prospect porn: lamar jackson

[cant wait]

 

I think this guy is going undervalued right now but I expect things to change after the combine- the guy is absolutely electric and a more advanced passer then he's getting credit for, showing nice improvement coming off his heisman season despite louisville losing 7 seniors. yes ideally you'd like to see the comp % be a tick higher but PFF ranks him in the middle of the pack once you factor in drops etc. 

jackson vs. allen: pocket presence breakdown - thoughtful film analysis by matt waldman

 

PFF adjusted completion % (I believe this only adjusts for drops/catchable passes)

 

 

 

[redlichtie]

7 hours ago, cant wait said:

 

I think this guy is going undervalued right now but I expect things to change after the combine- the guy is absolutely electric and a more advanced passer then he's getting credit for, showing nice improvement coming off his heisman season despite louisville losing 7 seniors. yes ideally you'd like to see the comp % be a tick higher but PFF ranks him in the middle of the pack once you factor in drops etc. 

jackson vs. allen: pocket presence breakdown - thoughtful film analysis by matt waldman

 

PFF adjusted completion % (I believe this only adjusts for drops/catchable passes)

 

 

 

Good post, Not sure if he’s the guy for us as i think he will need some time and the right OC but my god he has insane talent. Arm is off the scale good, running ability makes Michael Vick look like a plodder. Vick was a 54% passer in college who never got beyond 1800 yards passing or 12 TD’s and he went Number 1 overall. I know that was a few years ago but he was recent enough to still be relevant.. I think Jackson is way more polished a passer at this stage and a better runner. The question is how does he digest pre and post snap and is he a leader. And can he be a pass first QB so as to limit the likelihood of injuries.

Bottom line if Tyrod Taylor is a starting QB in the NFL I can’t see why Lamar Jackson isn’t at least as good...eventually

[BrickTamland]

34 minutes ago, redlichtie said:

Bottom line if Tyrod Taylor is a starting QB in the NFL I can’t see why Lamar Jackson isn’t at least as good...eventually

Isnt this the problem?

Is it a legitimate use of high 1st rounder (or any 1st rounder) to draft a guy who draws a comparison to Taylor (and perhaps wont even be as good for a couple years)? Even if we take into account how much better a runner Lackson is than Taylor, i think the answer is clearly no.

We can just have Taylor now if we want and it wont cost us a ton.

 

[Lupz27]

1 hour ago, BrickTamland said:

Isnt this the problem?

Is it a legitimate use of high 1st rounder (or any 1st rounder) to draft a guy who draws a comparison to Taylor (and perhaps wont even be as good for a couple years)? Even if we take into account how much better a runner Lackson is than Taylor, i think the answer is clearly no.

We can just have Taylor now if we want and it wont cost us a ton.

 

Tyrod Taylor is not a good comparison to Jackson, only guy comparable ever is Mike Vick.

[Lupz27]

9 hours ago, cant wait said:

 

I think this guy is going undervalued right now but I expect things to change after the combine- the guy is absolutely electric and a more advanced passer then he's getting credit for, showing nice improvement coming off his heisman season despite louisville losing 7 seniors. yes ideally you'd like to see the comp % be a tick higher but PFF ranks him in the middle of the pack once you factor in drops etc. 

jackson vs. allen: pocket presence breakdown - thoughtful film analysis by matt waldman

 

PFF adjusted completion % (I believe this only adjusts for drops/catchable passes)

 

 

 

Lamar Jackson, Lev Bell, Sonny Michel, and Sammy Watkins would transform this offense if designed properly around these 4 stengths would be something that would have Jets fans drooling, and lining up at the gate for tickets.

[Lith]

4 hours ago, redlichtie said:

Good post, Not sure if he’s the guy for us as i think he will need some time and the right OC but my god he has insane talent. Arm is off the scale good, running ability makes Michael Vick look like a plodder. Vick was a 54% passer in college who never got beyond 1800 yards passing or 12 TD’s and he went Number 1 overall. I know that was a few years ago but he was recent enough to still be relevant.. I think Jackson is way more polished a passer at this stage and a better runner. The question is how does he digest pre and post snap and is he a leader. And can he be a pass first QB so as to limit the likelihood of injuries.

