If Josh Allen looks good at the senior bowl, will you change your opinion of him?

[Pcola]

18 hours ago, Philc1 said:

If Allen looks semi-competent in the senior bowl he’s a Bronco

There was an article very recently in how Denver was going hard after Cousins.  I can’t imagine Elway wasting another draft pick after Osweiler and Lynch.

[Jet Nut]

15 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Much as they spent months finding reasons not to pick Watson nor Mahomes. 

Because no one picked either, especially Mahomes at 6.  

[Jet Nut]

9 minutes ago, Pcola said:

There was an article very recently in how Denver was going hard after Cousins.  I can’t imagine Elway wasting another draft pick after Osweiler and Lynch.

And trading up to get Lynch.  

[Jack Straw]

7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Because no one picked either, especially Mahomes at 6.  

Mahomes went four spots later at 10, so drafting him at six wasn't exactly a reach. In fact, Mahomes going at six would have been far less egregious and less of a "reach" than drafting Hackenberg two rounds too soon.

 

[derp]

I don't think the game itself particularly matters but practice absolutely should - pretty typical for anyone at the Senior Bowl. Big question about Allen is accuracy, otherwise he's athletic and has a cannon.

His proponents say that you can look past the accuracy concerns because his supporting cast was poor.

If he's out there dropping dimes all week in practice than it gives a little validity to the completion percentage being more complicated than meets the eye. Particularly because the guys who he'll be playing with aren't guys he'll have a ton of chemistry with.

And if he's inaccurate all week we'll presumably hear that there are fixable mechanical issues. I'd love to have confidence the Jets can fix that but I don't.

Reality of course will fall somewhere in the middle. I tend to think he's going to push his way up to the 1/2 range with an awesome week or fall into the mid-late first range where he lands with a team that can spend a little more time with him. The tools are so good I think he either shows enough that a team takes a chance on him at the very top of the draft or he's far enough away that bad teams don't think they can fix him. Of course bad teams think they can fix guys they can't which is why they stay bad so who knows.

[flgreen]

2 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

Really? So all wk of practice is just a never-ending contest of who can chunk it the furthest? 

There's nothing to be gleaned by these guys' accuracy?  Ability to read a defense? Ability to run a huddle and lead?

The fact that so many ppl are completely dismissing that these guys are playing real football for a whole wk, in pads, on a level playing field with equal talent for the first time, is crazy. There is value here if you pay attention. 

No they are not playing real football.  They are running through drills.  How many times have you heard the Jets have had the best week of practice, and then go out and lay an egg on Sunday.

I like the Senior Bowl, but there is nothing that happens there that off sets 2 years of film

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

Mahomes went four spots later at 10, so drafting him at six wasn't exactly a reach. In fact, Mahomes going at six would have been far less egregious and less of a "reach" than drafting Hackenberg two rounds too soon.

 

Except he was predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd round.  So yeah, it was a reach at 10.  

And no, if we took Mahomes at 6 and he bombed not one of you would be saying that it wast an egregious reach.  A second, with the payscales what they are, sets no one back.  Unlike the 6th pick.  

[legler82]

3 hours ago, Adoni Beast said:

This kid, like Hackenberg is not fit for a west coast offense at all. Offenses based on timing, rhythm, accuracy, and percision will not translate well.

IF he is going to succeed in the pros (big if), he will have to be on a team that lets him improvise and chuck it deep (like Steelers-Big Ben, or Panthers - Cam Newton).

You’ll have to be resigned to the fact that the offense will never be “run correctly,” and you have to accept a lot of on-the-fly decisions by the qb.

 

Actually, many strong armed QBs with low collegiate CMP%s (e.g., Favre, McNabb, Vick) found success in the WCO in the NFL.  Conversely, Sanchez, a guy we all know very well as not being very accurate, looked like a 5 star recruit then a top 5 pick when he ran the WCO in high school then college.  As with ANY offense the more accurate you are, the more successful you and the offense will be.  However, the WCO itself is designed to improve your CMP% and indirectly your accuracy by providing the QB a lot of easy throws to get in rhythm.  

This, of course, is provided a QB can master the footwork needed; per Bill Walsh, the father of the WCO, footwork is the most important trait needed for this offense.  If a prospect has good footwork from their collegiate offense or quick feet where you know leaning the necessary footwork will not be a problem, then they can be a good fit for the WCO.  I equate footwork and having quick feet to choreography and having rhythm.  If you are rhythmically challenged then mastering a certain choreography can be done but it would take A LOT of work and repetition.  That's the issue with Hack and Petty; poor coaching at the college level and lumbering feet.  However, if you have rhythm, then it's not an issue to learn new choreography, see Mahomes and Mariota.

