Jets QB Draft History (I.e. the Pick One in the First Round Thread)

[Warfish]

Let me start by saying I am well aware of the old disclaimer:  Past performance is no indication of future performance.

I get that. 

With that said, let's look at the history of Jets drafting QB's int he first round vs. QB's in the second round.

I.e. The Jets should simply never, ever, pick a QB in the 2nd Round. 

It never, ever, works for us, if history is an indication:

Christian Hackenberg, 2016 2nd Round Pick - Has not taken an NFL Snap.
Geno Smith, 2013 2nd Round Pick - 3 Year starter (2013-2015), never had a winning record, best of this group
Kellen Clemens, 2006 2nd Round Pick - Career backup.
Browning Nagle, 1991 2nd Round Pick - 1 Year starter (1992), bust.
Al Woodall, 1969 2nd Round Pick - Career backup.
John Huarte, 1965 2nd Round Pick

Not a single decent player in the lot tbqh.  Geno is perhaps the "best", but he was and is not very good and like Clemens before him appears headed to a career backup role after repeated failures at #1 QB.

While we haven't drafted THAT many QB's in the first round, our luck has been materially better:

Sandy Stephens, 1962 1st Round PIck (#5 Overall) 
Joe Namath HOF , 1965 1st Round Pick (#1 Overall) - 2 Playoffs in 12 Years (65-76), Jets ONLY Super Bowl title, Team Leader in pretty much every QB stat.
Richard Todd, 1976 1st Round Pick (#6 Overall) - 2 Playoffs in 8 Years (76-83), 1 AFCCG, 20K+ Career Yards Passing
Ken O'Brien, 1983 1st Round Pick (#24 Overall) - 3 Playoffs in 9 Years (84-92), #2 (or #1) in Jets career QB Stats
Chad Pennington, 2000 1st Round Pick (#18 Overall) - 3 Playoffs in 8 Years (2000-2007), 1 AFCCG, despite a horrific record of arm injuries.
Mark Sanchez, 2009 1st Round Pick (#5 Overall) - 2 Playoffs in 4 years (2009-2012), 2 AFCCG's, and we all know how/why it ended (Thanks Rex).

Of our 1st Round Picks, we have 1 HOF'er (Namath) and four "solid enough to have started for 5+ years" QB's in Todd, O'Brian, Pennington and Sanchez.  All made the post-season multiple times.

Just look at these two respective lists.  No matter how you feel about those 1st rounders, there is no competition between them and those horrific 2nd Rounders.

As for QB's drafted after the 2nd, the list is....sad.

Jeff Blake, 1992 6th Round Pick - Solid on again/off again journeyman starter/backup career.  13 year NFL career, only his first with the Jets (1992). Should have been Jets #1 QB between the the O'Brian (92) and Pennington (2000) Eras tbqh.
Pat Ryan, 1978 11th Round Pick - 12 years with the Jets mostly as a Backup/Fill In.

Beyond that, not a whole lot worth even mentioning.

So sure, history does not define the future.....BUT it appears rather clear that the Jets do a hell of a lot better, longer, when we go QB in the first round.  2nd Rounders never work for us.  Later round picks are a barren wasteland of nothing.  But of our 5 first rounders since Namath, all five made the playoffs multiple times, all 5 started for 4 or more seasons (the average is much higher).  They are all amongst the franchises leaders in QB performance (Sad as that history may in fact be).  

So if we draft QB.....go first round.  The odds, the history, show that to be the best route.  If history is any kind of indicator, a QB picked after the first round is, for us, a wasted pick that could have been better spent elsewhere.

[JustInFudge]

Hard to really comment on this because it covers different eras, regimes and coaches. 

I don't think you're going to get much push back here though. The data is out there, the odds of finding a franchise QB out of the 1st round drop drastically the further down the draft you go.

The real question which has been beaten to death is, do you trust Mac taking a QB in the 1st?  I sure as hell don't. 

[chirorob]

To be honest, the Jets should just not draft in the second round.

You had to go back to 07 to find a decent second round pick before Maye. Lamont Jordan in 01 was a good backup, and in 99 Randy Thomas.   (those 3 years were the Golden age of 2nd rounders).

In 1989, D Byrd was off to a great start before..   Really, until the early 80s there was nothing.  

So, in the past 30 years of second rounders we got a guard who we let go, a backup running back, maybe a safety, and a D Tackle who suffered the worst thing in the history of NYJ football.

[Warfish]

No wonder folks post draft stuff to the main forum, I really expected more replies to this.

And no Jif, I don't trust Macc, but he's the GM, and we're at #6 and this is a QB-heavy draft class, so....

And lol, chirorob, you're not wrong.  The 2nd is our black hole of failure.  As pot we should be getting solid multi-year performers/role fillers, we get near on nothing but busts. 

[Sonny Werblin]

Totally agree with the OP. It is more than a total crapshoot selecting a QB after the first round. In fact, I would never draft a QB other than one when I have a pick in the top half of round 1. Why bother, the odds are so stacked against him being any good. I really see selecting any QB after the first round as a wasted draft pick. He's never going to be a good starter and the chance he will be a back-up QB is not worth the value of the draft pick.

[Pennington]

This is exactly why I am willing to do whatever necessary to land one of Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield.