Analysis of Maccagnan's Draft Performance vs The Rest of The League

[Jack Straw]

So I was thinking about Mike Maccagnan's three year tenure as General Manager and wanted to see if I could get a better idea of how his draft picks have performed compared to draft picks from other teams. I wanted to conduct a simple measurement of performance, so I looked how each draft pick in the last three years performed for their respective teams, added everything up, and then compared that to Mike Maccagan's draft picks. I wanted to see how our players stacked up in the following categories: total rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. For defense, I looked at sacks and interceptions. 

The data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRmKT2Hev5JVxEiG1-R-mtEp81xVRWDR7PjLByGrSP8yBf3qiTnI7T9KPREtBvzjHAueInaTe_iGTzs/pub?output=xlsx

I focused on these stats because they're your "money-makers." If you're drafting players who are 1) moving the football 2) scoring the football 3) sacking the quarterback 4) causing turnovers -- then you're doing something right.

For this exercise, I excluded all QB's who were picked in the last three years, as they would have heavily skewed the sample and mde Maccagnan look worse than he already does. The purpose of this exercise is relatively simple: to see how Maccagnan's non-QB draft-picks performed compared to other non-QB "skill" players who were picked in the same three year period.

Jets draft picks produced the following results:

Total rushing yards: 342 (29th in the NFL)

Total Rushing TD's: 1 (27th in the NFL)

Total Receptions: 62 (last in the NFL)

Total Receiving Yards: 677 (last in the NFL) 

Total Receiving TDs: 2 (last in the NFL)

Total Interceptions: 6 (18th in the NFL)

Sacks: 31.5 (7th in the NFL)

Maccagnan has, compared to his peers, found players who are sacking the quarterback at a decent clip (with Leonard Williams accounting for nearly 40% of the production). Besides that, however, his draft picks have produced almost nothing. They're not moving the chains on the ground or in the air, they're not scoring, and his defensive draft picks aren't causing turnovers. If significant investments had been made in the offensive line over the last three years, then perhaps these stats could be skewed or defendable. However, that is not the case, as Maccagnan has invested only two low round draft picks on linemen. 

Bottom line is this: Maccagnan's draft picks aren't moving the football or producing points and they're not creating turnovers, and that's not a recipe for winning football games.

[Patriot Killa]

What position other than WR has he picked that can produce points?(No one better say QB)

is the scheme Bowles uses or the fashion he is using the picks in getting the best out of the picks? 

I mean, I’m not dismissing anything you have researched. Just all good questions to take into account.

[BrickTamland]

31 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

So I was thinking about Mike Maccagnan's three year tenure as General Manager and wanted to see if I could get a better idea of how his draft picks have performed compared to draft picks from other teams.

Bottom line is this: Maccagnan's draft picks aren't moving the football or producing points and they're not creating turnovers, and that's not a recipe for winning football games.

Thank you for putting your time into this. Of course, its not a perfect study, but its results really speak for themselves.

If only Mac reads today's thread about fixing the offense this offseason. Then we can truly start moving and scoring with draft picks. Especially my latest offseason mock in that thread. 

[SenorGato]

I am now further convinced they should skip defense altogether this offseason. Maaaaaaybe sneak in DPR and CB, but not at the cost of any premium talent on offense in either FA or the draft. 

[LIJetsFan]

Pretty shocking numbers there OP.  Geesh, that shakes my confidence in Mac.  Could all the naysayers be right and we're just a mediocre team making mediocre moves, rinsing and repeating.  Are we really a franchise with a rain cloud firmly in place over our head.  Are we the  Charlie Brown of football and will we always have Lucy playing us forever.  Good grief.

Who, me worried, nah, I'll feel much better once we sign some FA's and draft some players.    

[varjet]

11 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

Pretty shocking numbers there OP.  Geesh, that shakes my confidence in Mac.  Could all the naysayers be right and we're just a mediocre team making mediocre moves, rinsing and repeating.  Are we really a franchise with a rain cloud firmly in place over our head.  Are we the  Charlie Brown of football and will we always have Lucy playing us forever.  Good grief.