Thanks to having been well coached, Allen has very good footwork for a collegiate QB prospect.  Remember he was coached by Wentz's former coach and ran Wentz's former college offense. Guess what offense Philly runs?  The WCO.  While he's not as accurate Wentz, he is accurate enough to run this offense.  Not everyone has to be as accurate a Joe Montana to run the WCO successfully.

[Adoni Beast]

2 minutes ago, legler82 said:

Actually, many strong armed QBs with low collegiate CMP%s (e.g., Favre, McNabb, Vick) found success in the WCO in the NFL.  Conversely, Sanchez, a guy we all know very well as not being very accurate, looked like a 5 star recruit then a top 5 pick when he ran the WCO in high school then college.  As with ANY offense the more accurate you are, the more successful you and the offense will be.  However, the WCO itself is designed to improve your CMP% and indirectly your accuracy by providing the QB a lot of easy throws to get him get in rhythm.  

This, of course, is provided a QB can master the footwork needed; per Bill Walsh, the father of the WCO, footwork is the most important trait needed for this offense.  If a prospect has good footwork from their collegiate offense or quick feet where you know leaning the necessary footwork will not be a problem, then they can be a good fit for the WCO.  I equate footwork and having quick feet to choreography and having rhythm.  If you are rhythmically challenged then mastering a certain choreography can be done but it would take A LOT of work and repetition.  That's the issue with Hack and Petty; poor coaching at the college level and lumbering feet.  However, if you have rhythm, then it's not an issue to learn new choreography, see Mahomes and Mariota.

Thanks to having been well coached, Allen has very good footwork for a collegiate QB prospect.  Remember he was coached by Wentz's former coach and ran Wentz's former college offense. Guess what offense Philly runs?  The WCO.  While he's not as accurate Wentz, he is accurate enough to run this offense.  Not everyone has to be as accurate a Joe Montana to run the WCO successfully.

Great post (no sarcasm) and you’re right in what you say. But the problem is, I have yet to see evidence that Allen is consistently accurate. 

Now...I will say this about him. The pro-style offense he ran in college wasn’t filled with quick/easy bubble screens, inflating completion %. So there is that. Hes a really polarizing prospect. 

[Jack Straw]

15 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Except he was predicted to go in the 2nd or 3rd round.  So yeah, it was a reach at 10.  

And no, if we took Mahomes at 6 and he bombed not one of you would be saying that it wast an egregious reach.  A second, with the payscales what they are, sets no one back.  Unlike the 6th pick.  

Fake News. Nobody who's worth anything in the scouting world had Mahomes going in the second or third round.

In fact, Walter Football, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Mayock, Charlie Casserly, Lance Zierlan, Bucky Brooks, Chad Reuter, and Maurice Jones Drew all had Patrick Mahomes going in round 1, so I don't know what to tell you.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706088-todd-mcshay-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706113-mel-kiper-jr-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

[legler82]

17 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Fake News. Nobody who's worth anything in the scouting world had Mahomes going in the second or third round.

In fact, Walter Football, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Mayock, Charlie Casserly, Lance Zierlan, Bucky Brooks, Chad Reuter, and Maurice Jones Drew all had Patrick Mahomes going in round 1, so I don't know what to tell you.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706088-todd-mcshay-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706113-mel-kiper-jr-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

I'm afraid that you are the one providing fake news.  By the time the draft was near everyone had jumped on the band wagon.  During the season and early on in the draft process, he was projected by many as a day 3 maybe day 2 pick.  He steadily rose up the draft boards not unlike Wentz.  Scouts were late accept what some of us knew early on.

[CM28]

I listened to a scout calling this whole group of quarterbacks crap, not worth a 1st round pick.

According to him, Nick Fitzgerald is the real deal. On the other hand, that’s exactly what everyone said last year about Darnold.. 

[Obrien2Toon]

16 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

I have no doubt that Jets' management would ignore three years of game film based on one 60 minute game.

Idzick based that whole debacle draft on the sr bowl

[Jet Nut]

35 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Fake News. Nobody who's worth anything in the scouting world had Mahomes going in the second or third round.

In fact, Walter Football, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Mayock, Charlie Casserly, Lance Zierlan, Bucky Brooks, Chad Reuter, and Maurice Jones Drew all had Patrick Mahomes going in round 1, so I don't know what to tell you.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706088-todd-mcshay-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706113-mel-kiper-jr-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

Most had him 1 pick up from the 2nd round, at 32?  Hardly 6th

[Jack Straw]

I'm afraid that you are the one providing fake news.  By the time the draft was near everyone had jumped on the band wagon.  During the season and early on in the draft process, he was projected by many as a day 3 maybe day 2 pick.  He steadily rose up the draft boards not unlike Wentz.  Scouts were late accept what some of us knew early on.

Great, in September of 2016, Scouts had a day two grade on Mahomes. In April of 2017, after a full year of additional film and scouting, he was a consensus day 1 pick.

