Jump to content

Watch this - QB Josh Allen


lounap23

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 276
  • Created
  • Last Reply
3 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He'd be fun for a season or 2 till his knees get ripped up, and/or moves to WR.  Well worth a 2nd rounder if we can't get someone good in the 1st.   

Just out of curiosity, why is Jackson’s career 57% completion percentage ok in the second round based on your infamous earlier posts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Joejet said:

Just out of curiosity, why is Jackson’s career 57% completion percentage ok in the second round based on your infamous earlier posts?

Probably those nerds have done some kind of equation that says the 6th pick is more valuable than 38 or whatever the 2nd is. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Joejet said:

Just out of curiosity, why is Jackson’s career 57% completion percentage ok in the second round based on your infamous earlier posts?

I'm saying no to Allen and Jackson in the 1st.  Yes to Jackson in the 2nd, and Allen will almost certainly be gone.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The first day of the Senior Bowl is complete as the practices are done and most of the interviews are wrapping up. Here’s the latest buzz from the players' hotel.

Josh Allen of Wyoming took a big hit with his play today, as teams have been crushing him and feel he’s a long way from being NFL-ready. Tuesday was definitely not the way Allen wanted his Senior Bowl to start.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Everyone is wrong. Why does no one seem to be objective anymore? 

He's not Big Ben but he's not Hack either. He does have accuracy problems but they are streaky. He's either right on or way off. He does go for stretches where he looks great with outstanding improve and touch. Hack never did that.

Hack was always at least a little off and unsteady on his feet. Most of Allen's problems are trying to extend plays and throwing contorted and across his body. 

Hack has a serious lack of confidence and drive. Allen is the polar opposite. 

Allen reads plays much better than Hack. He doesn't seem to sense edge pressure which does remind me of Hack but if he could learn when to throw the ball away and when to tuck and run he has real potential. 

I would give Allen a 30% chance of being special. That's not high enough to be good value at 6 but I would still be hopeful if we did. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Barkus said:

Josh Allen is Hack 2.0. He is more mobile than hack but played vs inferior competition. Would def. not trade up for him, would not feel great about drafting him at 6 either. 

He’s actually the most similar to Brady Quinn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, NoBowles said:

 

Sure, there are plenty of stats that work in one direction....

And I know I am the village dolt here, but do you really think bench press for a lineman and 40 speed for a WR are the right analogy to completion percentage for a QB? I know I don't have a clue about dependent, or independent variables, or their impact on correlation, but it would seem to me that those measures are independent variables that are really only a measure of the individual player, much like say MPH for a QB, while a QB's CP would have a heck of a lot of dependent variables built in.

So your going to ruin my Tuesday and tell me the model I have been working on all damn day about birth day of month and QB success is not going to have high predictive power? Crap!

It's not a perfect analogy, no.  But the point wasn't to create the perfect analogy.  You've stated that if poor completion percentage is a deal breaker, then as completion percentage improves, so should a QBs chances of success.  My point was that there's no reason to suggest that completion percentage is a two-direction variable in this context.  As for the birthday thing, that it has no predictive success is a given, the reason you keep bringing that up as meaning something to the discussion is what's in question...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, gEYno said:

It's not a perfect analogy, no.  But the point wasn't to create the perfect analogy.  You've stated that if poor completion percentage is a deal breaker, then as completion percentage improves, so should a QBs chances of success.  My point was that there's no reason to suggest that completion percentage is a two-direction variable in this context.  As for the birthday thing, that it has no predictive success is a given, the reason you keep bringing that up as meaning something to the discussion is what's in question...

So are you now arguing that the higher the CP should not improve a QB's chance of success? Your confusing the fk out of me.

You will have to explain that one to me, I am just too dumb to comprehend.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/22/2018 at 12:10 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo NoNoNoNoNo

Relax,  he will be gone before we pick any way.   Now when he goes on to have a hall of fame career for the Giants or Broncos, we may want to revisit your incredibly articulate response ;).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

So are you now arguing that the higher the CP should not improve a QB's chance of success? Your confusing the fk out of me.

You will have to explain that one to me, I am just too dumb to comprehend.

 

If you fail five drug tests in five months, you're probably not a good employee. If you pass 5 drug tests in five months, it doesn't automatically make you a good employee, you just passed a screening that screens for people with a drug problem.

Maybe a poor analogy, but basically there is strong correlation between qbs at below 60% percent in college for their career in the nfl. There isn't necessarily a correlation between let's say college qbs who complete 62% and above and the Nfl. 

There is also a strong correlation between number of qb college starts and nfl success. In that case generally speaking, it goes both ways, where high starts are better and low starts are worse. 

In either case, there is a relevant football reason that can hypothesize why that's the case. 

