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It makes the most sense to draft a QB in round one


Alka

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The Jets have 100M in cap space, and the best way to blow a lot of it would be to get Kurt Cousins for 30 million dollars per year.  We can get a  QB at #6 or (if we trade up, earlier) and use all that cap money to get free agent pieces that we so desperately need.  At #6, we will have our future QB cheap for at least the next 4 years, instead of using up 100 million on a QB over the same 4 years.  

I hope we use the cap room to grab a cornerback, pass rusher, resign Claiborne and other Jet free agents we want to keep, and use our (2) second round picks to get possibly a running back and a offensive lineman.

Cousins is a nice QB, but in no way will he be worth the money that it would take to sign him to the Jets.  If he demands 25 or 30 million, we would be overpaying him tremendously to get him.

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I agree 100%, but with Mac and Bowles under pressure the way they are for 2018, they may try the quick fix of a FA QB. I would rather take a QB round and use our other resources in $ in the Oline, CB, number 1 WR, and maybe even a RB. We can get some or a few of them from the draft, but we may need a few extra picks to trade up for a QB if we have to.

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49 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Rosen and Darnold will likely be gone, and Bowles would cut off a pinky finger before he’d agree to put Baker Mayfield in a preseason game over Josh McCown. 

Didn't he have Hack and Petty start the third game this year over him? Also didn't he get s#it for doing that?

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Just from a PR standpoint, the Jets would get pummeled for not either drafting a QB in round one, or getting a free agent QB who doesn't give us a reasonable chance for success.  To that end, I am counting on drafting the QB in round 1.  I know that Macc said that the door is not yet closed on Hackenburg, but I believe that Macc in this case is lying through his teeth.  Hackenberg is a colossal failure, and it doesn't take an NFL scout to figure that out. Petty is garbage, so, we are left with a 38 year old QB who broke his arm, and ________  (insert here).

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$111M in cap is a ton of money to spend. Saying no to Cousins without talking about structure on contract is a mistake. You really shouldn't look at average salary, you should be looking at % of cap taken up by the QB. 12-13% of the cap is where you want to be to field a competitive team around a QB.

If he is indeed Transition Tagged like Redskins fans believe he will be most of his money will need to come in years 1 and 2, so the Skins can't match it, making his cap percentage significantly lower in the final 3-4 years of his contract. Keep in mind there are far fewer teams in play for him if he is Transition Tagged so the competition won't be as fierce. Only teams capable of writing a deal that the Skins can't match are the Bills, Browns, 49ers, and Jets, 49ers have their QB, Browns likely go with Smith and a rookie, so it would leave the Bills and Jets to compete with each other. Bronco's won't have enough cap to make a contract that the Skins can't match. The question you need to ask is will any of these QBs play to the level that Cousins is currently playing at, and will it be within the first 4 years of their contract before you have to pay them more than what Cousins will get this year?

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32 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

Bowles is never going to attach himself to a young/rookie QB. Expect the Jets to go corner/DL round 1 and then make some weak hedge on QB with one of their second rounders. 

 

People keep saying that, but I'm not actually sure that's true.

He'll play the best players he can- that's it. Maybe that's a young guy, maybe its not. But that's the truth. We can't seriously try to use Petty and Hack in particular as examples of what he'd do with every young QB.

If they don't suck and are better than the other QB's he'll start them.

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, bla bla bla said:

$111M in cap is a ton of money to spend. Saying no to Cousins without talking about structure on contract is a mistake. You really shouldn't look at average salary, you should be looking at % of cap taken up by the QB. 12-13% of the cap is where you want to be to field a competitive team around a QB.

If he is indeed Transition Tagged like Redskins fans believe he will be most of his money will need to come in years 1 and 2, so the Skins can't match it, making his cap percentage significantly lower in the final 3-4 years of his contract. Keep in mind there are far fewer teams in play for him if he is Transition Tagged so the competition won't be as fierce. Only teams capable of writing a deal that the Skins can't match are the Bills, Browns, 49ers, and Jets, 49ers have their QB, Browns likely go with Smith and a rookie, so it would leave the Bills and Jets to compete with each other. Bronco's won't have enough cap to make a contract that the Skins can't match. The question you need to ask is will any of these QBs play to the level that Cousins is currently playing at, and will it be within the first 4 years of their contract before you have to pay them more than what Cousins will get this year?

