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Deshaun Watson v. Lamar Jackson


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48 minutes ago, BCJet said:

What about Dak Prescott as a comparison.  He had 536 rushes vs 734 completions with a 62.8% completion.

I think the biggest difference in these players is their build, as Lamar is thinner and less prepared for NFL pounding if he runs the ball, but I think the comparison Paradis is making is that if you put a guy like that on a team like Jacksonville, much as what happened with Prescott on the cowboys, they can make some big plays using play action and their running ability to be successful as they learn to be a better passer.

Personally Id rather have Mayfield, but Jackson is intriguing to me as well, certainly more then Josh Allen

It's not really a comparison because again, Dak threw more than he ran every single year and only had one year under 60% completion and his senior year he finished at 66.2%. 

Oh I agree, Jackson is intriguing and I can totally see a GM or Coach getting all caught up in his athleticism and wanting to see if they can be the one to make him into an NFL QB.  They'll just be attempting to do something never done before.

Over the past few weeks, Blake Bortles has been the best QB in Football.  I know that's hard to digest but it's 100% true.  Kid has been balling.  And if we were to review what I'm taking about from a historical stat perspective, Blake doesn't apply.  He threw the ball a ton in college, barely ran the ball and completed 65%, 68% his senior year. 

I'm not pulling this stuff out of thin air.  

 

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End of the day, I don't prefer the raw, run-first-pass-last, all-projected-talent-and-measurable type of prospect. 

An established winner with a long history of proper team building and player development can pick a guy like that......five years before they plan to dump their existing franchise QB.

We are not that team, and we cannot take that risk.  We're poor at development, we're have no QB now, and we're simply not in a position to take such a risky flier on a player with some theoretical "high ceiling" but a definitively NON-theoretical lowest-possible-floor.

In the third of fourth round?  Sure.  He can be the Kirk Cousins type pick, low-investment. 

In the top of the first round where we pick?  No.  Picking him is the kind of pick that kills a franchise for half a decade when it fails to pan out, and the odds favor it not panning out for the NY Jets specifically.

We should be drafting the best possible QB, with the best record of actual performance as a passer, and the highest possible passing accuracy available.  Not a glorified running back who happens to have a live arm too. 

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1 hour ago, sourceworx said:

With the speed that we have at WR and RB (McGuire), Jackson could fun to watch in our offense.

My biggest concern is durability. Guys with his playing style tend to have a short shelf life in the NFL.

We need to seriously overhaul the O-Line

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For what it's worth this is PFF completion percentages when drops are factored in. I think this used with the eye test of seeing where each of these QB's is actually placing the balls should be a pretty decent way to evaluate them. Petty got completions this past weekend but a lot of them were shoe string catches or did not put his receiver in position to make a play after the catch. 

 

Adjusted Completion %                  Adjusted Completion % Under Pressure

  ATT ADJ %   Pressure % ATT UP ADJ % UP
Rosen 453 74.4   29.7 113 68.8
Darnold 414 70.6   25.8 91 59.7
Jackson 400 73.1   34.4 107 66.3
Mayfield 348 82.6   25.4 71 70.0
Allen 252 65.7   39.0 84 52.2
Falk 535 74.7   25.8 106 65.9
Stidham 296 76.6   29.5 65 57.4

 

 

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5 hours ago, JiF said:

We are clearly not convincing each other either way on this one.  All I'm saying is, he's attempting to do something no QB has ever done.  I'm a history guy because I think it tells a story.  Its just like, you don't take underclassman with 1 year of starting experience.  History is undefeated there too.  And where the draft is a complete crap shoot in a lot of ways, there are also historical trends that you cant deny where history is undefeated.

so it's safe to say you're not on the Allen train then.

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26 minutes ago, Paradis said:

so it's safe to say you're not on the Allen train then.

**** no but more because he's Hack 2.0 than why I dislike (for lack of a better term) Jackson. 

And I want to preface, I don't hate Jackson.  I think he's an exciting and very appealing player.  He's just facing a history that is undefeated.  

