400 touches?

[Sperm Edwards]

14 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

A solid reason for the team with nothing on offense and the second most to spend in FA to stay away!

He’s a rare talent. He’s the first player in history to average in a season more than 100 YPG rushing and 50 yards reciever. He did that at 24. He’s 26(!) next year. That’s falls firmly into the extremely rare category. 

Lots of these "records" are the result of opportunity more than singular talent. Until the day comes where it's provable others wouldn't have been able to do the same in the same situation (same team, same opponents. 

Not long ago Mo was in your "rare" category (on a HOF trajectory or whatever, which would certainly qualify as "rare" to most if he actually was). 

Again, the team barely skipped a beat with DeAngelo Williams, who was clearly past his prime at age 32, until he got injured himself. If they'd dropped from a top 5 running team to a bottom 10 running team in his absence, then I'd be more convinced.

He's really good. Everyone really good isn't a rare talent, though.

[shuler82]

1 hour ago, Lupz27 said:

Just saw that, math was a strong suit of mine when I used to properly keep my brain in shape, so yeah signing Bell does absolutely zero to the Jets in terms of being able to improve the roster next season, come years 3, 4, and 5 IF Bell turns into a useless sh*t, or his off field issues rear their ugly head that’s when his signing could become an issue cap wise, but every single team HAS to go through a year or 2 with cap issues at some point it’s just the way it’s structured in this league if your trying to win, the teams that don’t get affected by it are the ones that draft consistently well from rounds 1-7 in the draft, or have the unicorn type QB like Brady, and Rodgers.

I was just piggybacking off of Gato's trolling. I agree with you on Bell.  In ordinary circumstances he probably wouldn't be worth bringing in with the contract he'll demand, but with our cap space and need for offensive firepower (especially with the likelihood of either a rookie or mid-tier Vet QB) I say bring him in. The team will still have plenty of ammunition in cap space and draft picks to build around him

[SenorGato]

41 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lots of these "records" are the result of opportunity more than singular talent. Until the day comes where it's provable others wouldn't have been able to do the same in the same situation (same team, same opponents. 

Not long ago Mo was in your "rare" category (on a HOF trajectory or whatever, which would certainly qualify as "rare" to most if he actually was). 

Again, the team barely skipped a beat with DeAngelo Williams, who was clearly past his prime at age 32, until he got injured himself. If they'd dropped from a top 5 running team to a bottom 10 running team in his absence, then I'd be more convinced.

He's really good. Everyone really good isn't a rare talent, though.

So no one had the “opportunity” to set any “records” before Bell? Wtf kinda...who could possibly fall for this? 

Things I never said don’t make Bell a lesser player either, Sperm. Actually you come close enough this time as he *was* without your powers of hindsight at the time on a HOF trajectory - Wilkerson busting does not mean Bell does. 

Next toss at the dart board by you...This same Williams who took 98 carries for 3.5 yards a pop last year? This overwhelming performance somehow make Bell a lesser player? Super cas lol 

He’s the best RB in the NFL and literally did something no one else in the history of the game has. Again, that firmly falls into the rare category. 

[rangerous]

5 hours ago, Jetster said:

Completely agree. I was shocked we had fans interested. Too much $. Who would you rather have right now, Bell or Kamara? Let's find our Kamara with that 2nd or 3rd rounder. One of the guys you mentioned, maybe 2 will be there at #5 in the 2nd round. Macc will bee looking at Pass rush, OL or CB 1st with that high of pick. A lot of good players fall at the top of the 2nd, at 5 Macc has got to find another impact player. Finally hit on Maye last year, needs to do it again!

agree bell would cost too much but one reason why you sign a guy like him instead of using draft picks is because he's a known commodity and those same 2nd and 3rd round picks are where you will find the good quality beefy players for the oline and dline.

[j4jets]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

lol

I'd love to hear the explanation for that one.

I’d tell you, but I’m no mod here. 

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It's not so much comparing his "HOF" credentials as the comparison to someone who stayed remarkably - almost impossibly - healthy for the RB position. 

