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Deshaun Watson v. Lamar Jackson


maury77

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this is going to be a fun thread. This is literally going to be up to peoples preference and if the value the "athlete"(Jackson) QB or the QB that is a little more traditional (Watson).

I'd say Watson has a the edge. I will enjoy reading the arguments that come up. 

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I think they are pretty close TBH. Lamar is a better runner and has a better arm. He also turns the ball over a lot less than Watson did (while the latter was surrounded by much better talent). The only areas where Watson is clearly superior are intangibles (and that's not a knock against Jackson) and play on the big stage. 

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6 hours ago, bla bla bla said:

Honestly I was less nervous about Watson but more excited about Jackson. Not sure if that makes sense. Jacksons frame and durability are really the only issue I have with him, I think he'll continue to get better.

It completely makes sense. Watson has a higher floor and Jackson has a higher ceiling. 

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As much as people like to diss the combine.  I do think it tells a tale for these players so i hope all the QBs go.

All you heard about before the combine was watsons arm, and velocity problems etc etc  as I watched the comibine i came to realize that his arm and velocity was near as good as anyones for functional Qb play and his accuracy was better than anyone else.

I want to see all of these guys at the combine and see them throw one after another, with my eye most on Jackson and mayfield.

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Is this a joke?  They're not comparable. 

Jackson is a run first QB.   This is the first season he has more completions than rush attempts.  He just cracked 60% comp, in college, in a QB friendly system for the first time in his career at 60.4%.  He's been absolutely atrocious vs. any resemblance of a talented D.  He's completed 50% or less of his passes in numerous games in his career. 

Watson was one of the most prolific passers in the NCAA history and raised his game to the level of competition.  He went to back to back National Champ games and shredded Bama twice, one for the win vs. what was being called the best D in the history of college.  It was the best performance I've ever seen from a college QB.  He never completed less than 67%, he threw 41 TD's his senior year.   He threw for 2,000 more yards and 33 more TD's on less starts than Jackson.

If you draft Lamar Jackson, you're hoping and praying he does something no actual comparable prospect has ever done. Transition from a run first QB with accuracy problems to a successful NFL QB.  It has yet to happen and I'm extremely confident Lamar Jackson isn't the guy to do it. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, JiF said:

Is this a joke?  They're not comparable. 

Jackson is a run first QB.   This is the first season he has more completions than rush attempts.  He just cracked 60% comp, in college, in a QB friendly system for the first time in his career at 60.4%.  He's been absolutely atrocious vs. any resemblance of a talented D.  He's completed 50% or less of his passes in numerous games in his career. 

Watson was one of the most prolific passers in the NCAA history and raised his game to the level of competition.  He went to back to back National Champ games and shredded Bama twice, one for the win vs. what was being called the best D in the history of college.  It was the best performance I've ever seen from a college QB.  He never completed less than 67%, he threw 41 TD's his senior year.   He threw for 2,000 more yards and 33 more TD's on less starts than Jackson.

If you draft Lamar Jackson, you're hoping and praying he does something no actual comparable prospect has ever done. Transition from a run first QB with accuracy problems to a successful NFL QB.  It has yet to happen and I'm extremely confident Lamar Jackson isn't the guy to do it. 

 

 

Jackson is run first but you are really underestimating his passing ability.  Not only can Jackson extend plays with his legs he can go through progressions and improvise

 

Last 2 seasons Lamar Jackson: 55tds 15 ints

 

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8 hours ago, JiF said:

Is this a joke?  They're not comparable. 

Jackson is a run first QB.   This is the first season he has more completions than rush attempts.  He just cracked 60% comp, in college, in a QB friendly system for the first time in his career at 60.4%.  He's been absolutely atrocious vs. any resemblance of a talented D.  He's completed 50% or less of his passes in numerous games in his career. 

Watson was one of the most prolific passers in the NCAA history and raised his game to the level of competition.  He went to back to back National Champ games and shredded Bama twice, one for the win vs. what was being called the best D in the history of college.  It was the best performance I've ever seen from a college QB.  He never completed less than 67%, he threw 41 TD's his senior year.   He threw for 2,000 more yards and 33 more TD's on less starts than Jackson.

