2017 First Round QBs Stronger than Rosen and Darnold?

[DavidO]

IMO, this draft is deep in QB talent. There is 6-7 guys in my mind who could become outstanding NFL QB's. Just gotta pick one and pray. 

Maybe we should pick 2?????


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[maury77]

If the 2017 guys were in this year's class, I'd rank them:

Watson

Rosen

Darnold

Jackson/Mayfield

Trubisky

Mahomes

Allen

[Philc1]

This draft class was so overrated 

[Sonny Werblin]

16 hours ago, ljr said:

Not sure who or what you are actually referring to ... But as you posted this right after my " all in" on Darnold post ... I'll respond.

 

i believe Darnold is legit ... JMO ... Haven't said different last year or this year ... Could care less about bragging rights a year from now ... But I would LOVE if Cleveland is somehow dumb enough to trade him for this years 1,2,2 & next years 1,2  

My only fear with Darnold is that he may love surfing more than football.

[FTL Jet Fan]

If we don't target the QB we want at 6 or move up we take a huge risk in settling for a later round pick. There are too many teams that want a QB, if we trade back and try to be slick and get the guy we want someone will  easily jump ahead of us. If the front office loves a QB and he is there at 6 take him no matter what anyone thinks. I am all for picking up extra picks but this year is about getting the right QB. Hopefully. This is obviously a moot point until FA is over.

 

[Warfish]

23 hours ago, ljr said:

I'm all in on Darnold & def would try offering Cleveland the farm for him

the others I can sway back & forth on ... I have a hard time offering too much to trade up to 3 if Darnold & Rosen are both off the board though

 

 

 

 

Help me understand how trading our #1, both #2's and next year's #1 for Darnold is the right choice.

You'd have to be so convinced that the prospect in question is near on 100% a sure thing, 15 year, franchise QB level player to trade that much for him (the likely cost).

To me, for this player, that sounds like Cleveland-like insanity.

So help me understand.

[Snell41]

6 QB’s are going first round this year, and we better ******* draft one of them.


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[SMC]

It's Florio, so, yeah, whatever

But Macc will take it to his grave passing on Watson.

[JustInFudge]

5 hours ago, Philc1 said:

This draft class was so overrated 

Phil, I said this in May of 2017.   I was laughed at and ridiculed by 90% of this board. 

[dbatesman]

5 hours ago, maury77 said:

If the 2017 guys were in this year's class, I'd rank them:

Watson

Rosen

Darnold

Jackson/Mayfield

Trubisky

Mahomes

Allen

I'd put Mayfield and Mahomes squarely above Jackson and insert a dozen carriage returns between everyone else and Trubisky/Allen, but otherwise this seems about right to me.

[ChuckkieB]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Help me understand how trading our #1, both #2's and next year's #1 for Darnold is the right choice.

You'd have to be so convinced that the prospect in question is near on 100% a sure thing, 15 year, franchise QB level player to trade that much for him (the likely cost).

To me, for this player, that sounds like Cleveland-like insanity.

So help me understand.

You have to think big to win big.  Alex Smith or Sam Bradford isn't going to get the Jets the sustained success we all are craving as fans.  A franchise QB will.  The Jets strategy and approach over the last few decades clearly hasn't worked, so I'm all for going all in on Darnold or Rosen at the top of the first round.  

 

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Help me understand how trading our #1, both #2's and next year's #1 for Darnold is the right choice.

You'd have to be so convinced that the prospect in question is near on 100% a sure thing, 15 year, franchise QB level player to trade that much for him (the likely cost).

To me, for this player, that sounds like Cleveland-like insanity.

So help me understand.

The only thing we have to be convinced of is that Sanchez/Geno/Fitz/Fitz/McCown/McCown is cruel and unusual punishment for the fan base.  

Macc has scouted the crap out of the QBs the past three offseasons.  It’s time to stop d****** around And go get your guy.  

Why sit on your hands and wait for QBs are left over.  Find the best one and go get him.  No matter what it cost.  

Essentially we’d be trading 1-6 (Adams), 2-5 (D. Smith), (2-17 Hackenberg), 2019 #1(Darron Lee), and another 2 (Maye).

Essentially I would be willing to give up our last two #1s and our last three #2s if it was for Darnold or Rosen.  

