,” much to my distress) on 2.68 percent of his attempts. 151 QBs were better than that, and only nine were worse. But what about 2013? One of the narratives around Hackenberg is that his play dropped off after an impressive true freshman campaign in 2013 — when Bill O’Brien was his head coach, prior to taking over the Houston Texans’ job, and his top target was Allen Robinson, now one of the league’s best young wide receivers for the Jaguars — due to a subpar supporting cast and poor fit with new Penn State head coach James Franklin. It’s certainly true that his raw numbers were more encouraging that season. Unfortunately for Hackenberg, when we went back and graded his 2013 campaign, the results were not good. His 2013 season grade was a minus-24.7, which would have ranked third from the bottom in this draft class for the 2015 season. Take a look at this table with a group of this year’s quarterbacks and their grades from the 2015 season. I have included each year of Hackenberg at the bottom. Goff leads the way in grading terms by some distance. Carson Wentz graded well, especially considering the time he missed through injury, but the bigger point is that nowhere on this list is there a prospect other than Hackenberg who graded negatively overall. Lest you think I’m just cherry-picking prospects to ensure that result, the only quarterback prospect in this draft class (other than Hackenberg) with any kind of pro prospects whatsoever to have a negative overall grade is Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, and he at least has the asterisk of only attempting 270 passes in his entire college career. When you factor in that Hackenberg was only a true freshman, then it probably is fair to say that the 2013 season was his best — but he still earned a lower grade in that season than any QB in this current draft class, and was greatly affected by the benefit of Robinson’s ability to either take routine catches to the house or go up and haul in questionable passes that were thrown as much to the defensive back as they were him. This pass is a good example, as it was thrown straight to a corner who had position over the top and leverage on the receiver, but simply misplayed the ball in the air. Robinson, on the other hand, went up and high-pointed the ball, bringing it in for a big gain. This was a pass that ended up looking very nice based on the result, but probably shouldn’t have been thrown in the first place — even to a receiver as talented as Robinson. Conclusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.
LionelRichie Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 14 hours ago, bla bla bla said: Pick 51. There were 20 selections before him in the 2nd round. There are 32 teams, so at best you could argue that he was selected in the middle of the 2nd. I don't really care about your wording on that though cause you are trying to over exaggerate your point. So middle of the 2nd round is "Far higher than anyone had him rated"? 3rd Round: SBNation 3rd Round: Walter Football 2nd - 3rd Round: NFL.com 1st - 2nd Round: Sporting News 2nd - 3rd Round: NFLDraftScout.com 3rd Round: Sports Illustrated 2nd - 3rd Round: NBC Sports 2nd Round: Todd McShay 2nd Round: Mel Kiper I'll be honest I was pretty indifferent with the selection. It's not like past years where there was a player that I thought was head and shoulders better with our pick, so in my mind I'd rather roll the dice on a QB than another position but that's just me. If he traded up and gave up other assets to make that pick I'd agree with you. I do think Macc thought the potential of Hack was worth the gamble over the potential of the remaining players on the board even if the remaining players had slightly better odds of panning out. Scoring a QB over say a CB or OL at that point would net a higher gain for the team. If the Browns come out and say they were close to a deal with the Jets or someone within the organization says they almost had a deal I don't see why we can't view that as accurate. It's not just Macc, we're talking 20-25 people per team in war rooms. Great post. The problem isn't taking a chance on hack - the problem is not seeing the flaws and passing on Watson & mahomes to let hack 'develop'. If you roll the dice on hack then you roll them again on better prospects rather than going with a safety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnleyJet Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 3 hours ago, LionelRichie said: D Great post. The problem isn't taking a chance on hack - the problem is not seeing the flaws and passing on Watson & mahomes to let hack 'develop'. If you roll the dice on hack then you roll them again on better prospects rather than going with a safety. Yeah but we're all set at Safety now Your right of course, the problem is Macc's painted himself into a corner and Must draft a QB next off season. Every one knows the Jets want one and the price for moving up will be heavy. Unfortunatly for the Jets The Browns and Giants sit 1 & 2 in the draft. Neither of these teams will trade down. If Darnold and Rosen both declare. So it's Allen, Mayfield, or Jackson really. I'm hoping we loose out so we don't have to trade up to pick one of them. Not ideal, but hopefully one we pick can at least play at NFL starter level, which will be a novelty being a Jets fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 14 hours