The overall length of the contract is irrelevant, but in terms of the guaranteed portion absolutely nobody's offering Bell a contract with 3 years guaranteed. Typically only QBs get that much guaranteed outright (and special/franchise QBs at that). Rarely you'll see a meatheaded contract like the one Tannenbaum awarded to David Harris, with 3 years guaranteed, but it's unusual to say the least.

He's not such a rare talent IMO. There are plenty of RBs who would be - and have been - productive on that team (e.g. 32 year-old DeAngelo Williams starting 10 games in place of an injured Bell). Not quite as productive as Bell, of course, but he's not Adrian Peterson. His career ypc is 4.3 and it's not like he's getting mostly short-yardage work where that low number is balanced out by 15-20 TDs per season.

He's excellent, and certainly better than anyone we've had in some time (maybe ever), but he's not in the "rare" category along with the likes of Peterson, Lynch, Barry, Brown, etc. Those guys were productive even when their line wasn't, and even playing behind such non-threats to the secondary as QBs like Tavaris Jackson, Trent Edwards, Rodney Peete, Christian Ponder, etc. 

The one difference with Bell compared to all the guys mentioned as not rare like is he has caught over 75 receptions 3 of his 5 years something none of those guys can say they have done on top of rushing the ball 300+ carries a year, I honestly think that is something you overlooked in evaluating him, and not considering there is a chance at the end of his career he could be mentioned in the same breath as those names above.

[Lupz27]

56 minutes ago, shuler82 said:

I was just piggybacking off of Gato's trolling. I agree with you on Bell.  In ordinary circumstances he probably wouldn't be worth bringing in with the contract he'll demand, but with our cap space and need for offensive firepower (especially with the likelihood of either a rookie or mid-tier Vet QB) I say bring him in. The team will still have plenty of ammunition in cap space and draft picks to build around him

Yeah exactly it’s the perfect storm for the Jets to be able to gamble on a player like him, and not worry if it back fires as much as you would have to in normal circumstances basically like 2015 with Revis.

[32EBoozer]

6 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Well 400 Trillion Sperm was one of the 2 titles I was thinking of for the sequel. It was between that and Dishnorable Discharge.

Then I got laid and scrapped the project.

 

Awwwfully nice of Mikey to do you a solid!

[Bugg]

6 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Yeah for comparison sake, Curtis Martin at the age of 26, and 5 years in the league which matches Bell exactly (next season 26 years old, and 5 year playing career to date) came off back to back 400 touch seasons, and in the 5 years after he produced at minimum 1450ish yards, and 1950ish yards. Yes I am comparing him to a HOF RB, but to be fair to Bell his first 5 years can be argued if they run the same course for 4-5 more years he would be a on the field results sure fire HOF RB after he retires.

So is it risky absolutely, every single long term contract with any player is risky, some more then others obviously that’s up to the Jets to do their jobs, and research on the player on, and off the field, and if they don’t come up with any medical issues, and are satisfied with their intel on his off field issues then I really don’t see a reason not to offer a 5 year contract with the first 3 guaranteed at the going rate for such a special talent IMO.

Larry Johnson was also run into the ground, 400_ carries,  with KC by Herman Edwards. Problem is these guys take a great deal of wear and tear with that many carries. Giving a back off a 400+ carry season a long term contract is throwing money away in the out years. If Bell wanted a 2 year deal with a team option, may be. Because Seasons 2 and 3 are probably going to be terrible. Steelers' intent to very likely franchise tag him for 1 more years is eminently sensible. 

[Bugg]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lots of these "records" are the result of opportunity more than singular talent. Until the day comes where it's provable others wouldn't have been able to do the same in the same situation (same team, same opponents. 

Not long ago Mo was in your "rare" category (on a HOF trajectory or whatever, which would certainly qualify as "rare" to most if he actually was). 

Again, the team barely skipped a beat with DeAngelo Williams, who was clearly past his prime at age 32, until he got injured himself. If they'd dropped from a top 5 running team to a bottom 10 running team in his absence, then I'd be more convinced.

He's really good. Everyone really good isn't a rare talent, though.