Who, me worried, nah, I'll feel much better once we sign some FA's and draft some players.    

I keep saying this over and over again- 2017 was his best year, but he has drafted terribly. 

I would rerun the numbers with Udfas if the op had the time-would include Anderson, and Thielen.  

[Sonny Werblin]

If Smith had become a #2 or even a #3 WR, the stats would look very different. Not to mention if Hack was competent enough to start a few games. The rushing stuff seems less meaningful since McGuire was the first RB he selected, and in fairness seems to be a very good late round selection.

That spreadsheet, IMO, is a reflection of two  wasted 2d round picks. Those two picks are by far the blackest marks on Macs short tenure. He will be haunted by his second round selections of Smith and Hack unless he hits on a QB this year because blowing that many high round selections is cause for termination.

[varjet]

2 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If Smith had become a #2 or even a #3 WR, the stats would look very different. Not to mention if Hack was competent enough to start a few games. The rushing stuff seems less meaningful since McGuire was the first RB he selected, and in fairness seems to be a very good late round selection.

That spreadsheet, IMO, is a reflection of two  wasted 2d round picks. Those two picks are by far the blackest marks on Macs short tenure. He will be haunted by his second round selections of Smith and Hack unless he hits on a QB this year because blowing that many high round selections is cause for termination.

Two of his third round picks are not doing better either.  Mauldin should have been David Johnson, and Stewart should have been Elflein.  We are not getting Billy Price unless we trade into the end of the 1st round.  

[Philc1]

Mike Macagnan sux at drafting

[Philc1]

7 minutes ago, varjet said:

Two of his third round picks are not doing better either.  Mauldin should have been David Johnson, and Stewart should have been Elflein.  We are not getting Billy Price unless we trade into the end of the 1st round.  

Everyone hates on Hackenberg and rightfully so but what about these other duds?  Maudlin and Jenkins.  Neither loser can sniff the qb and that’s their job

[Philc1]

15 minutes ago, varjet said:

I keep saying this over and over again- 2017 was his best year, but he has drafted terribly. 

I would rerun the numbers with Udfas if the op had the time-would include Anderson, and Thielen.  

His best draft had two mediocre Safeties in round 1 and round 2.  Haven’t seen anything from any of the other players except McGuire who is a decent part-time running back

 

And now people are psyched about Macagnan drafting our qb of the future?

 

[FidelioJet]

Thanks for doing this...

What if you put in total tackles.  My guess is that would tell a pretty good story.

The fact is - as has been discussed here A LOT - Mac has not drafted impact position - he's been building up the middle establishing a core.

At least I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt - this is a big year for him as far as I'm concerned. 

[UnitedWhofans]

I would add a couple of stats for the defensive side.

tackles for loss and passes broken up

[Philc1]

1 minute ago, UnitedWhofans said:

I would add a couple of stats for the defensive side.

tackles for loss and passes broken up

How about wins and losses for your boy?  We are 10-23 since week 17 2015 and his last 3 drafts

[TuscanyTile2]

6 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

Bottom line is this: Maccagnan's draft picks aren't moving the football or producing points and they're not creating turnovers, and that's not a recipe for winning football games.

I'm just waiting for SenorGato to say "the era of drafting good players as a recipe for winning football games is coming to an end"

[MDL_JET]

39 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If Smith had become a #2 or even a #3 WR, the stats would look very different. Not to mention if Hack was competent enough to start a few games. The rushing stuff seems less meaningful since McGuire was the first RB he selected, and in fairness seems to be a very good late round selection.

That spreadsheet, IMO, is a reflection of two  wasted 2d round picks. Those two picks are by far the blackest marks on Macs short tenure. He will be haunted by his second round selections of Smith and Hack unless he hits on a QB this year because blowing that many high round selections is cause for termination.

He basically made up missing on Smith with Anderson. Same way Vikings did with Treadwell and Thielen. 