If you draft Lamar Jackson, you're hoping and praying he does something no actual comparable prospect has ever done. Transition from a run first QB with accuracy problems to a successful NFL QB.  It has yet to happen and I'm extremely confident Lamar Jackson isn't the guy to do it. 

 

 

1) Jackson is a "run first" QB because he has a lot of RPOs and QB running plays that Petrino calls. Do you expect Jackson not to run the ball when the play call is a run? You can't blame that on Jackson. On actual pass plays, Jackson really grew up this year by learning to stay in the pocket and, when scrambling, keeping his eyes down field and looking to pass. Additionally, Petrino's offense is complex and lays a lot of responsibility on the QB. 

2) The two best teams he played this year, his passer ratings were 132.2 (Clemson) and NC State (121.4). Not excellent, but certainly not atrocious. 

3) Watson is an all time clutch player in college. He may have had less starts than Jackson, but Watson had more pass attempts (1207-1055), the same YPA (8.4) and Watson threw more picks (32-23). All this while throwing to multiple NFL targets (Deon Cain, the TE we drafted, the WR we drafted the year before and Mike Williams) and Jackson hasn't been throwing to any NFL targets. 

Again, I'm not saying one is clearly better than the other (I think they are both comparable), but I don't see why Jackson shouldn't go round 1 when Watson did. 

 

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13 hours ago, maury77 said:

1) Jackson is a "run first" QB because he has a lot of RPOs and QB running plays that Petrino calls. Do you expect Jackson not to run the ball when the play call is a run? You can't blame that on Jackson. On actual pass plays, Jackson really grew up this year by learning to stay in the pocket and, when scrambling, keeping his eyes down field and looking to pass. Additionally, Petrino's offense is complex and lays a lot of responsibility on the QB. 

2) The two best teams he played this year, his passer ratings were 132.2 (Clemson) and NC State (121.4). Not excellent, but certainly not atrocious. 

3) Watson is an all time clutch player in college. He may have had less starts than Jackson, but Watson had more pass attempts (1207-1055), the same YPA (8.4) and Watson threw more picks (32-23). All this while throwing to multiple NFL targets (Deon Cain, the TE we drafted, the WR we drafted the year before and Mike Williams) and Jackson hasn't been throwing to any NFL targets. 

Again, I'm not saying one is clearly better than the other (I think they are both comparable), but I don't see why Jackson shouldn't go round 1 when Watson did. 

 

1) Jackson is a run first QB because he's 100x times more effective as a runner than he is a passer.  The system he comes from, got high yielding passing results from guys like Ryan Mallet and Brian Brohm.  They weren't run first QB's.  Petrino didn't ask them to do that because they were more effective passer than runners.  I've never heard Petrino's being referred to as complex.  And as many times as Jackson looked to pass when scrambling, he much more often tucked it and ran.  And that's cool.  Dude is electric.  It's college, he should use his legs. 

2) Did you see the first half of those games?  He was atrocious. All his stats vs. Clemson came in the 4th quarter.  He was pathetically bad in the 1st half.  NC St. was very similar yet slightly better.  Both games, 50% and 55% passing, respectively...and if I'm not mistaken he went into the half vs. Clemson he completed like 30% and had a pick 6.  His stats came in garbage time when the game was a blow out.  He was also sacked like 5 times.

3) You're kind of proving my point here.  Watson threw ball a ton. Jackson not so much.  Mainly because, Watson was a prolific passer who could hurt you with his legs.  Whereas, Jackson was a prolific runner who could hurt you with his arm occasionally. 

Therefore, I don't not see them as comparable prospects.  I'd say Lamar Jackon is closer to Braxton Miller than Watson if we're looking for comparisons. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

1) Jackson is a run first QB because he's 100x times more effective as a runner than he is a passer.  The system he comes from, got high yielding passing results from guys like Ryan Mallet and Brian Brohm.  They weren't run first QB's.  Petrino didn't ask them to do that because they were more effective passer than runners.  I've never heard Petrino's being referred to as complex.  And as many times as Jackson looked to pass when scrambling, he much more often tucked it and ran.  And that's cool.  Dude is electric.  It's college, he should use his legs. 