Bell is talented, but he isn't off the charts. Often a function of a coach feeding a back the ball because he's a better option rather than any other back on the roster by a wide difference. And a solid OL above all plays a major factor. Jets have not drafted a solid early round  OL guy in forever. 

[SenorGato]

45 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Bell is talented, but he isn't off the charts. Often a function of a coach feeding a back the ball because he's a better option rather than any other back on the roster by a wide difference. And a solid OL above all plays a major factor. Jets have not drafted a solid early round  OL guy in forever. 

He’s literally off the charts! No one else has done the 100/50 YPG combo thing! 

I bolded that one part because this is an interesting strategy by coaches. 

[Jetster]

55 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Bell is talented, but he isn't off the charts. Often a function of a coach feeding a back the ball because he's a better option rather than any other back on the roster by a wide difference. And a solid OL above all plays a major factor. Jets have not drafted a solid early round  OL guy in forever. 

I disagree. And I'm not saying we go after Bell, I'm more in the draft a RB in the 2nd round guy but Bells talent is undeniable. I love the way he surveys & BAM, turns upfield. He's slippery as hell too. He's got amazing hands out of the backfield. He's a much younger, better version of Matt Forte and Forte was fun when healthy. 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 hours ago, SenorGato said:

So no one had the “opportunity” to set any “records” before Bell? Wtf kinda...who could possibly fall for this? 

Things I never said don’t make Bell a lesser player either, Sperm. Actually you come close enough this time as he *was* without your powers of hindsight at the time on a HOF trajectory - Wilkerson busting does not mean Bell does. 

Next toss at the dart board by you...This same Williams who took 98 carries for 3.5 yards a pop last year? This overwhelming performance somehow make Bell a lesser player? Super cas lol 

He’s the best RB in the NFL and literally did something no one else in the history of the game has. Again, that firmly falls into the rare category. 

Sure, if DeAngelo Williams finally hits the wall at age 33 - his final NFL season, employed only as a backup/emergency back - and only gets 3.5 ypc that is of course proof of any silly thing you imagine up. That’s brilliant.

Meanwhile at age 32 - well past his prime - he was filling Bell’s shoes quite adequately until he got injured as well. Signed to be a backup at that point in his career, Williams rushed for more TDs in a 10-start season than Bell’s finest and most productive complete season.

No one’s saying Bell’s not a terrific back. He is. He’s just not on the rare/other-worldly level you claim. Perhaps he’d have rushed for 10 TDs in a season even once. Or approached (never mind eclipsed) a 1500-yd rushing season once. Or averaged over 5 ypc in a season once with all that open space Pitt’s deadly passing attack affords him (never mind for his career like Barry). This has been the prime years of his career and those are gaping absences on his resume.

It’s hard to label any RB as a rare talent if he’s never taken it to the house from beyond midfield even once. And only once has he taken a handoff into the EZ from beyond the red zone in 5 NFL seasons. Even meh rookie Elijah McGuire had one this year, and this non-speed demon’s TD - in limited attempts, behind a shit OL - was almost twice as long as any in Bell’s entire career. Powell had 2 just this year alone from beyond midfield, and he’s no elite sprinter himself. Get that? Bilal Powell at age 29 was more of a homerun threat, to take it to the house from midfield or beyond, than Bell during his first 5 NFL seasons.

Bell is a really good back. We all would love to have had him on the team, and would really love for us to have drafted him instead of freaking Jace Amaro. But RB is not a position that gets better with age and he’s simply not the rare RB you paint him as being, let alone worthy of the stupid guaranteed dollars long term that you unsurprisingly think he’s worth.

[Sperm Edwards]

What’s most concerning (or nearly as concerning as his injury history) is this year’s ypc numbers. 

Basically, as the OL goes, so goes Le’Veon Bell. When the OL is playing elite - not to mention along with Ben & Brown keeping safeties deep and the defenders leaning on their heels - he’s often looked like the best back around (except in the scoring TDs or elite rushing yardage departments, of course). When the OL is not - like this season, or like the Jets’ OL - he’s just a 4.0 ypc RB (albeit a very well-rounded one), even with that QB-WR duo as deadly as ever.