Say what you want about these guys but both have gone through the entire country dissecting every decision and throw already and they are still the consensus #1 & #2 picks.

None of last year’s QBs has to endure anything like the scrutiny that Darnold or Rosen have endured until the combine.

[Warfish]

19 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

You have to think big to win big.  Alex Smith or Sam Bradford isn't going to get the Jets the sustained success we all are craving as fans.  A franchise QB will.

And if you had a franchise QB in hand, available at pick #6 without trading half our future or 30 million a year for him, I might be more on that side.

Quote

The Jets strategy and approach over the last few decades clearly hasn't worked, so I'm all for going all in on Darnold or Rosen at the top of the first round.  

I just don't see what you seem to see in Sam Darnold and his interceptions vs. minor league DB's that paints him as a future Peyton Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Drew Brees or Tom Brady.

Future Mark Sanchez maybe.  

[Warfish]

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

The only thing we have to be convinced of is that Sanchez/Geno/Fitz/Fitz/McCown/McCown is cruel and unusual punishment for the fan base.  

On that we agree.

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Macc has scouted the crap out of the QBs the past three offseasons.  It’s time to stop d****** around And go get your guy.  

You realize that Macc's guy is likely McCown, right?  With a side dose of Hack and Josh Allen.

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Why sit on your hands and wait for QBs are left over.  Find the best one and go get him.  No matter what it cost.  

A good way to become the Browns.  That QB won't look so hot behind a makeshift O-line and throwing/handing to C-grade talent.  Feel like we've been here before..... 

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Essentially we’d be trading 1-6 (Adams), 2-5 (D. Smith), (2-17 Hackenberg), 2019 #1(Darron Lee), and another 2 (Maye).

Or trading a different, better QB (Mayfield 1-6), a ten-year staring Center (2-5), a ten-year starting Guard (2-17) and a ten-year starting O-tackle (2019 #1) for Mark Sanchez II.

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

Say what you want about these guys but both have gone through the entire country dissecting every decision and throw already and they are still the consensus #1 & #2 picks.

What do you think that means exactly?  It certainly doesn't mean success at the Pro level.

16 minutes ago, Pcola said:

None of last year’s QBs has to endure anything like the scrutiny that Darnold or Rosen have endured until the combine.

Um, yes, they all did.  Or have your forgotten the "Watson throws a ball a few mph too slow to be a franchise QB" threads?

[#27TheDominator]

I tend to think that Darnold/Rosen have been a bit overhyped, but remember - 3 teams traded up for QBs last year.  Two gave up their 2018 1st rounder.  I would imagine those scouts/front offices have a vested interest in thinking the 2017 class was better than the 2018 class.  Even if they don't believe it, they have to sell it. 

[ChuckkieB]

29 minutes ago, Warfish said:

And if you had a franchise QB in hand, available at pick #6 without trading half our future or 30 million a year for him, I might be more on that side.

I just don't see what you seem to see in Sam Darnold and his interceptions vs. minor league DB's that paints him as a future Peyton Manning, Ben Rothlisberger, Drew Brees or Tom Brady.

Future Mark Sanchez maybe.  

I'd be fine with ANY QB the Jets drafted at #6.

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert when it comes to evaluating players, but the consensus is that Rosen and Darnold are projected to be drafted #1 and #2, which includes a lot of folks who have way more draft knowledge and expertise than I do.  Does draft position guarantee success?  Nope, but taking a chance on what most consider blue chip prospects is a gamble I'd be willing to take.

The bottom line is that as long as the Jets draft a QB in the first round, I will be happy. 

[JustInFudge]

7 hours ago, maury77 said:

If the 2017 guys were in this year's class, I'd rank them:

Watson

Rosen

Darnold

Jackson/Mayfield

Trubisky

Mahomes

Allen

Fun!

I'd go Watson > Rosen > Mahomes > Trubisky > Darnold > Mayfield > Jackson > Allen

Watson because he probably the most special prospect/player to come out of the draft since I cant remember when.

Rosen because the dude has all the goods despite being a millennial dbag.

Mahomes because he does things you cant teach.

Trubisky, although I hate underclassmen with 1 year of starting, he's so much cleaner than these other guys.  Though I'd never take a player like that.

Darnold purely on the hype and hope.