2) Did you see the first half of those games?  He was atrocious. All his stats vs. Clemson came in the 4th quarter.  He was pathetically bad in the 1st half.  NC St. was very similar yet slightly better.  Both games, 50% and 55% passing, respectively...and if I'm not mistaken he went into the half vs. Clemson he completed like 30% and had a pick 6.  His stats came in garbage time when the game was a blow out.  He was also sacked like 5 times.

3) You're kind of proving my point here.  Watson threw ball a ton. Jackson not so much.  Mainly because, Watson was a prolific passer who could hurt you with his legs.  Whereas, Jackson was a prolific runner who could hurt you with his arm occasionally. 

Therefore, I don't not see them as comparable prospects.  I'd say Lamar Jackon is closer to Braxton Miller than Watson if we're looking for comparisons. 

 

 

1) Mark Schofield (ex college QB) discusses some of the complexities in Petrino's offense in the above video. It's good, you should check it out. 

2) I didn't watch NC State, but I watched parts of the Clemson game. Again, I didn't say he was good those games, but atrocious is a stretch for me. 

3) Agree to disagree. 

 

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On 12/13/2017 at 11:23 AM, JiF said:

Is this a joke?  They're not comparable. 

Jackson is a run first QB.   This is the first season he has more completions than rush attempts.  He just cracked 60% comp, in college, in a QB friendly system for the first time in his career at 60.4%.  He's been absolutely atrocious vs. any resemblance of a talented D.  He's completed 50% or less of his passes in numerous games in his career. 

Watson was one of the most prolific passers in the NCAA history and raised his game to the level of competition.  He went to back to back National Champ games and shredded Bama twice, one for the win vs. what was being called the best D in the history of college.  It was the best performance I've ever seen from a college QB.  He never completed less than 67%, he threw 41 TD's his senior year.   He threw for 2,000 more yards and 33 more TD's on less starts than Jackson.

If you draft Lamar Jackson, you're hoping and praying he does something no actual comparable prospect has ever done. Transition from a run first QB with accuracy problems to a successful NFL QB.  It has yet to happen and I'm extremely confident Lamar Jackson isn't the guy to do it. 

 

 

QFT

 

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21 hours ago, maury77 said:

1) Mark Schofield (ex college QB) discusses some of the complexities in Petrino's offense in the above video. It's good, you should check it out. 

2) I didn't watch NC State, but I watched parts of the Clemson game. Again, I didn't say he was good those games, but atrocious is a stretch for me. 

3) Agree to disagree. 

 

Thanks for posting, an interesting watch.  The plays he analyzed certainly didn't feature the complexity of the offense but I'm not going to pretend like I know the playbook.  That said, they were all 2 reads, with an outlet pass, only having to read one side of the field. The only play that he featured that even had routes on both sides of the field looked like it was a specific play call vs. that particular coverage and he only looked at one side of the field.

I'm cool with agreeing to disagree but I don't think I said anything inaccurate. Watson was a prolific passer and Jackson was/is not.

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On 12/13/2017 at 8:23 AM, JiF said:

Jackson is a run first QB.  

Gator to gator -- this is flat out wrong. Wholly wrong. Not this year, and even most of last. His willingness to hang in the pocket is better than Watson's, I'd even wager. 

There are sooooooo many misconceptions about Jackson, IMO. 

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

Gator to gator -- this is flat out wrong. Wholly wrong. Not this year, and even most of last. His willingness to hang in the pocket is better than Watson's, I'd even wager. 

There are sooooooo many misconceptions about Jackson, IMO. 

No, it’s not wrong.  This is the first season he’s had more completions than rush attempts.  He’s much more effective as a runner than a QB. Which is supported by his accuracy issues vs his run efficiency vs his rush attempts vs his completions.  Louisville would have been a better team this year if they weren’t more concerned with auditioning Jackson as passer in the NFL rather than letting him do what he does best. Run. 

