Off-season Plan by Me

[win4ever]

This would be my course of action, albeit there are plenty of other great choices and decisions to make.   

Free Agency:  

Re-Sign Demario Davis:  Just for the sake of continuity, seemed to fit Bowles system better than expected.  I would move on, but I think his price is going to be cheaper than expected.

Re-Sign Morris Claiborne:  Injury risk, but we have NOTHING at CB, so I want to keep him on a deal that at-least gives us short term ability.  

Re-Sign ASJ

(Free Agency):

Let Wilkerson go:  He's basically played a replacement level lately, and there is no point in holding onto him at this point.  He seems like he threw it in after the contract.  

Let McCown go:  There in no point in signing him, because it's cap space that can go elsewhere.  We don't need him back to lead us to another 5 win season.  Go cheap as the backup.  

Conditional:  Release Buster Skrine, take the 2.5 mil dead cap hit.  Although I only do it if I can replace him with a specific guy I want.

Sign:

Ezekiel Ansah:  Still young enough (if you believe his birth certificate).  He has a lot of issues with his knees, but I think they have a chance to get better away from the turf, although at this point the differences are minuscule.  He's provides edge rusher ability that we lack, and pair him with Williams to form a nice duo on the edge.  

Star Lotulelei:  He's not great, but we can't just pick up all studs because other teams have cap space too.  I think he's a candidate to improve in the right situation.  I've seen some Sheldon Richardson reunions, but I think it's unlikely because he has mentioned numerous times about chasing the top dollar.  I like Star's talent, and I think paired with Williams/Ansah, he could thrive.  

Kyle Fuller:  Once again, not the best, but someone that I think will have better value moving forward.  He's someone with excellent talent, but hasn't produced to the level expected.  I think being the No. 2 with Claiborne will help him out.  

Aaron Colvin:  I loved Colvin in the draft, I thought he was one of the better corner backs in the draft, but he fell because of a torn ACL.  I advocated picking him even with the injury because he was a borderline first round talent.  We picked Dexter McDougle before Colvin.  I think he's an excellent slot corner, and this is the guy that I go after with Skrine off the team.   

Weston Richburg:  Yes, he has a concussion history, but tackling dummy might be better than Wesley Johnson.  

Nate Soldier:  I want a tackle, so I can move Beachum to RT.  I'm not sold on Tackle, but I don't know where else to go that is even decent.  

Jerick McKinnon:  He's not a great runner, but we have Powell as an under-rated runner.  McKinnon is great at catching the ball from the backfield, and for the young QB we pick in this scenario, I think he would be a cheap option.

-----------------

Soldier/Ansah should cost top level money.  Fuller/Colvin at Tier 3 money.  Star/Richburg at lesser money.  It's not full of studs, but I think it could be a talented team with some injury luck.  Soldier/Carpernter/Richburg/Shell/Beachum is a decent line.  I move Shell inside because I think he has better upside than Dozier, but I'm fine with leaving Dozier in there as well and having Shell as the backup.   

The defensive line has Ansah/Star/Simon/Williams (assuming 4-3, take out Simon if 3-4) with Lee/Davis/Jenkins/Mauldin at LB with the usual backups.  The safety duo, coupled with Claiborne/Fuller/Colvin.  It provides time to see if we can get anything from Clark/Jones/Robinson.  

This isn't a great team, but I don't think we'll be a great team anyway.  

Draft:

1.  QB:  Give me anyone of Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield/Jackson and if you break my arm back enough....Allen.  You can't ignore QB or try to get cute with Lulletta or White.  Take one of the top guys and hope to develop him.    

2.  Equ. St. Brown:  I would change my pick if say Orlando Brown or a top OL prospect slides, but I think it's unlikely and too hard to predict this far ahead.  I think Brown is a great prospect, who would fit in extremely well with Kearse/Anderson and whatever Enunwa can provide.  