Mayfield > Jackson and Allen because they're both really bad at passing which is important in the NFL. 

 

 

 

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

I'd be fine with ANY QB the Jets drafted at #6.

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert when it comes to evaluating players, but the consensus is that Rosen and Darnold are projected to be drafted #1 and #2, which includes a lot of folks who have way more draft knowledge and expertise than I do.  Does draft position guarantee success?  Nope, but taking a chance on what most consider blue chip prospects is a gamble I'd be willing to take.

The bottom line is that as long as the Jets draft a QB in the first round, I will be happy. 

I understand.

Just know that that gamble likely dooms your franchise for 4-5 seasons if it's a miss.

4-5 years where the organization feels it has to play the QB, no matter how bad.

4-5 years where your overall team talent is materially reduced by a number of high-draft-pick spots that should be ten-year starters locking down vital positions.

If the guy is anything less than a franchise QB, you've screwed your team.  

The odds are too poor for my tastes, and these specific players (Rosen, the injury risk, Darnold, the Interception machine from USC, the House of Sanchez) are just not good enough to risk it.

The other route, the conservative route, while less glamorous, serves the now AND the future.  You get a cheaper QB for now, and a legit prospect (as legit as these other two at the least) to develop.  And you get 4-5 more day 1/2 picks to lock down multiple positions.

[JustInFudge]

3 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I understand.

Just know that that gamble likely dooms your franchise for 4-5 seasons if it's a miss.

4-5 years where the organization feels it has to play the QB, no matter how bad.

4-5 years where your overall team talent is materially reduced by a number of high-draft-pick spots that should be ten-year starters locking down vital positions.

If the guy is anything less than a franchise QB, you've screwed your team.  

The odds are too poor for my tastes, and these specific players (Rosen, the injury risk, Darnold, the Interception machine from USC, the House of Sanchez) are just not good enough to risk it.

The other route, the conservative route, while less glamorous, serves the now AND the future.  You get a cheaper QB for now, and a legit prospect (as legit as these other two at the least) to develop.  And you get 4-5 more day 1/2 picks to lock down multiple positions.

Are you positing this under the impression that the Jets would be trading up?  

Just curious because the post you responded to was talking about taking a QB at 6/1st round and I didn't see Chuckie say anything about trading up.  Just referring to Darnold and Rosen as being consensus #1 and #2.

 

[ChuckkieB]

5 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I understand.

Just know that that gamble likely dooms your franchise for 4-5 seasons if it's a miss.

4-5 years where the organization feels it has to play the QB, no matter how bad.

4-5 years where your overall team talent is materially reduced by a number of high-draft-pick spots that should be ten-year starters locking down vital positions.

If the guy is anything less than a franchise QB, you've screwed your team.  

The odds are too poor for my tastes, and these specific players (Rosen, the injury risk, Darnold, the Interception machine from USC, the House of Sanchez) are just not good enough to risk it.

The other route, the conservative route, while less glamorous, serves the now AND the future.  You get a cheaper QB for now, and a legit prospect (as legit as these other two at the least) to develop.  And you get 4-5 more day 1/2 picks to lock down multiple positions.

All valid points, but I still think it's worth the risk.  I think you are going to get your wish though because our GM's thinking so far has been closer to yours than mine.

[Warfish]

4 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

All valid points, but I still think it's worth the risk.  I think you are going to get your wish though because our GM's thinking so far has been closer to yours than mine.

I doubt I get what I want.

I see Macc going with resigning McCown, drafting a CB at #6, and maybe snagging a low-tier prospect with one of the two #2 picks. 

Hell, with Macc being Macc, I'll be lucky if we even draft an O-lineman this cycle.

No, sadly, I expect to be exceedingly dissapointed this offseason.

[Pcola]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

On that we agree.

You realize that Macc's guy is likely McCown, right?  With a side dose of Hack and Josh Allen.

A good way to become the Browns.  That QB won't look so hot behind a makeshift O-line and throwing/handing to C-grade talent.  Feel like we've been here before..... 

Or trading a different, better QB (Mayfield 1-6), a ten-year staring Center (2-5), a ten-year starting Guard (2-17) and a ten-year starting O-tackle (2019 #1) for Mark Sanchez II.