I didn’t realize we could only look at scouting reports and mock drafts from a year before someone is drafted to figure out what their true grade is.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Jack Straw]

Most had him 1 pick up from the 2nd round, at 32?  Hardly 6th

Yes, I’m not disputing that. My point is this: he was a consensus first rounder. If you like him enough at 10 overall than you like him at six. At that point, where you draft him is irrelevant. If you’re drafting him in the top 10, you’re saying “this is my franchise QB.”

So who cares whether he’s picked at 6 or 10 if you think he’s the guy who can win a Super Bowl and be the face of your franchise.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[Pcola]

48 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

Fake News. Nobody who's worth anything in the scouting world had Mahomes going in the second or third round.

In fact, Walter Football, Todd McShay, Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Mayock, Charlie Casserly, Lance Zierlan, Bucky Brooks, Chad Reuter, and Maurice Jones Drew all had Patrick Mahomes going in round 1, so I don't know what to tell you.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/mock-drafts

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706088-todd-mcshay-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706113-mel-kiper-jr-2017-nfl-mock-draft-notable-picks-from-espn-gurus-final-mock

Predicting where a guy gets drafted is a lot different than proclaiming a prospect is worth taking at the same spot.  

Example: It was obvious that Gettleman fell in love with McCaffrey.  So everyone doing a mock draft predicted him going top ten.  This doesn’t mean he was worthy of a top ten pick.  In retrospect, with Hunt and Kamara emerging as elite talent, McCaffrey certainly was over drafted.

[legler82]

8 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

 

Great, in September of 2016, Scouts had a day two grade on Mahomes. In April of 2017, after a full year of additional film and scouting, he was a consensus day 1 pick.

I didn’t realize we could only look at scouting reports and mock drafts from a year before someone is drafted to figure out what their true grade is.


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

 

I apologize as I jumped in the conversation without the full context.  I didn't realize you were arguing about right before the draft.  It's true that he was projected as a Day 3 prospects at some point then through the process rose to a consensus early 2nd/mid-late 1st.  10 may have been considered a reach based on some projections but IMO those projections were wrong anyway.  I thought he was the best QB in he draft even way back when he was projected as a Day 3.  I DESPERATELY wanted the Jets to draft him at 6.  

If Mayfield can go 6th, then Mahomes certainly could and should have.  Jets fans are campaigning we traded for Alex Smith and/or draft Mayfield this offseason.  By next year Mahomes would have essentially taken both of these guys' jobs.  What's next?  We trade for another one of Mahomes' starting job victims, the Giant's David Webb?  Process this if you will, Alex Smith is coming off arguably the best year of his career, playoff appearances 4 out of the last 5 years, a better than 4-1 TD-INT ratio in the playoffs and yada yada yada.  Yet KC and its fanbase "CAN'T WAIT" [say like Bart Scott] to usher him out of town in lieu of Mahomes.  ESPN's Louis Riddick reported today that inside the Chiefs they are "beyond giddy" in what they have in Mahomes and that in practice he makes "stupid throws" routinely.  Riddick goes on to say that Mahomes is "special" and we should "remember that name" as though a lot of us didn't already know this.  

 

 

[DMan77]

One of the biggest problems for the Jets when it comes to Allen is that he needs a year or two to work on his accuracy. I think just about any team that takes him will "redshirt" him for a year... But I don't know if the Jets can take that route again with what's happened with Hack... They're in a position where they need someone to come step in and play basically day 1...

And that's not Allen right now, from all that I've seen. Maybe he's a top 5 talent in 2 years! But that's a heck of a lot of guess work...  

[ATX Jetsfan]

Josh Allen wouldn't be the first small school player with iffy stats and questions to be a success, nor would be the first to be a bust. Only time will tell. You can analyze, compare, watch, all you want. The NFL draft is the ultimate crapshoot, especially at QB. 

I am excited for the senior bowl though. Strong group of players to watch. Big thing is going to be weigh-ins. 

 

[Pcola]

56 minutes ago, CM28 said:

I listened to a scout calling this whole group of quarterbacks crap, not worth a 1st round pick.

According to him, Nick Fitzgerald is the real deal. On the other hand, that’s exactly what everyone said last year about Darnold.. 

The same Nick Fitzgerald that only threw for 1,782 yards, with 55% completion and 15/11?

That makes Darnold’s numbers CFB hall of fame worthy.

Agreed, like Darnold from 2016, there just isn’t enough film on Fitzgerald yet.  Let me rephrase this, there’s no good film on him yet.

To put this in perspective, I was at the ECU/BYU game.  ECU’s back up QB shredded BYU’s defense. Close to 500 yards passing.  Best game of the QBs life.  

Fitzgerald, playing with an SEC team that should have throttled BYU, he throws 241 yards 19-30, 2/2 ints.  