I said this the other day in another thread. In addition, what Jet fan would turn down the production that Cousins has put out over the past three years? If you could guarantee me one of the QBs entering this years draft would give us his numbers I’d say sign me up immediately. The reality is that, more than likely, none of the QBs in this years draft will give us that kind production.

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Make a move up for either Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (if you know they can be developed)and sign Bridgewater.

I will not watch one live game next year with Josh McCown/Cade McNown...McCown is so awful I wouldn’t care if we signed Cousins for 25 mil a year.

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1 hour ago, Tony MaC said:

People keep saying that, but I'm not actually sure that's true.

He'll play the best players he can- that's it. Maybe that's a young guy, maybe its not. But that's the truth. We can't seriously try to use Petty and Hack in particular as examples of what he'd do with every young QB.

If they don't suck and are better than the other QB's he'll start them.

 

 

 

It is simple, NO Draft person believes that this current crop of QBs coming out is going to be NFL ready!!!!

We need to remember that we did this same dance with Mark Sanchez who EVERYONE said was inexperienced and needed time. This is an example of Sanchez' weaknesses....

Weaknesses:Very inexperienced; only threw 487 pass attempts in his career with only one year of starting experience ... Started out hot, but had inconsistent accuracy during the middle of the season ... Unimpressive as a sophomore ... Needs a little more work on reading defenses ... Could put on a few more pounds of muscle ... Major durability concerns ... Will likely need a year with a clipboard before he is ready to start ....Read more: http://walterfootball.com/pro2009msanchez.php#ixzz53ZLRTVRq

But the Jets are always SMARTER then the rest of the NFL Ken O'Brien over Marino, Kyle over Sapp and so on, it is sickening. 

For God's Sake let Jets do the smart thing for a change!!!!

Petty looks like he regressed!!

Why in the world do we believe that these current guys know how to develop a young QB!!!

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43 minutes ago, TnT said:

Make a move up for either Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (if you know they can be developed)and sign Bridgewater.

I will not watch one live game next year with Josh McCown/Cade McNown...McCown is so awful I wouldn’t care if we signed Cousins for 25 mil a year.

Macc doesn't know what can be developed or not.

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4 hours ago, Alka said:

The Jets have 100M in cap space, and the best way to blow a lot of it would be to get Kurt Cousins for 30 million dollars per year.  We can get a  QB at #6 or (if we trade up, earlier) and use all that cap money to get free agent pieces that we so desperately need.  At #6, we will have our future QB cheap for at least the next 4 years, instead of using up 100 million on a QB over the same 4 years.  

I hope we use the cap room to grab a cornerback, pass rusher, resign Claiborne and other Jet free agents we want to keep, and use our (2) second round picks to get possibly a running back and a offensive lineman.

Cousins is a nice QB, but in no way will he be worth the money that it would take to sign him to the Jets.  If he demands 25 or 30 million, we would be overpaying him tremendously to get him.

Been preaching this exact plan the entire time. Haven’t seen you here before .. you new? Welcome.

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7 hours ago, Tony MaC said:

People keep saying that, but I'm not actually sure that's true.

He'll play the best players he can- that's it. Maybe that's a young guy, maybe its not. But that's the truth. We can't seriously try to use Petty and Hack in particular as examples of what he'd do with every young QB.

If they don't suck and are better than the other QB's he'll start them.

 

 

 

i don't know.  bowles comes from the parcells camp which means he'd rather have a vet.  if they do get one of the top prospects i think he'll start.  maybe not the first few games but he will get in. and mac has some say in this because he's the guy who actually signs the vet qb.  he could sign a guy who really shouldn't start off the season.