 

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18 hours ago, Paradis said:

Gator to gator -- this is flat out wrong. Wholly wrong. Not this year, and even most of last. His willingness to hang in the pocket is better than Watson's, I'd even wager. 

There are sooooooo many misconceptions about Jackson, IMO. 

So many.  And besides with the success of Cam Newton and Russell Wilson what’s wrong with running qb’s?

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On 12/13/2017 at 8:05 PM, maury77 said:

1) Jackson is a "run first" QB because he has a lot of RPOs and QB running plays that Petrino calls. Do you expect Jackson not to run the ball when the play call is a run? You can't blame that on Jackson. On actual pass plays, Jackson really grew up this year by learning to stay in the pocket and, when scrambling, keeping his eyes down field and looking to pass. Additionally, Petrino's offense is complex and lays a lot of responsibility on the QB. 

2) The two best teams he played this year, his passer ratings were 132.2 (Clemson) and NC State (121.4). Not excellent, but certainly not atrocious. 

3) Watson is an all time clutch player in college. He may have had less starts than Jackson, but Watson had more pass attempts (1207-1055), the same YPA (8.4) and Watson threw more picks (32-23). All this while throwing to multiple NFL targets (Deon Cain, the TE we drafted, the WR we drafted the year before and Mike Williams) and Jackson hasn't been throwing to any NFL targets. 

Again, I'm not saying one is clearly better than the other (I think they are both comparable), but I don't see why Jackson shouldn't go round 1 when Watson did. 

 

Jackson will be a top 10 draft pick.  

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1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

So many.  And besides with the success of Cam Newton and Russell Wilson what’s wrong with running qb’s?

Cam and Russell weren't run first QB's.  They threw more than they ran in college and both completed a high percentage.  Cam 66% and Wilson completed over 70% of his passes in college his Senior year. 

Jackson ran more than he threw in college and barely cracked 60% this season for the first time in his college career at 60.4%.  

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Jackson will be a top 10 draft pick.  

I really can't see that happening. 

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20 hours ago, JiF said:

No, it’s not wrong.  This is the first season he’s had more completions than rush attempts.  He’s much more effective as a runner than a QB. Which is supported by his accuracy issues vs his run efficiency vs his rush attempts vs his completions.  Louisville would have been a better team this year if they weren’t more concerned with auditioning Jackson as passer in the NFL rather than letting him do what he does best. Run. 

 

Don't see it that way. I haven't checked stats, nor do i feel i need to. I've watched more than enough UL games to form a stable opinion of him - though it's just that, my opinion. Jackson shares far more in style and skill with Vick & Newton, than he does the scrambling athletes who pretend to be QBs. 

I feel very comfortable with that assessment. 

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27 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Don't see it that way. I haven't checked stats, nor do i feel i need to. I've watched more than enough UL games to form a stable opinion of him - though it's just that, my opinion. Jackson shares far more in style and skill with Vick & Newton, than he does the scrambling athletes who pretend to be QBs. 

I feel very comfortable with that assessment. 

I've watched him too, my man.  He's as an exciting player.  I rather enjoyed his college career.  And that's fine you don't want to look at the stats.  But in this scenario, I think it's very important to look at them because it tells a story:

Career rush attempts vs. pass completions: 630 at 6.9 per vs. 606 at 8.4 per.  

Career completion percentage: 57.4%.

It's an important story because he will be attempting to do something no QB has really ever done.  Transition from a running QB to an NFL passer. 

The positive things that you like to see is that his completion % went up every year, his TD to INT ratio is great and he completed more than he ran his senior year...that's nice progress.  But if you watched LU this year, you know damn well they were showcasing him for the NFL.  He was taking shots when last year he would have picked up an easy 15 with his legs.  And the play calling was different this year with less designed runs...and the offense was worse for it!

Even Mike Vick, who I don't think was ever a great NFL QB but a very scary weapon because of his legs, completed over 100 more passes than rush attempts in career in college.  His completion percentage was terrible and so was his TD to INT ratio and he never really developed a passing game.  

IDK man.  The draft is a crap shoot and you have to take the guys you like for the right reasons but stats like this have been damn near impossible to overcome for college players in the modern era.

