400 touches?

[JetFaninMI]

5 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Bell looks good in anyone’s backfield. The Jets could have as much as $60 million more to spend than the Lions do. 

Well it really doesn't matter how money you got. If the guy doesn't want to play for you you're screwed.

[SenorGato]

11 minutes ago, JetFaninMI said:

Well it really doesn't matter how money you got. If the guy doesn't want to play for you you're screwed.

Sure, and the #1 incentive to play for anyone is money. 

[Lupz27]

41 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Not a gamble worth taking. Bell's trajectory (as a whole) shows a likelihood of decreasing production within 2 years. As well, his past shows us an inability to stay on the field. On top of that, he seems to have the temperament that he can easily live without the game (ie, cash in and he's comfortable).

Pass for me

Everything you said here is 100% not true, and your biased opinion that can be said about ANY player in the NFL at ANY position.

“Cash in, and he is comfortable” show me ANY proof that predicts this?  Everything I’ve seen from him is he loves the game, and loves winning, he has made over 20 million already yet he is still taking the rock 400+ times, all he said was if I’m gonna do this I better damn well be compensated for it, how is he not right with that statement?  IF he said it last year before being franchised tagged once fine, but getting a 2nd franchise tag is BS, sh*t getting 1 is BS this needs to disappear these owners need to start sharing their money, I know it’s hard to sympathize with a guy making millions like Bell, but the owners are making BILLIONS off them, and not putting their bodies at harm.

Also how does his trajectory show a “likelihood of decreasing production” please provide me with any evidence of a RB that has accomplished what Bell has their first 5 years, and then just flamed out completely, and I’m talking about guys who have had All Pro years at least 3x in their first 5 years, and just disappeared.

His “Temperament” so now your an expert on these things, and can definitively make a proper assessment on a persons temperament from reading quotes, and listening to a few interviews?

You want to say pass fine, but don’t feed this line of BS.

[Scott Dierking]

8 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Everything you said here is 100% not true, and your biased opinion that can be said about ANY player in the NFL at ANY position.

“Cash in, and he is comfortable” show me ANY proof that predicts this?  Everything I’ve seen from him is he loves the game, and loves winning, he has made over 20 million already yet he is still taking the rock 400+ times, all he said was if I’m gonna do this I better damn well be compensated for it, how is he not right with that statement?  IF he said it last year before being franchised tagged once fine, but getting a 2nd franchise tag is BS, sh*t getting 1 is BS this needs to disappear these owners need to start sharing their money, I know it’s hard to sympathize with a guy making millions like Bell, but the owners are making BILLIONS off them, and not putting their bodies at harm.

Also how does his trajectory show a “likelihood of decreasing production” please provide me with any evidence of a RB that has accomplished what Bell has their first 5 years, and then just flamed out completely, and I’m talking about guys who have had All Pro years at least 3x in their first 5 years, and just disappeared.

His “Temperament” so now your an expert on these things, and can definitively make a proper assessment on a persons temperament from reading quotes, and listening to a few interviews?

You want to say pass fine, but don’t feed this line of BS.

First, you quote me as saying he will dissapear. I have said that his production will decline, based on history of similar RBs with his workload and age. Is that a guarantee? Of course not but it is not a risk that I would not put the guaranteed money he is looking for. 

Just me

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

[Lupz27]

All you guys against bringing Bell in for big money are using all these RB this, RB that stuff about longevity, and data after years with X amount of carries, or X amount of career carries.

While IMO none of you have stated the only real arguing point against bringing him in that I would have a tough time arguing against.  That arguing point IMO is when the Steelers decide to let someone walk instead of keep long term they have an extremely almost unbelievable track record of being 100% correct on their decision to move on from that player, I honestly can’t think of a guy in the last 20 years they let walk they continued, or became a player that made them look foolish for letting that player get away, and they rarely ever spend their money on FA’s they almost always give their money to their own drafted talent instead while picking, and choosing the right guys to keep, and the right guys to let walk.

[Bugg]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

First, you quote me as saying he will dissapear. I have said that his production will decline, based on history of similar RBs with his workload and age. Is that a guarantee? Of course not but it is not a risk that I would not put the guaranteed money he is looking for. 

Just me

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

Pain in the ass to cut and paste that, but it's a solid update on much that went on here RE: Martin, "old" RBs, etc. 

[Scott Dierking]

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 

[Lupz27]

5 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

First, you quote me as saying he will dissapear. I have said that his production will decline, based on history of similar RBs with his workload and age. Is that a guarantee? Of course not but it is not a risk that I would not put the guaranteed money he is looking for. 

