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Albert Breer Draft Column


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Always interesting because he actually talks to personnel guys who are rating these players.  Mayfield comments

at the end are interesting:

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/12/27/2018-nfl-mock-draft-notes-marcus-davenport-quenton-nelson-tremaine-edmunds-derwin-james

This is not a mock draft. But, if you need to know, I did do all the work to put one together last week—our editors asked me to, and it’s actually a valuable exercise in that, by making calls, you learn where the league stands on prospects.

Long story short, we decided not to chase the clicks before the draft order is set and Black Monday comes and goes. Instead, I’m going to keep the full list to myself. For now. But I’m going to share with you what stuck out to me while vetting it with scouts from around the league, with some hints of where I had certain players landing . . .

Browns have a chance to clean up. Cleveland has five picks in the first two rounds, and $100 million in cap space (Sashi Brown’s parting gift to John Dorsey), but going through this helped me conceptualize it. They wound up landing both a franchise quarterback (Sam Darnold) and arguably the draft’s best overall player (Saquon Barkley) to support him, in the way Dak Prescott has Zeke Elliott. With the Texans’ pick in tow (acquired when Houston came up to get Deshaun Watson last spring, and likely to be No. 4), this can be a franchise-changing offseason in Northeast Ohio.

After four months of calling around, I feel good about the first four picks. And those are USC quarterback Sam Darnold, UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen, Penn State running back Saquon Barkley and N.C. State defensive end Bradley Chubb. My sense is that, provided they all come out (Darnold is a redshirt sophomore, Rosen and Barkley are juniors, Chubb is a senior), the quarterbacks are safe bets to go inside the Top 5, but it’s the other two who are among the three best players in this class.

And the third of the top-three overall prospects is a guard. That’s right, a guard. Notre Dame’s Quenton Nelson is probably the most agreed upon prospect that I’ve discussed with scouts. When I told an exec last week that I’d probably write that Nelson was “maybe a better guard prospect than ex-teammate Zack Martin,” he told me to take the “maybe” out of there. In 2014, Martin, you may remember, became the first rookie linemen to make first-team All-Pro in 57 years. I had Nelson going fifth in my mock.

The offensive linemen, in general, are pretty good. And they’re a lot better than they were last year, when none went in the first 15 picks for the first time in draft history. In addition to Nelson, I had his teammate, Mike McGlinchey and Conor Williams of Texas as left tackle prospects going inside the first eight picks, and five O-linemen in the first round.

You might have never heard of the guy I had to keep moving up. I mentioned UTSA edge rusher Marcus Davenport—a 6' 7" freak of a receiver-turned-pass rusher—a few weeks back. I didn’t have him in my early November mock. I put him at the end of the first round in the initial list I put together this time around, and then multiple execs told me he’s not getting out of the Top 15. I wound up putting him at 14, behind only Chubb among rushers, and Davenport clearly has a chance to rise higher.

You probably have heard of the guy I keep moving down. Florida State safety Derwin James arrived in Tallahassee in 2015, and his freakish play as a true freshman conjured images of super-sized safeties of the past, like Sean Taylor and Kam Chancellor. Then, he blew his knee out last year, and clearly didn’t look like the same player, according to scouts, when he came back in September. The redshirt sophomore has already declared for the draft, and made the call to skip the Independence Bowl. A lot of people were talking about him as a Top-5 pick earlier in the year. I had him going 11th in early November, and he fell to 18th (to Seattle) on my latest list.

Certain pipelines have stayed in working order. Over the last few years, Clemson has grown a rep for pumping out pass rushers, and I had three Tigers defensive linemen between the 21st and 27th picks—DT Christian Wilkins, and edge rushers Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant. Alabama has pumped out field-general linebackers under Nick Saban, and Rashaan Evans, who went 28th, is the next one. Ohio State is set to send its fifth first-round corner in five draft classes, Denzel Ward, to the league. And you could say the same for Norte Dame and the aforementioned O-linemen.

Two big-conference defenders helped themselves a lot this year. Remember the names Josh Jackson and Tremaine Edmunds. Jackson, a redshirt junior, is an Iowa corner. Edmunds is a junior linebacker at Virginia Tech. Based on the feedback I got, both are firmly in play to be the first players to go at their positions, in part because of how they played this fall, and in part because both are expected to have the edge in size over the consensus top players at their spot (Ward at cornerback; Georgia’s Roquan Smith at linebacker).