Don’t see how that can “haunt” him. These aren’t top 5 picks he’s missing in. 

[Warfish]

2 hours ago, SenorGato said:

I am now further convinced they should skip defense altogether this offseason. 

What do you think the real world odds are of Bowles (and Macc, who seems the weaker of the two here) going sans Defense?

We'll be lucky if our first three picks are not ALL Defense.

I'm all but convinced that is the CB Fitzpatrick is available at pick #6, he's a near-lock to be a Jet.

[UnitedWhofans]

40 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

How about wins and losses for your boy?  We are 10-23 since week 17 2015 and his last 3 drafts

He aint my boy. 

[UnitedWhofans]

Again given profootballreference's approximate value statistic, his first draft was awful.

His drafts have gotten progressively better in terms of this stat.

It would be interesting to see how this stat racks up with the other teams. I should look into that.

[Sonny Werblin]

1 hour ago, Philc1 said:

Everyone hates on Hackenberg and rightfully so but what about these other duds?  Maudlin and Jenkins.  Neither loser can sniff the qb and that’s their job

Bottom line is that you build your NFL team by hitting on the picks in the first two rounds with great frequency most every year. The rest is gravy. The Steelers are always viewed as a team that perpetually builds thought the draft. Of the 22 Steeler starters: 8 are first round picks ; 5 are second round picks ; 5 were taken after Round 2;  2 are undrafted free agents; and 2 are free agents from other teams. 

Regardless of who was named Jets' GM after Idzik, the new GM was inheriting a sh*thole of starting quality talent because Tanny and Idzik had 7 successive drafts from 2008 through 2014 where these guys were selected in the first and second rounds: Vernon Gholston (Round 1/Pick 6); Dustin Keller (1/30); Mark Sanchez (1/5); Kyle Wilson (1/29);  Vlad Ducasse (2/61); Muhammad Wilkerson (1/30); Quinton Coples (1/16); Stephen Hill (2/43); Dee Milner (1/9); Sheldon Richardson (1/13); Geno Smith (2/39); Calvin Pryor (1/18); Jace Amaro (2/49).

How many were busts? 8 out of 13 would be a kind assessment. So, at least 61% of the players Tanny and Idzik picked in the first two rounds from 2008 through 2014 were busts. My God!

While I do not believe that Mac is a great GM, I do "believe" he is competent and, like most of us, will get better at his job through experience (i.e. learning from mistakes). Plus, there are no Ron Wolfs or Bill Polians waiting with baited breath to take the Jets GM job. This is because people in the business of the NFL know that the Jets have the least overall talent on their roster of any team in the entire NFL and it will take years to remedy it. So, I'm content with Mac so long as he does not screw up the QB selection this year. If he does screw it up, then my "belief" that he is competent will have been incorrect. 

 

[Sperm Edwards]

18 minutes ago, Sonny Werblin said:

Bottom line is that you build your NFL team by hitting on the picks in the first two rounds with great frequency most every year. The rest is gravy. The Steelers are always viewed as a team that perpetually builds thought the draft. Of the 22 Steeler starters: 8 are first round picks ; 5 are second round picks ; 5 were taken after Round 2;  2 are undrafted free agents; and 2 are free agents from other teams. 

Regardless of who was named Jets' GM after Idzik, the new GM was inheriting a sh*thole of starting quality talent because Tanny and Idzik had 7 successive drafts from 2008 through 2014 where these guys were selected in the first and second rounds: Vernon Gholston (Round 1/Pick 6); Dustin Keller (1/30); Mark Sanchez (1/5); Kyle Wilson (1/29);  Vlad Ducasse (2/61); Muhammad Wilkerson (1/30); Quinton Coples (1/16); Stephen Hill (2/43); Dee Milner (1/9); Sheldon Richardson (1/13); Geno Smith (2/39); Calvin Pryor (1/18); Jace Amaro (2/49).

How many were busts? 8 out of 13 would be a kind assessment. So, at least 61% of the players Tanny and Idzik picked in the first two rounds from 2008 through 2014 were busts. My God!