Just me

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

Lol you want to compare Bell to these schleps names in this article?  Jouique Bell, Knowshon Moreno, Toby Gerhart, Donald Brown, and Ben Tate seriously?

Also the last part of that article completely kills your point as the NFL has swung back to drafting RB’s early in the 1st round again, at least 5 RB’s drafted in the top 15 picks the last 3 RB’s combined, and likely to add at least 1 more to that list this draft.

You know what I take from that article, for some reason there was a lack of top talent at the RB position for a long stretch from the late 2000’s to about 5 years ago, but the last 5 years have gotten back to producing a sh*t ton more special talented backs like the 90’s, and early 2000’s have so all that data is skewed garbage taken during a dead era at the position to come to those conclusions.

[Lupz27]

8 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 

That would predict Bell to rush for over a 1000 yards 3 more seasons, BUT it does not account for the fact Bell is not your normal RB, he also is a top 10 WR in the league.

[Scott Dierking]

3 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Lol you want to compare Bell to these schleps names in this article?  Jouique Bell, Knowshon Moreno, Toby Gerhart, Donald Brown, and Ben Tate seriously?

Also the last part of that article completely kills your point as the NFL has swung back to drafting RB’s early in the 1st round again, at least 5 RB’s drafted in the top 15 picks the last 3 RB’s combined, and likely to add at least 1 more to that list this draft.

You know what I take from that article, for some reason there was a lack of top talent at the RB position for a long stretch from the late 2000’s to about 5 years ago, but the last 5 years have gotten back to producing a sh*t ton more special talented backs like the 90’s, and early 2000’s have so all that data is skewed garbage taken during a dead era at the position to come to those conclusions.

These schleps, too, huh?

The 1,800-Carry Cliff

To answer this question I first collected data on every NFL running back whose entire career fell within the past 15 seasons, all while accumulating at least 2,000 carries.

This produced a list of the following eight tailbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson (3,174 carries), Steven Jackson (2,743 carries), Thomas Jones (2,678 carries), Jamal Lewis (2,542 carries), Frank Gore (2,442 carries), Clinton Portis (2,230 carries), Shaun Alexander (2,187 carries), and Willis McGahee (2,095 carries).

To find the point at which a player's accumulated workload begins to seriously hamper on-field performance, I then plotted the average career carries for this group of backs against their average rushing yards, touchdowns, and Net Expected Points (NEP) for each season of their careers. Rather than go into detail on what exactly NEP is, I'll let you read about it in the glossary, but in short, NEP is our in-house metric to measure a player's production above or below expectation.

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Lupz27 said:

That would predict Bell to rush for over a 1000 yards 3 more seasons, BUT it does not account for the fact Bell is not your normal RB, he also is a top 10 WR in the league.

1,000 yards a season is not much for what will be the highest paid RB in the league.

But, hey, if you want to risk your money that way, have at it. I will not and will be disappointed if Macc does so. It feels like Demarco Murray to me.

[SenorGato]

10 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

 

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/4940/measuring-nfl-running-back-longevity-falling-off-the-1-800-carry-cliff

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 

- There’s no explanation for why he only picks the last 15 seasons. 

- Bell is 500+ carries away from this.

- Almost single player listed there had this dropoff at age 29. Bell is 26 next year. Several actually had productive years past this, notably the best pass catchers in Tomlinson and Forte, but again there’s a 3 year gap from where Bell is in 2018.

- Every player on that list routinely rushed 300+ times during a season. Bell has done it once and was a legitimate MVP candidate. 

 

[SenorGato]

7 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

That would predict Bell to rush for over a 1000 yards 3 more seasons, BUT it does not account for the fact Bell is not your normal RB, he also is a top 10 WR in the league.

!!! The decline to “only” 1000 yards and 8 TDs! Coming in 3 years!

[SenorGato]

9 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

1,000 yards a season is not much for what will be the highest paid RB in the league.

But, hey, if you want to risk your money that way, have at it. I will not and will be disappointed if Macc does so. It feels like Demarco Murray to me.

Throw in his 60/550 and ~2 TDs as a WR. Is there any particular reason you’re brushing aside the passing game contributions? 

DeMarco Murray had one big year, and only as a rusher. He’s a signficantly lesser pass catcher than Bell, as are all but one or two RBs ever. 

[Bugg]

14 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

- There’s no explanation for why he only picks the last 15 seasons. 

- Bell is 500+ carries away from this.

- Almost single player listed there had this dropoff at age 29. Bell is 26 next year. Several actually had productive years past this, notably the best pass catchers in Tomlinson and Forte, but again there’s a 3 year gap from where Bell is in 2018.