The players I’m most looking forward to watching in the playoffs are Baker Mayfield and Roquan Smith. I think Roquan Smith will be a huge part of the Bulldogs’ plans to pin Baker Mayfield in the pocket and prevent his normal theatrics. Do yourself a favor and watch Smith. He’s got the “I know where the play’s going before it goes there” thing that so many great ’backers have, and he could be an instant impact guy for a team that needs one (like Oakland) next year. I had him going 12th.

And as for Mayfield . . . I resisted the urge to move him up, and I stuck him 24th to the Saints again, because I really like the fit there. But I’m not going to rule out the idea that he’ll go higher. One evaluator I trust hated him earlier in the year, then went back and looked at the tape over the last couple weeks, and told me he was wrong. I think that might happen a bunch over the next few weeks. And I think Mayfield would be great for a team that might be looking for an heir, which the Saints would be, and teams like the Packers or Ravens could be. Either way, this guy is going to the story of this year’s draft cycle—the dissecting of his résumé is going to be fascinating.

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25 minutes ago, Jetsbb said:

I haven't heard much from the anti tankers recently. Stuck with Bowles and some OL with the 6th pick. Good times

I'm not sure anyone was against a high draft pick. I'd have to imagine the "anti-tank" crowd is really just a way of saying "don't try to intentionally lose" or "let's grade the roster". I think this year would be a bigger failure if we did not know what we had inqny of our recent additions and if our locker room went to sh*t. It's not like signing McCown was a juggernaut of a move hava the guy was 2-20 the last 3 seasons with all 3 teams who had him picking in the top 2 in the draft.

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14 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Wish we had the flexibility to get cute and try and wait on a guy like Mayfield to trade back into he first and take because I would love one of the top OL in this draft. These are the kinds of guys that stick there and don't have to worry about for the next decade.

Agreed but it's just too much of a risk in our position, maybe trade our two number two's to get back into the 1st and get an o-lineman?

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13 minutes ago, drsamuel84 said:

Agreed but it's just too much of a risk in our position, maybe trade our two number two's to get back into the 1st and get an o-lineman?

I think by the end of the 1st, the top guys will be gone and it'd be better to just stay put and try to get a guy like Billy Price in the 2nd. 

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I've been saying it for a while, the projections and breakdowns of Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson will be grade A entertainment.  They're going to be broken down to pieces before put back together and eventually being consensus second round picks but will both be late 1st round picks mystifying Jets fans when they punt on a 1st round QB yet again.

This guard talk reminds me wayyyyyy too much of Chance Warmack (one of the cleanest G prospects the draft has ever seen since Hutch) and Jonathan Cooper, both total busts for where they were selected meanwhile, Larry Warford taken in the 3rd round has had a much better career.  However, if they think Connor or McGlinchey are future stud T's, then the value is soooo much higher to go that route. 

Surprised he has Wilkins so low.  Dude is a monster.  If he blows up Bama's OL, I could see the opinions of him changing pretty quickly.  300lb men that move the way he can are rare.  I think he has the potential to be one of the best DT's in the NFL. 
 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

 

And as for Mayfield . . . I resisted the urge to move him up, and I stuck him 24th to the Saints again, because I really like the fit there. But I’m not going to rule out the idea that he’ll go higher. One evaluator I trust hated him earlier in the year, then went back and looked at the tape over the last couple weeks, and told me he was wrong. I think that might happen a bunch over the next few weeks. And I think Mayfield would be great for a team that might be looking for an heir, which the Saints would be, and teams like the Packers or Ravens could be. Either way, this guy is going to the story of this year’s draft cycle—the dissecting of his résumé is going to be fascinating.

Good article, except for the part where he looks at Mayfield as an "heir." If teams  think he is an NFL QB, a team in need of a QB NOW will snag him early in the top 10 simply because he has the maturity and experience and leadership to be able to step in and play day 1 even if he has played in gimmicky college systems.  When you draft an "heir" for Rodgers/Flacco you take a Josh Allen that could take 2 years to develop. 

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5 minutes ago, JiF said:

I've been saying it for a while, the projections and breakdowns of Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson will be grade A entertainment.  They're going to be broken down to pieces before put back together and eventually being consensus second round picks but will both be late 1st round picks mystifying Jets fans when they punt on a 1st round QB yet again.

This guard talk reminds me wayyyyyy too much of Chance Warmack (one of the cleanest G prospects the draft has ever seen since Hutch) and Jonathan Cooper, both total busts for where they were selected meanwhile, Larry Warford taken in the 3rd round has had a much better career.  However, if they think Connor or McGlinchey are future stud T's, then the value is soooo much higher to go that route. 