2.  Will Hernandez:  He's a guard and he was pretty hyped at the Senior Bowl, but I would take him because we can't just ignore the OL in the higher rounds.  I think he's a great guard prospect that can step in when Carpenter gets hurt.  

3.  Jaire Alexander:  This might be hoping a bit too much that he drops here but with Claiborne/Fuller injury history, have to pick a high upside guy to develop.

4.  A pick that really depends on the St. Brown pick.  If Brown is the pick, the Rashad Penny here as the pick for the running back.  If say an OT drops to that second pick, I pick the OT, and pivot here to Dante Pettis (solves return issues) or DJ Chark- mainly because he also solves the return issues.  

After that it's a crap shoot, although already is one.

I want to pair the young QB with a veteran line, and catching weapons.  If Brown is selected, then Brown/Kearse/Anderson is a young nucleus with good potential.  If it's Chark/Pettis, then it's not quite as dangerous but we will have two young offensive lineman waiting in the wings to take over.    

 

 

[Patriot Killa]

Very much like your draft picks ... don’t like most of your FA signings at all though.

Ansah is a 29 year old injury prone 4-3 defender. He has missed 78% of his career and has injured his hamstring, knees, abdomen, ankles and legs.

McKinnon ..I wouldn’t spend money on him simply because we can get ourselves a 3 down work horse in the draft and match him with the combo of Powell and McGuire. Not much point to this signing if you ask me. Powell is 30 but he is a rare 30. Not too much tread and he will continue to be used as a rotation back so no reason to just get rid of him.

Do not want any part of Nate Solder. He’s very old and benefits from non-holding calls being he is a Patriot O-lineman. Beachum has not been that bad and neither has Shell. They can stand to be our guys one more year.(especially Shell being that this will be his second year starting the entire year and it may be a huge step for him)

Plus it seems you have 3 Tackles in your starting line up. Solder plays LT, Beachum plays LT and Shell plays RT. Where is Brian Winters? He is our RG. 

Colvin and Fuller are fine pick ups to me. Nothing to say about those.

Weston Richberg? Sign me up. Anything is better than Johnson.

Star? .. I mean I wouldn’t hate the signing. We WILL need someone to start in the place of Wilkerson once he is cut. I’d be alright with this st a good price.

[Philc1]

Congrats, best mock I’ve seen by far

[win4ever]

19 hours ago, Patriot Killa said:

Very much like your draft picks ... don’t like most of your FA signings at all though.

Ansah is a 29 year old injury prone 4-3 defender. He has missed 78% of his career and has injured his hamstring, knees, abdomen, ankles and legs.

McKinnon ..I wouldn’t spend money on him simply because we can get ourselves a 3 down work horse in the draft and match him with the combo of Powell and McGuire. Not much point to this signing if you ask me. Powell is 30 but he is a rare 30. Not too much tread and he will continue to be used as a rotation back so no reason to just get rid of him.

Do not want any part of Nate Solder. He’s very old and benefits from non-holding calls being he is a Patriot O-lineman. Beachum has not been that bad and neither has Shell. They can stand to be our guys one more year.(especially Shell being that this will be his second year starting the entire year and it may be a huge step for him)

Plus it seems you have 3 Tackles in your starting line up. Solder plays LT, Beachum plays LT and Shell plays RT. Where is Brian Winters? He is our RG. 

Colvin and Fuller are fine pick ups to me. Nothing to say about those.

Weston Richberg? Sign me up. Anything is better than Johnson.

Star? .. I mean I wouldn’t hate the signing. We WILL need someone to start in the place of Wilkerson once he is cut. I’d be alright with this st a good price.

Thanks.  

While I agree that it's not perfect but it's because the choices are limited though.  

Ansah- I think he's the highest upside guy in free agency for a defensive end.  With our situation, we're gonna have to take some chances rather than just go for the safe option because safe/great players can pretty much pick their team and we don't have the most appealing team.  Once we get rid of Wilkerson, he fits right in, while moving Williams to the edge as well.  