While I do not believe that Mac is a great GM, I do "believe" he is competent and, like most of us, will get better at his job through experience (i.e. learning from mistakes). Plus, there are no Ron Wolfs or Bill Polians waiting with baited breath to take the Jets GM job. This is because people in the business of the NFL know that the Jets have the least overall talent on their roster of any team in the entire NFL and it will take years to remedy it. So, I'm content with Mac so long as he does not screw up the QB selection this year. If he does screw it up, then my "belief" that he is competent will have been incorrect. 

 

Saying he's competent, by comparing his drafts to Idzik's, is like claiming it's warm outside because it isn't 10 degrees below zero.

[dbatesman]

7 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

So I was thinking about Mike Maccagnan's three year tenure as General Manager and wanted to see if I could get a better idea of how his draft picks have performed compared to draft picks from other teams. I wanted to conduct a simple measurement of performance, so I looked how each draft pick in the last three years performed for their respective teams, added everything up, and then compared that to Mike Maccagan's draft picks. I wanted to see how our players stacked up in the following categories: total rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. For defense, I looked at sacks and interceptions. 

The data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRmKT2Hev5JVxEiG1-R-mtEp81xVRWDR7PjLByGrSP8yBf3qiTnI7T9KPREtBvzjHAueInaTe_iGTzs/pub?output=xlsx

I focused on these stats because they're your "money-makers." If you're drafting players who are 1) moving the football 2) scoring the football 3) sacking the quarterback 4) causing turnovers -- then you're doing something right.

For this exercise, I excluded all QB's who were picked in the last three years, as they would have heavily skewed the sample and mde Maccagnan look worse than he already does. The purpose of this exercise is relatively simple: to see how Maccagnan's non-QB draft-picks performed compared to other non-QB "skill" players who were picked in the same three year period.

Jets draft picks produced the following results:

Total rushing yards: 342 (29th in the NFL)

Total Rushing TD's: 1 (27th in the NFL)

Total Receptions: 62 (last in the NFL)

Total Receiving Yards: 677 (last in the NFL) 

Total Receiving TDs: 2 (last in the NFL)

Total Interceptions: 6 (18th in the NFL)

Sacks: 31.5 (7th in the NFL)

Maccagnan has, compared to his peers, found players who are sacking the quarterback at a decent clip (with Leonard Williams accounting for nearly 40% of the production). Besides that, however, his draft picks have produced almost nothing. They're not moving the chains on the ground or in the air, they're not scoring, and his defensive draft picks aren't causing turnovers. If significant investments had been made in the offensive line over the last three years, then perhaps these stats could be skewed or defendable. However, that is not the case, as Maccagnan has invested only two low round draft picks on linemen. 

Bottom line is this: Maccagnan's draft picks aren't moving the football or producing points and they're not creating turnovers, and that's not a recipe for winning football games.

POTY. Maccganan’s a total idiot and the franchise is going nowhere until he gets fired.

[jetrider]

Another predictable anti-Macc moronfest that leaves coaching completely out of the equation for judging picks the HC wanted.

 

 

[T0mShane]

7 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

So I was thinking about Mike Maccagnan's three year tenure as General Manager and wanted to see if I could get a better idea of how his draft picks have performed compared to draft picks from other teams. I wanted to conduct a simple measurement of performance, so I looked how each draft pick in the last three years performed for their respective teams, added everything up, and then compared that to Mike Maccagan's draft picks. I wanted to see how our players stacked up in the following categories: total rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. For defense, I looked at sacks and interceptions. 

The data is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRmKT2Hev5JVxEiG1-R-mtEp81xVRWDR7PjLByGrSP8yBf3qiTnI7T9KPREtBvzjHAueInaTe_iGTzs/pub?output=xlsx

I focused on these stats because they're your "money-makers." If you're drafting players who are 1) moving the football 2) scoring the football 3) sacking the quarterback 4) causing turnovers -- then you're doing something right.