 

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On 12/17/2017 at 10:33 AM, JiF said:

I've watched him too, my man.  He's as an exciting player.  I rather enjoyed his college career.  And that's fine you don't want to look at the stats.  But in this scenario, I think it's very important to look at them because it tells a story:

Career rush attempts vs. pass completions: 630 at 6.9 per vs. 606 at 8.4 per.  

Career completion percentage: 57.4%.

It's an important story because he will be attempting to do something no QB has really ever done.  Transition from a running QB to an NFL passer. 

The positive things that you like to see is that his completion % went up every year, his TD to INT ratio is great and he completed more than he ran his senior year...that's nice progress.  But if you watched LU this year, you know damn well they were showcasing him for the NFL.  He was taking shots when last year he would have picked up an easy 15 with his legs.  And the play calling was different this year with less designed runs...and the offense was worse for it!

Even Mike Vick, who I don't think was ever a great NFL QB but a very scary weapon because of his legs, completed over 100 more passes than rush attempts in career in college.  His completion percentage was terrible and so was his TD to INT ratio and he never really developed a passing game.  

IDK man.  The draft is a crap shoot and you have to take the guys you like for the right reasons but stats like this have been damn near impossible to overcome for college players in the modern era.

 

i don't time to get into everything here --- and i'll concede you wage a good war of words on some things I personally believe, the numbers mislead on. I see him find the right man, in the right coverage, and make the right throw enough times to know he has the bandwidth to become a Cam Newton caliber QB. Not promising that, but i'm saying he's not RG3 or Tyrod. He's not just another gangster with speed as they say. I wish the body of evidence supported that better, but there's a lot that UL asked him to do, that doesn't yield the same opportunity. 

You put him on a team like JAX with capable WRs, a dominant running game, and a decent defense -- and Lamar will take you as far as Kirk Cousins will.

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On 12/17/2017 at 1:33 PM, JiF said:

I've watched him too, my man.  He's as an exciting player.  I rather enjoyed his college career.  And that's fine you don't want to look at the stats.  But in this scenario, I think it's very important to look at them because it tells a story:

Career rush attempts vs. pass completions: 630 at 6.9 per vs. 606 at 8.4 per.  

Career completion percentage: 57.4%.

It's an important story because he will be attempting to do something no QB has really ever done.  Transition from a running QB to an NFL passer. 

The positive things that you like to see is that his completion % went up every year, his TD to INT ratio is great and he completed more than he ran his senior year...that's nice progress.  But if you watched LU this year, you know damn well they were showcasing him for the NFL.  He was taking shots when last year he would have picked up an easy 15 with his legs.  And the play calling was different this year with less designed runs...and the offense was worse for it!

Even Mike Vick, who I don't think was ever a great NFL QB but a very scary weapon because of his legs, completed over 100 more passes than rush attempts in career in college.  His completion percentage was terrible and so was his TD to INT ratio and he never really developed a passing game.  

IDK man.  The draft is a crap shoot and you have to take the guys you like for the right reasons but stats like this have been damn near impossible to overcome for college players in the modern era.

 

What about Dak Prescott as a comparison.  He had 536 rushes vs 734 completions with a 62.8% completion.

I think the biggest difference in these players is their build, as Lamar is thinner and less prepared for NFL pounding if he runs the ball, but I think the comparison Paradis is making is that if you put a guy like that on a team like Jacksonville, much as what happened with Prescott on the cowboys, they can make some big plays using play action and their running ability to be successful as they learn to be a better passer.

Personally Id rather have Mayfield, but Jackson is intriguing to me as well, certainly more then Josh Allen

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13 hours ago, Paradis said:

i don't time to get into everything here --- and i'll concede you wage a good war of words on some things I personally believe, the numbers mislead on. I see him find the right man, in the right coverage, and make the right throw enough times to know he has the bandwidth to become a Cam Newton caliber QB. Not promising that, but i'm saying he's not RG3 or Tyrod. He's not just another gangster with speed as they say. I wish the body of evidence supported that better, but there's a lot that UL asked him to do, that doesn't yield the same opportunity. 