Bottom line if Tyrod Taylor is a starting QB in the NFL I can’t see why Lamar Jackson isn’t at least as good...eventually

Agreed.  He may have the best upside of anyone in the draft, but his tape is frustrating because he is so inconsistent.  He will move around, avoid the rush and drop a dime 50 yards downfield, hitting his receiver in stride, but then follow it up with 2 bad misses on easy throws.  Usually has to do with sloppy footwork when he misses.  His numbers are also not as good as they could be because he seems to have several drops each game.  Tremendous athlete, dangerous with the ball in his hands, too much of a run first mentality, but with the proper coaching, he could be a special player, but there is also the potential to bust.  Classic boom or bust prospect.

[redlichtie]

9 hours ago, BrickTamland said:

Isnt this the problem?

Is it a legitimate use of high 1st rounder (or any 1st rounder) to draft a guy who draws a comparison to Taylor (and perhaps wont even be as good for a couple years)? Even if we take into account how much better a runner Lackson is than Taylor, i think the answer is clearly no.

We can just have Taylor now if we want and it wont cost us a ton.

 

I refer you to the bit where I said I’m ‘not sure he’s the guy for us’ 

‘that said I’m talking about his floor, at worst he’s Tyrod Taylor Or Michael Vick but his ceiling is significantly greater IMO

[redlichtie]

5 hours ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  He may have the best upside of anyone in the draft, but his tape is frustrating because he is so inconsistent.  He will move around, avoid the rush and drop a dime 50 yards downfield, hitting his receiver in stride, but then follow it up with 2 bad misses on easy throws.  Usually has to do with sloppy footwork when he misses.  His numbers are also not as good as they could be because he seems to have several drops each game.  Tremendous athlete, dangerous with the ball in his hands, too much of a run first mentality, but with the proper coaching, he could be a special player, but there is also the potential to bust.  Classic boom or bust prospect.

Yep agree by and large, I’m still not sure a guy with that talent will be a total bust as in out of the league Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell style. If anything he may suffer from the wrong team drafting him and not knowing how to maximise his skill set and be cautious with the possible downsides to his game. In many ways this put paid to RG3. If the right team/coach get hold of him I think he can be MVP special. But i’ve Said elsewhere I think his floor is Tyrod Taylor

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Tyrod Taylor is not a good comparison to Jackson, only guy comparable ever is Mike Vick.

And a young Vick would have been the best qb we ever had the past 45 years

[Philc1]

8 hours ago, Lupz27 said:

Lamar Jackson, Lev Bell, Sonny Michel, and Sammy Watkins would transform this offense if designed properly around these 4 stengths would be something that would have Jets fans drooling, and lining up at the gate for tickets.

Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 6 please

[BrickTamland]

Just now, Philc1 said:

Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 6 please

?

[redlichtie]

2 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 6 please

I’m in the minority, maybe for good reason, but I think come draft time this will not seem such  a crazy scenario particularly where Rudolph is concerned

[Philc1]

2 hours ago, redlichtie said:

I’m in the minority, maybe for good reason, but I think come draft time this will not seem such  a crazy scenario particularly where Rudolph is concerned

I can’t believe how much people are sleeping on Rudolph he has Joe Flacco written all over him

[Paradis]

And I can't believe anyone would mentioned Rudolph's name in round 1... but what do i know. 

 

Anyway, fantastic spotlight on Jackson here. There's all this "could, maybe, what if" with him... And I agree. I may not all come together as wonderfully as we'd all hope - but can anyone see Jackson sucking? I can't.

[redlichtie]

19 hours ago, Lith said:

Agreed.  He may have the best upside of anyone in the draft, but his tape is frustrating because he is so inconsistent.  He will move around, avoid the rush and drop a dime 50 yards downfield, hitting his receiver in stride, but then follow it up with 2 bad misses on easy throws.  Usually has to do with sloppy footwork when he misses.  His numbers are also not as good as they could be because he seems to have several drops each game.  Tremendous athlete, dangerous with the ball in his hands, too much of a run first mentality, but with the proper coaching, he could be a special player, but there is also the potential to bust.  Classic boom or bust prospect.

