Should we really be this worried about Macc's ability?

[Freemanm]

Can Jets be confident Mike Maccagnan will find franchise QB?

Updated 9:11 AM; Posted 6:30 AM

By Connor Hughes NJ Advance Media for NJ.com

It's priority No. 1, 2 and 3 for the Jets this offseason. Their lone must-accomplish task. It doesn't matter how much these players love Todd Bowles, the abundance of picks in this year's draft, or the boatload of money to spend in free agency.

If they can't get a quarterback ... it's all meaningless.

And finding that franchise-defining guy falls on the shoulders of general manager Mike Maccagnan. He can use those picks to draft one, or the money to sign one. It doesn't matter how if he gets the job done.

Just one issue: There are genuine concerns he has that ability.

Maccagnan's been involved in collegiate and pro scouting the last 24 years. He was a college scout with the Redskins (1994), then the team's pro scout (1995-2000), before latching on with the expansion Texans. He was Houston's coordinator of college scouting until 2010, assistant director of college scouting for a year, then got promoted to Director of college scouting. He held that role from 2011 through 2014.

While Maccagnan didn't call the draft shots at any location, he was involved in the evaluation, and aided in the decision to select, ten quarterbacks. Not one of them developed into a franchise guy.

In 1994, the Redskins drafted Heath Shuler in the first round, and Gus Freotte in the seventh. Shuler played just 29 games (he threw 15 touchdowns and 33 interceptions) before washing out of the league. Freotte was a journeyman backup. Washington later picked Todd Husak in the sixth round in 2000. He played just one game.

Again, Maccagnan wasn't the one who pulled the trigger on those picks, but he's never been around a team that successfully drafted a franchise quarterback. And since Maccagnan arrived in New York, that's continued.

The Texans drafted David Carr (No. 1 pick) in 2002, David Ragone (third round) and Drew Henson (sixth) in 2003, B.J. Symons (seventh) in 2004, Alex Brink in 2008 (seventh), T.J. Yates in 2011 (fifth round) and Tom Savage (fourth) in 2014. Not one was a franchise-altering guy. Carr, Yates and Savage found success as backups.

Maccagnan traded up to draft Baylor's Bryce Petty in the fourth round in 2015. There's a good chance he's not on an NFL roster next year. Maccagnan also took Penn State's Christian Hackenberg in the second round in 2016. The Jets are, quite literally, afraid to put him on the field. In two years, he hasn't taken a snap.

As for draft success stories: Maccagnan shied away from trading up for Jared Goff (Rams) or Carson Wentz (Eagles), and passed on Dak Prescott (Cowboys) in 2016. He didn't pull the trigger on Deshaun Watson with the sixth pick in 2017, and never realistically tried to trade back into the first for him. The Texans did, and got Watson with the No. 12 pick. 

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Maccagnan doesn't have a quarterback-finding feather in his cap.

 

The Jets finished the 2017 season 5-11. Better than many expected, but so many fourth-quarter collapses gave the year an uneven feel. Here are the worst moments from the 2017 season.

Which is why the Jets could, conceivably, go the more proven route and sign one in free agency. Maccagnan found some success with veterans Ryan Fitzpatrick (2015-2016) and Josh McCown (2017), while passing on questionable targets like Mike Glennon. 

Fitzpatrick had a record-breaking 2015, McCown set career-highs in virutally ever category this year, and Glennon, who got a big-money deal from the Bears this offseason, was benched after four games. 

But can Maccagnan tell if Kirk Cousins (Redskins) is still ascending, assuming he hits the open market? What about the Vikings' Case Keenum or Teddy Bridgewater? The Jets have the money to sign any of the three. But if they throw big dollars at one, and they're wrong, it sets them back to Square One. 

Acting owner Christopher Johnson gave Maccagnan a two-year contract extension in late December. It was a vote of confidence. But when Johnson met the media, he admitted he's not a patient man.

The clock's ticking. The Jets must find a franchise quarterback this year.

Maccagnan foul-tipped on Petty, then swung-and-missed on Hackenberg.

One more strike ... he's out.

[Fibonacci]

Mac has proven clueless when it comes to finding a QB. But when your owner is clueless about finding the right coach and GM, you kind of keep quiet about your incompetent GM. 