Point being he’s not anywhere near AD II. Now he was a truly rare RB talent who carried his team’s otherwise Jets-esque offense and was a TD threat no matter the Vikings’ field position. 

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

The one difference with Bell compared to all the guys mentioned as not rare like is he has caught over 75 receptions 3 of his 5 years something none of those guys can say they have done on top of rushing the ball 300+ carries a year, I honestly think that is something you overlooked in evaluating him, and not considering there is a chance at the end of his career he could be mentioned in the same breath as those names above.

I didn’t overlook it. He’s a terrific back; no one doubts that.

He will never be mentioned with those other backs at the end of his career. I think you’re the one overlooking how incredibly special - how truly rare - those other backs were. 

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, 32EBoozer said:

 

Awwwfully nice of Mikey to do you a solid!

OK I admit it. I read this a couple of times and still don’t get it.

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Sure, if DeAngelo Williams finally hits the wall at age 33 - his final NFL season, employed only as a backup/emergency back - and only gets 3.5 ypc that is of course proof of any silly thing you imagine up. That’s brilliant.

Meanwhile at age 32 - well past his prime - he was filling Bell’s shoes quite adequately until he got injured as well. Signed to be a backup at that point in his career, Williams scored more TDs in 10 starts than Bell’s finest and most productive complete season.

No one’s saying Bell’s not a terrific back. He is. He’s just not on the rare/other-worldly level you claim. Perhaps he’d have rushed for 10 TDs in a season even once. Or a 1500-yd rushing season once. Or averaged over 5 ypc in a season once with all that open space Pitt’s deadly passing attack affords him (never mind for his career like Barry). This has been the prime years of his career and those are gaping absences on his resume.

It’s hard to label any RB as a rare talent if he’s never taken it to the house from beyond midfield even once. And only once has he taken a handoff into the EZ from beyond the red zone in 5 NFL seasons. Even meh rookie Elijah McGuire had one this year, and this non-speed demon’s TD - in limited attempts, behind a sh*t OL - was almost twice as long as any in Bell’s entire career. Powell had 2 just this year alone from beyond midfield, and he’s no elite sprinter himself. Get that? Bilal Powell at age 29 was more of a homerun threat to take it to the house from midfield or beyond than Bell in his first 5 NFL seasons.

Bell is a really good back. We all would love to have had him on the team, and would really love for us to have drafted him instead of freaking Jace Amaro. But RB is not a position that gets better with age and he’s simply not the rare RB you paint him as being, let alone worthy of the stupid guaranteed dollars long term that you unsurprisingly think he’s worth.

- No one’s saying you’re are saying Bell is less than a terrific back. Your angle is that he is not a rare back. Yet of all the RBs, as super fungible and same as they all are, he has pulled off unique performance as a pro. That falls firmly under the definition of rare, as rare players do rare things on the field. I know your gut and your heart tell you otherwise, but this is a rare player on paper. If all your focus is on what Bell is not doing then yes the stuff the doesn’t do is shared by many. The stuff he does is not, hence rare. 

- Also terrific back really undersells that the best and most versatile back in the game is hitting FA at 26. 

- You claim Williams scored more TDs than Bell ever has with 11 in 2016. Bell has put up 11 TDs twice. 

 - Much of the argument against Bell is the swift decline of RBs. Ignoring tiny important things like contract strucure and specific cap situations during 2018 FA - a 32 YO back supposedly matched the best running back in football. More reason to pause on Bell? Nope. 

- “Not taking it to town from mid field” or whatever is a Sperm specialty - the imaginary and arbitrary bench mark made up on the spot to prop up an argument. Not a thing! I like how “Elijah McGuire did it” somehow damns Bell, woo those mental gymnatic skills. Cas lol 

- He’s by far the best back in the league in the pass game and one of the handful best rushers. Overall he’s the most valuable RB in the sport and hitting FA at just 26. This is a rare player in a rare situation. The Jets have tons of money, nothing on the roster to pay, a cap penalty looming, and the need to add offensive playmakers. On top of all that they will be breaking in a new QB. It’s a fantastic fit that, thanks to general wisdom turned dogma, would be a talent steal waiting to happen for the Jets.