What do you think that means exactly?  It certainly doesn't mean success at the Pro level.

Um, yes, they all did.  Or have your forgotten the "Watson throws a ball a few mph too slow to be a franchise QB" threads?

If Macc’s long term solution at QB is any of McCown, Hack, or Allen, this will be his last year as a GM in the NFL.  

And to become the Browns, you have to pass on franchise QBs year after year while settling in on dogsh** in the second round.  Pretty much what we’ve done because we haven’t been in position to get a FQB in the first.

And if you somehow think we are going to get a FQB, and three ten year starters on the O-Line, I’m going to reference every freaking draft in the organization’s history and say unlikely.

And finally, Watson’s critique started at the combine not Sept 2 when everyone started blasting Darnold.  Every pass Darnold and Rosen have thrown this year, has been under the fire by every casual football fan to say they are not the guy to lead an NFL franchise.  Despite an overwhelming majority of negativity that surrounded the both of them, somehow, they are still the consensus #1 and #2 picks in this draft.

[Pcola]

31 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I understand.

Just know that that gamble likely dooms your franchise for 4-5 seasons if it's a miss.

4-5 years where the organization feels it has to play the QB, no matter how bad.

4-5 years where your overall team talent is materially reduced by a number of high-draft-pick spots that should be ten-year starters locking down vital positions.

If the guy is anything less than a franchise QB, you've screwed your team.  

The odds are too poor for my tastes, and these specific players (Rosen, the injury risk, Darnold, the Interception machine from USC, the House of Sanchez) are just not good enough to risk it.

The other route, the conservative route, while less glamorous, serves the now AND the future.  You get a cheaper QB for now, and a legit prospect (as legit as these other two at the least) to develop.  And you get 4-5 more day 1/2 picks to lock down multiple positions.

I agree whole heartedly.  But what is the alternative?  Alex Smith for 2 years?  Bradford?  Hoping McCown has another career year?

TB, TEN, LAR, and Phi took the gamble.  And three of them are in the playoffs.  

[prime21]

7 hours ago, maury77 said:

If the 2017 guys were in this year's class, I'd rank them:

Watson

Rosen

Darnold

Jackson/Mayfield

Trubisky

Mahomes

Allen

Watson based on what we saw in the season?

[ChuckkieB]

17 minutes ago, Warfish said:

I doubt I get what I want.

I see Macc going with resigning McCown, drafting a CB at #6, and maybe snagging a low-tier prospect with one of the two #2 picks. 

 

This is the worst case scenario for us all and would be beyond disappointing.  I just can't see Mac hanging his hat on McCown to save his job beyond 2018. 

[Warfish]

7 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

This is the worst case scenario for us all and would be beyond disappointing.  I just can't see Mac hanging his hat on McCown to save his job beyond 2018. 

Implies fans theorizing is accurate, that Macc and Bowles are, now, on the hot seat.

There is no sign whatsoever that that is accurate as yet.

[Philc1]

3 hours ago, JiF said:

Phil, I said this in May of 2017.   I was laughed at and ridiculed by 90% of this board. 

Well the same people were laughing at Houston for taking Watson and considered Jamal Adams the next Ed Reed

[ljr]

5 hours ago, Warfish said:

Help me understand how trading our #1, both #2's and next year's #1 for Darnold is the right choice.

You'd have to be so convinced that the prospect in question is near on 100% a sure thing, 15 year, franchise QB level player to trade that much for him (the likely cost).

To me, for this player, that sounds like Cleveland-like insanity.

So help me understand.

Basically I look at it this way

in today's NFL without a 10-15 year franchise QB teams are F'd

near 100% of us agree on that

so then we get Into the math debate... Which I believe is what you are disagreeing with.

how much greater do you think Darnold's chance to be legit is than Mayfield/Allen/etc. ?

i'd maybe look at it as something like:

Darnold 60% chance

Mayfield 45% chance

Allen less than 40% chance

(you might have different values on them all ... But I would think those %'s are reasonable)

 

A 3rd QB is likely off the board before pick 6

so I would say around a 20% improvement in the chance that our QB makes it

for me that chance is worth the 1,2,2,1,2

JMO

[maury77]

3 hours ago, prime21 said:

Watson based on what we saw in the season?

Based on where they were as prospects.