Accuracy seems to be an innate ability. Large amounts of practice and experience can help improve it, but at the end of the day, a qb is what he is accuracywise with natural variation season to season.

Being a qb is hard as sh*t. It requires vast knowledge, a physical skillset, innate accuracy, and quick twitch decisionmakig. Nfl football is the hardest football out there. You want a qb to learn the mental part of the game with as much live experience as possible, hence qb college starts help. Another reason is that with a larger sample size, teams can make more informed decisions about a prospect's ability. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Untouchable said:

Meh, I don’t pretend to be some master QB evaluator.

Allen has some accuracy issues but his upside is insane. 6’5 240 with one of the strongest arms I’ve seen and Cam Newton-esque athleticism.

If the Jets end up drafting him, I’ll hope for the best.

Have there been previous examples of when QBs had so many issues but had massive upside and actually panned out??

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

If you fail five drug tests in five months, you're probably not a good employee. If you pass 5 drug tests in five months, it doesn't automatically make you a good employee, you just passed a screening that screens for people with a drug problem.

Maybe a poor analogy, but basically there is strong correlation between qbs at below 60% percent in college for their career in the nfl. There isn't necessarily a correlation between let's say college qbs who complete 62% and above and the Nfl. 

There is also a strong correlation between number of qb college starts and nfl success. In that case generally speaking, it goes both ways, where high starts are better and low starts are worse. 

In either case, there is a relevant football reason that can hypothesize why that's the case. 

Accuracy seems to be an innate ability. Large amounts of practice and experience can help improve it, but at the end of the day, a qb is what he is accuracywise with natural variation season to season.

Being a qb is hard as sh*t. It requires vast knowledge, a physical skillset, innate accuracy, and quick twitch decisionmakig. Nfl football is the hardest football out there. You want a qb to learn the mental part of the game with as much live experience as possible, hence qb college starts help. Another reason is that with a larger sample size, teams can make more informed decisions about a prospect's ability. 

 

Its a terrible analogy, but that's OK. There probably is no good analogy for an NFL QB nor Completion percentage.

Statistics are very dangerous when they are used incorrectly. 

The real key in all of this is accuracy. I am sure there is a very strong correlation between accuracy and completion percentage.

I am just not sure that you can automatically rule out a QB with all the "tools" to be an NFL QB based on one comlpletion per game. Its really my only argument. If that QB is playing with garbage WR's who drop far more catchable passes than another QB's WR's, or they are being pressured far more often than another, or they are throwing far more intermediate or long passes than another QB who gets that extra reception per game. And for the record, this is not about Allen, its about the stat geniuses who make this point as if they are on to something that real NFL execs are not onto.

I don't believe CP as a stand alone statistics is good enough for that. But again, I am the village idiot, and I don't know anything about statistics.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, NoBowles said:

Its a terrible analogy, but that's OK. There probably is no good analogy for an NFL QB nor Completion percentage.

Statistics are very dangerous when they are used incorrectly. 

The real key in all of this is accuracy. I am sure there is a very strong correlation between accuracy and completion percentage.

I am just not sure that you can automatically rule out a QB with all the "tools" to be an NFL QB based on one comlpletion per game. Its really my only argument. If that QB is playing with garbage WR's who drop far more catchable passes than another QB's WR's, or they are being pressured far more often than another, or they are throwing far more intermediate or long passes than another QB who gets that extra reception per game. And for the record, this is not about Allen, its about the stat geniuses who make this point as if they are on to something that real NFL execs are not onto.

I don't believe CP as a stand alone statistics is good enough for that. But again, I am the village idiot, and I don't know anything about statistics.

 

 

FWIW the reports out of Senior Bowl (and footage) is Josh Allen has some serious accuracy issues and basically cant hit sh*t, just like he displayed in games. 

Go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, JiF said:

FWIW the reports out of Senior Bowl (and footage) is Josh Allen has some serious accuracy issues and basically cant hit sh*t, just like he displayed in games. 

Go figure.

awesome, I don't want allen anyway, I think he is inaccurate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, HessStation said:

All Jets fan should be concerned. Allen going #1 overall was best shot at one of the top QBs. This doesn't bode well. 

I don't think that was ever a thing anyways. I get that blog writers want to make waves, but the signs that this was the case were always there, and the draft processes from Jan through March have a way of sorting this stuff out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

I don't think that was ever a thing anyways. I get that blog writers want to make waves, but the signs that this was the case were always there, and the draft processes from Jan through March have a way of sorting this stuff out.

To be fair it's easier to make this statement in hindsight of a rough start at the SB. I've followed Pauline for so long bc he's proven right a lot on so many of his insider rumors. He's had Allen as a top 10 guy up to this point from hearing the rumors and talking to teams. I don't think the hype was all created by internet bloggers 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...