 

[SenorGato]

55 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Point being he’s not anywhere near AD II. Now he was a truly rare RB talent who carried his team’s otherwise Jets-esque offense and was a TD threat no matter the Vikings’ field position. 

Who cares?! They’re completely different players who have nothing to do with one another! Peterson isn’t Bell in the passing game anyway and Bell is doing that now rather than 5 years ago! 

[Lupz27]

11 hours ago, Bugg said:

Larry Johnson was also run into the ground, 400_ carries,  with KC by Herman Edwards. Problem is these guys take a great deal of wear and tear with that many carries. Giving a back off a 400+ carry season a long term contract is throwing money away in the out years. If Bell wanted a 2 year deal with a team option, may be. Because Seasons 2 and 3 are probably going to be terrible. Steelers' intent to very likely franchise tag him for 1 more years is eminently sensible. 

I mean maybe you read the post wrong, but it clearly states that Martin at the exact same point where Bell is in his career got 5 more elite years AFTER getting 400 touches in each of the previous 2 years prior to those 5 years so it’s not impossible to get 3-5 more years of this kind of production with Bell.

[Lupz27]

7 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I didn’t overlook it. He’s a terrific back; no one doubts that.

He will never be mentioned with those other backs at the end of his career. I think you’re the one overlooking how incredibly special - how truly rare - those other backs were. 

Using a word like never is ridiculous when his first 5 years besides TD’s is probably as impressive as AP’s you have no proof other then OPINION to say he can’t do this for 5 more years which would give him up to 750 receptions for his career roughly, and another 9k-11k yards on top of his already 9k yards he has so far in his career (from scrimmage), so if he hits 20k yards for his career yeah get the gold jacket ready he is a lock to be a HOFer, and probably a first ballot one at that.

[Bugg]

3 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

I mean maybe you read the post wrong, but it clearly states that Martin at the exact same point where Bell is in his career got 5 more elite years AFTER getting 400 touches in each of the previous 2 years prior to those 5 years so it’s not impossible to get 3-5 more years of this kind of production with Bell.

Not to ignite a nuclear weapon, but does the word "compiler" mean anything to you? If you give a good back a sh1tload of carries and he averages 3+ yards, he's going to rack up the yards. If you have nobody else on the roster, fine. But when you have other options to spread the ball around to, that is not such a smart decision. It's not impossible to get 3-5 productive years, but it's also not very likely if NFL history is any guide. Any back you feed that many carries to is going to be worse for wear. Martin may not have been the best choice for a lot of those late career carries under Edwards. You can comb through some old threads with some real math we all did way back-"Martin" "compiler".  

[Lupz27]

3 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Not to ignite a nuclear weapon, but does the word "compiler" mean anything to you? If you give a good back a sh1tload of carries and he averages 3+ yards, he's going to rack up the yards. If you have nobody else on the roster, fine. But when you have other options to spread the ball around to, that is not such a smart decision. It's not impossible to get 3-5 productive years, but it's also not very likely if NFL history is any guide. Any back you feed that many carries to is going to be worse for wear. Martin may not have been the best choice for a lot of those late career carries under Edwards. You can comb through some old threads with some real math we all did way back-"Martin" "compiler".  

You want to call Martin a compiler fine, but Bell’s first 5 years off elite production is not from him being a “compiler”.  Also Martin had 1900+ yards from scrimmage his 10th year in the league however the **** he got to that number is super impressive for a RB to be able to achieve that kind of season never mind a 30 year old in his 10th season.

[Scott Dierking]

4 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

 you have no proof other then OPINION to say he can’t do this for 5 more years 

History tells us it is unlikely.

[SenorGato]

45 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

History tells us it is unlikely.

It really doesn’t. 

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

Not to ignite a nuclear weapon, but does the word "compiler" mean anything to you? If you give a good back a sh1tload of carries and he averages 3+ yards, he's going to rack up the yards. If you have nobody else on the roster, fine. But when you have other options to spread the ball around to, that is not such a smart decision. It's not impossible to get 3-5 productive years, but it's also not very likely if NFL history is any guide. Any back you feed that many carries to is going to be worse for wear. Martin may not have been the best choice for a lot of those late career carries under Edwards. You can comb through some old threads with some real math we all did way back-"Martin" "compiler".  