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1 hour ago, bla bla bla said:

For what it's worth this is PFF completion percentages when drops are factored in. I think this used with the eye test of seeing where each of these QB's is actually placing the balls should be a pretty decent way to evaluate them. Petty got completions this past weekend but a lot of them were shoe string catches or did not put his receiver in position to make a play after the catch. 

 

Adjusted Completion %                  Adjusted Completion % Under Pressure

  ATT ADJ %   Pressure % ATT UP ADJ % UP
Rosen 453 74.4   29.7 113 68.8
Darnold 414 70.6   25.8 91 59.7
Jackson 400 73.1   34.4 107 66.3
Mayfield 348 82.6   25.4 71 70.0
Allen 252 65.7   39.0 84 52.2
Falk 535 74.7   25.8 106 65.9
Stidham 296 76.6   29.5 65 57.4

 

 

So Jackson gets a 13 point % swing and Allen a 10% swing?  That's hard to chew on.  I cant say I watched a lot of Allen but I watched Jackson and there were drops but that seems insanely high.

Darnold and his drop in comp % with pressure is interesting.  That could be his limited athleticism coupled with his wind-up.

 

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4 hours ago, JiF said:

So Jackson gets a 13 point % swing and Allen a 10% swing?  That's hard to chew on.  I cant say I watched a lot of Allen but I watched Jackson and there were drops but that seems insanely high.

Darnold and his drop in comp % with pressure is interesting.  That could be his limited athleticism coupled with his wind-up.

 

I think this makes me feel more comfortable from an accuracy standpoint because theoretically the WRs in the NFL should not have as many drops. Rosen, Jackson, Mayfield and Falk are all really accurate under pressure. I guess Stidham is worse because he plays in the SEC with harder defenses. I'm not sure but I think it opens the conversation up a bit more.

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I wrote this in 2016:  

 

Quote

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=drTUKZ1CAkA

These are the highlights from this past season, and obviously he looks like superman because these are highlights.  I don't have access to his game tapes yet, but just watching this, I wanted to point out some throws that just stood out, especially after looking at tapes from this year.  

:22-  This is a 3rd down throw, where he zips it between three defenders.  He shows very good arm strength and ball placement here.  This one just highlights his arm strength.  

:54-  This is a 30 yard throw facing pressure.  There are two defenders near the WR, so a laser throw here is most likely batted away, if not worse.  But he places it perfectly, right over them to where only his man could do anything with it.  

2:20-  This is a great throw, across the hash mark, and he places it perfectly.  

3:05-  Pretty much the definition of hitting a WR in stride.  

3:25-  This seems somewhat similar to one of the best passes from Mark Sanchez (to Holmes against Texans), perfectly placed.

4:45-  Another perfectly thrown pass from about 45 yards out.

7:10-  This is a normal connection, but notice when he throws the ball.  The ball is out before the WR makes his break, pretty much throwing his receiver open.  

8:02-  Blitz recognition, picked up the first down because he could run with the ball.

Is he perfect? No, but I can't show the bad plays yet.  But as far as prospects go, I think he's better than Winston (assuming he stays healthy next year), and I believe he had a great year after his No. 1 WR (Williams I believe) was injured and out for the year with a neck injury.  

Watson is the type of prospect, I sell the house for.  2 firsts and 2 second round picks?  I'd do it. 

 

 

I was super high on Watson at that point, and I really liked him until I heard the arm strength issues at the combine last year.  That made me a bit worried because the reports made it out like he was lobbing the ball out there.   

In the same vein, I don't think Jackson is a similar prospect to Watson, because they are extremely different in terms of how they play.  If you are comparing Jackson, you have to go to Vick/Pryor because he has that type of athleticism.  Defenses have to change game plans solely based on these guys.   Much like we talk about runners going against stacked boxes, we have to factor in a bit of mobile QBs going against stacked boxes, because it helps them retain one on one match ups down the field, because teams can't afford to lose the guy.  