Surprised he has Wilkins so low.  Dude is a monster.  If he blows up Bama's OL, I could see the opinions of him changing pretty quickly.  300lb men that move the way he can are rare.  I think he has the potential to be one of the best DT's in the NFL. 
 

 

 

 

Personally, I'd feel a lot better signing Cousins, drafting McGlinchey in the 1st and a Guice in round 2 (And then BPA with our other 2nd rounder). Our offense would go from league worst, to the makings of a high powered offense over night. We would still  have enough cap space/draft picks to hopefully address CB/pass rusher etc..

Obviously, the ideal situation is to draft a franchise QB,  but then you are counting on the Jets being able to develop a young QB....

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17 minutes ago, JiF said:

I've been saying it for a while, the projections and breakdowns of Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson will be grade A entertainment.  They're going to be broken down to pieces before put back together and eventually being consensus second round picks but will both be late 1st round picks mystifying Jets fans when they punt on a 1st round QB yet again.

This guard talk reminds me wayyyyyy too much of Chance Warmack (one of the cleanest G prospects the draft has ever seen since Hutch) and Jonathan Cooper, both total busts for where they were selected meanwhile, Larry Warford taken in the 3rd round has had a much better career.  However, if they think Connor or McGlinchey are future stud T's, then the value is soooo much higher to go that route. 

Surprised he has Wilkins so low.  Dude is a monster.  If he blows up Bama's OL, I could see the opinions of him changing pretty quickly.  300lb men that move the way he can are rare.  I think he has the potential to be one of the best DT's in the NFL. 
 

 

 

 

Taking a guard in the 1t is like taking a safety. And it's not only not a premium slot, a lot of college OTs get shifted to guard in the NFL. Would be typical of Maccagnan not understanding the relative value of positions. 

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6 minutes ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Personally, I'd feel a lot better signing Cousins, drafting McGlinchey in the 1st and a Guice in round 2 (And then BPA with our other 2nd rounder). Our offense would go from league worst, to the makings of a high powered offense over night. We would still  have enough cap space/draft picks to hopefully address CB/pass rusher etc..

Obviously, the ideal situation is to draft a franchise QB,  but then you are counting on the Jets being able to develop a young QB....

I haven't dug my heels on who or what I want in the 1st yet, still a lot of time to go.  That said, I'm in the Cousins camp for sure.  I don't love the QB's this year that will be available and I don't trust this regime selecting/developing a QB.  This looks to be a pretty deep draft at a lot of positions, especially RB.  I like Guice a lot but there are some sleepers in this draft too - like Ralph Webb or Jordan Scarlett.  I think both could be steals in the late rounds.  

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2 hours ago, JiF said:

I've been saying it for a while, the projections and breakdowns of Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson will be grade A entertainment.  They're going to be broken down to pieces before put back together and eventually being consensus second round picks but will both be late 1st round picks mystifying Jets fans when they punt on a 1st round QB yet again.

This guard talk reminds me wayyyyyy too much of Chance Warmack (one of the cleanest G prospects the draft has ever seen since Hutch) and Jonathan Cooper, both total busts for where they were selected meanwhile, Larry Warford taken in the 3rd round has had a much better career.  However, if they think Connor or McGlinchey are future stud T's, then the value is soooo much higher to go that route. 

Surprised he has Wilkins so low.  Dude is a monster.  If he blows up Bama's OL, I could see the opinions of him changing pretty quickly.  300lb men that move the way he can are rare.  I think he has the potential to be one of the best DT's in the NFL. 
 

 

 

 

Baker Mayfield will probably end up getting me banned on this site before the draft.

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2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

Personally, I'd feel a lot better signing Cousins, drafting McGlinchey in the 1st and a Guice in round 2 (And then BPA with our other 2nd rounder). Our offense would go from league worst, to the makings of a high powered offense over night. We would still  have enough cap space/draft picks to hopefully address CB/pass rusher etc..

Obviously, the ideal situation is to draft a franchise QB,  but then you are counting on the Jets being able to develop a young QB....

They gotta pick and develop one at some point lol.

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16 minutes ago, Patriot Killa said:

They gotta pick and develop one at some point lol.

No they don't. They can keep signing stopgaps like McCown and Fitzpatrick and continue to pick middle round slugs. Personally I think Maccagnan is way too much of a pussy to actually pull the trigger on a first round QB. 

