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Draft value chart


section314

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12 minutes ago, IndianaJet said:

Maybe Buffalo will see themselves as one QB short of being a contender.  Smith would be a good fit for them, they're a run first and play defense kind of team.  

Their offensive line is getting up there in age at Center and Guard. Also, how long does McCoy have before he goes of the post 30 RB cliff? 

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2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The combine won't be the deciding factor for Mayfiled. The Senior Bowl for both Allen and Mayfield (and even Luke Falk) will be a far better test for those guys. How they perform during the week will be critical and fun to watch.

This may be the best senior bowl class I can remember. Not even counting the QBs, the RBs are pretty good too with Penny/Wadley and the WRS are decent. Will be a must watch for Jets fans imo. 

I'm not saying that the combine *should* be a deciding factor.  But just going from recent memory - all the flaws, real and imagined, come out.  If Mayfield measures at 5'11", I bet people are going to slot him for day 2!

Has there *ever* been a draft when 3 QBs go top 5?  And it's not like this QB class is so spectacular...  Nor are there more QB-needy teams than in years past.  The sucky teams always need QBs...

This is always the time of year where we all get in a tizzy, and we assume that everyone in front of us will all draft the position we need...  But that's not what happens...

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3 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

The only problem with the draft value chart is that it basically gets thrown out the window when multiple teams are trying to trade up and when they're trying to trade up for a QB.

I would not be shocked at all if it costs us this year's 1st, both 2nds and a high 2019 pick to move up.

The simple law of supply and demand. 

Perspective.  Using the same logic in 2016 would have meant trading Darron Lee, Hackenberg, Jamal Adams and another high pick to get Wentz.  Doesn't sound so bad, does it.

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18 minutes ago, nycdan said:

Perspective.  Using the same logic in 2016 would have meant trading Darron Lee, Hackenberg, Jamal Adams and another high pick to get Wentz.  Doesn't sound so bad, does it.

Didn't say it was bad, just saying that this year...the draft value chart is basically meaningless.  If you told me any one of the QBs that are coming out this year will produce like Wentz, I'd trade our next two drafts for him. 

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58 minutes ago, thshadow said:

I'm not saying that the combine *should* be a deciding factor.  But just going from recent memory - all the flaws, real and imagined, come out.  If Mayfield measures at 5'11", I bet people are going to slot him for day 2!

Has there *ever* been a draft when 3 QBs go top 5?  And it's not like this QB class is so spectacular...  Nor are there more QB-needy teams than in years past.  The sucky teams always need QBs...

This is always the time of year where we all get in a tizzy, and we assume that everyone in front of us will all draft the position we need...  But that's not what happens...

Tim Couch

Akili Smith

Donovan McNabb

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7 hours ago, section314 said:

Assuming the goal is to get ahead of Denver(#5) for a QB, here are the corresponding numbers.

Pick #

1  3000 pts

2 2600 pts

3 2200 pts

4 1800 pts

6 1600 pts

Our 2nd&3rd round picks

37 530 pts

49 410 pts 

72 230 pts.

Never know what will happen in FA, but the ammo is definitely there.

Will be a lot more than what that stupid chart says. Always is

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Just now, thshadow said:

Wow.  I looked up 1983, but I never thought to look at that dumpster fire...

 

That was an all time draft, just for the drama and craziness. 

Edge to the Colts, where everyone went nuts.  (Great call by the Colts).  Rickey Williams to the Saints.   Some great talent, Tory Holt, Champ Bailey.

5 QB in the top 12.     Daunte Culpeppar and Cade McNown rounding it out.   So just remember, 5 QBs in the top 12 picks.  None of them was HOF, 3 total busts, 1 went to a SB and a few Pro Bowls, and 1 started well (Daunte) and fizzled out right quick

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6 hours ago, Lith said:

Buffalo has two 1s and two 2s.  KCs one from the Mahomes trade and they acquired the Rams 2 for Sammy Watkins.  The good news is that our 1 is worth about the same as their two 1s and the 20s is an awfully long drop from 3.  Also both of their 2s are later than both of our 2s since the Rams will also be picking in the 20s. 

