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Analytics In Football


TuscanyTile2

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We know analytics are taking over baseball and we've seen the Browns go in that direction as well (though it hasn't been long so the jury is still out).   What do people think?  Will analytics eventually become very important in football too?

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36 minutes ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

We know analytics are taking over baseball and we've seen the Browns go in that direction as well (though it hasn't been long so the jury is still out).   What do people think?  Will analytics eventually become very important in football too?

apparently not as the Browns fired Brown and hired Dorsey as G.M.

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Football is much much more chaotic than baseball so getting analytics right is extremely difficult.  I'd bet that most/all teams are applying it in some watered down fashion or another right now.  That doesn't necessarily mean it's producing positive results. 

Maybe they'll program a supercomputers to analyse each game tape some day and that might help sort it all out.  We can call our Deep Green.      

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For some things analytics are clear.  Like when to go for it on 4th down or when to go for a 2point conversion.  But Football is notoriously difficult to get good data.  Watching the tape doesn't necessarily tell you what you want to know.  There is a lot of baiting in football, and without knowing the exact assignments by the coaches on any play all you are doing is guessing intent.

In Baseball, everyone does the same situations over and over again.  So you have a clear baseline.  But how do you get a clear baseline when you are evaluating a  QB who runs a unique playbook, and who is going up against a bunch of college defenses that are also running unique playbooks.

So while it does help with evaluating certain things (ok this WR gets a lot of statistical separation on his post routes), almost any good scout will be able to eyeball close to the same thing, so the marginal benefit is small.

However things improve over time.  More data is accumulated and the methods are refined. A good analytics department will eventually be a necessity for most teams.

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6 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

We know analytics are taking over baseball and we've seen the Browns go in that direction as well (though it hasn't been long so the jury is still out).   What do people think?  Will analytics eventually become very important in football too?

maybe eventually but it will probably take a huge effort.  the thing is baseball is really an individual sport so it's easier to assess a players performance.  in football every player is dependent on the play of the guy next to him and so on down the line.  plus baseball teams play 162 games per season.  that gives the players many more events track.

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9 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

We know analytics are taking over baseball and we've seen the Browns go in that direction as well (though it hasn't been long so the jury is still out).   What do people think?  Will analytics eventually become very important in football too?

If the Browns are leaning more heavily on analytics, I think we can all agree that it's NOT a good idea. 

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I think players use analytics all the time while playing.  they have "keys" that they focus on to let them know how a play will most likely unfold for their opponent on that particular play. 

 

The front office is where there is the most room for expanded use of analytics.  At the very least, a FO should be evaluating key positions that are needed to have a successful team and the current and predicted costs of these positions.  Going into the draft and FA, the FO must look at their own roster and what is available and determine if an incremental upgrade at one of these positions would be more favorable than an even larger upgrade at a non premium position on your team.  To me, a points system in this area would be beneficial along with salary info.  

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When you watch a baseball game you know if the shortstop or second baseman should have gotten to a certain ball. You can see and anylize what kind of range the outfielders have. In football unless you have the playbook of the team you are watching and know precisely what play and what read was called you have no idea who blocked in when they should have blocked out. Did the LB, Safety or slot CB have responsibiltiy for a certain zone or for picking up aRB coming out of back field. Was running back supposed to go inside but didn't see hole so switched to outside. The outsider has none of that information available to them when trying to analyze players on other teams.That is why the application of analytics to football will always be limited.

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The Seahawks use analytics well.  From what I hear the Jets are very old school and do not really use analytics.  I think the data can be helpful to equalize talent, but there are obviously other factors.  

For example, Burris' stats were not good, but Gholston's were great  

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

SPARQ Ratings alone prove advanced analytics have a place in the game.  It's very hard to evaluate whether players can make it at the next level.  Any data that can increase your chances of "hitting" on a pick is very useful.  

 

That is my point.  

When you look at the Pro Bowl rosters, you would think they would be all high draft picks and 5 star recruits before that.  But they are actually an assortment of draft picks, Udfa, top recruits and walkons.  Finding talent is an art. 

Scot McGloughan had figured it out pretty good.  Maybe we hire him to help now that Dorsey is hired away. 

I don't know why the Johnsons should trust Mac if Haslam did not trust Sashi.  

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16 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

We know analytics are taking over baseball and we've seen the Browns go in that direction as well (though it hasn't been long so the jury is still out).   What do people think?  Will analytics eventually become very important in football too?

It’s less a question when will they become important, that has already happened, and more when it goes mainstream.

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The problem is football metrics cannot be properly normalized. Different systems, personnel packages, coaches, tendencies, are all impossible to normalize for. In some instances they are great, in others they are worthless at best and dangerously misleading at worst.

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Possibly free agency to help determine the most valuable positions

Analytics on practice time? should not be hard to show how the new CBA reduced performance/skills across the NFL 

the biggest issue is Motivation - these guys spend many years working at this game before getting paid and it is hard to tell when they decide to quit - seems to be a growing trend

 

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23 hours ago, NoBowles said:

The problem is football metrics cannot be properly normalized. Different systems, personnel packages, coaches, tendencies, are all impossible to normalize for. In some instances they are great, in others they are worthless at best and dangerously misleading at worst.

Throw in the totally inconsistent officiating and numbers lie

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23 minutes ago, Jet_Engine1 said:

What do you guys think Ernie Adams does? 

Tendencies of offensive playcalls and formations. And defensive formation and strategy. Further tells of individual players; if the LT alters his stance, does it tell you if it's a pass or a run.Quality control plus for lack of a better description. 

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On 12/8/2017 at 8:42 AM, jmat321 said:

I think we once drafted a guy who jumped out of a pool.  If that’s not analytics, I don’t know what is.

Their thought process is “hell, we’ve sucked for Luck every single year and it hasn’t brought us anything but a fluke year by Derek Anderson. Might as well suck at analytics now.”

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5 hours ago, Bugg said:

Tendencies of offensive playcalls and formations. And defensive formation and strategy. Further tells of individual players; if the LT alters his stance, does it tell you if it's a pass or a run.Quality control plus for lack of a better description. 

That’s ‘analytics’ Bro

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