Add the 48% against GA, or the 39% versus  Auburn, he is far from an NFL prospect yet.  He makes more plays with his legs than his arm.  

[CM28]

39 minutes ago, Pcola said:

The same Nick Fitzgerald that only threw for 1,782 yards, with 55% completion and 15/11?

That makes Darnold’s numbers CFB hall of fame worthy.

Agreed, like Darnold from 2016, there just isn’t enough film on Fitzgerald yet.  Let me rephrase this, there’s no good film on him yet.

To put this in perspective, I was at the ECU/BYU game.  ECU’s back up QB shredded BYU’s defense. Close to 500 yards passing.  Best game of the QBs life.  

Fitzgerald, playing with an SEC team that should have throttled BYU, he throws 241 yards 19-30, 2/2 ints.  

Add the 48% against GA, or the 39% versus  Auburn, he is far from an NFL prospect yet.  He makes more plays with his legs than his arm.  

Just repeating what a scout said. Shows that nothing is guaranteed in this business.

But for me, accuracy, going through reads and a good arm beats size and a iffy rocket arm every day

[Philc1]

22 hours ago, Jet Nut said:

Then he'll suck.  Elway can't bring in a competent QB unless he's already a known HOF QB.

 

Ok so he’s like Macagnan?

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, Pcola said:

There was an article very recently in how Denver was going hard after Cousins.  I can’t imagine Elway wasting another draft pick after Osweiler and Lynch.

But what if they don’t get Cousins?  Allen is also from their own backyard he’s as close to a college hometown hero as it gets

[Philc1]

1 hour ago, DMan77 said:

One of the biggest problems for the Jets when it comes to Allen is that he needs a year or two to work on his accuracy. I think just about any team that takes him will "redshirt" him for a year... But I don't know if the Jets can take that route again with what's happened with Hack... They're in a position where they need someone to come step in and play basically day 1...

And that's not Allen right now, from all that I've seen. Maybe he's a top 5 talent in 2 years! But that's a heck of a lot of guess work...  

56% completion percentage facing Cheyenne Community college is t getting me excited I don’t care if he looks like Superman at the combine which he will

[Jet Nut]

14 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

Ok so he’s like Macagnan?

So which is it?  He a Bronco if he plays well, or its a bad pick if macc takes him.

 

[legler82]

57 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

One of the biggest problems for the Jets when it comes to Allen is that he needs a year or two to work on his accuracy. I think just about any team that takes him will "redshirt" him for a year... But I don't know if the Jets can take that route again with what's happened with Hack... They're in a position where they need someone to come step in and play basically day 1...

And that's not Allen right now, from all that I've seen. Maybe he's a top 5 talent in 2 years! But that's a heck of a lot of guess work...  

You can work on improving your mechanics which in turns improves your accuracy but you can't really work on inaccuracy especially by not playing.  Allen does not have any glaring mechanical flaws.  He tends to bail on his mechanics when pressured or when he perceives there is pressure but that can be said about many QB prospects.  Behind that bad line he got pressure more than most this year so throwing inaccurately off platform because you are seeing ghosts is understandable though not acceptable.  Like most QB measurables and traits there are varying degrees.  At the end of the day, he's just not a QB prospect whose leading strength is accuracy like Goff for example.  Yet he is more accurate than his CMP% shows; it's not like he has offense debilitating inaccuracy like a Petty or Hack.  The kid doesn't need to sit.

[Paradis]

On 1/7/2018 at 7:55 AM, Pointdexter said:

What if the scouting reports from the entire wk of practice praise Allen, not just one day? What if he looks better on a daily basis than the other QBs? His first extended action with an NFL caliber supporting cast has to mean something, right?

What if he is what he is -- a  high upside guy in need development...

Does that sound like the #6 pick in the draft to you? Is he the SIXTH best guy out of 400 players who will find teams next spring? 

[Paradis]

8 hours ago, Pointdexter said:

If Hackenberg participated in something like this he would have been exposed for the fraud he is, and furthermore it would have saved this franchise from making an epic mistake.

Hackenberg was exposed in 2014 - did that make a difference?

[NYDreamer]

Bart Scott gave an interesting perspective on why he liked Josh Allen and QB's that come from smaller schools like Wyoming.  He said the talent is all there, put him with NFL players and watch him excel.  It's not far off, Big Ben (miami of Oh), Wentz (North Dakota State), Flacco (Delaware) have all been the most recent success stories.

So, Josh Allen could be that next guy if you go with the logic stated above.

[NYs Stepchild]

On 1/8/2018 at 9:32 PM, Jack Straw said:

I have no doubt that Jets' management would ignore three years of game film based on one 60 minute game.

It's the week of practice that's really important.

[section314]

12 minutes ago, NYs Stepchild said:

It's the week of practice that's really important.

Excellent point. They are coached all week by NFL guys, asked to make all types of throws, interviewed, etc. The game is secondary.