For this exercise, I excluded all QB's who were picked in the last three years, as they would have heavily skewed the sample and mde Maccagnan look worse than he already does. The purpose of this exercise is relatively simple: to see how Maccagnan's non-QB draft-picks performed compared to other non-QB "skill" players who were picked in the same three year period.

Jets draft picks produced the following results:

Total rushing yards: 342 (29th in the NFL)

Total Rushing TD's: 1 (27th in the NFL)

Total Receptions: 62 (last in the NFL)

Total Receiving Yards: 677 (last in the NFL) 

Total Receiving TDs: 2 (last in the NFL)

Total Interceptions: 6 (18th in the NFL)

Sacks: 31.5 (7th in the NFL)

Maccagnan has, compared to his peers, found players who are sacking the quarterback at a decent clip (with Leonard Williams accounting for nearly 40% of the production). Besides that, however, his draft picks have produced almost nothing. They're not moving the chains on the ground or in the air, they're not scoring, and his defensive draft picks aren't causing turnovers. If significant investments had been made in the offensive line over the last three years, then perhaps these stats could be skewed or defendable. However, that is not the case, as Maccagnan has invested only two low round draft picks on linemen. 

Bottom line is this: Maccagnan's draft picks aren't moving the football or producing points and they're not creating turnovers, and that's not a recipe for winning football games.

Great work on this. 

[Bugg]

2 hours ago, Sonny Werblin said:

If Smith had become a #2 or even a #3 WR, the stats would look very different. Not to mention if Hack was competent enough to start a few games. The rushing stuff seems less meaningful since McGuire was the first RB he selected, and in fairness seems to be a very good late round selection.

That spreadsheet, IMO, is a reflection of two  wasted 2d round picks. Those two picks are by far the blackest marks on Macs short tenure. He will be haunted by his second round selections of Smith and Hack unless he hits on a QB this year because blowing that many high round selections is cause for termination.

But he didn't. Law of averages means things regress to the middle. And over 3 years, Mac's picks didn't even do that. And you don't extra points for picking Hackenberg and him not playing. 

This could be the single most rose-colored glasses post we have had here in a while. with math with a 3 year sample, demonstrated IT'S A DISASTER. Spent 3 drafts pretending the offense, especially QB and OL are not priorities.  Oh, but let's change a variable or 2 to pretend it's not. W T F are you talking about? 

 

SAFETIES, MAN!

[varjet]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

What do you think the real world odds are of Bowles (and Macc, who seems the weaker of the two here) going sans Defense?

We'll be lucky if our first three picks are not ALL Defense.

I'm all but convinced that is the CB Fitzpatrick is available at pick #6, he's a near-lock to be a Jet.

If Fitzpatrick is a corner who can play as well as Lattimore did this year (I know MF played SS this past season), he would be a good pick at 6, if there are no potential FQBs available.

But we know how the QBs are going to roll.  Many of us are dubious that the QBs and Mac are a fit at 6.  

[The Crusher]

I see no numbers on leadership.

[Bugg]

8 minutes ago, jetrider said:

Another predictable anti-Macc moronfest that leaves coaching completely out of the equation for judging picks the HC wanted.

 

 

Think you are mostly wrong. But fair to note the organizational structure doesn't help things. This is not a unified franchise. In a sane place, the GM and coach are on the same page, or there is a club president to make them get on the same page. Not here. 

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, The Crusher said:

I see no numbers on leadership.

Or effort. Definitely need to add a tab for effort. 

[jetrider]

1 minute ago, Bugg said:

Think you are mostly wrong. But fair to note the organizational structure doesn't help things. This is not a unified franchise. In a sane place, the GM and coach are on the same page, or there is a club president to make them get on the same page. Not here. 

You are mostly wrong; they are on the same page on the same rung unlike other teams where the GM has leverage and hires the HC.

[Beerfish]

The following is a tangent and is not on MacCagnan but is relevant re the draft none the less.