- Every player on that list routinely rushed 300+ times during a season. Bell has done it once and was a legitimate MVP candidate. 

 

So you're bringing up Tomlinson and Forte and the back ends of their careers as selling points?Tomlinson was more productive than Forte, but he was injured a lot at the end of his Bolts' tenure.  I know those guys are older than Bell will be, but not by much. 

[SenorGato]

5 minutes ago, Bugg said:

So you're bringing up Tomlinson and Forte and the back ends of their careers as selling points?Tomlinson was more productive than Forte, but he was injured a lot at the end of his Bolts' tenure.  I know those guys are older than Bell will be, but not by much. 

Le’veon Bell is 26 next year. Both those guys came to the Jets at 31 and gave the Jets 1000+ all purpose yards and 6+ TDs playing five years older than Bell would in 2018. “Not by much” is 80 regular season games! 

[Lupz27]

39 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

These schleps, too, huh?

The 1,800-Carry Cliff

To answer this question I first collected data on every NFL running back whose entire career fell within the past 15 seasons, all while accumulating at least 2,000 carries.

This produced a list of the following eight tailbacks:
LaDainian Tomlinson (3,174 carries), Steven Jackson (2,743 carries), Thomas Jones (2,678 carries), Jamal Lewis (2,542 carries), Frank Gore (2,442 carries), Clinton Portis (2,230 carries), Shaun Alexander (2,187 carries), and Willis McGahee (2,095 carries).

To find the point at which a player's accumulated workload begins to seriously hamper on-field performance, I then plotted the average career carries for this group of backs against their average rushing yards, touchdowns, and Net Expected Points (NEP) for each season of their careers. Rather than go into detail on what exactly NEP is, I'll let you read about it in the glossary, but in short, NEP is our in-house metric to measure a player's production above or below expectation.

What this revealed was a very interesting and readily apparent trend when players reached the 1,800-carry milestone.

 

I guarantee you every single one of those players on that list without looking had at least 3 great seasons during these ages 26, 27, 28, 29, and 30, maybe 1 of them didn’t, and most likely because of injury not because of some data driven imaginary cliff. 

[Lupz27]

42 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

1,000 yards a season is not much for what will be the highest paid RB in the league.

But, hey, if you want to risk your money that way, have at it. I will not and will be disappointed if Macc does so. It feels like Demarco Murray to me.

But your forgetting to add the 50-80 receptions for roughly 400-800 yards per season he brings which would yes make him more then worth paying whatever the salary he will be making.  And he will only be the highest paid RB in the league the 1st year of that contract, maybe the 2nd, maybe.  So if I get 1400 yards rushing, and 60 receptions for another 500 yards year 1, and 1200 yards rushing, and 50 receptions for another 400 yards year 2 I’d be more then fine with those so called drop offs your assuming as the highest paid RB in the league, and come Year 3 when he is nowhere near the highest paid RB in the league his production will be at a serious discount compared to the pay guys like Gurley, D Johnson, Zeke Elliot, ect will be making then.

[cant wait]

On 1/12/2018 at 10:06 AM, Lith said:

Also the lowest yards per carry since his rookie year.  Not sure how much tread is left on those tires.  Add to that multiple suspensions, and I would have no interest in signing the guy.  He has been a great player, but RB is a young man's position. 

Give me a Ronald Jones/Nick Chubb/Sony Michel in the 2nd on a rookie deal instead of Bell.

he started off the season slow after holding out all of TC/preseason but he's absolutely still in his prime and a workhorse. I think he's for sure got another 3 good years left 

[Lupz27]

46 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

!!! The decline to “only” 1000 yards and 8 TDs! Coming in 3 years!

These guys just dismissing his elite ability as a receiver with these Rushing only stats is ludicrous, how many WR’s had more receptions then him this season?  The answer is 9, so he rushed for 1300 yards, but these fools can’t see that his rareness is the fact he also caught 80+ balls on top of that, and there is no reason, or data to say he can’t keep doing that while still rushing for over 1000 yards, yet guys want to pay Sammy Watkins for his 39 receptions, and less then 600 yards like WTF!  Here comes the but Watkins caught 8 TD passes crowd, guess what as a guy who has been in at least 5 fantasy leagues a year since 2004 TD’s for WR’s is a unpredictable stat, one year Calvin Johnson scored 2 TD’s, but caught passes where he was tackled inside the 5 over 15 times, and 10 of them were inside the 2 yard line, so again that 2 TD year could have easily been 15 so they can eat a dick.

[SenorGato]

3 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

These guys just dismissing his elite ability as a receiver with these Rushing only stats is ludicrous, how many WR’s had more receptions then him this season?  The answer is 9, so he rushed for 1300 yards, but these fools can’t see that his rareness is the fact he also caught 80+ balls on top of that, and there is no reason, or data to say he can’t keep doing that while still rushing for over 1000 yards, yet guys want to pay Sammy Watkins for his 39 receptions, and less then 600 yards like WTF!  Here comes the but Watkins caught 8 TD passes crowd, guess what as a guy who has been in at least 5 fantasy leagues a year since 2004 TD’s for WR’s is a unpredictable stat, one year Calvin Johnson scored 2 TD’s, but caught passes where he was tackled inside the 5 over 15 times, and 10 of them were inside the 2 yard line, so again that 2 TD year could have easily been 15 so they can eat a dick.

I’d take Watkins over any FA WR, but would take Bell over any non-Cousins offensive weaponz. Watkins also converted first downs at a higher rate than any WR this year IIRC. 

[Lupz27]

22 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

I’d take Watkins over any FA WR, but would take Bell over any non-Cousins offensive weaponz. Watkins also converted first downs at a higher rate than any WR this year IIRC. 

I used Watkins not because I don’t like him, but to show paying Bell the same, or even 2-3 mill more is by far a smarter, and a much more valuable investment.

But in truth not a fan of Watkins here unless we have a proven, or drafted QB projected to be a deadly accurate deep ball thrower, like if we had say Wentz, Ben, or even projected guys like Rosen, or in my dreams Mahomes slotted in at QB in 2018, you might be able to include Cousins in here I’m not sure if he is considered a great deep ball thrower, or not, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was considering he had success with D Jackson.

[SenorGato]

5 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

I used Watkins not because I don’t like him, but to show paying Bell the same, or even 2-3 mill more is by far a smarter, and a much more valuable investment.

But in truth not a fan of Watkins here unless we have a proven, or drafted QB projected to be a deadly accurate deep ball thrower, like if we had say Wentz, Ben, or even projected guys like Rosen, or in my dreams Mahomes slotted in at QB in 2018, you might be able to include Cousins in here I’m not sure if he is considered a great deep ball thrower, or not, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he was considering he had success with D Jackson.

The FA dream:

Cousins

Jensen

Bell

Any one or two of:

Watkins, Eifert, Burton, Robinson, Dion Lewis, Nowell, Fuller, Gaines

[Lupz27]

28 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

I’d take Watkins over any FA WR, but would take Bell over any non-Cousins offensive weaponz. Watkins also converted first downs at a higher rate than any WR this year IIRC. 

So I assume a Cousins, Bell, Watkins, Top C, and getting a TE who at the very least can be counted on as a very reliable safety valve would be a dream scenario for you in Free Agency this season?  That would cost what 70 million leaving 30 for CB 1 (Claiborne), CB 2 (?), DE, OR NT not both you address the other early in the draft after a FA class like this.  

Also you don’t have to put those average salaries in full on the 2018 Cap opening up more room to sign 1 more large piece somewhere if say you push around 15 million combined from the big 3 back into later years.

[Lupz27]

3 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

The FA dream:

Cousins

Jensen

Bell

Any one or two of:

Watkins, Eifert, Burton, Robinson, Dion Lewis, Nowell, Fuller, Gaines

Lol I nailed it with my post that I submitted at the same time 

[SenorGato]

3 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

So I assume a Cousins, Bell, Watkins, Top C, and getting a TE who at the very least can be counted on as a very reliable safety valve would be a dream scenario for you in Free Agency this season?  That would cost what 70 million leaving 30 for CB 1 (Claiborne), CB 2 (?), DE, OR NT not both you address the other early in the draft after a FA class like this.  

Also you don’t have to put those average salaries in full on the 2018 Cap opening up more room to sign 1 more large piece somewhere if say you push around 15 million combined from the big 3 back into later years.

Eh, my favorite 4th FA is probably Kyle Fuller or Trey Burton 

Cap hits of 36, 18, 10, and 14 (Fuller) or 7 (Burton)...Somewhere between $75-78 million 

[Lupz27]

Just now, SenorGato said:

Eh, my favorite 4th FA is probably Kyle Fuller or Trey Burton 

Well adding Fuller, and Burton with Claiborne would give us CB 1, and 2, and a reliable safety check down TE with a possible higher upside to go with Jensen Cousins Bell and Watkins, and all 7 can be fit with our cap space with a tweak with structuring of the deals.

[SenorGato]

7 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

Well adding Fuller, and Burton with Claiborne would give us CB 1, and 2, and a reliable safety check down TE with a possible higher upside to go with Jensen Cousins Bell and Watkins, and all 7 can be fit with our cap space with a tweak with structuring of the deals.