Bell has one 300 carry season in 5, which is hardly the kind of excessive workload for a RB you seem to want to paint. 

[Bugg]

Just now, SenorGato said:

Bell has one 300 carry season in 5, which is hardly the kind of excessive workload for a RB you seem to want to paint. 

Would bet without even looking the number of backs with 1000+ yard or 300+ carry seasons has dropped dramatically since Larry Johnson and Curtis Martin retired. In part because it's more of a passing game. Rushing the ball is more of a way to keep the defense honest and run clock than how you sustain drives. The DL guys get bigger and faster every year; nobody runs all that well between the tackles.

But in part because under the cap rules nobody wants to pay one big back a ton of cap space since they age in dog years. Better and more fiscally sensible to spread the carries around. While the drop off from Bell to the other Steeler backs might be dramatic, on most rosters it isn't. 

[SenorGato]

47 minutes ago, Bugg said:

Would bet without even looking the number of backs with 1000+ yard or 300+ carry seasons has dropped dramatically since Larry Johnson and Curtis Martin retired. In part because it's more of a passing game. Rushing the ball is more of a way to keep the defense honest and run clock than how you sustain drives. The DL guys get bigger and faster every year; nobody runs all that well between the tackles.

But in part because under the cap rules nobody wants to pay one big back a ton of cap space since they age in dog years. Better and more fiscally sensible to spread the carries around. While the drop off from Bell to the other Steeler backs might be dramatic, on most rosters it isn't. 

- I don’t understand how your first paragraph explains why Bell is a bad bet. That individual RB workloads have gone down signficiantly would work in his favor for longevity, not against him. He’s the best RB in the league in the passing game, to the point he accomplished something no other other player has, so point Bell there too. 

- Money has nothing to do with how the carries are split. The Falcons gave Johnson a big contract and still use Tevin Coleman because it’s smart, which trumps frugal anyday. 

The cap rules aren’t holding people back on Bell so much as a fairly recent conventional wisdom is. I question the validity of this fairly recent conventional wisdom about RBs. In the past few years the position has produced multiple extremely high draft picks and legitimate MVP candidates (Bell, Gurley, Elliot, Fournette). In a league where offensive efficiency has become most valuable the position that eliminates the INT completely and turns the ball over less than the QB has had a renaissance. That little dip in value they had for a few years happened but the position is back. Throw in that Bell is a game changer in the passing game at the position and he’s a wildly valuable player. At 26 with only 1291 carries under his belt (which comes to to like 25something a season or something) it’s a really tough sell that he’s toast or a bad bet to remain productive. 

The cap is set up where the Jets only have to be all in on this guy for ages 26-28. They got a strong season out of a similar but slightly lesser player, Forte, at 30 in 2015. 

[Lupz27]

2 hours ago, Scott Dierking said:

History tells us it is unlikely.

 

1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

It really doesn’t. 

Even if it does it doesn’t show us it’s impossible, and this particular player is on the same trajectory as the unlikely ones were.

[Bugg]

48 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

- I don’t understand how your first paragraph explains why Bell is a bad bet. That individual RB workloads have gone down signficiantly would work in his favor for longevity, not against him. He’s the best RB in the league in the passing game, to the point he accomplished something no other other player has, so point Bell there too. 

- Money has nothing to do with how the carries are split. The Falcons gave Johnson a big contract and still use Tevin Coleman because it’s smart, which trumps frugal anyday. 

The cap rules aren’t holding people back on Bell so much as a fairly recent conventional wisdom is. I question the validity of this fairly recent conventional wisdom about RBs. In the past few years the position has produced multiple extremely high draft picks and legitimate MVP candidates (Bell, Gurley, Elliot, Fournette). In a league where offensive efficiency has become most valuable the position that eliminates the INT completely and turns the ball over less than the QB has had a renaissance. That little dip in value they had for a few years happened but the position is back. Throw in that Bell is a game changer in the passing game at the position and he’s a wildly valuable player. At 26 with only 1291 carries under his belt (which comes to to like 25something a season or something) it’s a really tough sell that he’s toast or a bad bet to remain productive. 