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5 minutes ago, Pennington said:

No they don't. They can keep signing stopgaps like McCown and Fitzpatrick and continue to pick middle round slugs. Personally I think Maccagnan is way too much of a pussy to actually pull the trigger on a first round QB. 

I think you let your hate for Mac blind you. He isn’t a ******* 7 year old lol. Everyone and their mother knows we need a 1st round QB. 

And no..we cant keep signing stop gaps. The only reason we kept signing stop gaps was to provide a bridge..we know that Hack/Petty ain’t anything to be building a bridge to. This isn’t going to happen again. Get real. 

 

Edit:  didn’t he try to move up for Goff at one? Oh yeah.

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3 hours ago, JiF said:

I've been saying it for a while, the projections and breakdowns of Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson will be grade A entertainment.  They're going to be broken down to pieces before put back together and eventually being consensus second round picks but will both be late 1st round picks mystifying Jets fans when they punt on a 1st round QB yet again.

This guard talk reminds me wayyyyyy too much of Chance Warmack (one of the cleanest G prospects the draft has ever seen since Hutch) and Jonathan Cooper, both total busts for where they were selected meanwhile, Larry Warford taken in the 3rd round has had a much better career.  However, if they think Connor or McGlinchey are future stud T's, then the value is soooo much higher to go that route. 

Surprised he has Wilkins so low.  Dude is a monster.  If he blows up Bama's OL, I could see the opinions of him changing pretty quickly.  300lb men that move the way he can are rare.  I think he has the potential to be one of the best DT's in the NFL. 
 

 

 

 

So we are drafting a guard in the first round? That’s my take . 

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Just now, Patriot Killa said:

I think you let your hate for Mac blind you. He isn’t a ******* 7 year old lol. Everyone and their mother knows we need a 1st round QB. 

And no..we cant keep signing stop gaps. The only reason we kept signing stop gaps was to provide a bridge..we know that Hack/Petty ain’t anything to be building a bridge to. This isn’t going to happen again. Get real. 

We needed a first round QB last year just as much and this idiot decided to pick an in the box safety instead. I was fine with the decision to pass on Watson which looks like a big mistake but I wanted to trade down and pick up a 2018 first round pick like Buffalo did.

If we weren't going to pick a QB in the last draft because we were all in on Darnold/Rosen for 2018 we should have just gone with Petty and Hack. Instead this GM went out and signed McCown and traded for Kearse just so we could win 5 games instead of 1 or 2. Now that we are picking in the 8 range we have to trade up for a QB and I just don't see this GM being willing to pay what it will cost to move up to 3 in the draft.

Sorry but everything this GM has done in regards to the QB position has been "safe" and gutless. I truly believe that Maccagnan is gun shy after seeing what an epic bust Hackenberg is and will do what he has done the last three seasons as GM to "solve" our QB mess. This guy has absolutely no business keeping his job and will only do so because our ownership is dumb and spineless. 

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3 minutes ago, Pennington said:

We needed a first round QB last year just as much and this idiot decided to pick an in the box safety instead. I was fine with the decision to pass on Watson which looks like a big mistake but I wanted to trade down and pick up a 2018 first round pick like Buffalo did.

If we weren't going to pick a QB in the last draft because we were all in on Darnold/Rosen for 2018 we should have just gone with Petty and Hack. Instead this GM went out and signed McCown and traded for Kearse just so we could win 5 games instead of 1 or 2. Now that we are picking in the 8 range we have to trade up for a QB and I just don't see this GM being willing to pay what it will cost to move up to 3 in the draft.

Sorry but everything this GM has done in regards to the QB position has been "safe" and gutless. I truly believe that Maccagnan is gun shy after seeing what an epic bust Hackenberg is and will do what he has done the last three seasons as GM to "solve" our QB mess. This guy has absolutely no business keeping his job and will only do so because our ownership is dumb and spineless. 

I didn’t want Watson either. Neither did a lot of people here. 

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Macc's rule in the first round is to take the best available player, regardless of position. he did it with Williams and with Adams and he'll do it again this time around once more. Don't expect him to take a flyer on a QB. If Bowles sticks around, he'll sign a high priced free agent QB, then take that Wyoming QB in the 2nd round....if he's still there that is.

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3 minutes ago, Pennington said:

We needed a first round QB last year just as much and this idiot decided to pick an in the box safety instead. I was fine with the decision to pass on Watson which looks like a big mistake but I wanted to trade down and pick up a 2018 first round pick like Buffalo did.