Watson was far more accurate (albeit he had better receivers) in the sense that he had great ball placement.  Watson also seemed to read the field faster, move on from progressions.  Jackson is much more elusive in the open field, and a one on one nightmare.  Jackson also has better arm strength to make difficult throws.  

The big negative with Jackson or any mobility reliant QB is that their value takes a massive hit with a foot injury.  

I would love to take Jackson, as long as we also make the effort to run a fast paced system.  We can't run a west coast system based on precision timing with him.  If we go up-tempo, then I think he can be a stud.  I would place him below Vick but above Pryor.  

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On 12/19/2017 at 1:03 PM, JiF said:

So Jackson gets a 13 point % swing and Allen a 10% swing?  That's hard to chew on.  I cant say I watched a lot of Allen but I watched Jackson and there were drops but that seems insanely high.

Darnold and his drop in comp % with pressure is interesting.  That could be his limited athleticism coupled with his wind-up.

 

Check it out: this guy read my mind--

Quote

A quarterback’s footwork is a window to his mind. As I continue studying Lamar Jackson’s game, I see an intelligent, patient, and accurate passer when he begins the play with a plan. Even if the defense foils the plan early, Jackson makes good adjustments from a balanced position in both body and mind.

Jackson falters when he doesn’t have a technically sound starting point. This is a common issue for most quarterbacks because the process of throwing a football is a series of physical steps that build upon each other. If it doesn’t begin well, it often doesn’t end well.

Quarterbacking is a lot like playing a musical instrument. If the baseline technique isn’t consistent, the player lacks complete control and range over his instrument. Jackson makes sweet music and as he develops greater control over his instrument, he’ll be capable of consistent feats of virtuosity.

Notice I didn’t write “if he develops.” I’m confident he will because when he understands how to execute a physical process, he incorporates it into the reality of any given play. His three-step and five-step drops are good examples. Jackson integrates them well with a variety of play fakes, pump fakes, hitches, look-offs of coverage, as well as negotiating the pocket and knowing when to maintain or abandon a balanced form as a passer.

It’s when he doesn’t have a defined physical process as his starting point that his game deteriorates. This RSP Boiler Room examines a handful of Jackson’s throws that illustrate where his accuracy succeeds and fails based on the footwork of his drops as the precursor of his release.

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/07/18/rsp-boiler-room-no-101-qb-lamar-jackson-louisville-drops-and-accuracy/?utm_content=buffer60390&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

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1 hour ago, Paradis said:

The irony, the more he has to freelance, the worse he plays. Waldman is awesome. He and Schofield are my favorites at evaluating QBs. 

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16 hours ago, Paradis said:

That was a good read/watch.  I do chuckle at this stuff though, the breakdown during the process is ridiculous and getting more ridiculous every year.

Again, I'm not denying the kid has talent, he just has history working against him.  Like I've said numerous times, there are categories statistically where history is undefeated and Jackson is trying to do something no college QB like him has ever done.  If you're comfortable with that and love his potential, cool.  You can post every great play he's ever made and displayed NFL attributes.  It's fun to watch.  That said, nothing would change my mind and I wouldn't touch him because of I'm a fan of historical trends when it comes to the draft.  I'd especially not draft him for the Jets with this sh*t head regime, he's already got an uphill battle, he doesn't need anymore uncontrollable adversity. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

Kipper has ALLEN as the #11 overall prospects in the NFL draft. So, there's only 10 players in all of college that are considered better than Josh Allen in his eyes..

Fck this, i'm out--

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9 hours ago, maury77 said:

 

 

 

Target drop passes percentages: Lamar Jackson - 8.5% Baker Mayfield - 8.0% Josh Rosen - 7.5% Mason Rudolph - 6.6% Josh Allen - 4.8% Sam Darnold - 4.3% #SupportingCast

 

The fact that Mayfield's percentage can be even higher than 70% is absolutely bananas to me. I think this makes me feel more comfortable with any one of Rosen, Cousins, Mayfield, or Jackson.

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