Btw you mention the drops, He definitely got victimised by that a lot this past year, I know his bowl game was a shocker but prior to that he only had 6 INTS on the year and at least 3 of those were on deflected balls that were WR mistakes, balls that should’ve been caught that ended up as INTS. But for those he’d have gone into the bowl game with only 3 INTS in more than 400 attempts

[sourceworx]

I'll be honest, Jackson is my favorite QB in this draft. I'm not as sold on the top two as others are, and Mayfield and Allen both scare the hell out of me.  

I would go nuts if we took him at #6. Absolutely nuts.

I'm with @Lupz27. Sign Bell and draft Jackson. Combine those two with the speed we have at WR, and this offense can be dangerous.

[HessStation]

On 1/18/2018 at 3:59 AM, Lupz27 said:

Lamar Jackson, Lev Bell, Sonny Michel, and Sammy Watkins would transform this offense if designed properly around these 4 stengths would be something that would have Jets fans drooling, and lining up at the gate for tickets.

You know in a weird way, I could see this if nothing else exciting. take out Bell, and add Norwell (cut carpenter) for the same money you'd give Bell and then sign Jensen. Get Andrews at TE and lucky with a RT in the 2nd round, if everyone could stay healthy....that'd be exciting. And the offense would be very young too. Beachum would be like the only guy over 26.

[BCJet]

5 minutes ago, HessStation said:

You know in a weird way, I could see this if nothing else exciting. take out Bell, and add Norwell (cut carpenter) for the same money you'd give Bell and then sign Jensen. Get Andrews at TE and lucky with a RT in the 2nd round, if everyone could stay healthy....that'd be exciting. And the offense would be very young too. Beachum would be like the only guy over 26.

Why would we cut carpenter and why would we use a 2nd round pick on a RT?  

Our offensive line underachieved this year for 2 reasons.  

1.  Wes Johnson proved to be a replacement level caliber and not strong enough to be a good run blocker.  He needs to be replaced and can be very easily.

2.  Winters played with a core injury all year, adding to the already ineffective interior blocking (see wes johnson).

Put Ryan Jensen next to a healthy winters and you have a much improved offensive line.  Brandon Shell isnt Tony Boselli, but he is a good player when not playing next to a hurt RG.

[HessStation]

QB Jackson

RB Michel, McGuire

WR Watkins, Enunwa, Robinson, Kearse, Hansen, Stewart

TE Andrews, Tomlinson, Sterling (sign)

LT Beachum

LG Norwell

OC Jensen

RG Winters

RT edit: 3rd round pick (Orlando Brown?)/Shell

[HessStation]

Just now, BCJet said:

Why would we cut carpenter and why would we use a 2nd round pick on a RT?  

Our offensive line underachieved this year for 2 reasons.  

1.  Wes Johnson proved to be a replacement level caliber and not strong enough to be a good run blocker.  He needs to be replaced and can be very easily.

2.  Winters played with a core injury all year, adding to the already ineffective interior blocking (see wes johnson).

Put Ryan Jensen next to a healthy winters and you have a much improved offensive line.  Brandon Shell isnt Tony Boselli, but he is a good player when not playing next to a hurt RG.

James Carpenter is horrible and needs to be upgraded. I'm trying to foresee a top offense. You want to keep Shell at RT bc he'll continue to develop, meh but fine...but Carpenter is garbage. Just putting Jensen at center doesn't cut it.

[HessStation]

24 minutes ago, BCJet said:

Why would we cut carpenter and why would we use a 2nd round pick on a RT?  

Our offensive line underachieved this year for 2 reasons.  

1.  Wes Johnson proved to be a replacement level caliber and not strong enough to be a good run blocker.  He needs to be replaced and can be very easily.

2.  Winters played with a core injury all year, adding to the already ineffective interior blocking (see wes johnson).

Put Ryan Jensen next to a healthy winters and you have a much improved offensive line.  Brandon Shell isnt Tony Boselli, but he is a good player when not playing next to a hurt RG.