If we are motivated to move up, we have the ammunition to move up to 3 or 4 and should be able to outbid Buffalo.

 

Does look like our 3 picks - the #6 and our 2 2's is more valuable than Buffalos 2 1's and 2'2s.  If we want to get to three I think we can get there with the 2-2'2.

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4 hours ago, RoadFan said:

I hate that stupid chart.

A specific pick is worth;

1) what a team will pay for it. 

2) the inherent value of the tier of players available as perceived by the team fielding offers.

 

It was made by Jimmy Johnson for 1 specific draft and people treat it like gospel

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6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

remember when DA GAWD McCown beatbthe Chiefs and showed our HUGE stockpile of young talent how to win that was amazing 

Yeah and the moxie they showed after handing over a huge 4th quarter lead to the Jaguars, but come out, and win in OT.  Take both away, and guess who holds the 2nd pick in the draft?

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5 hours ago, HighPitch said:

Trading up would be foolish. None of the top 4 or 5 qb prospects have really shown anything this year to seperate themselves. 

Stay put at 6 and get the best qb available. Its a crap shoot anyways

Well considering it’s a 2 QB draft, and that will reveal itself in due time, just like Winston, Mariota neither team will be willing to trade out of the top 2 picks, and the Jets will be best served taking Chubb, or best OT in draft at 6 if they can’t get in to the top 2 spots.

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More than ever, this chart is way outdated.  With the top picks costing less against the salary cap than they used to, the necessity of grabbing a top QB, and the increased likelihood that the top 2 QB's in a given draft will go 1-2, those top 2 picks have never been more valuable.  

It's why, again, the pro-tank crowd will end up being on the right side of history.  

 

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11 hours ago, jetstream23 said:

If I'm Cleveland I take the best QB at #1 and then hold the #4 pick hostage, particularly if only 2 QBs are gone by that point.  Pick #4 would be the action spot for a team to come up for Mayfield, Allen, etc.   If Darnold and Rosen are gone 1, 2, and the Colts are confident in Luck's rehab then they need to take Barkley at #3.  Cleveland is sitting pretty in this draft......(but we all know they'll screw the pooch anyway)

Colts may go for 1 of the stud OTs. They Want to protect luck, and put a big hole opener in front of whatever back they get. They can get 1 at 6, or Barkley could still be there too if they traded with jets. Either way they get a player they could have taken at 3, and still get extra picKs.

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14 hours ago, IndianaJet said:

The only problem with the draft value chart is that it basically gets thrown out the window when multiple teams are trying to trade up and when they're trying to trade up for a QB.

I would not be shocked at all if it costs us this year's 1st, both 2nds and a high 2019 pick to move up.

The simple law of supply and demand. 

This is absolutely true. But then again this mostly holds true when there are only 1 or 2 QBs (both expected to be drafted #1 and #2 overall) and the next-best is seen as a longshot (or at best, a huge project). 

The difference is the demand may not be so high, since the supply is also high. There are probably a good handful of QBs coming out that should each have at least 1 team thinking he's going to be awesome. Then beyond that you've got Cousins as likely as not going to hit free agency, and a possibility of Bortles as well unless he crushes it vs Pittsburgh and beyond. Then there are a bunch of veteran starting QBs who might be available via trade or FA - Alex Smith, Eli, Keenum, Dalton, Brees, Bradford -  for a team that prefers to go that route instead of putting all their eggs in the basket of 1 prospect (then draft one of the QBs ranked 4th-8th in this class, hold onto the rest of their picks, and bring him along slowly as needed).

Things shuffle around a lot after the combine, but here in early January there look to be 4-5 QBs taken in round 1, and as many as 10 taken by rounds 3-4, plus upwards of a handful of starting, veteran QBs. On top of all that, one QB-desperate, high-drafting team (SF) already found their guy midseason.

So I agree with you about the potential cost due to supply and demand, but here on January 9th, the supply looks to be unusually high this season.

It'll be interesting to see how things start to sort out after the combine. 

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