Don’t need Clairborne 

Also to back track a little they can probably only sign one from that pool. I’d lean Fuller the CB. 

[Sperm Edwards]

16 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Using a word like never is ridiculous when his first 5 years besides TD’s is probably as impressive as AP’s you have no proof other then OPINION to say he can’t do this for 5 more years which would give him up to 750 receptions for his career roughly, and another 9k-11k yards on top of his already 9k yards he has so far in his career (from scrimmage), so if he hits 20k yards for his career yeah get the gold jacket ready he is a lock to be a HOFer, and probably a first ballot one at that.

Never. Let’s see him have a single season with 1600+ rushing yards, 12+ rushing TDs, and 5.3ypc before predicting multiple such seasons, and thereby comparing him with some of the most dangerous RBs ever. Not to mention the cushy team situation he’s always been in with a dangerous passing attack keeping the defense honest. 

[SenorGato]

7 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Never. Let’s see him have a single season with 1600+ rushing yards, 12+ rushing TDs, and 5.3ypc before predicting multiple such seasons, and thereby comparing him with some of the most dangerous RBs ever. Not to mention the cushy team situation he’s always been in with a dangerous passing attack keeping the defense honest. 

Bell averages 1600 yards from scrimmage at 5.2 yards a touch over his 5 years (and that’s including 12-13 games missed in 2015). Only 8 TDs THO.

Keep ignoring those passing numbers, Sperm! Don’t want to inconvenience yourself! He’s a huge part of that dangerous passing attack. 

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Bell averages 1600 yards from scrimmage at 5.2 yards a touch over his 5 years (and that’s including 12-13 games missed in 2015). Only 8 TDs THO.

Keep ignoring those passing numbers, Sperm! Don’t want to inconvenience yourself! He’s a huge part of that dangerous passing attack. 

Lol you’re literally the only person who uses total yds per touch to make his receiving ypr to make his just-ok rushing ypc look better (on a top 10 offense even in his absence). Let’s see those numbers for his contemporaries. Or is it let’s use his rushing+receiving yds per touch and compare it to others’ yds per carry only.

Talk about twisting yourself into a pretzel with strained stats to rationalize your ideas. If he was that incredible you wouldn’t have to grade him on a curve like you’re doing.

Good back. Better than anyone we have (when he’s not missing games). And he’s still simply not worth a multi-year deal at more than twice almost all other RBs.

[SenorGato]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lol you’re literally the only person who uses total yds per touch to make his receiving ypr to make his just-ok rushing ypc look better (on a top 10 offense even in his absence). Let’s see those numbers for his contemporaries. Or is it let’s use his rushing+receiving yds per touch and compare it to others’ yds per carry only.

Talk about twisting yourself into a pretzel with strained stats to rationalize your ideas. If he was that incredible you wouldn’t have to grade him on a curve like you’re doing.

Good back. Better than anyone we have (when he’s not missing games). And he’s still simply not worth a multi-year deal at more than twice almost all other RBs.

Two things Spermy:

- No rational person working without an agenda is completely ignoring Bell’s pass catching. No serious analysis of Bell is done without it except yours, because it is convenien for you and that’s how you argue.

- I hate to break it to you but total yardage divided by total carries is how they get rushing numbers. All I did was include the whole chunk of offense you chose to ignore because it is convenient for you to do so. 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

Just now, SenorGato said:

Two things Spermy:

- No rational person working without an agenda is completely ignoring Bell’s pass catching. No serious analysis of Bell is done without it except yours, because it is convenien for you and that’s how you argue.

- I hate to break it to you but total yardage divided by total carries is how they get rushing numbers. All I did was include the whole chunk of offense you chose to ignore because it is convenient for you to do so. 

 

You touted his yds per touch, to use as comparison to others’ yds per carry (the only way it compares favorably). That’s pretty ridiculous, unless you’re going to do the same for every other great back whose tier you think he’s on. 

[pdxgreen]

And I'll bet they tag him again this year.

[Lupz27]

34 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Lol you’re literally the only person who uses total yds per touch to make his receiving ypr to make his just-ok rushing ypc look better (on a top 10 offense even in his absence). Let’s see those numbers for his contemporaries. Or is it let’s use his rushing+receiving yds per touch and compare it to others’ yds per carry only.

Talk about twisting yourself into a pretzel with strained stats to rationalize your ideas. If he was that incredible you wouldn’t have to grade him on a curve like you’re doing.

Good back. Better than anyone we have (when he’s not missing games). And he’s still simply not worth a multi-year deal at more than twice almost all other RBs.

Dude he is hands down the best RB in the NFL period stop!