McKinnon- I think he'll be cheap for a RB though because he's not really established.  I don't mind getting a mid round RB, I think I picked Penny in the middle rounds.  He was my last add but I do think he's going to be under-rated and a decent guy with kick returns. 

Soldier is mainly because I couldn't find one guy that I thought would come here that could be a stud.  Who else would you pick?  I liked James but I believe his option was picked up.  I would bench or move Shell to guard to be honest.  I actually don't think he's that good.  He has potential but he gets killed when teams run stunts.  I guess bench Shell until some injury comes along because I think he's overrated.  

I think McKinnon is just a price based thing, since it's not a need.  I just thought he was a under-rated guy.  I think Ansah is a gamble, but he could really pay off playing opposite of Leo.  Solder is essentially just the one that I thought could be decent out of bunch, mainly because I couldn't find guys that had potential at T.   If Shell could improve, sure, but I'm not sure.  

I think we have a ton of money, but need to take some risks.  

 

 

4 hours ago, Philc1 said:

Congrats, best mock I’ve seen by far

Thanks.  

[CrazyCarl40]

I don’t think that there should even be a conditional release of Skrine. Cut the worst player on the team and never look back. Period. 

[Paradis]

I'll take it! 

I'm not feeling Star + Ansah but whatevs. Colvin, and your Oline reinforcements work for me. Also, I'm probably member #1 of the McKinnon fan club. I was the only guy falling head over heels for the Georgia Southern running back years ago... he's hasn't ran with the power I expected, but I still want him.

 Plus QB and EQ... yup. I'm all in there. 

 

[#27TheDominator]

Seems okay to me.  I'm not a guy that has watched the all-22, but that won't stop me from commenting. 

On the D-line, I think Simon is out.  He did not play a snap last year.  Pennel is the guy that got some run with McClendon.  They also played Xavier Cooper and Ed Stinson who I guess are more 3-4DE/4-3DT.  I'm not sure any of those guys are under contract, but they all got run ahead of Simon.  

On the OLine, I think that Beachum is kind of undersized and soft for RT.  He certainly isn't a mauler RT, but I guess an upgrade is an upgrade.  He might be adequate for zone blocking.  I think Dozier is out.  I believe he is an UFA and has not gotten any run despite trash ahead of him. I would expect them to make an offer to Qvale as a backup and in your scenario I would certainly dump Ijalana's salary.  I don't know that I'm in love with Solder, but I'm not sure why @Patriot Killa said he was very old.  He is 29, and only has like a year on Beachum.  Totally agree on Shell.  He is a guy I think the board has monumentally overrated and they gave him help on the outside a ton anyway.   A move to guard and/or the role that Qvale has filled (jack-of-all-backups) makes sense. 

I was in favor of bringing ASJ back, but having heard his alleged price I'm pretty much a hard pass at this point.

[win4ever]

On 1/30/2018 at 6:05 AM, CrazyCarl40 said:

I don’t think that there should even be a conditional release of Skrine. Cut the worst player on the team and never look back. Period. 

I would move on from Skrine, but I don't want to create a slot CB position opening without actually knowing the options.  If Clark/Jones show anything, then I would have moved on more easily.  

I don't like Burris as an option, he's too slow to be a slot guy.  Cutting him does save 6 million with 2.5 dead money, but need to see which guys are actually available to be picked up.  

On 1/30/2018 at 12:00 PM, Paradis said:

I'll take it! 

I'm not feeling Star + Ansah but whatevs. Colvin, and your Oline reinforcements work for me. Also, I'm probably member #1 of the McKinnon fan club. I was the only guy falling head over heels for the Georgia Southern running back years ago... he's hasn't ran with the power I expected, but I still want him.

 Plus QB and EQ... yup. I'm all in there. 

 

I like Star mainly because I think he's under-rated because he's not the sexy stats guy like Sheldon.  To be perfectly honest, I wanted Star over Sheldon in the draft (I didn't want Sheldon either but I thought Star was a better prospect) so there is some leftover draft love I guess.  I think he's solid guy that won't break the bank at all.  I like trying to pick up guys sort of like post hype prospects in baseball.   