[usanyj]

Can't be confident.  I have blind faith, I'm hoping this is the year, I'm hoping he knows he needs to be bold and get us a franchise caliber qb through the draft or through cousins.  I think his job depends on it, so I think he will be active.  He has said he will be active, as has the owner.

[jeremy2020]

It is basically hoping the decision isn't in his hands and can't ignore prospect is there with the pick. The real problem is that he misses, it's at least 3 years with the QB before taking a real shot at another one. You'll have two more years of mac and bowles and then they'll throw out the coaching staff laying the defacto blame on them (right or wrong) and a new coaching staff will come and have their 1 year try with him before trying again. 

So whatever QB he chooses in the draft, if it's a miss then 3 tears down the drain. That is what makes me worry he'll think he can solve it through free agency..

[MDL_JET]

Yawn. He passed on Watson, so now he's completely incapable of finding a QB? Right. 

[BCJet]

1 minute ago, MDL_JET said:

Yawn. He passed on Watson, so now he's completely incapable of finding a QB? Right. 

The article isnt saying that.  

Im a Mac supporter for the most part, but the article is basically providing 10+ years of examples of organizations where Mac has worked who have drafted and missed on QBs.  

What I hope Mac does, and I dont feel confident about this - but hope is all we have, is that he realizes that drafting the big, strong-armed guy doesnt work and he completely reverses field and takes Baker Mayfield who checks all the other boxes besides height and weight.  I can live with the Hackenberg mistake as long as Mac learns from it.  

Plus, if Im Mac and I take Mayfield, he misses and I get fired at least I can explain that decision in future scouting dept interviews by saying I evaluated my past mistakes and tried to go in another direction.  If he whiffs on Hack and then does the exact same thing with Allen and gets fired, then he should never sniff a job higher then area scout ever again.

[The Crusher]

personnel guy

                /dbatesman

[ChuckkieB]

Mac's career track record as a scout and as a GM s is poor when it comes to QB's so yes, Jets fans should b worried.  Unless several of these college QB's all of a sudden turn into a slam dunk, can't miss prospect, Mac has to properly identify which one he rates the highest and then trade up to get him if necessary.

If he's swings and misses this year he will almost certainly be out of a job so the pressure is on to pick a winner.

[dbatesman]

Yes.

[Kleckineau]

I think he is capable of finding one but I am not sure he will do it before he gets fired.

[MDL_JET]

2 minutes ago, BCJet said:

The article isnt saying that.  

Im a Mac supporter for the most part, but the article is basically providing 10+ years of examples of organizations where Mac has worked who have drafted and missed on QBs.  

What I hope Mac does, and I dont feel confident about this - but hope is all we have, is that he realizes that drafting the big, strong-armed guy doesnt work and he completely reverses field and takes Baker Mayfield who checks all the other boxes besides height and weight.  I can live with the Hackenberg mistake as long as Mac learns from it.  

Plus, if Im Mac and I take Mayfield, he misses and I get fired at least I can explain that decision in future scouting dept interviews by saying I evaluated my past mistakes and tried to go in another direction.  If he whiffs on Hack and then does the exact same thing with Allen and gets fired, then he should never sniff a job higher then area scout ever again.

But you can't even use those past examples of when he was just a scout director or whatever it was. He's not the one making the decisions when it comes down to it. For all we know, Mac could've wanted a different guy then what they picked. Just like Bradway wanted Russell Wilson but the GM went a different direction. 

[varjet]

My prediction is that that Jets swing very hard for Cousins, just like they swung for Hightower and Jefferson last off season, but come up short.  That is what I would do if I were him.  It is the best way for him to keep his job. 

I think the wildcard here is Brian Heimerdinger.  He is the Pro Personnel Guy.  He has been finding the castoffs that has kept the Jets above Browns quality.  I am in the process of looking at the 12 Playoff Teams and highlighting the players that they drafted reasonably close to after the Jets picked.  It is not pretty.  Not only has Mac not been able to draft a QB, I think his drafting overall has been awful.  

This is why the Chiefs are dangling Alex Smith.   They know that a desperate team will overpay for him.  They think that team is the Jets.  I hope they are wrong.

[DMan77]

How many GMs find a franchise QB blindly and on either luck or with a high pick? I would say 90% of them.