ago, JetFaninMI said: That was a great post. I never saw that breakdown of him but that is exactly what we have seen in his limited playing time. This certainly reinforces why I believe he is not seeing the field right now. I was trying to show that multiple outlets had Hack rated far higher than your clam. I will certainly use PFF going forward because the seem to be spot on for draftee breakdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 4 hours ago, BurnleyJet said: Yeah but we're all set at Safety now Your right of course, the problem is Macc's painted himself into a corner and Must draft a QB next off season. Every one knows the Jets want one and the price for moving up will be heavy. Unfortunatly for the Jets The Browns and Giants sit 1 & 2 in the draft. Neither of these teams will trade down. If Darnold and Rosen both declare. So it's Allen, Mayfield, or Jackson really. I'm hoping we loose out so we don't have to trade up to pick one of them. Not ideal, but hopefully one we pick can at least play at NFL starter level, which will be a novelty being a Jets fan. Painted himself into a corner yes because he needs to get a QB this offseason but I also think he wanted to get a few drafts in to have some talent in place before adding a QB. I also think there was an idea that this year in FA and draft from afar look to be a higher volume of potentials QBs than last year. So I while he still tried to address QB trade ups in the past I think he was okay with waiting until this season where Cousins could be an option. Cousins + trade down or keep all picks and go BPA = Franchise QB with the support of young cheap players through the draft or $90M in hopefully young FA help + trading up for a QB = Franchise QB with support through FA. Those FA would basically support our young QB for 2-3 years until we start getting early draft picks again or $90M in hopefully young FA help + staying put in the draft (maybe he likes a few QBs) = potentially reaching on a Franchise QB with support through FA and Draft picks. I'm not sure which option is the right course of action but I do really like all 3 options compared to anything we've really had in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichardTodd27 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 11:38 AM, Mike135 said: Phuckin Jets. Completely disgusted. All ya had to do was lose and ya F-ed that up. The Giants didn't even prepare to suck like the Jets did, yet were instantly able to adjust once losing was their best option. A horribly run team on every level. Giants are doing it because of injuries. And just think, the Jets could easily be 6-4 right now. So it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 8 hours ago, LionelRichie said: Great post. The problem isn't taking a chance on hack - the problem is not seeing the flaws and passing on Watson & mahomes to let hack 'develop'. If you roll the dice on hack then you roll them again on better prospects rather than going with a safety. I completely agree. If Macc knew what Hack was last draft and passed on both those QBs knowing what they could be to save face for his bad Hack pick then that is inexcusable. I don't think he knew what he had in Hack at that point though since he only saw him in 1 preseason game and he didn't get many snaps last training camp because the team wanted Fitz as their QB which is also the reason they held onto Petty, Hack at that point was a total question mark. I do believe after this past mini camp, training camp, & preseason that he knows what he has in Hack and will sign or draft a QB this offseason. In a round about way, I do blame not knowing what Hack was sooner on us over achieving in year 1. Oo how things could be different if IK didn't punch Geno. Fitz likely doesn't become starter, playoff push never happens, Fitz doesn't resign, we possibly trade up for Wentz since our draft pick would likely be higher or eventually draft Hack in round 2. Wentz/Hack would then have 1-2 seasons with the vets as support, assuming they don't lay down like they did year 2. If we had still taken Hack we may have had a full season from him with good support staff to grade him before the 2017 draft where we then could have taken Mahomes or Watson. And thus the Genofly Effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 12:22 PM, bla bla bla said: He's shown the willingness to try and move up, unfortunately the Titans took Mariota so that didn't happen. And the year we tried to move up to get Wentz Philly gave up: To move from 13 to 8: 13th overall, Maxwell and Kiko Then to move up from 8 to 2: 8th overall, 3rd, 4th, 2017 1st, & 2018 2nd We had the 20th pick that year so realistically we would have needed to give up far more than Philly. That is an extremely steep price considering how much talent we lacked. This year I think we are in a far better position to make a jump up that high if the opportunity presents itself. Showing the willingness to try and move up for a FQB only if you think you're getting a steal on chart points is as useful as a rigor mortis erection. It's like a guy in a bar who has the "willingness" to take a girl home, but only if she throws herself at him. But hey, we saved our picks to use on Darren Lee and Christian Hackenberg, and we got to keep Mo at some 5x his worth. But even that doesn't exist in a vacuum: there's a domino effect. From those glorious plusses we have to subtract