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Watch this - QB Josh Allen


lounap23

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Was so hyped about this guy coming into this year. I remember listening to Scott McCloughan (sp?) talking him up on the radio in some interview. I was pumped up!!

Felt like Kevin must feel when he jets up.

This was when it still seemed like Darnold, Rosen, and Allen were AMAZING CANT MISS PROSPECTS and we still had a chance at no.1 overall pick. 

Then as the season continued, he just continued to be MEH. 

His size speed and arm talent are off the charts.

None of these things are the most important tool that a QB needs.

Accuracy, accuracy, accuracy, football IQ, and dedication are the most important. JMO

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55 minutes ago, derp said:

The highlights are absolutely unreal. If he had any semblance of consistency he'd be a lock for #1 though. There's a lot of bad that goes with that good. 

I did see some recent adjusted accuracy stats, maybe related to a Lamar Jackson thread? But when adjusting for drops, etc Allen doesn't exactly skyrocket up. Seems like he missed plenty of throws. Need to watch some on my own, but that's scary.

I do think his Senior Bowl performance will be extremely interesting.

t's super fun to dream on, and I love the idea of having a big QB with a cannon for cold weather games, but trying to fix a QB who's wildly inconsistent and mostly tools rarely if ever works. 

Also it's not like the Jets are exactly going to have their pick of QB's in this draft. To be honest - if they take one in the first round I'm going to simultaneously be excited about it and have a feeling of impending doom regardless of who it is.

I so agree.   Little bit excited.   Little bit vomit.

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2 minutes ago, KRL said:

Much respect for the research.  You provided one example to my question

Well this comes up so often, I think I can recite the numbers in my sleep.  Granted, Favre is that very rare outlier.  Someone mentioned Moon also.  But completion percentage is a function of more than just the QB so I don't consider it the be all, end all stat.  There are some very high completion guys who utterly fail in the NFL as well.  

Having said all that, I only like Allen as even a consideration if Darnold and Rosen are both gone and we didn't sign Cousins.  So I guess he's Plan D for me (maybe E if we put Mayfield ahead of him).

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2 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I mean how can you even try to make any kind of determination here. Was like watching a mass slaughter. 

Oof, that is horrible.  Does Wyoming even recruit non-QBs or is the rest of the team all walk-ons?

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1 hour ago, lounap23 said:

This thread on Josh Allen will show you the throws he can make. And the accuracy in which he makes them.  As well as his athletic ability and arm strength...  It's a small snippet but it's not hard to see the immense talent the kid has

 

https://twitter.com/Marcus_Mosher/status/951508779954266112

So his highlights.

Now show us his lowlights too.

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8 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I mean how can you even try to make any kind of determination here. Was like watching a mass slaughter. 

Yeah...........It was posted as a counterbalance to posters who tout a player by putting up a high light reel , and pretend that's what the guy played like game in, and game out.  As i said earlier in the thread, before the season, when every one was pushing the "suck for Sam" line, I actually thought Allen was going to be the top QB in the draft.  Actually watched quite a few of Wyoming games.   I was wrong.  When faced with good teams Allen folded.  

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8 minutes ago, kelly said:

do u think he'll be able to do the same thing vs NFL db's ?..  

The guy is 6'5 235, a cannon and probably runs a 4.6.  So probably.

 

It's so weird when I don't even like a prospect necessarily but here I am. Some of you guys are nuts. Just stick to whether or not he'll be able to be consistently accurate enough. 

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Hackenburg 6'4" 228 rocket arm last college year 54% 2525 yards 16 td 6 ints, 7 yards per attempt

Allen 6'5" 233 rocket arm last college year 56%  1812 yards 16 tds, 6 ints, 6.7 yards per attempt

At least Hack played in a conference with some real competition.

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25 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I sorta wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Allen is based on his completion % for two years. I get the concern as it would be my big, red flag too, but it's a little crazy how us people are already trying to bury him. Maybe he's a less desirable QB for you than others but I mean, to not want him at all on what's already a crap shoot on QBs just seems weird. 

 

It's a pretty solid rule. Along with number of starts, completion percentage weeds out a lot of non-hackers.

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26 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I sorta wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Allen is based on his completion % for two years. I get the concern as it would be my big, red flag too, but it's a little crazy how us people are already trying to bury him. Maybe he's a less desirable QB for you than others but I mean, to not want him at all on what's already a crap shoot on QBs just seems weird. 