I don't buy into there being a surplus of GMs out there that we could sign who can pluck out a QB where no one else sees him. They all take chances. They all roll the dice. 

I don't think finding a remarkable QB is a skill that a GM can have. I think it's a complete roll of the dice. They all look at the same film, the same data, the same interviews. Sometimes one makes a move and it works and suddenly they're a guru... Other times someone else rolls the dice and they look like a fool. But I don't think either had some sort of mysterious advantage. 

[dbatesman]

3 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

personnel guy

                /dbatesman

[LionelRichie]

14 minutes ago, MDL_JET said:

Yawn. He passed on Watson, so now he's completely incapable of finding a QB? Right. 

I don't think Macc actually understands premium positions and relative value in today's NFL.   You cannot take a Safety at #6 overall with multiple QB's on the board and tell me that Macc understands the importance / cost of each position.   

QB, Pass Rush, LT, WR - these are the premium positions in today's NFL and Macc has basically ignored them all with the exception of the Hackenburg pick.   

[varjet]

2 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

How many GMs find a franchise QB blindly and on either luck or with a high pick? I would say 90% of them.

I don't buy into their being a surplus of GMs out there that we could sign who can pluck out a QB where no one else sees him. They all take chances. They all roll the dice. 

I don't think finding a remarkable QB is a skill that a GM can have. I think it's a complete roll of the dice. They all look at the same film, the same data, the same interviews. Sometimes one makes a move and it works and suddenly they're a guru... Other times someone else rolls the dice and they look like a fool. But I don't think either had some sort of mysterious advantage. 

It is a combination of the GM, the Coaching Staff's ability to spot talent, and then the Coaching Staff's ability to develop that QB and fit him into a system.

Yes, we all have fun ragging on Sanchez, Shottenheimer and Ryan, and Sanchez and Ryan both immaturely imploded, but the Jets organization did scout Sanchez, traded up to get him, and fit him in system that won 4 playoff games in 2 years.  Sounds easy right?  

I don't see the current Jets organization being 10 miles from being able to accomplish the same thing this year, which they theoretically could do by drafting Mayfield and fitting him into an offense that works for him.  

[Kleckineau]

Also if he goes into desperation mode and gets baited into trading up (needlessly) a spot or two for Mayfield drafting that kid will be Macc's ticket out of town.

[dbatesman]

15 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

How many GMs find a franchise QB blindly and on either luck or with a high pick? I would say 90% of them.

I don't buy into their being a surplus of GMs out there that we could sign who can pluck out a QB where no one else sees him. They all take chances. They all roll the dice. 

I don't think finding a remarkable QB is a skill that a GM can have. I think it's a complete roll of the dice. They all look at the same film, the same data, the same interviews. Sometimes one makes a move and it works and suddenly they're a guru... Other times someone else rolls the dice and they look like a fool. But I don't think either had some sort of mysterious advantage. 

I think this is true to some extent, but there are ways to improve your odds and Maccagnan hasn't taken advantage of a single one.

[jetsons]

I'll help him out...  MAYFIELD!!!!!!!

[Philc1]

Macc is the worst evaluator of the qb position the jets have ever had and that is saying something 

[Philc1]

7 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

Also if he goes into desperation mode and gets baited into trading up (needlessly) a spot or two for Mayfield drafting that kid will be Macc's ticket out of town.

He’s going to panic and draft Baker Manziel after he misses out on Cousins,Darnold and Rosen

[Jet Nut]

28 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

Mac's career track record as a scout and as a GM s is poor when it comes to QB's so yes, Jets fans should b worried.  Unless several of these college QB's all of a sudden turn into a slam dunk, can't miss prospect, Mac has to properly identify which one he rates the highest and then trade up to get him if necessary.

If he's swings and misses this year he will almost certainly be out of a job so the pressure is on to pick a winner.

Ove his career who has he scouted, recommended or voted down?

 

[Freemanm]

14 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

Also if he goes into desperation mode and gets baited into trading up (needlessly) a spot or two for Mayfield drafting that kid will be Macc's ticket out of town.