Since the Jets took DBrick and Mangold in 2006 the Jets have used one 2nd rounder (Ducasse) and one 3rd rounder (Winters) on the oline, all the rest of the oline picks have been in the 2nd part of the draft, hopes and wishes and dreams.

Dear NY Jets, QUIT NEGLECTING THE OFFENSIVE LINE!

[Bugg]

Just now, jetrider said:

You are mostly wrong; they are on the same page on the same rung unlike other teams where the GM has leverage and hires the HC.

Same page; do you think Maccagnan is totally cool with a team 5-11 2 years running who's HC could not find a few game snaps for his 2nd round draft pick QB? What ever you think of Hackenberg, there were several points he could have gotten in, and Bowles did not do so. For a GM  that's embarrassing. 

[Jack Straw]

7 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

What position other than WR has he picked that can produce points?(No one better say QB)

is the scheme Bowles uses or the fashion he is using the picks in getting the best out of the picks? 

I mean, I’m not dismissing anything you have researched. Just all good questions to take into account.

Those are actually questions I considered and may answer if I find the time. We've actually made six selections in three years (not including QB), on positions with a focus on scoring the football (WR, TE, RB). Those six players, on average, were drafted in the early 4th round, and have combined for 1,019 total yards (rushing + receiving) and 3 TDs. 

For some context, Ju-Ju Smith Schuster had 917 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie year. For all intents and purposes, JuJu has produced 2.5x the amount of touchdowns and basically the same number of total yards in one season, as a rookie, than our last six players have produced in a total of nine seasons. (Elijah McGuire, Hansen, Stewart, Leggert each have 1 season, Peake 2, Smith 3).

That is pretty awful. And it's not like Ju-Ju was a top 5 pick...he went at the bottom of round 2 at 62nd overall. In fact, when digging a bit further, I found that there were more than 20 rookies from just this year who have all produced as many or more touchdowns than the Jets have produced from six players in nine seasons worth of "production."

That is just horrendous.

[Bugg]

2 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The following is a tangent and is not on MacCagnan but is relevant re the draft none the less.

Since the Jets took DBrick and Mangold in 2006 the Jets have used one 2nd rounder (Ducasse) and one 3rd rounder (Winters) on the oline, all the rest of the oline picks have been in the 2nd part of the draft, hopes and wishes and dreams.

Dear NY Jets, QUIT NEGLECTING THE OFFENSIVE LINE!

You have to puck safeties, LBs, corners and DL guys. Scoring points is overrated. 

Cracks me up that Bowles in each year has had run heavy offenses. Yet unlike pretty much from Parcells until DBrick and Mangold's retirement, the OL has been a strength of the Jets because it was drafted and free agents like Faneca, Szott, Elliott and Colon were signed. Now all the resources go to the defense. You are not going to succeed if your OL sucks, not running, not passing. 

[varjet]

7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

The following is a tangent and is not on MacCagnan but is relevant re the draft none the less.

Since the Jets took DBrick and Mangold in 2006 the Jets have used one 2nd rounder (Ducasse) and one 3rd rounder (Winters) on the oline, all the rest of the oline picks have been in the 2nd part of the draft, hopes and wishes and dreams.

Dear NY Jets, QUIT NEGLECTING THE OFFENSIVE LINE!

Maybe Bowles is on top of this, but Mac has historically tried to find OL to develop in lower rounds (including with Texans), and he rolled out an OL light/short-passing offense in 2016-2017.

That is almost exactly the opposite direction where the league is going.  Bortles and the Jaguars are going to the AFCCG because they have a great line, they can run the ball, and they can throw deep.  The Seahawks just hired Brian Shottenheimer.

Mac's OL decision last year were to pay Wes Johnson over 2mm, Ijalana over 4 mm to not play, pay Beachum alot of guaranteed money to not run block, and extend Brian Winters for alot of money (who also can't run block).  Even Shell for all of his size is not a great runblocker.  Beachum came from the Jaguars, and it is possible that Coughlin would not have repeated any of these moves.

The Jets are lost.