But you're also right I forgot Michel and Andrews in the second in this scenario. So either RT in 3rd or Shell

[Lupz27]

3 hours ago, HessStation said:

You know in a weird way, I could see this if nothing else exciting. take out Bell, and add Norwell (cut carpenter) for the same money you'd give Bell and then sign Jensen. Get Andrews at TE and lucky with a RT in the 2nd round, if everyone could stay healthy....that'd be exciting. And the offense would be very young too. Beachum would be like the only guy over 26.

I actually revived my offseason plan to include both Jensen and Norwell, and gamble on Eifert with an incentive laden contract that you would be more then happy to pay out if he hit all the incentives, and grabbing Dante Pettis in late 2nd early 3rd for punt return and kick returner, plus a few special packages on offense to get him involved with his explosiveness, and adding that to Lamar Jackson, Lev Bell, Sonny Michel, Sammy Watkins, or Allen Robinson, Robbie Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Q Enunwa, and maybe one of the 2 WR’s we drafted last year develop if not no big deal we have a ton of options right there already, and I also FACK Todd Bowles, and giving him ANY MORE high priced FA assets, or top 3 round draft assets on D, he got enough poured into his defense make it work your a supposed d guru with a great scheme you have more then enough to make it work if not don’t let the door hit you on the way out, it won’t because he will throw K Rogers under the bus, or in this instance in front of the door to make sure he doesn’t take the hit from the door lol.

But damn Jackson, Bell, Michel Watkins Anderson D Pettis a healthy Q and a healthy Eifert would be beyond ridiculously exciting with Norwell and Jensen added to the Oline to help make it work.  I guy can dream lol.

[HessStation]

47 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

I actually revived my offseason plan to include both Jensen and Norwell, and gamble on Eifert with an incentive laden contract that you would be more then happy to pay out if he hit all the incentives, and grabbing Dante Pettis in late 2nd early 3rd for punt return and kick returner, plus a few special packages on offense to get him involved with his explosiveness, and adding that to Lamar Jackson, Lev Bell, Sonny Michel, Sammy Watkins, or Allen Robinson, Robbie Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Q Enunwa, and maybe one of the 2 WR’s we drafted last year develop if not no big deal we have a ton of options right there already, and I also FACK Todd Bowles, and giving him ANY MORE high priced FA assets, or top 3 round draft assets on D, he got enough poured into his defense make it work your a supposed d guru with a great scheme you have more then enough to make it work if not don’t let the door hit you on the way out, it won’t because he will throw K Rogers under the bus, or in this instance in front of the door to make sure he doesn’t take the hit from the door lol.

But damn Jackson, Bell, Michel Watkins Anderson D Pettis a healthy Q and a healthy Eifert would be beyond ridiculously exciting with Norwell and Jensen added to the Oline to help make it work.  I guy can dream lol.

I keep forgetting about Enunwa

i would just say, remember Norwell and Bell are gonna cost about the same per, add Jensen, you're already around $40MM... no idea what Watkins or Robinson go for but there will be teams lined up to over pay for both I think. I'm liking the thought of all this though.

im thinking I could get into the Jackson pick more than Mayfield at this point.

[SenorGato]

6 hours ago, BCJet said:

Why would we cut carpenter and why would we use a 2nd round pick on a RT?  

Our offensive line underachieved this year for 2 reasons.  

1.  Wes Johnson proved to be a replacement level caliber and not strong enough to be a good run blocker.  He needs to be replaced and can be very easily.

2.  Winters played with a core injury all year, adding to the already ineffective interior blocking (see wes johnson).

Put Ryan Jensen next to a healthy winters and you have a much improved offensive line.  Brandon Shell isnt Tony Boselli, but he is a good player when not playing next to a hurt RG.

Agreed more or less with this. I don’t think Winters and Shell should be so secure in their jobs but also don’t think they need to spend $80+ million to replace them. That’s why I lean towards the Jensen, Steelers’ RT/G Hubbard, and the draft to compete. I’d like to draft someone to compete with Shell that has the upside and athleticism to eventually replace Beachum. 

————————

Jackson’s weird is the best I’ve got. Crazy tools, good dude, young, productive, but that completion% is really a turnoff. I might be calling him basically the greatest offensive prospect ever if he just completed 60+% of his passes as a college passer.  