The Giants, in my opinion, are the real wildcard in the draft. The Browns and Broncos are the two teams guaranteed to take a QB in the first round. The Colts obviously aren't going QB in round 1 unless Luck's career is over. So that should leave Mayfield or Allen still on the board. What do the Giants do? Should they keep building around Eli, who has maybe three quality seasons left in the tank (and that's a big maybe)? If the Giants go QB, who's left at six?

I think you'll see Macc make a deal with the Browns in the Giants snag Josh Allen or Mayfield.

[jack48]

I havent got an ounce of confidence in any of them

[varjet]

15 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

He’s going to panic and draft Baker Manziel after he misses out on Cousins,Darnold and Rosen

If he does that naturally at 6, and signs McCown, I can see that being a decent path for the Jets.  I think Morton can come up with an offense for Mayfield-they will be competitive and entertaining.  Super Bowl?  Don't know, but interesting to watch.  In a couple of years the Jets can start to look for a potential replacement/competition for Mayfield if they don't want to pay him $30mm/year when his contract expires.  Use all the picks and cap dollars to build the team out.  

How can Mayfield be worse than Petty or Fitz?

[JustInFudge]

**** no we cant be confident.  The idea of Mac drafting a QB is scary as hell. 

Hence my preference to sign Cousins. 

[slats]

Honestly, if he sucks so bad, I hope he misses on Cousins, gets exposed with his crappy QB pick, and gets canned. Probably the better move for the franchise than him saving his own ass with a $29.9M QB and a 9-7 record. 

[section314]

I am heartened that Elway is picking in front of us. Maybe he can use his magic again and take this years Paxton Lynch at 5.

[varjet]

1 minute ago, slats said:

Honestly, if he sucks so bad, I hope he misses on Cousins, gets exposed with his crappy QB pick, and gets canned. Probably the better move for the franchise than him saving his own ass with a $29.9M QB and a 9-7 record. 

Mac knows that.  The only reason that he misses on Cousins is because Cousins says he does not want to play for a team that will be replacing its FO and CS in 2019.  That in and of itself could be the end of MacBowles.  

[ScarletKnight89]

Besides not taking Hack I don't know what more Macc could QB wise to put us in a better position right now.

If you believe in Watson and Mahomes that's fine but they have such a small sample size of NFL playing time. Mariota, Winston, Goff, and Wentz were not available for him to take and people have said he's tried to trade up.

I just don't see the guy in the drafts he's had that's a proven QB that he passed on. Dak Prescott? I can't believe that Prescott would be as good here as he was in Dallas for last year and most of this year. The guy has throwing problems. A lot of people wanted him to take Paxton Lynch and he stayed away.

Whose the guy he could have had in FA that he missed the boat on? The only guy who comes to mind in Case Keenum whose showing he can play. Who else? Mike Glennon? Jay Cutler? I think McCown is a better signing than both of those guys because he was much cheaper and we knew he wasn't the answer at QB.

I guess what I'm saying is that I just don't think Macc has had a real shot to land a real QB, unless I'm missing somebody. This off season its looks like there is going to be a pretty good FA market and draft class of QBs available. I think its fair to give him this off season to try and land his guy.

[joewilly12]

[usanyj]

Just now, joewilly12 said:

wonderful work sir

[HighPitch]

53 minutes ago, DMan77 said:

How many GMs find a franchise QB blindly and on either luck or with a high pick? I would say 90% of them.

I don't buy into their being a surplus of GMs out there that we could sign who can pluck out a QB where no one else sees him. They all take chances. They all roll the dice. 

I don't think finding a remarkable QB is a skill that a GM can have. I think it's a complete roll of the dice. They all look at the same film, the same data, the same interviews. Sometimes one makes a move and it works and suddenly they're a guru... Other times someone else rolls the dice and they look like a fool. But I don't think either had some sort of mysterious advantage. 

Possibly.

and since we never, ever draft qbs in 1st or 2nd rounds we always are stuck with a qb nightmare

[HessStation]

He's been horrible. I've been pretty tolerant with a wait and see approach, haven't really got on him, wanted to give him at least three years. And horrible, just horrible to this point. 

[SenorGato]

I don’t know that he’s the guy to finish the job but really reeeeeeeeeally like the set up this offseason so long as they land a QB (preferably Cousins). After that fix the O-line and the Jets are in bidness.