out: $35m over 2 years that could have gone towards a contract for someone not named Mo Wilkerson $12m that could have gone towards someone other than Ryan Fitzpatrick $8m+ that could have gone towards someone other than Josh McCown wasting the 2016 season wasting the 2017 season the premium position players we could have ended up drafting with the 2018 (and perhaps 2019) draft picks we still have to spend to draft a QB this year And even then we still have to draft a QB better and more productive than Wentz when the dust finally settles, and consider how many seasons it'll take for him to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike135 Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 46 minutes ago, RichardTodd27 said: Giants are doing it because of injuries. And just think, the Jets could easily be 6-4 right now. So it could be worse. No that'd be better. Not quite as good as 0-10, but being a playoff contender isn't a wasted season. 4-6 is no man's land and a complete failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 On 11/16/2017 at 4:37 PM, whodeawhodat said: But O-line is one of the least expensive areas to buy on the FA market. It's not likely to happen, though. We'll see a new center (a no-brainer that can't escape even our no-brain FO), and 50/50 a different LG if they don't think Carpenter will bounce back. Beachum is locked in with half his 2017 salary guaranteed Winters has his entire 2017 salary guaranteed Shell I think they just like too much to move on from him Carpenter has no more guaranteed money left, but if he does bounce back only a rookie would be better bang for the buck since he's only due $4.7m of new money. Then if he's not extended for 2019+, we'd be in line for a 2020 comp pick. I think he sticks, and Macc drafts his (or Winters') hopeful successor between the 4th-6th round. That could change if he goes the FA route for a QB instead of drafting one. There's also the chance they draft someone who starts at LT as a rookie, and have Beachum and Shell duke it out for RT duties, or the rookie battles it out with Shell for the RT job (or I suppose the theoretical possibility of moving any of them to LG for 2018). If Beachum is the odd man out in a real competition (lol), then we could cross our fingers and hope another team becomes desperate for an instant-starter LT before opening day since Beachum's contract isn't outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said: Showing the willingness to try and move up for a FQB only if you think you're getting a steal on chart points is as useful as a rigor mortis erection. It's like a guy in a bar who has the "willingness" to take a girl home, but only if she throws herself at him. But hey, we saved our picks to use on Darren Lee and Christian Hackenberg, and we got to keep Mo at some 5x his worth. But even that doesn't exist in a vacuum: there's a domino effect. From those glorious plusses we have to subtract out: $35m over 2 years that could have gone towards a contract for someone not named Mo Wilkerson $12m that could have gone towards someone other than Ryan Fitzpatrick $8m+ that could have gone towards someone other than Josh McCown wasting the 2016 season wasting the 2017 season the premium position players we could have ended up drafting with the 2018 (and perhaps 2019) draft picks we still have to spend to draft a QB this year And even then we still have to draft a QB better and more productive than Wentz when the dust finally settles, and consider how many seasons it'll take for him to get there. I basically outlined the same exact thing minus Mo a few messages earlier. I didn't know Macc went by a point system for determining value, I thought that was a system for fans to use to help roughly determine what the value of a pick is given what it been traded for In the past. I think all the issues you brought up ultimately stem from IK socking Geno and giving us that false hope with Fitz. So I completely agree with almost everything you said. As for the guy in a bar comparison that really makes no sense. The guy in the bar needs consent from the girl he's trying to pick up where in the draft if Mac is willing to move up we ARE taking that girl home unless the player decides to sit the season out and re-enter in the draft. My argument is that he at least knows the QBs that will be good early in the draft he just needs to go up and do it this year or it's grounds for being fired. We have the ammo and cap space this year so make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 5 hours ago, bla bla bla said: I basically outlined the same exact thing minus Mo a few messages earlier. I didn't know Macc went by a point system for determining value, I thought that was a system for fans to use to help roughly determine what the value of a pick is given what it been traded for In the past. I think all the issues you brought up ultimately stem from IK socking Geno and giving us that false hope with Fitz. So I completely agree with almost everything you said. As for the guy in a bar comparison that really makes no sense. The guy in the bar needs consent from the girl he's trying to pick up where in the draft if Mac is willing to move up we ARE taking that girl home unless the player decides to sit the season out and re-enter in the draft. My argument is that he at least knows the QBs that will be good early in the draft he just needs to go