I'm sure Darnold fans wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Darnold is based on his interceptions for two years.

And I'm sure Rosen fans wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Rosen is based on his injuries for two years.

And I'm sure Mayfield fans wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Mayfield is based on his off field issues for two years.

Etc.

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7 minutes ago, HessStation said:

The guy is 6'5 235, a cannon and probably runs a 4.6.  So probably.

 

It's so weird when I don't even like a prospect necessarily but here I am. Some of you guys are nuts. Just stick to whether or not he'll be able to be consistently accurate enough. 

We are ALL starving for a QB..

Image result for starving man pics

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44 minutes ago, HessStation said:

I sorta wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Allen is based on his completion % for two years. I get the concern as it would be my big, red flag too, but it's a little crazy how us people are already trying to bury him. Maybe he's a less desirable QB for you than others but I mean, to not want him at all on what's already a crap shoot on QBs just seems weird. 

 

But there are aspects of evaluating QB's that are NOT a crapshoot.  Everyone in the universe but the Jets front office knew Christian Hackenberg would be a massive failure.  Why?  Because inaccuracy in college pretty much never "fixes itself." 

By d*cking around at the QB position with bad picks that have an extremely low likelihood of panning out, it just keeps delaying our chances to get a franchise QB, where we can "set and forget" for the next 10 years.  Drafting Josh Allen, and the extremely high likelihood of it failing based on history, would lead to us putting all our eggs in his basket the next 2-3 years, THEN firing the GM and HC, THEN rinsing and repeating on another QB.  Because that's how these things ALWAYS work. 

It's NOT a crapshoot if your GM has even a basic understanding of how these variables work.  

I'd rather wait another year or 2 to pick the RIGHT guy, personally, rather than rushing in to take a "consensus QB" just to take one.

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1 hour ago, Pointdexter said:

I'm one of the very few that's taking a wait and see on Allen.  So many ppl have already made up their mind on him, which is bananas imo.  He made Wyoming a lot better than they were before he got there. He improved the team. That's more than you could ever say for Hackenberg so I don't fully get those lazy comparisons. 

I haven't made up my mind yet.. He's still the #3 QB I would want and maybe #4 if I could shake the Darnold reminds me of Sanchez with his terrible ball security and pitchforked him because of that.

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39 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Hackenburg 6'4" 228 rocket arm last college year 54% 2525 yards 16 td 6 ints, 7 yards per attempt

Allen 6'5" 233 rocket arm last college year 56%  1812 yards 16 tds, 6 ints, 6.7 yards per attempt

At least Hack played in a conference with some real competition.

Hack played with very talented WR's and OL... Allen did not.. Not even close.

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50 minutes ago, kelly said:

do u think he'll be able to do the same thing vs NFL db's ?..  

I think he will have better talent around him. Meaning better protection and better Wr's that can get open consistently..   And I already know he can make throws under duress and he can throw into tight windows.   

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48 minutes ago, flgreen said:

Yeah...........It was posted as a counterbalance to posters who tout a player by putting up a high light reel , and pretend that's what the guy played like game in, and game out.  As i said earlier in the thread, before the season, when every one was pushing the "suck for Sam" line, I actually thought Allen was going to be the top QB in the draft.  Actually watched quite a few of Wyoming games.   I was wrong.  When faced with good teams Allen folded.  

Did Allen fold....   I have seen many scouts talk about those games and said it was like watching College seniors playing against a pee wee league with an NFL QB.... He had no prayer.

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And let me say this clearly. I am not here advocating for Allen to be our guy.... I am saying every ones assumption of him based on his comp % has no clue what they are talking about cause they have never watched him play.  Nor have they assessed the play around him..  IN my opinion he is probably my 3rd option possibly 4th and to be honest there is something about Lamar jackson I love so he could be my fifth

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There are no sure things.  We all get that.  With the #6 pick, the Jets should be able to get a very good QB prospect, no matter who it ends up being.  If they like one way more than the others, by all means, please trade up to get him.  Otherwise, let's all just cross our fingers and toes and hope that whoever they pick pans out. 

First things first - actually draft a QB.  lol.  Then we can go from there. 

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1 hour ago, nycdan said:

You make it so easy....Do you know who this guy is?  