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6 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

It is simple, NO Draft person believes that this current crop of QBs coming out is going to be NFL ready!!!!

We need to remember that we did this same dance with Mark Sanchez who EVERYONE said was inexperienced and needed time. This is an example of Sanchez' weaknesses....

Weaknesses:Very inexperienced; only threw 487 pass attempts in his career with only one year of starting experience ... Started out hot, but had inconsistent accuracy during the middle of the season ... Unimpressive as a sophomore ... Needs a little more work on reading defenses ... Could put on a few more pounds of muscle ... Major durability concerns ... Will likely need a year with a clipboard before he is ready to start ....Read more: http://walterfootball.com/pro2009msanchez.php#ixzz53ZLRTVRq

But the Jets are always SMARTER then the rest of the NFL Ken O'Brien over Marino, Kyle over Sapp and so on, it is sickening. 

For God's Sake let Jets do the smart thing for a change!!!!

Petty looks like he regressed!!

Why in the world do we believe that these current guys know how to develop a young QB!!!

does any draft person think the qb's coming out are nfl ready?  even marino sat behind woodley for a few games his rookie season.  kelllly spent 3 years in the cfl before joining buffalo.  obrien sat behind todd but i think that was mainly because of that court he had after the fight in studio 54 (or somewhere with gastineau).

imo, all of these guys coming out have been playing the game for well over a decade.  they either have it when drafted or they don't.  the projects are the guys who play in a non-nfl type system and/or didn't stand out given their college schedule/conference strength.

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6 hours ago, Charlie Brown said:

It is simple, NO Draft person believes that this current crop of QBs coming out is going to be NFL ready!!!!

We need to remember that we did this same dance with Mark Sanchez who EVERYONE said was inexperienced and needed time. This is an example of Sanchez' weaknesses....

Weaknesses:Very inexperienced; only threw 487 pass attempts in his career with only one year of starting experience ... Started out hot, but had inconsistent accuracy during the middle of the season ... Unimpressive as a sophomore ... Needs a little more work on reading defenses ... Could put on a few more pounds of muscle ... Major durability concerns ... Will likely need a year with a clipboard before he is ready to start ....Read more: http://walterfootball.com/pro2009msanchez.php#ixzz53ZLRTVRq

But the Jets are always SMARTER then the rest of the NFL Ken O'Brien over Marino, Kyle over Sapp and so on, it is sickening. 

For God's Sake let Jets do the smart thing for a change!!!!

Petty looks like he regrWhy in the world do we believe that these current guys know how to develop a young QB!!!

Petty was actually MORE inaccurate this year

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5 hours ago, rangerous said:

i don't know.  bowles comes from the parcells camp which means he'd rather have a vet.  if they do get one of the top prospects i think he'll start.  maybe not the first few games but he will get in. and mac has some say in this because he's the guy who actually signs the vet qb.  he could sign a guy who really shouldn't start off the season.

See. If you give your GM and coach autonomy from each other, why have a GM?  Just have a Head Scout and let the coach make the calls.   These guys presently work at cross purposes.

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2 minutes ago, jack48 said:

See. I fyou give your GM and coach autonomy from each other, why have a GM?  Jut have a Head Scout and let the coach make the calls.   These guys presently work at cross purposes.

yep.  no question that the management structure is a little faulty.  it only works if mac buys into whatever bowles is trying to do with the team.

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27 minutes ago, rangerous said:

does any draft person think the qb's coming out are nfl ready?  even marino sat behind woodley for a few games his rookie season.  kelllly spent 3 years in the cfl before joining buffalo.  obrien sat behind todd but i think that was mainly because of that court he had after the fight in studio 54 (or somewhere with gastineau).

imo, all of these guys coming out have been playing the game for well over a decade.  they either have it when drafted or they don't.  the projects are the guys who play in a non-nfl type system and/or didn't stand out given their college schedule/conference strength.

Jim Kelly never played in the CFL, he played two years for Houston in the USFL before it folded and then went to Buffalo who still held his NFL draft rights.