Ansah is essentially Wilkerson replacement, but we got nothing from him the last two years.  I don't know how much I buy into the DeMarcus Lawrence resurgence to over-pay him.  Don't get me wrong, I would take him in a minute but he's going to get close to Von Miller money coming off this season at his age, and I'm not sure I buy into him with injury history as well.  Ansah is discounted because of the injury, so it's less of a risk and I think both are similarly talented.  

I loved Colvin, still don't understand why we picked McDougle over him.  If we have any shot at him, I'd kick Skrine to the curb.  

When I wrote this, I thought McKinnon would be somewhat hidden, but I was on the Titans board and they love him too.  I think the Colts' fans mentioned him too, so now I'm not sure if he'll be cheap.  I think he's a great fit.  

I'm surprised by EQ dropping in rankings, heard 3rd-4th round range a couple of days ago.  I would rather have him than say Zay Jones or even Ju-Ju from last year for reference.  I think his ceiling is extremely high, and he's not a total project like Stephen Hill.  

On 1/30/2018 at 12:42 PM, #27TheDominator said:

Seems okay to me.  I'm not a guy that has watched the all-22, but that won't stop me from commenting. 

On the D-line, I think Simon is out.  He did not play a snap last year.  Pennel is the guy that got some run with McClendon.  They also played Xavier Cooper and Ed Stinson who I guess are more 3-4DE/4-3DT.  I'm not sure any of those guys are under contract, but they all got run ahead of Simon.  

On the OLine, I think that Beachum is kind of undersized and soft for RT.  He certainly isn't a mauler RT, but I guess an upgrade is an upgrade.  He might be adequate for zone blocking.  I think Dozier is out.  I believe he is an UFA and has not gotten any run despite trash ahead of him. I would expect them to make an offer to Qvale as a backup and in your scenario I would certainly dump Ijalana's salary.  I don't know that I'm in love with Solder, but I'm not sure why @Patriot Killa said he was very old.  He is 29, and only has like a year on Beachum.  Totally agree on Shell.  He is a guy I think the board has monumentally overrated and they gave him help on the outside a ton anyway.   A move to guard and/or the role that Qvale has filled (jack-of-all-backups) makes sense. 

I was in favor of bringing ASJ back, but having heard his alleged price I'm pretty much a hard pass at this point.

I'm not sure what they are doing at DT, but I think Star could be a decent signing there, especially if we sign a DE.  

Yeah Solder isn't a great option, but we don't have too many studs hitting the market.  At this point, Solder would help for a couple of years at least, and I believe in providing veteran support on the OL for developing QBs.  If we sign a QB in free agency, then go through the draft for OL because the veteran QB is better at setting protections and reading defenses, thus it evens out a bit.    

I have no idea why Shell is rated so high, he gets beat far too often to be reliable.  He definitely shows potential and he does hold his own at times, but stunts absolutely befuddle him.  Sometimes I wonder if the team is even coached on defense.  

I like ASJ, but his price is going to be important.  I thought Trey Burton would be a sneaky option but his SB pass probably spiked up his pay.  

[#27TheDominator]

FWIW, I think Clark and Jones are much more the long athletic outside CB types.  I agree about Burris being a bad fit for the slot, but IMO he is kind of a bad fit anywhere.  I would suggest Darryl Roberts for slot.  He was like the #2 SPARQ CB coming out behind Byron Jones and his cone times were among the best (albeit based on Marshall pro-day times).  Seems like a good choice for the slot.  He is under contract cheap and played 98+% of the snaps the Atlanta game that Skrine missed.  I'm not sure how much of that was in the slot, but... OTOH, his usage decreased down the stretch as he went from 80-90+% of the snaps weeks 7-10 to 30-40% weeks 11-13 to basically 0% the last 3 weeks.  I'm not sure why, he still played specials and Skrine played 100% of the defensive snaps week 16.