 
Year
1987
1988
1989
1990
Career
    Passing
Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate
1987 Southern Mississippi Ind   QB 11 79 194 40.7 1264 6.5 5.0 15 13 107.6
1988 Southern Mississippi Ind   QB 11 178 319 55.8 2271 7.1 7.4 16 5 129.0
1989 Southern Mississippi Ind   QB 11 206 381 54.1 2588 6.8 6.3 14 10 118.0
1990 Southern Mississippi Ind   QB 11 150 275 54.5 1572 5.7 5.2 7 6 106.6
Career Southern Mississippi         613 1169 52.4 7695 6.6 6.2 52 34 116.6

This was 1990.

There isn't an example since the turn of the century.  I've checked, numerous times.  Nobody has done it.  

There are some stats where history is undefeated when it comes to a successful transition into the NFL for QB's since the turn of the century and quite a few of them apply to the prospects this year: 

Run more than completes passes - Lamar Jackson

Less than 60% completion on their career - Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen

Played in the Big 12 - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph

 

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1 hour ago, HessStation said:

I sorta wish everyone would stop thinking they know what Allen is based on his completion % for two years. I get the concern as it would be my big, red flag too, but it's a little crazy how us people are already trying to bury him. Maybe he's a less desirable QB for you than others but I mean, to not want him at all on what's already a crap shoot on QBs just seems weird. 

 

What if I don’t believe it’s a crap shoot? Is it weird then? 

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Just now, lounap23 said:

Did Allen fold....   I have seen many scouts talk about those games and said it was like watching College seniors playing against a pee wee league with an NFL QB.... He had no prayer.

Yes, Allen folded.   With the exception of Iowa, and Oregon, most of Wyoming's  opponents weren't much better then HS football.

Gardner-Webb

Texas State

Utah St

Colorado St

Etc.   Not to many NCAA powerhouses there 

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3 minutes ago, ChuckkieB said:

There are no sure things.  We all get that.  With the #6 pick, the Jets should be able to get a very good QB prospect, no matter who it ends up being.  If they like one way more than the others, by all means, please trade up to get him.  Otherwise, let's all just cross our fingers and toes and hope that whoever they pick pans out. 

First things first - actually draft a QB.  lol.  Then we can go from there. 

NOW this I agree with 100%.... No matter if it's Allen, Darnold, Jackson, Rudolph, Mayfield, Rosen... Whoever just draft a QB...And lets finally get our Franchise guy!!

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4 minutes ago, JiF said:

This was 1990.

There isn't an example since the turn of the century.  I've checked, numerous times.  Nobody has done it.  

There are some stats where history is undefeated when it comes to a successful transition into the NFL for QB's since the turn of the century and quite a few of them apply to the prospects this year: 

Run more than completes passes - Lamar Jackson

Less than 60% completion on their career - Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen

Played in the Big 12 - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph

 

Matthew Stafford completed 57.1% of his passes at Georgia.  Does he count?

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

I watched Allen in 5-6 games this year against teams similar to and better than Wyoming.  There is
no denying his textbook size & tools.  He makes throws that make you drool and he has a frame that
projects to be like Newton & Roethlisberger.  But for someone who is supposed to be a top QB prospect
he never lifted his team against mediocre competition and when he stepped up in class (Iowa & Oregon)
he was overwhelmed.  He could be successful on the pro level but who was the last QB whose accuracy
and completion percentage improved going against the best in the world.  I'm totally petrified of
him as a prospect 

saw him play in person vs. Nebraska - was not impressed.

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4 minutes ago, JiF said:

This was 1990.

There isn't an example since the turn of the century.  I've checked, numerous times.  Nobody has done it.  

There are some stats where history is undefeated when it comes to a successful transition into the NFL for QB's since the turn of the century and quite a few of them apply to the prospects this year: 

Run more than completes passes - Lamar Jackson

Less than 60% completion on their career - Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen

Played in the Big 12 - Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph

 

There is some basis of evaluation for every stat. But, they should not be taken as gospel, and one should look for reasons for stats, not just the stat itself. And I understand the completion quotient and his conference.

But, if I were to believe the completion percentage, and its predictor of success, would I not also then have to believe that those with the highest completion percentage, should then have the best chance to succeeding? And I know we know that is not the case. 

People that get hung up on or a few stats and do not use more are doomed to be wrong often and miss out.

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

Much respect for the research.  You provided one example to my question

But of the flipside does that mean that guys like Luke Falk are coveted because of his comp % in college. Its not just the completion % , there's a whole lot more that needs to be factored in. People are dismissing this guy solely on the fact he didn't have numbers , look at the team he had surrounding him and then ask the question what would Darnold, Rosen , Mayfield do on that same team.

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