You put him on a team like JAX with capable WRs, a dominant running game, and a decent defense -- and Lamar will take you as far as Kirk Cousins will.

We are clearly not convincing each other either way on this one.  All I'm saying is, he's attempting to do something no QB has ever done.  I'm a history guy because I think it tells a story.  Its just like, you don't take underclassman with 1 year of starting experience.  History is undefeated there too.  And where the draft is a complete crap shoot in a lot of ways, there are also historical trends that you cant deny where history is undefeated. 

 

 

 

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On 12/17/2017 at 9:16 AM, Philc1 said:

Jackson will be a top 10 draft pick.  

With the speed that we have at WR and RB (McGuire), Jackson could fun to watch in our offense.

My biggest concern is durability. Guys with his playing style tend to have a short shelf life in the NFL.

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48 minutes ago, BCJet said:

What about Dak Prescott as a comparison.  He had 536 rushes vs 734 completions with a 62.8% completion.

I think the biggest difference in these players is their build, as Lamar is thinner and less prepared for NFL pounding if he runs the ball, but I think the comparison Paradis is making is that if you put a guy like that on a team like Jacksonville, much as what happened with Prescott on the cowboys, they can make some big plays using play action and their running ability to be successful as they learn to be a better passer.

Personally Id rather have Mayfield, but Jackson is intriguing to me as well, certainly more then Josh Allen

It's not really a comparison because again, Dak threw more than he ran every single year and only had one year under 60% completion and his senior year he finished at 66.2%. 

Oh I agree, Jackson is intriguing and I can totally see a GM or Coach getting all caught up in his athleticism and wanting to see if they can be the one to make him into an NFL QB.  They'll just be attempting to do something never done before.

Over the past few weeks, Blake Bortles has been the best QB in Football.  I know that's hard to digest but it's 100% true.  Kid has been balling.  And if we were to review what I'm taking about from a historical stat perspective, Blake doesn't apply.  He threw the ball a ton in college, barely ran the ball and completed 65%, 68% his senior year. 

I'm not pulling this stuff out of thin air.  

 

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End of the day, I don't prefer the raw, run-first-pass-last, all-projected-talent-and-measurable type of prospect. 

An established winner with a long history of proper team building and player development can pick a guy like that......five years before they plan to dump their existing franchise QB.

We are not that team, and we cannot take that risk.  We're poor at development, we're have no QB now, and we're simply not in a position to take such a risky flier on a player with some theoretical "high ceiling" but a definitively NON-theoretical lowest-possible-floor.

In the third of fourth round?  Sure.  He can be the Kirk Cousins type pick, low-investment. 

In the top of the first round where we pick?  No.  Picking him is the kind of pick that kills a franchise for half a decade when it fails to pan out, and the odds favor it not panning out for the NY Jets specifically.

We should be drafting the best possible QB, with the best record of actual performance as a passer, and the highest possible passing accuracy available.  Not a glorified running back who happens to have a live arm too. 

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1 hour ago, sourceworx said:

With the speed that we have at WR and RB (McGuire), Jackson could fun to watch in our offense.

My biggest concern is durability. Guys with his playing style tend to have a short shelf life in the NFL.

We need to seriously overhaul the O-Line

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For what it's worth this is PFF completion percentages when drops are factored in. I think this used with the eye test of seeing where each of these QB's is actually placing the balls should be a pretty decent way to evaluate them. Petty got completions this past weekend but a lot of them were shoe string catches or did not put his receiver in position to make a play after the catch. 

 

Adjusted Completion %                  Adjusted Completion % Under Pressure

  ATT ADJ %   Pressure % ATT UP ADJ % UP
Rosen 453 74.4   29.7 113 68.8
Darnold 414 70.6   25.8 91 59.7
Jackson 400 73.1   34.4 107 66.3
Mayfield 348 82.6   25.4 71 70.0
Allen 252 65.7   39.0 84 52.2
Falk 535 74.7   25.8 106 65.9
Stidham 296 76.6   29.5 65 57.4

 

 

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