The cap is set up where the Jets only have to be all in on this guy for ages 26-28. They got a strong season out of a similar but slightly lesser player, Forte, at 30 in 2015. 

Because probably he's going to want mega salary for 4-6 years, and after about year 2 he simply is not going to be the same player, if NFL history is any guide. And even if he is still productive, by the nature of how RBs get used in 2017, he will be diminished enough that the RBs at the back of the roster wont be much of a dropoff. Not badmouthing him, he right now is  tremendous player. But think the Steelers' other backs are probably not very good, which is why he gets so many carries.In essence giving him a huge long term contract would be a bad idea. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 hours ago, Bugg said:

Not to ignite a nuclear weapon, but does the word "compiler" mean anything to you? If you give a good back a sh1tload of carries and he averages 3+ yards, he's going to rack up the yards. If you have nobody else on the roster, fine. But when you have other options to spread the ball around to, that is not such a smart decision. It's not impossible to get 3-5 productive years, but it's also not very likely if NFL history is any guide. Any back you feed that many carries to is going to be worse for wear. Martin may not have been the best choice for a lot of those late career carries under Edwards. You can comb through some old threads with some real math we all did way back-"Martin" "compiler".  

 

@Bleedin Green

@Savage69

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, Bugg said:

Because probably he's going to want mega salary for 4-6 years, and after about year 2 he simply is not going to be the same player, if NFL history is any guide. And even if he is still productive, by the nature of how RBs get used in 2017, he will be diminished enough that the RBs at the back of the roster wont be much of a dropoff. Not badmouthing him, he right now is  tremendous player. But think the Steelers' other backs are probably not very good, which is why he gets so many carries.In essence giving him a huge long term contract would be a bad idea. 

Even if I were to believe the bold is how NFL contracts work in the end, I wholly disagree with him being finished within two years for unexplained reasons anyway. 

That a RB may emerge in years two or three is a *good* thing. Now you have two high quality players! On offense! The thing is that RB isn’t here now in 2018, will most likely be a non-first draft pick, and may not exist in the first place.

Also your perspective on compilng makes it sound like anyone who is a starter or produces numbers is a compiler, implying that doing their jobs repeatedly well is a bad thing.  Coaches give the better players touches, not sure how that is a knock on Bell given that he’s proven to be no one year wonder. It’s not as if the Steelers are some two bit franchise who just give snaps away hoping to just get through the year like the Jets. 

[Scott Dierking]

1 hour ago, Lupz27 said:

 

Even if it does it doesn’t show us it’s impossible, and this particular player is on the same trajectory as the unlikely ones were.

Not a gamble worth taking. Bell's trajectory (as a whole) shows a likelihood of decreasing production within 2 years. As well, his past shows us an inability to stay on the field. On top of that, he seems to have the temperament that he can easily live without the game (ie, cash in and he's comfortable).

Pass for me

[SenorGato]

11 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Not a gamble worth taking. Bell's trajectory (as a whole) shows a likelihood of decreasing production within 2 years. As well, his past shows us an inability to stay on the field. On top of that, he seems to have the temperament that he can easily live without the game (ie, cash in and he's comfortable).

Pass for me

Yeah, that is completely made up for what it’s intended to mean. As worded he could “decrease in production”  as little as going from 1600 yards from scrimage (which is selling short the value of those yards, includes the injured 2015) and 8 TDs a season to 1599 yards and 7 TDs. 

 

[JetFaninMI]

On 1/12/2018 at 12:55 PM, RoadFan said:

I would like to see LeV return to Michigan...  a great fit with the Lions.

This is what I have been speculating for quite some time. Bell would look good in their back field as they haven't had an RB for almost as long as the Jets have been without a QB.They are also rumored to be all in on Robinson as well. If they can add those two pieces on Offense look for them to go heavy on OL and DL in the draft. If they can't get Bell it looks like they love Guice as well.

[SenorGato]

Bell looks good in anyone’s backfield. The Jets could have as much as $60 million more to spend than the Lions do.