If we weren't going to pick a QB in the last draft because we were all in on Darnold/Rosen for 2018 we should have just gone with Petty and Hack. Instead this GM went out and signed McCown and traded for Kearse just so we could win 5 games instead of 1 or 2. Now that we are picking in the 8 range we have to trade up for a QB and I just don't see this GM being willing to pay what it will cost to move up to 3 in the draft.

Sorry but everything this GM has done in regards to the QB position has been "safe" and gutless. I truly believe that Maccagnan is gun shy after seeing what an epic bust Hackenberg is and will do what he has done the last three seasons as GM to "solve" our QB mess. This guy has absolutely no business keeping his job and will only do so because our ownership is dumb and spineless. 

I dont think he has the latitude anymore to do another "pass the buck, kick the can" type of move. GM's only have so long they can skip drafting a QB when you dont have one and he passed twice already in the 1st rd of the draft. I get that the players picked were rated higher than our pick and in his mind he was going for value. Ok, even if I give him that point the clock is ticking and he will have to go "against the grain" and pick a QB no matter what this year. Unfortunately the whole world knows it and if he has to move up he is gonna get raped on a deal unless he signs cousins to a 4 year deal (voidable 4th yr), trades hid 2nd rd picks to get back into the 1 rd rd and then picks Allen or another developmental QB late. 

Has that kind of dealing been his mo? HELL NO!! lol but I think the rope is only so long in the NFL and he doesnt exactly have a track record that will let him pass a third opportunity to get it right. Survival instincts have to kick in at some point. 

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21 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Macc's rule in the first round is to take the best available player, regardless of position. he did it with Williams and with Adams and he'll do it again this time around once more. Don't expect him to take a flyer on a QB. If Bowles sticks around, he'll sign a high priced free agent QB, then take that Wyoming QB in the 2nd round....if he's still there that is.

Nope - two back to back 5-11 seasons and no playoffs in 3 seasons demand that they do something drastic - we'll either sign a FA qb or draft one in the first 

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1 hour ago, Jack Straw said:

Every few years, when the Jets are flush with cash to spend on free-agents, they go into the off-season with the same lofty goal: How do we get to 9 wins. Because that's all this organization cares about. 

That's why they pick safeties at the top of the draft. That's why they pick undersized middle linebackers. That's why they pick defensive tackles to play defensive end in their 3-4 scheme.

In the last 52 years, since the Jets drafted Joe Namath, the Jets have picked 4 QBs in the first round of the draft: Mark Sanchez, Chad Pennington, Ken O'Brien, and Richard Todd.

So don't be surprised when the Jets don't use their #1 pick on a quarterback. They'll sign Kirk Cousins and blow their cash on "pieces" to surround him with. They'll get their 9 wins, pat themselves on the back for a job well done, and go into-cap hell in 2-3 years so they can just tear everything down and start over again.

I hate everything about this organization.

so the organization has no aspirations to win a Super Bowl? They just want 9 wins. No more, no less.

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30 minutes ago, RESNewYork said:

so the organization has no aspirations to win a Super Bowl? They just want 9 wins. No more, no less.

In the last 57 years, the Jets have won 12 games exactly one time, and have never exceeded that number. Let that sink in for a second. They've won more than 11 games only ONE time in 57 years of existence.

The Jets, as an organization, are perfectly comfortable and strive towards being completely average. And if some seasons they're slightly below average (7-9 or 8-8) or slightly above average (9-7 or 10-6), then so be it. It's right where they want to be.

The Bills have won 12 games or more 5 times. The Dolphins have won 12 games or more 5 times. The Patriots have won 12 games or more 12 times since 2003.

Your New York Jets? One time in 57 years.

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1 minute ago, Jack Straw said:

In the last 57 years, the Jets have won 12 games exactly one time, and have never exceeded that number. Let that sink in for a second. They've won more than 11 games only ONE time in 57 years of existence.

The Jets, as an organization, are perfectly comfortable and strive towards being completely average. And if some seasons they're slightly below average (7-9 or 8-8) or slightly above average (9-7 or 10-6), then so be it. It's right where they want to be.

Sure.

Every NFL team strives to win a SB. 

Not the Jets. Their goal is 8-8.

Forget all the notoriety, status, Press, and most important, the money that would come from a SB victory.

It's amazing that the Jets have been able to consistently reach their goal of being close to .500. 

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