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Basically you pay $$$ to increase your odds of success and based on the last 3 years, we are ~90-95% sure that Cousins will be a top 10-15 QB in the league (barring injury) over the next four years...

On average about 50% of 1st round QB's will bust so you have to pick the right one and/or have multiple chances

Rosen or Darnold, Mayfield or Allen, Jackson or Rudolph, Falk or Stidham - crystal ball anyone?

The top QB's in the draft will sign for over $30M for 4 years, and they will endure "rookie mistakes" and a "sophomore slump" in that time so the extra cost for Cousins is basically Wilkerson 

Considering Mac is 0-2 drafting QB's, Bowles seems to prefer more experienced QB's and the Jets have cap to spend - it might make more sense for the Jets to pay the $$$ to increase their odds on a successful QB

The Jets over the last 4 years +Cousins -Wilkerson is a playoff team 2-3x... (no Fitz, no McCown)

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1 hour ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

Basically you pay $$$ to increase your odds of success and based on the last 3 years, we are ~90-95% sure that Cousins will be a top 10-15 QB in the league (barring injury) over the next four years...

On average about 50% of 1st round QB's will bust so you have to pick the right one and/or have multiple chances

Rosen or Darnold, Mayfield or Allen, Jackson or Rudolph, Falk or Stidham - crystal ball anyone?

The top QB's in the draft will sign for over $30M for 4 years, and they will endure "rookie mistakes" and a "sophomore slump" in that time so the extra cost for Cousins is basically Wilkerson 

Considering Mac is 0-2 drafting QB's, Bowles seems to prefer more experienced QB's and the Jets have cap to spend - it might make more sense for the Jets to pay the $$$ to increase their odds on a successful QB

The Jets over the last 4 years +Cousins -Wilkerson is a playoff team 2-3x... (no Fitz, no McCown)

I agree completely with this, but hopefully they can pick up Falk in round 2 as a replacement.

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I think this is a issue worthy of its own thread, but I think the QB drafting/selection issue is directly related to the coaching staff/competence issue.  

It is clear to all of us that Mac does not know how to pick a QB.  Maybe that is not that unusual, and the teams that find and develop successful young QBs involve their GMs and offensive coaches working together with their GMs to select a QB to fit their system.

It should be no surprise that Petty and Hack are not very good.  Petty and Hack was selected with Gailey and Patullo providing input.  The Jets actually traded up for Petty.  I think Hack was a self-help pick by Mac based on his measureables.

The ultimate drafting of a QB should be a decision mostly by the OC and QB coach, with the GM providing analytical and character scouting support.   They have to be convinced that the QB could work their system.  Interesting, my recollection from the 2017 Draft was that O'Brien did not like the Watson pick, but he came up with a plan for him to be successful.

With the way the Jets are set up, I think people are underestimating the likelihood of the Jets getting Cousins or Smith.  I just don't see Bowles/Mac/Morton getting their heads together on a draftable QB that meets all of their requirements.

Rosen will be gone.

Darnold could fit with Morton, but he is likely gone.

I don't see Mac drafting Mayfield at 6.

Allen would not fit with Morton.

6 is too high for the others.  

Personally I think the answer is to ditch the WCO and go with a more vertical system.  But in any event, the Chiefs obviously want some stupid team to give them multiple high draft picks for Alex Smith. I hope that team is not the Jets.

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13 hours ago, UnknownJetFan said:

I agree 100%, but with Mac and Bowles under pressure the way they are for 2018, they may try the quick fix of a FA QB. I would rather take a QB round and use our other resources in $ in the Oline, CB, number 1 WR, and maybe even a RB. We can get some or a few of them from the draft, but we may need a few extra picks to trade up for a QB if we have to.

Are guys like that available? FA isn't so cut and dry.....Teams mostly keep their good, young players.  RB's are even tough - because they're mostly done by 28/29 years old..

Honestly, I don't know what the FA market looks like - If we can pull off a #1 corner, #1 WR - a couple of solid linemen and draft a RB in the 3rd (probably be giving up both 2's to move up to 3)

I would love it!

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