[redlichtie]

10 hours ago, HessStation said:

QB Jackson

RB Michel, McGuire

WR Watkins, Enunwa, Robinson, Kearse, Hansen, Stewart

TE Andrews, Tomlinson, Sterling (sign)

LT Beachum

LG Norwell

OC Jensen

RG Winters

RT edit: 3rd round pick (Orlando Brown?)/Shell

Did you cut Robby?

[HessStation]

1 hour ago, redlichtie said:

Did you cut Robby?

Yes just now lol

[Philc1]

5 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Agreed more or less with this. I don’t think Winters and Shell should be so secure in their jobs but also don’t think they need to spend $80+ million to replace them. That’s why I lean towards the Jensen, Steelers’ RT/G Hubbard, and the draft to compete. I’d like to draft someone to compete with Shell that has the upside and athleticism to eventually replace Beachum. 

————————

Jackson’s weird is the best I’ve got. Crazy tools, good dude, young, productive, but that completion% is really a turnoff. I might be calling him basically the greatest offensive prospect ever if he just completed 60+% of his passes as a college passer.  

60% facing top competition unlike Allen who has 56% completion percentage facing scrubs

 

Jay Cutler had 58% playing with nobodies facing SEC defenses every week

 

 

[redlichtie]

12 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Agreed more or less with this. I don’t think Winters and Shell should be so secure in their jobs but also don’t think they need to spend $80+ million to replace them. That’s why I lean towards the Jensen, Steelers’ RT/G Hubbard, and the draft to compete. I’d like to draft someone to compete with Shell that has the upside and athleticism to eventually replace Beachum. 

————————

Jackson’s weird is the best I’ve got. Crazy tools, good dude, young, productive, but that completion% is really a turnoff. I might be calling him basically the greatest offensive prospect ever if he just completed 60+% of his passes as a college passer.  

I think I read that before the end of the seasons end, and apologies for not having a link or more concrete data, someone calculated that Jackson had in the region of 26 drops, now I know every QB has dropped passes and occasionally what is tagged as a drop is a bit unfair on the receiver but even if you were to just give LJ 15 of those passes back he’s a 62.2% passer ....up there with Rosen.

i’m a Big Mason Rudolph fan but there’s no doubt he had great WR’s making some very tough catches. Jackson wasn’t benefitting from having receivers who were anywhere near as good imho and if you look at his ball placement on short underneath throws and screens as well as deep passes he routinely puts it absolutely out in front where his receiver can take it in stride. 

‘I can’t see how he ‘busts’ at the next level but i’ve been wrong.before......there was that one time in 1987 I think!?

[HessStation]

On 1/18/2018 at 3:28 PM, Philc1 said:

Lamar Jackson or Mason Rudolph at 6 please

Mason Rudolph in the 6th round please

[adb280z]

16 hours ago, Philc1 said:

60% facing top competition unlike Allen who has 56% completion percentage facing scrubs

 

Jay Cutler had 58% playing with nobodies facing SEC defenses every week

 

 

Allen also had scrubs on his team.

[RESNewYork]

Jackson just turned 21 this month. 

Isn't it hard not to love the upside?

[Larz]

according to those charts, baker mayfield should go #1

[cant wait]

1 hour ago, Larz said:

according to those charts, baker mayfield should go #1

I have no idea what to make of mayfield- the OU offense was so explosive it’s hard to get a clear read on whether it’s the player or the system in his case. will be interesting to see how he looks in the senior bowl

[Philc1]

6 hours ago, adb280z said:

Allen also had scrubs on his team.

Jackson’s offensive Line sucked while Baker Mayfield had the best o line in all of college

[PepPep]

Jackson will be there at 6. I don't know if the Jets will take him. But they should have the opportunity. 

There are 3 QB needy teams picking ahead of the Jets- Browns, Giants, and Broncos. I think Darnold to the Browns and Rosen to the Giants is a lock. I don't see any trades happening and I don't see either prospect hurting his stock for anything to change.  

I don't believe for one second Elway will go after Jackson, even if he tears up the combine, which he will. I just don't see the Broncos doing that. They will probably punt on a QB in the first before drafting Jackson. 

So Jackson will most likely be there for the Jets. And so will a lot of other great players. Will they take him? Who knows. Probably not. But I think they should.