up and do it this year or it's grounds for being fired. We have the ammo and cap space this year so make it happen. Uh, you need consent from the other side to make a trade. So it makes perfect sense. Look at it from the POV of a girl would would give consent if the guy had any game. That girl was the Jaguars. I get and sympathize that you want to believe in him, but your argument is wrong because the reality is he doesn't know what you say he does. All we know is he once inquired about trading up for Wentz - as would any team without a QB - but didn't like him enough to actually pull the trigger. The one he did pull the trigger on was Hackenberg, and stayed away from QBs in this draft because he didn't believe in them either. Among QBs he had the opportunity to pick up from 2015-2017 QBs Macc didn't like at all, or didn't like very much (based on passing on the player at our draft slot, or making loose due diligence inquiries about with no rumors of any real offer made): McCown 2015, Cousins, Goff, Lynch, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes QBs Macc may have really liked, but didn't actually like enough to get: Wentz, Trubisky QBs Macc did like enough to make moves to get (or stick with): Geno, Fitzpatrick in 2015, Petty, Hackenberg, Fitzpatrick again in 2016, McCown 2015 You're going to tell me this track record is actually encouraging? Wentz was the #1 or #2 rated QB in the draft, depending on whose board you were looking at. Any fool of a GM with no QB was making inquiries to move up for him or Goff (or seeing how much of a windfall they could get by trading down, like Cleveland). Difference is 2 other teams did make a move. If you wanted to point at some QB where he saw something few others did, where he just barely missed out on a QB he was about to take, then maybe that would be something. Inquiring and scoffing at the cost of moving up for either of the top 2 rated QBs, when he had nothing except an egg-on-face-embarrassing Fitzpatrick controversy, is a big nothing. A child with internet access could fail like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantasy Island Posted November 18, 2017 Share Posted November 18, 2017 Little Mac will get Chad Henne to be our QB while drafting back to back CBs in the first and second round. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 16 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said: Uh, you need consent from the other side to make a trade. So it makes perfect sense. Look at it from the POV of a girl would would give consent if the guy had any game. That girl was the Jaguars. I get and sympathize that you want to believe in him, but your argument is wrong because the reality is he doesn't know what you say he does. All we know is he once inquired about trading up for Wentz - as would any team without a QB - but didn't like him enough to actually pull the trigger. The one he did pull the trigger on was Hackenberg, and stayed away from QBs in this draft because he didn't believe in them either. Among QBs he had the opportunity to pick up from 2015-2017 QBs Macc didn't like at all, or didn't like very much (based on passing on the player at our draft slot, or making loose due diligence inquiries about with no rumors of any real offer made): McCown 2015, Cousins, Goff, Lynch, Prescott, Watson, Mahomes QBs Macc may have really liked, but didn't actually like enough to get: Wentz, Trubisky QBs Macc did like enough to make moves to get (or stick with): Geno, Fitzpatrick in 2015, Petty, Hackenberg, Fitzpatrick again in 2016, McCown 2015 You're going to tell me this track record is actually encouraging? Wentz was the #1 or #2 rated QB in the draft, depending on whose board you were looking at. Any fool of a GM with no QB was making inquiries to move up for him or Goff (or seeing how much of a windfall they could get by trading down, like Cleveland). Difference is 2 other teams did make a move. If you wanted to point at some QB where he saw something few others did, where he just barely missed out on a QB he was about to take, then maybe that would be something. Inquiring and scoffing at the cost of moving up for either of the top 2 rated QBs, when he had nothing except an egg-on-face-embarrassing Fitzpatrick controversy, is a big nothing. A child with internet access could fail like that. ah ok I thought you were saying picking up the player is like picking up a girl at the bar but you meant trading in the draft is like picking up a girl, misinterpreted that. Maybe I'm giving Macc too much credit but the pieces seem to make sense given the state of our roster (both in quality and age) when he took over the team. I think he was forced to try a competitive rebuild the first 2 years and wasn't given the OK to move ahead until the wheels came off last year. I think we have the ammo and money to acquire a QB next year so IMO this would be the make or break year for me on Macc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roscoeword Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 On 11/18/2017 at 12:44 AM, JetFaninMI said: I go by PFF's ratings my Macc loving friend. They are be all and end all for rating players in my book. I even highlighted the significant area's for you Here: Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. clusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all. The guy who wrote this piece is a prophet, but even better, has the wisdom to see what is obvious. Why can't we get him to scout for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Why PFF doesn't have a draftable grade on Christian Hackenberg By Sam Monson • Apr 8, 2016 Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg is one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2016 NFL draft. There are evaluators who have stated that they believe Hackenberg should go in the second round of the draft. Still others have said that his performance on tape is worrying enough that he should drop further than the second tier of passers, but the tools are still clearly there for him to potentially be an NFL-caliber quarterback. I hold a different opinion: I don’t believe Christian Hackenberg should even be drafted. That seems like hyperbole, and it is not intended to come across as a slam against a player who is working hard for his shot to play in the NFL. But the truth is that instead of hyperbole it is actually an honest assessment backed up by three years of play-by-play grading, tape study and data. Here is why my analysis and that of the PFF team has led me to believe that Hackenberg is not a draftable prospect in this class: Inaccuracy There isn’t a more inaccurate quarterback prospect in this draft with a reasonable chance at being drafted. Hackenberg is inaccurate at every level of the field, on all throws and against all coverages. clusion One of the few things left supporting Hackenberg’s draft stock is that he looks like an NFL quarterback. His arm is pretty good, and he ticks most of the measurable boxes, but that’s like a newly created Madden player before you have assigned all the performance attributes like accuracy and decision-making. At that point all you have is a player shell. While there is good to his game in small flashes, you have to overlook so much bad to see it that it simply isn’t enough. Tim Tebow made some nice throws, too, but it didn’t make him a starting NFL quarterback. Even the best of Hackenberg is an average, inaccurate passer with a few worrying qualities. In my opinion, his NFL ceiling is as a backup a team hopes it never has to play. There was a time when Hackenberg was largely seen as a first-round talent, and it’s taken three seasons of poor play for him to be moved down most draft boards to the Day 2 or Day 3 range. But after evaluating him on tape to go along with three seasons of play-by-play data, I can’t see the case for drafting him at all.
section314 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, roscoeword said: The guy who wrote this piece is a prophet, but even better, has the wisdom to see what is obvious. Why can't we get him to scout for us? Maybe he was a Jets scout, and got canned right before that draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 8 hours ago, bla bla bla said: ah ok I thought you were saying picking up the player is like picking up a girl at the bar but you meant trading in the draft is like picking up a girl, misinterpreted that. Maybe I'm giving Macc too much credit but the pieces seem to make sense given the state of our roster (both in quality and age) when he took over the team. I think he was forced to try a competitive rebuild the first 2 years and wasn't given the OK to move ahead until the wheels came off last year. I think we have the ammo and money to acquire a QB next year so IMO this would be the make or break year for me on Macc. He was never forced to do anything, and was never forced to take any player in free agency or in the draft. It’s all conspiracy theory nonsense, and there isn’t a single credible leak to the contrary in the entire time Macc’s been here (like with Idzik before him). Not one. At best he had pressure on himself to re-sign Fitz - we all saw Bowles get up on that podium like an ass and announce Fitz as the incumbent starter if he’s re-signed - but that pressure would have disappeared if he’d traded up for Wentz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsplayer21 Posted November 19, 2017 Share Posted November 19, 2017 Looks like Mac may try go trade the farm to move up. It won’t be easy nor cheap from back where the jets will be. http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/72943/jets-gm-gets-a-very-up-close-look-at-sam-darnold-josh-rosen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Jetsplayer21 said: Looks like Mac may try go trade the farm to move up. It won’t be easy nor cheap from back where the jets will be. http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/72943/jets-gm-gets-a-very-up-close-look-at-sam-darnold-josh-rosen At the very least, given the seeming research he is putting in, I think he's getting a QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bla bla bla Posted November 20, 2017 Share Posted November 20, 2017 11 hours ago, Jetsplayer21 said: Looks like Mac may try go trade the farm to move up. It won’t be easy nor cheap from back where the jets will be. http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york-jets/post/_/id/72943/jets-gm-gets-a-very-up-close-look-at-sam-darnold-josh-rosen Do whatever is needed to get the QB we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelly Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 4 hours ago, bla bla bla said: Do whatever is needed to get the QB we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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